War doesn't break out for five-six years. Who's in the best shape?

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Carl Schwamberger
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Re: War doesn't break out for five-six years. Who's in the best shape?

#151

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 16 Jan 2021, 20:34

T. A. Gardner wrote:
16 Jan 2021, 08:02
...
In 1935-ish, the Germans led the world in nuclear physics, the US wasn't even in the race. France, like Britain, Italy or Japan were all small players. By 1940, the US had become the world leader simply because fascism in Germany and Italy made all the top physicists flee. While everybody knew about Uranium and that it had some potential value, in the scenario we're looking at it wouldn't be nearly as high a priority as having a stable oil supply near home.

At least that's the way I see it.
Up until the French collapse it appears they have a lead. Aside from the Curie Institute being a leader in practical application, vs academic research, a portion of the refugee physicists had landed in France. Those moved on to the UK and US with the June disaster. The refugees included some Hungarians as well as Germans, Czechs, Italians, & one or two the nationalities.

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nuyt
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Re: War doesn't break out for five-six years. Who's in the best shape?

#152

Post by nuyt » 22 Jan 2021, 22:39

Who will be in best shape by 1945 also depends on one's country's allies.

1. So I would say the US remain more or less neutral, with positive public opinion and business interests divided over several other powers, like the UK, a peaceful Nazi-Germany, rump-China, Soviet Union, while France still attracts the more cultural and literary savvy crowd. The US are able to maintain good relations with most countries, except Imperial Japan.

2.The UK will struggle in various parts of the Empire: Egypt, India, South Africa and Iraq and all others are stirring up trouble, hoping to see independent nations they can do business with. Some other colonial powers are friendly, like the Netherlands and France. In Europe, Chamberlain still maintains an appeasing attitude and without a war in 1939, Winston retires and goes painting in Câmara de Lobos on Madeira Island. Communism is a threat on the streets of London and Manchester and so is the Soviet Union, a powerful country Britain fears more than Nazi Germany that has been barking, not biting.

3. Italy is still punching above its weight, if it's is still around by 1945.

4. Japan has expanded all it can in China and looks further, weighing the options. It has been able to invest a bit in and buy oil from companies in the NEI, but more will mean war with the UK and NL - and most likely with the US. The Soviets are very dangerous and all efforts are turned into the defenses to the North...Japan prepares for war with the SU and allies itself with Germany.

5. Nazi-Germany, not scarred by war and war crimes, divides public opinion everywhere, but is able to do deals. It is dominating SE Europe by now and possibly Italy. IF its leadership (that is not getting younger) acts rational (but it might not as we know), Berlin may look to work with France in a strategic partnership. Germany would have to give up Alsace-Lorraine and make lots of offer to France to lure it over, but it might work, especially if France turns right politically and starts focusing on its colonies. Germany in return is awarded with peace in the West. Note the UK is appeasing under Chamberlain and his peacetime successors, who are also distracted by unrest in the colonies and need peace in Europe. Germany can thus focus on the the now extremely dangerous Soviets, to the East.

6. France thus focuses on its colonies, but it has a settler strategy, unlike the UK and the NL. Many Frenchmen have moved into North Africa and infrastructure and other investments have been pouring in as well. Northwest Africa has become a second France, attracting also immigrants from Italy, Spain, Portugal and Eastern Europe.

Thus a new alliance network takes shape with Nazi Germany allied with France in the west and Japan in the East. It still has Poland as a buffer and in case of war with the SU, Poland will fight alongside Germany. France will remain neutral as long as possible in case of this war, but will the UK?

The UK sees an all powerful Soviet Empire looming large in the Caucasus, Iran, close to India and stirring up communist insurgencies at home and abroad. Will it join Germany and Japan in case of war with the Soviets? Will a maritime warrior return from Madeira in case the Russians attack with all their might through Mongolia, Manchuria, Persia, Poland, the Baltics, Romania, with columns of T34s thundering towards new natural borders along the Baltic, the Oder, the Carpathians, the Persian Gulf and Port Arthur, capable of taking heavy losses and still advancing, breaking the first lines of defense of the Poles, the IJA and it Manchurian allies as well as some forwardly deployed SS Panzer Divisions equipped with just the Pzkw IV?


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