Could Italy have won the war in 1940?

[Andy H]

So, do you agree with myh idea that Italy could have won a limited war, one where there is not formal agreement with Germany and where the aim is to grab what can be gained in 100 days and then negotiate a withdrawal when the UK is on the ropes?

Hi AnchorSteam

Basically, No.

Your limiting the boundaries of reality to a point beyond plausibility.
Italy had the ability to make limited territorial gains and hold them for a limited time period.
So they could win a battle but not the war full stop.

Regards

Andy H

[History Learner]

Fascinating stuff, and I didn't get back to this earlier because I assumed it was a dead thread.

So, do you agree with myh idea that Italy could have won a limited war, one where there is not formal agreement with Germany and where the aim is to grab what can be gained in 100 days and then negotiate a withdrawal when the UK is on the ropes?

I don't see why it couldn't work, if Mussolini had at the least planned better rather than basically doing the WWII version of a YOLO. If by August Malta has fallen, the British position in Egypt appears in collapse and the Battle of Britain appears to be leaning against them, it strikes me as exceedingly likely the British will withdraw. That Franco might smell the blood in the water and jump in to grab Gibraltar also strikes me as a reinforcing factor here.

[AnchorSteam]

Fascinating stuff, and I didn't get back to this earlier because I assumed it was a dead thread.

So, do you agree with myh idea that Italy could have won a limited war, one where there is not formal agreement with Germany and where the aim is to grab what can be gained in 100 days and then negotiate a withdrawal when the UK is on the ropes?

I don't see why it couldn't work, if Mussolini had at the least planned better rather than basically doing the WWII version of a YOLO. If by August Malta has fallen, the British position in Egypt appears in collapse and the the Battle of Britain leaning against them, it strikes me as exceedingly likely the British will withdraw. That Franco might smell the blood in the water and jump in to grab Gibraltar also strikes me as a reinforcing factor here.

Wow... I hadn't even thought of that last item.
I hadn't even considered the idea that Franco would dare to take a shot at it, given how he slammed the door on everyone that tried to get him into the war. I have also started to sour on the idea of taking and even holding Malta, just a little.

Given that the most lucrative goal is a 50% interest in the Suez Canal received as a Reparation, would it be entirely in Italy's future interests to remove the RN's only base in the Central Med?
Minor point, maybe this thread has heightened my nit-pickery to a ridiculous level. I wonder how that could possibly have happened....

Anyway, thank you! That's actually the most positive feed-back I have received on this thread since I started it.

[Peter89]

Franco would not enter the war unless victory was assured, meaning in 1940, the British are defeated. Spain's demands of POL, grain, etc. would not be covered by Germany, that was having trouble to meet its own demands in these fields.

The British were not keen to make a compromise with the Axis. They had to suffer a crippling defeat, not temporarily losing control in minor skirmishes.

In reality, Brits tried to appease the Italians to stay out of the war, and let their merchant shipping roam relatively freely. Italy was not ready for war in June 1940 and it would have been more wise to wait and prepare for another British off-balance situation, which came in the spring of 1941.

[Futurist]

What does POL stand for?

[Peter89]

What does POL stand for?

Petrol, Oil, Lubricants

[Futurist]

What was the use of lubricants?

[AnchorSteam]

.....

Seriously?

[nuyt]

Italy was not ready for war in June 1940 and it would have been more wise to wait and prepare for another British off-balance situation, which came in the spring of 1941.

So Italy could have won the war in 1940 by staying out of it that year!

[Futurist]

.....

Seriously?

Yes. Even stupid questions deserve to be answered. I know that lubricants are used for sex, but I doubt that this is why they were used here.

[Thumpalumpacus]

.....

Seriously?

Yes. Even stupid questions deserve to be answered. I know that lubricants are used for sex, but I doubt that this is why they were used here.

Machinery. Pistons don't slide, recoil-absorbers don't stand up, ball-bearings don't bear up, without lubricants.

Is it turning? It needs lubrication. Is it sliding? It needs lubrication. Is it absorbing shock? It usually needs lubrication.

It's that vital.

[Futurist]

.....

Seriously?

Yes. Even stupid questions deserve to be answered. I know that lubricants are used for sex, but I doubt that this is why they were used here.

Machinery. Pistons don't slide, recoil-absorbers don't stand up, ball-bearings don't bear up, without lubricants.

Is it turning? It needs lubrication. Is it sliding? It needs lubrication. Is it absorbing shock? It usually needs lubrication.

It's that vital.

Thank you. See, this is why I am a total n00b.

[Peter89]

.....

Seriously?

Yes. Even stupid questions deserve to be answered. I know that lubricants are used for sex, but I doubt that this is why they were used here.

Machinery. Pistons don't slide, recoil-absorbers don't stand up, ball-bearings don't bear up, without lubricants.

Is it turning? It needs lubrication. Is it sliding? It needs lubrication. Is it absorbing shock? It usually needs lubrication.

It's that vital.

Thank you. See, this is why I am a total n00b.

Aviation used a lot of lubricants. Schmierstoff is the German word for it. They usually used the Shell products called the ASM-Serie (Aero-Shell-Mittel), with the commercial name Intava.
There were different type of aviation fuels and the matching lubricants.

Typ A 3 (80 octane)
Typ B 4 (87 octane)
Typ C 3 (100 octane)

The most common lubricant I see in technical sheets is the Rotring, or Intava 100. But there were also others, like:
Intava 60 (Weißring)
Intava 80 (Grauring)
Intava 100 (Rotring)
Intava 120 (Grünring)
Intava 140 (Blauring)

Also, they used Shell oils in aviation, like the Shell AB 11, and lubricant greases and pastes, like the VDM-Serie (42: Spezialfett, 43: graphite paste).

For example, the Fw-200 C-3 carried 8060l fuel, 570l lubricant oil and 27l oil when fully tanked. The Spanish gained some experience with crash-landed and formally serviced Condors, so they employed a few even after the war.

[Futurist]

Thank you.

[AnchorSteam]

.....

Seriously?

Yes. Even stupid questions deserve to be answered. I know that lubricants are used for sex, but I doubt that this is why they were used here.

Sorry, I try not to be that way, but...I wasn't ready for that.

It made me remember that some people are amazed when the engine of their car catches fire, and it turns out that they never went in for an oil change.
Didn't know they had to, nobody ever told them.
The world is a complicated place....