If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targets?

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Carl Schwamberger
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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 19 Oct 2021 02:04

Rereading this thread caused me to consider this alternative Russian regime might be so wrapped up in maintaining internal security they don't have time to take effective action on expansion. Just retaining control of the Ukraine & other territories close to home might be the challenge.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by T. A. Gardner » 19 Oct 2021 03:19

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
19 Oct 2021 02:04
Rereading this thread caused me to consider this alternative Russian regime might be so wrapped up in maintaining internal security they don't have time to take effective action on expansion. Just retaining control of the Ukraine & other territories close to home might be the challenge.
I'd agree on that. Most likely they'd be focused on internal consolidation and eradication of "undesirable" groups within the country. They might also encourage foreign investment in industry just to push ahead and be able to militarize as well as strengthen the economy--so long as they got a say in how those industries operated.
An example of this might be Ford. Henry Ford was fairly fascist in many of his views and did open a factory in Russia after the revolution. Here he's likely to do the same thing. Maybe the Russian fascist government recognizes this as a potential to bring a "people's car" to Russia while currying favor with oil producers to increase production there.
Italian cooperation with Mussolini is still highly likely too but with more potential and cooperation and less secrecy.

If the government adopted a statist-Capitalist model for the economy, much as Germany and Italy did, then it's likely that many capitalists and industrialists would risk some venture capital into getting something going in the new Russia. They likely wouldn't care too much if the government was telling them what to make or build so long as they were allowed to profit from it.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by nuyt » 19 Oct 2021 10:03

Also don't rule out religion. A right wing Russia no doubt is heavily religious - Russian orthodox. That would open up some other interesting alliances, for instance with Greece. The Russians might help the Greeks in their war in Anatolia and this may be a game changer. A Greek-Russian offensive against the Turks could mean an orthodox Constantinople again, with free access for Russian's ships. Meanwhile Western Turkey and Cyprus become part of the new Greek state, with Russian backing and presence. This may be one of the new Russian leaders prime goals! Think of warm water naval bases in Scutari, Smyrna, Cyprus and Patras.
Next on the list will be the saving of orthodox in the Middle East. Expect heavy Russian meddling in Syria, Lebanon and Egypt :D
And maybe some aid to Abessynia...
And come the mid 1930s it will be Russia helping Franco win the SCW :lol:

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 21 Oct 2021 16:47

If the government adopted a statist-Capitalist model for the economy, much as Germany and Italy did, then it's likely that many capitalists and industrialists would risk some venture capital into getting something going in the new Russia. They likely wouldn't care too much if the government was telling them what to make or build so long as they were allowed to profit from it.
The elder Koch does not leave the Russian oil business since Stalin does not take over.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by T. A. Gardner » 26 Oct 2021 22:11

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
21 Oct 2021 16:47
If the government adopted a statist-Capitalist model for the economy, much as Germany and Italy did, then it's likely that many capitalists and industrialists would risk some venture capital into getting something going in the new Russia. They likely wouldn't care too much if the government was telling them what to make or build so long as they were allowed to profit from it.
The elder Koch does not leave the Russian oil business since Stalin does not take over.
I'm sure companies like Texaco and Esso would have been more than willing to step in and drill everywhere for oil in Russia if they were getting a cut of the profit.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 26 Oct 2021 23:14

Standard Oil was the heavy weight in this. Globally they were partners with about everyone everywhere. In fact is was difficult to conduct oil business anywhere without Standard appearing as your 'partner' in some fashion. The Rockfellers also controlled Chase Bank, which controlled a lot of oil money, investment, and decisions.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 07 Nov 2021 21:37

History Learner wrote:
13 Jan 2021 00:58
Recovering 1914 borders is a must, I would imagine, as would gaining the traditional Russian goals of a warm water port along with control of the Straits. To that end, Turkey, Iran and Manchuria seem obvious goals. Dominion over Korea, Bulgaria, and others also seems likely; perhaps a war of the "Wolves and Whales" i.e. Germany and Russia vs the Anglo-Japanese.
Thinking about this, I wonder: If a Fascist Russia will ever acquire Persia/Iran as an ally/proxy, might the Persians be willing to allow the Russians to build a naval base in the Gulf of Hormuz? Of course, such a thought might be terrifying to the British, especially once the Persian Gulf's extremely vast oil reserves will be discovered. This would give Russia the ability to try blocking the Strait of Hormuz through military force, after all, thus shutting down the export of additional oil from the Persian Gulf until this hypothetical Russian naval blockade will be defeated, likely by the British and/or the Americans.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 07 Nov 2021 21:40

nuyt wrote:
19 Oct 2021 10:03
Also don't rule out religion. A right wing Russia no doubt is heavily religious - Russian orthodox. That would open up some other interesting alliances, for instance with Greece. The Russians might help the Greeks in their war in Anatolia and this may be a game changer. A Greek-Russian offensive against the Turks could mean an orthodox Constantinople again, with free access for Russian's ships. Meanwhile Western Turkey and Cyprus become part of the new Greek state, with Russian backing and presence. This may be one of the new Russian leaders prime goals! Think of warm water naval bases in Scutari, Smyrna, Cyprus and Patras.
Next on the list will be the saving of orthodox in the Middle East. Expect heavy Russian meddling in Syria, Lebanon and Egypt :D
And maybe some aid to Abessynia...
And come the mid 1930s it will be Russia helping Franco win the SCW :lol:
What happens to the Anatolian interior? Does it get ethnically cleansed? Or is it turned into a type of reservation for Anatolia's Turkish population? Either way, it would sound absolutely horrible! :(

I wonder if Russia will insist on a land bridge to Constantinople through northern Anatolia. This could very likely be done while annexing relatively small numbers of Turks, who can be ethnically cleansed by the Russians in any case, but the logistics of maintaining this over the long(er)-run could be problematic, especially if the Russian troops in charge of this will want to go back home. Frequent troop rotations for Russian troops in Anatolia, perhaps?

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 07 Nov 2021 21:40

T. A. Gardner wrote:
19 Oct 2021 03:19
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
19 Oct 2021 02:04
Rereading this thread caused me to consider this alternative Russian regime might be so wrapped up in maintaining internal security they don't have time to take effective action on expansion. Just retaining control of the Ukraine & other territories close to home might be the challenge.
I'd agree on that. Most likely they'd be focused on internal consolidation and eradication of "undesirable" groups within the country. They might also encourage foreign investment in industry just to push ahead and be able to militarize as well as strengthen the economy--so long as they got a say in how those industries operated.
An example of this might be Ford. Henry Ford was fairly fascist in many of his views and did open a factory in Russia after the revolution. Here he's likely to do the same thing. Maybe the Russian fascist government recognizes this as a potential to bring a "people's car" to Russia while currying favor with oil producers to increase production there.
Italian cooperation with Mussolini is still highly likely too but with more potential and cooperation and less secrecy.

If the government adopted a statist-Capitalist model for the economy, much as Germany and Italy did, then it's likely that many capitalists and industrialists would risk some venture capital into getting something going in the new Russia. They likely wouldn't care too much if the government was telling them what to make or build so long as they were allowed to profit from it.
Any chance of something like the Autobahn system being constructed in a Fascist Russia?

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 07 Nov 2021 21:43

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
19 Oct 2021 02:04
Rereading this thread caused me to consider this alternative Russian regime might be so wrapped up in maintaining internal security they don't have time to take effective action on expansion. Just retaining control of the Ukraine & other territories close to home might be the challenge.
Ukrainians don't appear to have been anywhere near as good of fighters as, say, Poles, Balts, and Finns were during this time, though. Though the Ukrainian issue would be easier for Russia to handle if pragmatic White Russian leaders decide to allow Poland to expand further to the east, up to the point where Russia loses everything west of Kiev, but probably not Kiev itself, to a nominally independent Polish-puppet Ukrainian state. This should make the Russification of the remainder of Ukraine much easier, no doubt. Especially if a lot of Great Russian colonists and settlers are brought into Ukraine, voluntarily and/or forcibly. I'm talking in the millions here, of course.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by T. A. Gardner » 08 Nov 2021 01:04

Futurist wrote:
07 Nov 2021 21:40
Any chance of something like the Autobahn system being constructed in a Fascist Russia?
I'd think the chances are slim compared to a much more robust rail network that is in private hands but beholden to the government at the same time. Think public-private monopoly like say Bell Telephone was.
Having someone like Vanderbilt come in and build a rail network across Russia and into China would have opened the country to development much sooner.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 08 Nov 2021 03:28

T. A. Gardner wrote:
08 Nov 2021 01:04
Futurist wrote:
07 Nov 2021 21:40
Any chance of something like the Autobahn system being constructed in a Fascist Russia?
I'd think the chances are slim compared to a much more robust rail network that is in private hands but beholden to the government at the same time. Think public-private monopoly like say Bell Telephone was.
Having someone like Vanderbilt come in and build a rail network across Russia and into China would have opened the country to development much sooner.
What about an autobahn limited to European Russia? That's where most of Russia's population is, anyway.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by nuyt » 08 Nov 2021 11:55

Futurist wrote:
07 Nov 2021 21:40

What happens to the Anatolian interior? Does it get ethnically cleansed? Or is it turned into a type of reservation for Anatolia's Turkish population? Either way, it would sound absolutely horrible! :(

I wonder if Russia will insist on a land bridge to Constantinople through northern Anatolia. This could very likely be done while annexing relatively small numbers of Turks, who can be ethnically cleansed by the Russians in any case, but the logistics of maintaining this over the long(er)-run could be problematic, especially if the Russian troops in charge of this will want to go back home. Frequent troop rotations for Russian troops in Anatolia, perhaps?
Well, I don't know how a fascist Russian ruler would act, you know, but in this whatif scenario I think there would not be a genocide and the Russian/Greeks/Armenians would carve out some territories for themselves, like Eastern Anatolia for the Armenians and Kurds perhaps, Constantinople and Smyrna to a Greek/Russian alliance. Some populations would be exchanged like what happened historically between Greece and Turkey, but in this case the other way round.
The Russians can have a land route through Georgia, Armenia, Kurdistan, towards the Syrian/Lebanese/Orthodox coast. So rump Anatolia would remain Turkish.
Actually the French might join this alliance as well and they were historically in the Southeast coast of Turkey in the 1920s (Adana region).
Of course this would be hugely devastating and humiliating for the Turks and they, like Germany, would look for a reversal of fortunes.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 08 Nov 2021 15:31

Futurist wrote:
07 Nov 2021 21:40

Any chance of something like the Autobahn system being constructed in a Fascist Russia?
I've read descriptions of a few long distance paved automobile roads in 1941. All deep in the interior.

For the short term, two or three decades, it make more sense to put the money into the railways. The cities of the old Russian Empire were underserved, grossly so when compared to the US which approached the European half of the Empire in size & distances. Rail transport has significant cost advantages over automotive transport, and much more so in the early to mid 20th Century. Part of this was the technology of the 1920s & 1930s was out run by the ability to build long distance roads. In the US the State and Federal highway construction was coalescing into a useful network in the latter 1920s. But the bulk of the vehicles were short haul urban vehicles not capable or safe for high speed use. Further the materials & engineering was not suitable for hundreds of hours of near continual operation. Long haul capable passenger & freight autos were rare in 1928 & still not in huge numbers in 1938.

A long haul highways system could be built as a prestige project, but its going to be a net economic loss for some time. On the upside its existence would stimulate the eventual development of a distance capable automobile fleet.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by T. A. Gardner » 08 Nov 2021 19:34

Futurist wrote:
08 Nov 2021 03:28
T. A. Gardner wrote:
08 Nov 2021 01:04
Futurist wrote:
07 Nov 2021 21:40
Any chance of something like the Autobahn system being constructed in a Fascist Russia?
I'd think the chances are slim compared to a much more robust rail network that is in private hands but beholden to the government at the same time. Think public-private monopoly like say Bell Telephone was.
Having someone like Vanderbilt come in and build a rail network across Russia and into China would have opened the country to development much sooner.
What about an autobahn limited to European Russia? That's where most of Russia's population is, anyway.
The autobahn was limited to Germany and originally intended as a series of military highways laid out on a grid to move troops around.

Aside from that, Russia would be very different in that the country is far larger and the population centers further apart. I could see some paving of roads between major cities, far more so than the USSR did by WW 2. Even putting down compacted gravel would work in areas subject to long winter freezes that would tear up an asphalt or concrete road of that era.

I still think a more robust rail system would come first.

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