If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targets?

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Futurist
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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 08 Nov 2021 22:00

T. A. Gardner wrote:
08 Nov 2021 19:34
Futurist wrote:
08 Nov 2021 03:28
T. A. Gardner wrote:
08 Nov 2021 01:04
Futurist wrote:
07 Nov 2021 21:40
Any chance of something like the Autobahn system being constructed in a Fascist Russia?
I'd think the chances are slim compared to a much more robust rail network that is in private hands but beholden to the government at the same time. Think public-private monopoly like say Bell Telephone was.
Having someone like Vanderbilt come in and build a rail network across Russia and into China would have opened the country to development much sooner.
What about an autobahn limited to European Russia? That's where most of Russia's population is, anyway.
The autobahn was limited to Germany and originally intended as a series of military highways laid out on a grid to move troops around.

Aside from that, Russia would be very different in that the country is far larger and the population centers further apart. I could see some paving of roads between major cities, far more so than the USSR did by WW 2. Even putting down compacted gravel would work in areas subject to long winter freezes that would tear up an asphalt or concrete road of that era.

I still think a more robust rail system would come first.
Makes sense. Also, I wonder: Might it be prudent for Russia to build strategic railroads--and lots of them--in places such as the Caucasus, Central Asia, Siberia, and the Far East in order to be ready for a new war there at any time?

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 08 Nov 2021 22:03

nuyt wrote:
08 Nov 2021 11:55
Futurist wrote:
07 Nov 2021 21:40

What happens to the Anatolian interior? Does it get ethnically cleansed? Or is it turned into a type of reservation for Anatolia's Turkish population? Either way, it would sound absolutely horrible! :(

I wonder if Russia will insist on a land bridge to Constantinople through northern Anatolia. This could very likely be done while annexing relatively small numbers of Turks, who can be ethnically cleansed by the Russians in any case, but the logistics of maintaining this over the long(er)-run could be problematic, especially if the Russian troops in charge of this will want to go back home. Frequent troop rotations for Russian troops in Anatolia, perhaps?
Well, I don't know how a fascist Russian ruler would act, you know, but in this whatif scenario I think there would not be a genocide and the Russian/Greeks/Armenians would carve out some territories for themselves, like Eastern Anatolia for the Armenians and Kurds perhaps, Constantinople and Smyrna to a Greek/Russian alliance. Some populations would be exchanged like what happened historically between Greece and Turkey, but in this case the other way round.
The Russians can have a land route through Georgia, Armenia, Kurdistan, towards the Syrian/Lebanese/Orthodox coast. So rump Anatolia would remain Turkish.
Actually the French might join this alliance as well and they were historically in the Southeast coast of Turkey in the 1920s (Adana region).
Of course this would be hugely devastating and humiliating for the Turks and they, like Germany, would look for a reversal of fortunes.
You're talking about a Russian land route to the Levant here whereas I am talking about a Russian land route to Constantinople here. Two different things. Though in theory Russia can have a land route to Constantinople through Romania and Bulgaria if it can successfully pull those two countries into its own orbit. Though Bulgaria might want Constantinople for itself--but then again, Russia is MUCH larger and more populous than Bulgaria is, so Bulgaria will be out of luck!

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 08 Nov 2021 22:09

FWIW, here is a 1936 Soviet propaganda map that portrays Tsarist Russia as a "prison of nations":

https://archive.md/pizhk

Image

This map even shows Russian designs on northern Anatolia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Kashmir!

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T. A. Gardner
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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by T. A. Gardner » 08 Nov 2021 22:59

Futurist wrote:
08 Nov 2021 22:00
Makes sense. Also, I wonder: Might it be prudent for Russia to build strategic railroads--and lots of them--in places such as the Caucasus, Central Asia, Siberia, and the Far East in order to be ready for a new war there at any time?
It would make sense in initially to do what Russia and Japan did in China, build railroads that open up access to ports and movement of goods to overseas destinations.

Image

That would be the green route.

Building a line that connects Russia to Iran / Persia does the same thing.

Both could be used militarily when needed, but commerce and travel would be the primary use.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 09 Nov 2021 00:24

T. A. Gardner wrote:
08 Nov 2021 22:59
Futurist wrote:
08 Nov 2021 22:00
Makes sense. Also, I wonder: Might it be prudent for Russia to build strategic railroads--and lots of them--in places such as the Caucasus, Central Asia, Siberia, and the Far East in order to be ready for a new war there at any time?
It would make sense in initially to do what Russia and Japan did in China, build railroads that open up access to ports and movement of goods to overseas destinations.

Image

That would be the green route.

Building a line that connects Russia to Iran / Persia does the same thing.

Both could be used militarily when needed, but commerce and travel would be the primary use.
Would the Iranian railroad extend all of the way down to the Persian Gulf? Also, would there be any chance of Russia ever actually being allowed to build a naval base on the Persian Gulf?

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 09 Nov 2021 03:36

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
12 Jan 2021 01:43
Futurist wrote:
11 Jan 2021 22:34
...
Other than Poland and Japan, will this Fascist Russia have any additional targets?
They can return to dueling with the Brits over influence in Persia & Afghanistan. Add the fragments of the former Ottoman empire to that list.
BTW, if the Whites win the Russian Civil War AND the Central Powers win World War I, do you still foresee an eventual resumption of the Great Game between Russia and Britain? Or would an Entente/Allied victory in WWI have been required for this?

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 09 Nov 2021 16:18

Futurist wrote:
09 Nov 2021 00:24
... Would the Iranian railroad extend all of the way down to the Persian Gulf? ...
That was originally built in the 1920s, a lot of the financing from British banks. For economy it was a relatively light weight railway. During 1941-1942 it was rebuilt to a higher capacity.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by nuyt » 09 Nov 2021 17:33

Futurist wrote:
08 Nov 2021 22:09
FWIW, here is a 1936 Soviet propaganda map that portrays Tsarist Russia as a "prison of nations":

https://archive.md/pizhk

Image

This map even shows Russian designs on northern Anatolia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Kashmir!
Not too mention the Adriatic!

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 09 Nov 2021 19:33

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
09 Nov 2021 16:18
Futurist wrote:
09 Nov 2021 00:24
... Would the Iranian railroad extend all of the way down to the Persian Gulf? ...
That was originally built in the 1920s, a lot of the financing from British banks. For economy it was a relatively light weight railway. During 1941-1942 it was rebuilt to a higher capacity.
Interesting. The 1941-1942 expansion was done to get more Lend-Lease to the USSR, I'm presuming.

I would think that any Russian attempt to have a naval base in the Persian Gulf would trigger a Russo-British War, no?

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 09 Nov 2021 19:34

nuyt wrote:
09 Nov 2021 17:33
Futurist wrote:
08 Nov 2021 22:09
FWIW, here is a 1936 Soviet propaganda map that portrays Tsarist Russia as a "prison of nations":

https://archive.md/pizhk

Image

This map even shows Russian designs on northern Anatolia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Kashmir!
Not too mention the Adriatic!
The Adriatic was likely meant for Russian puppet states such as Yugoslavia as opposed to for direct Russian annexation.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 09 Nov 2021 20:18

Futurist wrote:
09 Nov 2021 19:33
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
09 Nov 2021 16:18
Futurist wrote:
09 Nov 2021 00:24
... Would the Iranian railroad extend all of the way down to the Persian Gulf? ...
That was originally built in the 1920s, a lot of the financing from British banks. For economy it was a relatively light weight railway. During 1941-1942 it was rebuilt to a higher capacity.
Interesting. The 1941-1942 expansion was done to get more Lend-Lease to the USSR, I'm presuming.
Yes
Futurist wrote:
09 Nov 2021 19:33
I would think that any Russian attempt to have a naval base in the Persian Gulf would trigger a Russo-British War, no?
Those wars were usually by proxy. Czarist Russia and Britain only fought one significant war. From the Napoleonic era the Russians & USSR have fought at least three as Allies. Persian politics would be tainted as always by foreign agendas.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 09 Nov 2021 21:08

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
09 Nov 2021 20:18
Futurist wrote:
09 Nov 2021 19:33
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
09 Nov 2021 16:18
Futurist wrote:
09 Nov 2021 00:24
... Would the Iranian railroad extend all of the way down to the Persian Gulf? ...
That was originally built in the 1920s, a lot of the financing from British banks. For economy it was a relatively light weight railway. During 1941-1942 it was rebuilt to a higher capacity.
Interesting. The 1941-1942 expansion was done to get more Lend-Lease to the USSR, I'm presuming.
Yes
Futurist wrote:
09 Nov 2021 19:33
I would think that any Russian attempt to have a naval base in the Persian Gulf would trigger a Russo-British War, no?
Those wars were usually by proxy. Czarist Russia and Britain only fought one significant war. From the Napoleonic era the Russians & USSR have fought at least three as Allies. Persian politics would be tainted as always by foreign agendas.
FWIW, a proxy war could eventually become hotter (due to Great Power intervention) if the proxy/proxies of one of the sides will be/start losing this war. For instance, in 1979 Afghanistan, the Soviet Union initially didn't want to intervene and only eventually did so because it feared that without such an intervention, Afghanistan would slip into the US/Western orbit.

As for the UK and Russia fighting Napoleon Bonaparte, Kaiser Bill, and Adolf Hitler together, Yeah, if they have an even more dangerous common enemy, then the Anglo-Russians can join forces. But what if they don't? Then you have much more potential for tensions and even outright warfare between the two of them, no?

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