A Soviet-US war in the late 1940s over the Middle East's oil reserves

[Futurist]

What if the Soviet Union, instead of withdrawing from northern Iran in 1946, would have decided to make an all-out move for Iran's vast oil reserves and thus aimed to conquer all of Iran during this time? However, let's say that the Soviet Union would not have stopped there but would have also subsequently decided to conquer Iraq, Kuwait, and eastern Saudi Arabia in the hopes of setting up pro-Soviet puppet states there just like in Iran. The logic behind such a Soviet move, of course, would be for the Soviet Union and its puppet states to control a GIANT part of the Middle East's and world's oil reserves and thus to ensure that these oil reserves don't fall into the hands of "predatory bourgeois capitalist imperialists". Let's also say that the Soviet Union will refrain from engaging in any offensive operations anywhere else unless prompted to by others; so, the Soviet Union would be perfectly content avoiding war on all other fronts if possible; it would have no desire to expand further into Europe or into South Asia or into East Asia, after all. Rather, the Soviet Union's goal in this war is exclusively going to be the Middle East's vast oil reserves, primarily in the Persian Gulf area.

Anyway, just how would such a war have played out? Any ideas and/or thoughts on this?

[EwenS]

You assume that everyone knew about the massive Middle East oil reserves in 1946. But is that true? They knew there was oil but the extent of those reserves only really became clear in the 1950s.

Oil had been exploited in Northern Iraq (around Mosul) and Persia (Iran) from the early 20th Century. Bahrain had the first Gulf oil in the early 1930s, but it was the late 1940s before exploitation really took off. Oil was only discovered in Saudi Arabia in 1938 with the first fields being brought on line in WW2 with massive expansion only coming on line in the 1950s. It was by no means simply a case of drilling a well and finding oil in the region. A lot of money and experience, especially from the USA, went into finding and then exploiting those resources.

Added to that the USSR didn’t need more oil. It had its own reserves and had been discovering more during WW2 which also turned out to be huge. Between 1945 and 1955 it’s problems seem to have revolved around the exploitation of them. Added to that it had access to oil from Romania.
https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/03/2 ... Dependence

By WW2 the USA was by far the biggest oil producer in the world. Oil was also coming out South America, the Caribbean, Burma and the Dutch East Indies. There was more than enough supply to meet the demand.

So as I see it, the USSR has no strategic need in 1946 to secure more oil supplies. And, given the knowledge at the time of world reserves already being exploited and the lack of knowledge of what was subsequently found in the ME, I’m struggling to see any upside for the USSR in controlling a region that is mostly desert. It would have little effect on its biggest rival, the USA.

The biggest loser would be Britain and its oil interests via Anglo Persian Oil Company

[Futurist]

You assume that everyone knew about the massive Middle East oil reserves in 1946. But is that true? They knew there was oil but the extent of those reserves only really became clear in the 1950s.

So, what about having this war break out later on instead? Albeit the 1950s might be a bad time due to the US having overwhelming nuclear superiority over the Soviet Union during this time, no?

Oil had been exploited in Northern Iraq (around Mosul) and Persia (Iran) from the early 20th Century. Bahrain had the first Gulf oil in the early 1930s, but it was the late 1940s before exploitation really took off. Oil was only discovered in Saudi Arabia in 1938 with the first fields being brought on line in WW2 with massive expansion only coming on line in the 1950s. It was by no means simply a case of drilling a well and finding oil in the region. A lot of money and experience, especially from the USA, went into finding and then exploiting those resources.

Can't this experience also come from the Soviet Union if the political will for this would have existed, though?

Added to that the USSR didn’t need more oil. It had its own reserves and had been discovering more during WW2 which also turned out to be huge. Between 1945 and 1955 it’s problems seem to have revolved around the exploitation of them. Added to that it had access to oil from Romania.
https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/03/2 ... Dependence

Did Romania still have a lot of remaining oil during this time?

By WW2 the USA was by far the biggest oil producer in the world. Oil was also coming out South America, the Caribbean, Burma and the Dutch East Indies. There was more than enough supply to meet the demand.

So as I see it, the USSR has no strategic need in 1946 to secure more oil supplies. And, given the knowledge at the time of world reserves already being exploited and the lack of knowledge of what was subsequently found in the ME, I’m struggling to see any upside for the USSR in controlling a region that is mostly desert. It would have little effect on its biggest rival, the USA.

The biggest loser would be Britain and its oil interests via Anglo Persian Oil Company

What about having the Soviet Union (and/or Soviet allies) conquer this oil later on, when it was much more profitable for the Soviet Union to do this?

[Carl Schwamberger]

This is the era when the DROPSHOT plan/s were the guide for US strategy vs the USSR.

[Futurist]

This is the era when the DROPSHOT plan/s were the guide for US strategy vs the USSR.

Except Operation Dropshot envisioned a much larger and wider war as opposed to a war only limited to Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

[Futurist]

Here's the text of Operation Dropshot, for the record:

http://www.allworldwars.com/Dropshot%20 ... 01957.html

[Carl Schwamberger]

Thats the latter 1950s version. It originated circa 1948 the the Berlin Crisis brought the US to reconsider war plans vs the USSR. It was up dated regularly through the 1950s. There was a component of the DROPSHOT plans that focused on the Gulf region, hence my reference to it in the context of a late 1940s 'oil war' or Middle Eastern War

[Futurist]

Where can I find the late 1940s version of this plan?

[EwenS]

You assume that everyone knew about the massive Middle East oil reserves in 1946. But is that true? They knew there was oil but the extent of those reserves only really became clear in the 1950s.

So, what about having this war break out later on instead? Albeit the 1950s might be a bad time due to the US having overwhelming nuclear superiority over the Soviet Union during this time, no?

Oil had been exploited in Northern Iraq (around Mosul) and Persia (Iran) from the early 20th Century. Bahrain had the first Gulf oil in the early 1930s, but it was the late 1940s before exploitation really took off. Oil was only discovered in Saudi Arabia in 1938 with the first fields being brought on line in WW2 with massive expansion only coming on line in the 1950s. It was by no means simply a case of drilling a well and finding oil in the region. A lot of money and experience, especially from the USA, went into finding and then exploiting those resources.

Can't this experience also come from the Soviet Union if the political will for this would have existed, though?

Added to that the USSR didn’t need more oil. It had its own reserves and had been discovering more during WW2 which also turned out to be huge. Between 1945 and 1955 it’s problems seem to have revolved around the exploitation of them. Added to that it had access to oil from Romania.
https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/03/2 ... Dependence

Did Romania still have a lot of remaining oil during this time?

By WW2 the USA was by far the biggest oil producer in the world. Oil was also coming out South America, the Caribbean, Burma and the Dutch East Indies. There was more than enough supply to meet the demand.

So as I see it, the USSR has no strategic need in 1946 to secure more oil supplies. And, given the knowledge at the time of world reserves already being exploited and the lack of knowledge of what was subsequently found in the ME, I’m struggling to see any upside for the USSR in controlling a region that is mostly desert. It would have little effect on its biggest rival, the USA.

The biggest loser would be Britain and its oil interests via Anglo Persian Oil Company

What about having the Soviet Union (and/or Soviet allies) conquer this oil later on, when it was much more profitable for the Soviet Union to do this?

You will find details here of the oil producing countries in the 1930s. You need to scan down to p6 of the .pdf (page 131 of the original document).
https://wayback.archive-it.org/6321/201 ... 0277ah.pdf

România was the 6th largest oil producer in the world in the late 1930s and was still producing similar quantities immediately postwar. Today it remains a major producer but now only ranks 30th in the world thanks to the many postwar discoveries elsewhere in the world.

Here is a list of the biggest oilfields in the world along with dates of discovery and commencement of production.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_fields

[maltesefalcon]

One of the motivations for Soviet incursion into Iran may have been the coast itself. Although a vast nation, the USSR was short on warm weather all-season ports. Occupation of Iran would have meant an opportunity to establish a naval base and continued presence of the Soviet fleet in the Persian Gulf.

I believe that the invasion of Afghanistan in the latter half of the 20th century may have been a precursor to take advantage of turmoil in Iran and try this process IRL.

[Thumpalumpacus]

One of the motivations for Soviet incursion into Iran may have been the coast itself. Although a vast nation, the USSR was short on warm weather all-season ports. Occupation of Iran would have meant an opportunity to establish a naval base and continued presence of the Soviet fleet in the Persian Gulf.

I believe that the invasion of Afghanistan in the latter half of the 20th century may have been a precursor to take advantage of turmoil in Iran and try this process IRL.

An excellent point. Not only did the USSR thirst for warm-water ports, a big reason for American involvement in Iranian politics was to deny the Soviets Persian Gulf ports. It might be argued that the Soviets needed the ports more than they needed the oil -- but denying that oil to Western powers might could be a motivation as well.

[Futurist]

I believe that the invasion of Afghanistan in the latter half of the 20th century may have been a precursor to take advantage of turmoil in Iran and try this process IRL.

Except the Soviet Union already had a common border with Iran and thus didn't actually need to invade Afghanistan for this.

[maltesefalcon]

I believe that the invasion of Afghanistan in the latter half of the 20th century may have been a precursor to take advantage of turmoil in Iran and try this process IRL.

Except the Soviet Union already had a common border with Iran and thus didn't actually need to invade Afghanistan for this.

100% correct. But taking Afghanistan by force would give the Soviets a handy excuse to post large numbers of troops on the Western frontier of that country. You know-to guard against sympathetic cross border reprisal raids by Islamic forces in Iran, government or local militia doesn't matter.

The Soviets would have opportunity to place air support much closer to the coastland and Iran would be effectively flanked on its Eastern frontier on day one.

The successful capture of Afghanistan would also allay fears that irregular forces from there would interfere in Iran in like fashion.

[Futurist]

I believe that the invasion of Afghanistan in the latter half of the 20th century may have been a precursor to take advantage of turmoil in Iran and try this process IRL.

Except the Soviet Union already had a common border with Iran and thus didn't actually need to invade Afghanistan for this.

100% correct. But taking Afghanistan by force would give the Soviets a handy excuse to post large numbers of troops on the Western frontier of that country. You know-to guard against sympathetic cross border reprisal raids by Islamic forces in Iran, government or local militia doesn't matter.

The Soviets would have opportunity to place air support much closer to the coastland and Iran would be effectively flanked on its Eastern frontier on day one.

The successful capture of Afghanistan would also allay fears that irregular forces from there would interfere in Iran in like fashion.

Interesting points. Anyway, in regards to warm-water ports, if the Soviet Union valued them so highly, then why did it give up Port Arthur in I believe the 1950s? Also, wasn't Kaliningrad already a Soviet warm-water port?

[Futurist]

One of the motivations for Soviet incursion into Iran may have been the coast itself. Although a vast nation, the USSR was short on warm weather all-season ports. Occupation of Iran would have meant an opportunity to establish a naval base and continued presence of the Soviet fleet in the Persian Gulf.

I believe that the invasion of Afghanistan in the latter half of the 20th century may have been a precursor to take advantage of turmoil in Iran and try this process IRL.

Maybe trying to establish an alliance with the Iranian mullahs would have been more productive? It would have been one hell of a strange alliance, but possibly no more strange than the de facto Stalin-Hitler alliance between 1939 and 1941 or the Franco-Russian alliance in the pre-World War I era.