A Soviet-US war in the late 1940s over the Middle East's oil reserves

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Futurist
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Re: A Soviet-US war in the late 1940s over the Middle East's oil reserves

#46

Post by Futurist » 27 Jan 2021, 21:16

Thumpalumpacus wrote:
27 Jan 2021, 16:39
Futurist wrote:
26 Jan 2021, 20:32
So, wait until after 1961 before starting this war?
If you think the only problem with it is Britain defending Kuwait, sure. As I've pointed out above, there are numerous problems with the scenario that I think render it not only unlikely to succeed, but unlikely to carry Iranian domestic support.
Makes sense; thank you.

By the way, if you are curious, I created two separate threads earlier (several days ago or longer) where I discussed the potential foreign policy of a hypothetical Fascist Russia. You might be interested in checking out these threads. :)

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Re: A Soviet-US war in the late 1940s over the Middle East's oil reserves

#47

Post by Futurist » 27 Jan 2021, 21:17

Here are the relevant threads:

Thread #1:

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=254630

Thread #2:

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=254793


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Thumpalumpacus
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Re: A Soviet-US war in the late 1940s over the Middle East's oil reserves

#48

Post by Thumpalumpacus » 27 Jan 2021, 23:45

Futurist wrote:
27 Jan 2021, 21:16
Thumpalumpacus wrote:
27 Jan 2021, 16:39
Futurist wrote:
26 Jan 2021, 20:32
So, wait until after 1961 before starting this war?
If you think the only problem with it is Britain defending Kuwait, sure. As I've pointed out above, there are numerous problems with the scenario that I think render it not only unlikely to succeed, but unlikely to carry Iranian domestic support.
Makes sense; thank you.

By the way, if you are curious, I created two separate threads earlier (several days ago or longer) where I discussed the potential foreign policy of a hypothetical Fascist Russia. You might be interested in checking out these threads. :)
I've commented in one already, but don't feel competent enough to offer informed opinion in the other.

Futurist
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Re: A Soviet-US war in the late 1940s over the Middle East's oil reserves

#49

Post by Futurist » 28 Jan 2021, 05:30

Thumpalumpacus wrote:
27 Jan 2021, 23:45
Futurist wrote:
27 Jan 2021, 21:16
Thumpalumpacus wrote:
27 Jan 2021, 16:39
Futurist wrote:
26 Jan 2021, 20:32
So, wait until after 1961 before starting this war?
If you think the only problem with it is Britain defending Kuwait, sure. As I've pointed out above, there are numerous problems with the scenario that I think render it not only unlikely to succeed, but unlikely to carry Iranian domestic support.
Makes sense; thank you.

By the way, if you are curious, I created two separate threads earlier (several days ago or longer) where I discussed the potential foreign policy of a hypothetical Fascist Russia. You might be interested in checking out these threads. :)
I've commented in one already, but don't feel competent enough to offer informed opinion in the other.
Very well; thank you. Anyway, out of curiosity--have you ever lived anywhere else other than the US and Iran?

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Re: A Soviet-US war in the late 1940s over the Middle East's oil reserves

#50

Post by David Thompson » 28 Jan 2021, 06:03

Futurist -- You asked of another member:
Anyway, out of curiosity--have you ever lived anywhere else other than the US and Iran?
Please use the forum PM system for personal questions, so as not to distract readers who are looking for on-topic discussion.

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Re: A Soviet-US war in the late 1940s over the Middle East's oil reserves

#51

Post by Futurist » 28 Jan 2021, 10:20

Thanks, David! Will do!

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Re: A Soviet-US war in the late 1940s over the Middle East's oil reserves

#52

Post by Thumpalumpacus » 28 Jan 2021, 22:43

<edited per the moderator suggestion above>

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Re: A Soviet-US war in the late 1940s over the Middle East's oil reserves

#53

Post by Futurist » 29 Jan 2021, 01:25

Got your PM! ;)

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Re: A Soviet-US war in the late 1940s over the Middle East's oil reserves

#54

Post by Futurist » 18 Feb 2021, 05:29

@Thumpalumpacus Do you think that the Sunni Muslim community worldwide would have become extremely hostile towards the Soviet Union if the Soviet Union were to ever outright invade Saudi Arabia--even if its troops would have never actually entered the Muslim holy cities of Mecca and Medina?

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Re: A Soviet-US war in the late 1940s over the Middle East's oil reserves

#55

Post by historygeek2021 » 18 Feb 2021, 23:08

The USA would have crushed the Soviet Union. The Red Army might score some initial victories and push deep into Persia and Iraq, maybe all the way to Kuwait, but the USA would have come roaring back with overwhelming sea, air and (eventually) land power. The Soviet Union was in terrible shape after WW2 compared to America (which hadn't been harmed at all other than casualties that, in comparison with what the USSR sustained, were insignificant).

First the U.S. Navy would secure ports in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean to supply American forces in the region. The Soviet Union had no navy whatsoever in this region, so this would go unchallenged.

Then the U.S. Air Force would cut the Red Army's supply lines, and U.S. strategic bombers would obliterate Soviet oil fields in the Caucasus and Central Asian Republics and Sakhalin. Combined with a total naval blockade of the entire Soviet Union upon the outbreak of war, the Soviet economy would rapidly collapse. The USSR was dependent on U.S. lendlease to survive against Nazi Germany during the war, and there would be no such aid in this war. Soviet manpower had been decimated by 28 million deaths (including 10 million military deaths) and countless more wounded.

While the U.S. Navy strangled the Soviet economy and the U.S. Air Force destroyed the USSR's only sources of oil, U.S. forces would methodically build up in the Middle East. Turkey would not want to be left alone in the Middle East with the USSR, so American troops and bombers would begin pouring into the country and be in position to launch attacks from across the Black Sea.

Red Army units in the Middle East would eventually find themselves without oil, cut off by U.S. air strikes and all but helpless in the face of an eventual U.S. counterattack.

The only question is: Where would the U.S. Army stop? The U.S. public already hated communism. This would be the final straw. At the insistence of Senator McCarthy and General MacArthur, the United States would settle for nothing less than the unconditional surrender of the entire Soviet Union. Red Army units in the Middle East would be annihilated. The U.S. Army would invade the Soviet Union from across the Black Sea, up the Caucasus and through Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. The smoldering remains of Soviet oil fields would be captured by the U.S. Army. In the open terrain of southern Russia, the now oil-less Red Army relying on foot soldiers and horses would be easily outmaneuvered and destroyed by the fully mobilized U.S. Army.

All of the Ukraine, the Caucasus, Kazakhstan and the Volga and Ural region of Russia would fall to the U.S. Army. Russia would be split in two and desperately sue for peace. But Stalin would know what fate awaited him after what happened to the Nazi high command at Nuremberg. Either his subordinated would finally betray him or he would attempt to flee to China, but communist rule would be at an end in Russia.

With the Soviet Union liberated from communism, communist forces elsewhere in the world give up. There is no Cold War. No nuclear buildup. It is the end of history. Humanity lives in peace and prosperity for the rest of time.

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Re: A Soviet-US war in the late 1940s over the Middle East's oil reserves

#56

Post by Futurist » 18 Feb 2021, 23:20

Does the US actually use nuclear weapons in this war? Lots of them?

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Re: A Soviet-US war in the late 1940s over the Middle East's oil reserves

#57

Post by historygeek2021 » 19 Feb 2021, 04:13

Futurist wrote:
18 Feb 2021, 23:20
Does the US actually use nuclear weapons in this war? Lots of them?
I don't think it would be necessary (just as I don't think it was necessary against Japan in the OTL), but in a war against the Soviet Union the U.S. would almost certainly use nuclear weapons. There would be widespread fear of the troops on the ground freezing in the winter like the Germans. Top military and political leadership would try to win the war from the air as much as possible.

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Re: A Soviet-US war in the late 1940s over the Middle East's oil reserves

#58

Post by Futurist » 19 Feb 2021, 04:23

How many nukes do you think would be used by the US against the USSR?

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Re: A Soviet-US war in the late 1940s over the Middle East's oil reserves

#59

Post by historygeek2021 » 19 Feb 2021, 05:33

In a scenario where the USSR invades Persia, the war would probably last 3 years. The Red Army pushes for a few months and is then turned back. The second year the U.S. Army invades from Turkey and Persia and occupies the Russian Steppe up to somewhere short of Omsk. In the third year, the U.S. mops up what is left of the Red Army.

In the first year, the U.S. Air Force probably drops about 10 atom bombs on major Russian cities.

In the second year, the U.S. Air Force drops fewer atom bombs on more distant locations so as not to poison its own troops who are invading.

In the third year, no atom bombs would need to be dropped.

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Re: A Soviet-US war in the late 1940s over the Middle East's oil reserves

#60

Post by Futurist » 22 Mar 2021, 23:55

Just how many Soviet deaths are there actually going to be as a result of all of these atomic bomb droppings?

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