The United States invades North Vietnam during the Vietnam War

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Wat Tyler
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Re: The United States invades North Vietnam during the Vietnam War

Post by Wat Tyler » 31 Jan 2021 10:58

I tend to feel it would play out as a sort of combination of the Korean and Veitnam wars. An American invasion in the north would probably invoke a conventional Chinese response and they would send troops into Vietnam. In the OTL the Vietnamse expelled the Americans on their own , this scenerio would just be adding more troops into the mix. The result would be the same in my opinion , America out of Vietnam but higher casualties on both sides.
I also doubt the Chinese would be the first to consider or use the nuclear option. As i recall the US considered nuclear weapons being deployed when the Korean war wasn't going too well and it wouldn't surprise me if they had similar thoughts if China became embroiled in Vietnam.

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Re: The United States invades North Vietnam during the Vietnam War

Post by OpanaPointer » 01 Feb 2021 15:46

Futurist wrote:
30 Jan 2021 20:04
OpanaPointer wrote:
30 Jan 2021 19:50
T. A. Gardner wrote:
30 Jan 2021 19:45
I seriously doubt China would start a nuclear war over N. Vietnam. It is likely sufficient they do what they did in Korea to push the US back from their border. Going nuclear is an escalation that would engender a serious response from the US, an might even have serious negative implications with the Soviet Union.
I didn't say China would start a nuclear war over N. Vietnam. I said that they would happily nuke North Vietnam if there was an enemy that appeared to be heading for China via North Vietnam. The Yalu Rule in a pre-emptive fashion.
Except by doing this China would be significantly escalating this war. Much better to do a conventional Chinese military intervention as in 1950, no?
I said the opposite and you want me to agree with your opinion. Have fun with that.
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Re: The United States invades North Vietnam during the Vietnam War

Post by OpanaPointer » 01 Feb 2021 15:56

Thumpalumpacus wrote:
30 Jan 2021 23:10
I would imagine a large conventional intervention. I'm skeptical it'd go nuclear.
What's to stop China from nuking another country if they felt threatened?
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Re: The United States invades North Vietnam during the Vietnam War

Post by Futurist » 01 Feb 2021 21:54

OpanaPointer wrote:
01 Feb 2021 15:56
Thumpalumpacus wrote:
30 Jan 2021 23:10
I would imagine a large conventional intervention. I'm skeptical it'd go nuclear.
What's to stop China from nuking another country if they felt threatened?
The fear of a US nuclear response to them?

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Re: The United States invades North Vietnam during the Vietnam War

Post by Thumpalumpacus » 01 Feb 2021 23:54

OpanaPointer wrote:
01 Feb 2021 15:56
Thumpalumpacus wrote:
30 Jan 2021 23:10
I would imagine a large conventional intervention. I'm skeptical it'd go nuclear.
What's to stop China from nuking another country if they felt threatened?
How many warheads did they have then? Nuking American soldiers in the field would certainly court nuclear reprisal. Did they have the means to stand up to our stockpiles? Or the means to reach America with theirs, at the time? And might a nuclear attack by the US present a graver threat to the Chinese nation than a conventional army?

I mean, they could do so if they felt froggy, but I think they would have these concerns, and perhaps more, mitigating against a nuclear strike on an American advance.

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Re: The United States invades North Vietnam during the Vietnam War

Post by OpanaPointer » 02 Feb 2021 00:19

Okay, remember that we're talking about China nuking potential invading forces in a third country. They attacked our forces when we got to the Yalu in Korea, with overwhelming forces. If they were scared they'd escalate. The Cambodia incursion is a metric for how people at home felt about such junkets. If you don't agree with me that's cool. Typing on a cell phone in a O2 tent is tedious.
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Re: The United States invades North Vietnam during the Vietnam War

Post by Thumpalumpacus » 02 Feb 2021 02:07

OpanaPointer wrote:
02 Feb 2021 00:19
Okay, remember that we're talking about China nuking potential invading forces in a third country. They attacked our forces when we got to the Yalu in Korea, with overwhelming forces. If they were scared they'd escalate. The Cambodia incursion is a metric for how people at home felt about such junkets. If you don't agree with me that's cool. Typing on a cell phone in a O2 tent is tedious.
I get that, phones suck.

It's a what-if, that and six bucks would get us coffee at Starbucks and we can argue it there, lol. I still think the Chinese would be cautious about a nuclear intervention -- but based on the Korean intervention, as you point out, I can definitely see a conventional response, just as I mentioned earlier. I was just trying to answer your question of "what's to stop them", and my answer is that it's a pretty risky decision.

I hope you can get through the difficulties and return to good health. My best wishes in that regard.

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Re: The United States invades North Vietnam during the Vietnam War

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 10 Feb 2021 17:54

Thumpalumpacus wrote:
02 Feb 2021 02:07
OpanaPointer wrote:
02 Feb 2021 00:19
Okay, remember that we're talking about China nuking potential invading forces in a third country. They attacked our forces when we got to the Yalu in Korea, with overwhelming forces. If they were scared they'd escalate. The Cambodia incursion is a metric for how people at home felt about such junkets. If you don't agree with me that's cool. Typing on a cell phone in a O2 tent is tedious.
I get that, phones suck.

It's a what-if, that and six bucks would get us coffee at Starbucks and we can argue it there, lol. I still think the Chinese would be cautious about a nuclear intervention -- but based on the Korean intervention, as you point out, I can definitely see a conventional response, just as I mentioned earlier. I was just trying to answer your question of "what's to stop them", and my answer is that it's a pretty risky decision.
Re: Nuclear threat in Korea. I don't know exactly how the Chinese initially evaluated the US nuclear threat. Circumstances indicate they were willing to risk it in the autumn of 1950, and again when they decided to continue with new offensives in 1951 & 1952. What I do know is the US Army was finally ordered to execute a plan to send a battalion of twelve 260mm cannon, the Atomic Annie gun, with nuclear projectiles to Japan. Those were stored on the docks, ready on 24 hours notice to embark for Korea. Then the US made sure a Communist spy in Japan learned of these & their alert status. Suddenly the Chinese, who had been stalling negotiations for many months were ready to sign a agreement. Coincidence? Perhaps. Fehrenbach who describes this incident in 'This Kind of War' felt it important enough to mention in relation to the cease fire & armistice negotiations.

Fehrenbach also points out the possible influence of Stalins death & infighting in the Soviet Politburo, a failing rice crop in China, and the Viet/French war dragging out as other influences on the Chinese decision for accepting a cease fire in Korea.

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Re: The United States invades North Vietnam during the Vietnam War

Post by EKB » 23 Apr 2021 09:37


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Re: The United States invades North Vietnam during the Vietnam War

Post by Futurist » 02 May 2021 01:19

EKB wrote:
23 Apr 2021 09:37
These titles might answer some questions posed in this thread:

https://www.amazon.com/Why-Vietnam-War- ... 8&qid=&sr=

https://www.amazon.com/Nixons-Nuclear-S ... 179&sr=8-6
Any good books about this topic that I can read online for free?

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Re: The United States invades North Vietnam during the Vietnam War

Post by EKB » 02 May 2021 05:31

Futurist wrote:
02 May 2021 01:19
EKB wrote:
23 Apr 2021 09:37
These titles might answer some questions posed in this thread:

https://www.amazon.com/Why-Vietnam-War- ... 8&qid=&sr=

https://www.amazon.com/Nixons-Nuclear-S ... 179&sr=8-6
Any good books about this topic that I can read online for free?

The U.S. State Department has a massive, treasure trove of official books, declassified source documents, and footnotes stored online. The material is organized by presidential administration.

If you want to read historical documents but not complete books, then first select the Indochina or Vietnam-related volume that covers a specific year that interests you. A new page will appear with a search box on the right side; type in the word "nuclear" and click on the magnifying glass icon. Another page will appear, listing links to any relevant documents.

Here is one example, where I discovered the following statements contained within:

Summary Minute of a Meeting in the Office of the Secretary of State. October 8, 1954, 10:30 a.m.
TOP SECRET
October 8, 1954, 10:30 a.m.
Subject: Report on Franco-American Talks on Indochina

Participants:

The Secretary of State
Mr. Murphy
Mr. Robertson
Mr. MacArthur
Mr. Bowie
Mr. Nolting
Mr. Barbour
Mr. Kidder
Mr. Galloway
Mr. Young
Mr. Dale Fisher
Mr. Hoey
[Mr. Selby]

Support to Diem Government

[...]

Answering Mr. Robertson’s question as to how the Manila Pact would actually be applied in case of overt aggression, the Secretary stated that, in case of an all-out Vietminh attack, he foresaw American bombing of Tonkin and probably general war with China. Our concept envisages a fight with nuclear weapons rather than the commitment of ground forces.


https://history.state.gov/historicaldoc ... 13p2/d1243

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EKB
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Re: The United States invades North Vietnam during the Vietnam War

Post by EKB » 15 Jun 2021 07:04

Eisenhower rejected military chiefs’ demand for nuclear war on China, classified account of ’58 Taiwan Strait crisis reveals

https://thegrayzone.com/2021/05/27/eise ... an-strait/

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