The Germans withdraw from Italy in early 1944

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Juan G. C.
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The Germans withdraw from Italy in early 1944

#1

Post by Juan G. C. » 13 Mar 2021, 13:21

I have recently found something very interesting in a biography of Manstein. When asked in the spring of 1944 what he would do in Italy "if he were in charge of this theatre, Manstein replied that he would bring back into Germany the bulk of the forces stationed on Italian soil, and this as quickly as possible so that the Americans and the English would not be able to catch them. He would then defend the Alpine crossings with only a few troops. As for the mobile units of Kesselring's army group, they could be reformed in Germany, then prepared for offensive action as strategic reserves" (Benoit Lemay, Erich von Manstein: Hitler's Master Strategist, p. 429).

What if the Germans had done just that, say, after the landings of Anzio? What would the consequences have been? On the one hand, probably It would have been easy to defend the Alps, much less forces would have been needed on the parte of the Germans, and they could have created strategic reserves. On the other hand, the Germans would have Lost all the industry and resources of Italy, which would have fallen on the hands of the Allies. The Allies could have put their Air bases much nearer to Germany, and It would have been much easier for them to land on the Balkans.

Also interesting is what consequences would that movement have had on Allied strategy, which by then was set on Overlord. Perhaps it could have leas to them reconsidering the strategy.

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Re: The Germans withdraw from Italy in early 1944

#2

Post by OpanaPointer » 13 Mar 2021, 14:21

Allied run to link up forces coming from Russia with troops coming from Italy? The east/south German front just got a whole lot bigger.
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Re: The Germans withdraw from Italy in early 1944

#3

Post by Andy H » 13 Mar 2021, 14:43

Juan G. C. wrote:
13 Mar 2021, 13:21
I have recently found something very interesting in a biography of Manstein. When asked in the spring of 1944 what he would do in Italy "if he were in charge of this theatre, Manstein replied that he would bring back into Germany the bulk of the forces stationed on Italian soil, and this as quickly as possible so that the Americans and the English would not be able to catch them. He would then defend the Alpine crossings with only a few troops. As for the mobile units of Kesselring's army group, they could be reformed in Germany, then prepared for offensive action as strategic reserves" (Benoit Lemay, Erich von Manstein: Hitler's Master Strategist, p. 429).

What if the Germans had done just that, say, after the landings of Anzio? What would the consequences have been? On the one hand, probably It would have been easy to defend the Alps, much less forces would have been needed on the parte of the Germans, and they could have created strategic reserves. On the other hand, the Germans would have Lost all the industry and resources of Italy, which would have fallen on the hands of the Allies. The Allies could have put their Air bases much nearer to Germany, and It would have been much easier for them to land on the Balkans.

Also interesting is what consequences would that movement have had on Allied strategy, which by then was set on Overlord. Perhaps it could have leas to them reconsidering the strategy.
Hu Juan GC

The other side of the coin would be that the German position in the Balkans and SE Central Europe would have collapsed and also the Allied divisions that spent '44 slogging up Italy, would have been available for deployment elsewhere as well.
The Germans in southern France would either need to reinforce the French/Italian border or risk being cut off by an Allied thrust west.
You've already mentioned the obvious movement of Allied air units north, thus accelerating the bombing campaign against the German economy.
Allied naval units can also be re-directed else where.

Regards

Andy H

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Re: The Germans withdraw from Italy in early 1944

#4

Post by Juan G. C. » 13 Mar 2021, 15:21

Andy H wrote:
13 Mar 2021, 14:43

The other side of the coin would be that the German position in the Balkans and SE Central Europe would have collapsed (...)
Why would it have collapsed? Thanks.

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Re: The Germans withdraw from Italy in early 1944

#5

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 13 Mar 2021, 15:49

Collapse of the Balkans region occurred not much later. With the entry the Red Army into Rumania at the end of 1944 the retreat of German ground and residual air forces from S of the Danube occurred. Withdrawing to the Alps from Italy opens the threat from Allied Armies to the middle & lower Danube region. There are strong arguments why the West Allies should not go there, but the Germans are unaware of those, & deception operations with feints and diversions can make Hitler & company think Alexanders Army Group would turn right and head for the Lubjana Gap. This can force a decision of evacuating the Balkans months earlier. either way the ground east of the Austrian Alps must be defended, either on the easter Italian border, or some line further east of north. Ultimately their lengthens the are to be defended. Stopping at the Northern Appinnes and defending the Po river valley looks like a better choice.

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Re: The Germans withdraw from Italy in early 1944

#6

Post by Andy H » 13 Mar 2021, 16:48

Juan G. C. wrote:
13 Mar 2021, 15:21
Andy H wrote:
13 Mar 2021, 14:43

The other side of the coin would be that the German position in the Balkans and SE Central Europe would have collapsed (...)
Why would it have collapsed? Thanks.
Hi Juan

I'll defer to Carl's response which would almost mirror my own.

Regards

Andy H

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Re: The Germans withdraw from Italy in early 1944

#7

Post by stg 44 » 13 Mar 2021, 17:16

Well they'd have given the Allies air bases in Northern Italy and the ability to bomb into any part of Germany and the Balkans. Not sure that would have been a good trade off.

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Re: The Germans withdraw from Italy in early 1944

#8

Post by Juan G. C. » 13 Mar 2021, 17:18

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
13 Mar 2021, 15:49
either way the ground east of the Austrian Alps must be defended, either on the easter Italian border, or some line further east of north. Ultimately their lengthens the are to be defended.
Would have been necessary many forces to defend the Ljubljana gap and the other Alpine passes? Manstein seems to have thought It could be done with few troops.
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
13 Mar 2021, 15:49
Stopping at the Northern Appinnes and defending the Po river valley looks like a better choice.
Would that have been a better choice than defending South of Rome?

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Re: The Germans withdraw from Italy in early 1944

#9

Post by KDF33 » 13 Mar 2021, 17:39

It was an oft-repeated opinion of Manstein that the Wehrmacht should pull forces out of OKW theaters to reinforce Germany's Eastern Front. This is unsurprising, given that Manstein was C-in-C of Heeresgruppe Süd, with forces at his disposal wholly insufficient to stop the Soviet advance westward.

The problem, of course, is that by 1944 the Germans were pressed from every side: France was about to be invaded, Italy was an active front that was essential to cover the Balkans, and the East was, as ever, Germany's festering bleeding wound. The days of shuffling around units were effectively over.

IMO, Manstein saw the situation through the narrow lenses of his area of responsibility.

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Re: The Germans withdraw from Italy in early 1944

#10

Post by maltesefalcon » 13 Mar 2021, 22:17

It may have had some merit militarily.

But abandoning Italy would have some huge political consequences. Aside from the fact that Hitler admired Mussolini, letting the Allies have the rest of Italy without a fight showed weakness in both the Axis alliance and in Germany itself. Such weakness would be evident not only to the Allies-it had the potential to invite defection from other Axis vassal states as well.

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Re: The Germans withdraw from Italy in early 1944

#11

Post by thaddeus_c » 14 Mar 2021, 14:08

KDF33 wrote:
13 Mar 2021, 17:39
It was an oft-repeated opinion of Manstein that the Wehrmacht should pull forces out of OKW theaters to reinforce Germany's Eastern Front. This is unsurprising, given that Manstein was C-in-C of Heeresgruppe Süd, with forces at his disposal wholly insufficient to stop the Soviet advance westward.

IMO, Manstein saw the situation through the narrow lenses of his area of responsibility.
if anything withdraw the Axis forces to the Siret River line in Romania, or have a better plan to do that?

and when/if that collapses have enough forces to jointly occupy up to the Carpathian Mtns. with the Hungarians?

that is more of a Plan B than retreating from Italy.

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Re: The Germans withdraw from Italy in early 1944

#12

Post by Juan G. C. » 14 Mar 2021, 18:15

Juan G. C. wrote:
13 Mar 2021, 17:18
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
13 Mar 2021, 15:49
either way the ground east of the Austrian Alps must be defended, either on the easter Italian border, or some line further east of north. Ultimately their lengthens the are to be defended.
Would have been necessary many forces to defend the Ljubljana gap and the other Alpine passes? Manstein seems to have thought It could be done with few troops.
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
13 Mar 2021, 15:49
Stopping at the Northern Appinnes and defending the Po river valley looks like a better choice.
Would that have been a better choice than defending South of Rome?
I still wonder if it really would have taken more forces to defend the line of the Alps than to defend the Pisa-Rimini line.

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Re: The Germans withdraw from Italy in early 1944

#13

Post by Peter89 » 14 Mar 2021, 18:23

I wonder if Northern Italy / the Po valley was an agricultural and industrial territory worth to be protected?
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

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Re: The Germans withdraw from Italy in early 1944

#14

Post by Juan G. C. » 15 Mar 2021, 18:43

Juan G. C. wrote:
14 Mar 2021, 18:15
Juan G. C. wrote:
13 Mar 2021, 17:18
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
13 Mar 2021, 15:49
either way the ground east of the Austrian Alps must be defended, either on the easter Italian border, or some line further east of north. Ultimately their lengthens the are to be defended.
Would have been necessary many forces to defend the Ljubljana gap and the other Alpine passes? Manstein seems to have thought It could be done with few troops.
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
13 Mar 2021, 15:49
Stopping at the Northern Appinnes and defending the Po river valley looks like a better choice.
Would that have been a better choice than defending South of Rome?
I still wonder if it really would have taken more forces to defend the line of the Alps than to defend the Pisa-Rimini line.
Not only Manstein, but also Rundstedt, at least after the War, believed It would have taken few a few divisiones to defend the line of the Alps. After the War he said: "that frightful 'boot' of a country should have been evacuated. Mussolini should have been left where he was, and we should have held a decent front with a few divisions on the Alpine frontier. They should not have taken away the best divisions front me in the West in order to send them to Italy. That's my private view."

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Re: The Germans withdraw from Italy in early 1944

#15

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 15 Mar 2021, 19:19

Well, the Alps cant be operationally flanked by amphibious operations. Confronted by that defense position a astute Allied leader is going to send a hefty portion of Alexanders Army Group elsewhere. Churchill would favor the Balkans. Marshal back in the US and Morgan at the COSSAC offices in London would be thinking of earlier operations into France. Theres a lot of pros and cons to all that, but the Allied leaders were not prone to sit idle.

One of the things that struck me is how Rundsteadt shorted the defense of southern France between the autumn of 1943 & the summer of 1944. He might have larger numbers of good quality mobile corps were Italy abandoned, but his track record for attention to the south littoral is weak. My bet would be any savings sent to him from the former Italian front would be deployed in NW Europe, with a infantry crops sent to the Alps along the French/Italian border.

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