Was the Soviet Union capable of invading and occupying all of Hokkaido had World War II continued past August 1945?

[Futurist]

Was the Soviet Union capable of invading and occupying all of Hokkaido had World War II continued past August 1945? I am asking this question because if this would have indeed occurred, then a whopping four Asian countries could have ended up being divided into a capitalist half and a Communist half as a result of the Cold War: Specifically Japan, Korea, China, and Vietnam. So, I'm wondering what the Soviet Union's naval capabilities in late 1945 were and whether it was actually capable of launching a successful amphibious invasion of Hokkaido and to conquer this entire island in the event that World War II in Asia would have lasted for even longer than it did in real life. Also, I am assuming that, in such a scenario, a Soviet conquest of both Honshu and any Japanese islands to the south of Honshu would have been completely, 100% unrealistic, correct?

As a side note, what would the effects of a Communist Hokkaido have been had this actually been plausible? Would there have been an eventual Japanese reunification in the 1990s or whenever in this scenario, or would a Communist Hokkaido have survived up to the present-day just like North Korea did in real life--and possibly as a rogue state as well, similar to North Korea in real life?

Any thoughts on all of this?

[OpanaPointer]

(From memory) IIRC, the local commander was going to sling two divisions at Hokkaido and Stalin canx'd it the day before it was to go down. The Red Army had bragging rights at stake but they also had to clean up the rest of the Japanese forces on the mainland. (With Chinese forces of course.)

[Futurist]

(From memory) IIRC, the local commander was going to sling two divisions at Hokkaido and Stalin canx'd it the day before it was to go down. The Red Army had bragging rights at stake but they also had to clean up the rest of the Japanese forces on the mainland. (With Chinese forces of course.)

Do you personally think that a Soviet invasion of Hokkaido would have actually succeeded?

Also, I subsequently came across this Wikipedia article:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_ ... f_Hokkaido

Apparently Stalin wanted this to be the Soviet occupation zone in Hokkaido (in the northern half of Hokkaido):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_ ... o_Line.png



But this doesn't actually seem like it would be a very viable country, would it? An independent Communist North Hokkaido, I mean?

Also, do you think that, had FDR lived longer, he would have actually been willing to give the Soviet Union an occupation zone in some or all of Hokkaido?

[OpanaPointer]

I don't have enough info to judge the possibility of success, just that the top Russian in the area was going to try it. I'm nowhere near my books right, sorry.

[Futurist]

Fair enough; thank you anyway.

[OpanaPointer]

C.A.R.L. may have an evaluation of that situation. Some real gems buried in there.

[Carl Schwamberger]

... . So, I'm wondering what the Soviet Union's naval capabilities in late 1945 were and whether it was actually capable of launching a successful amphibious invasion of Hokkaido ...

Capable? The Red forces executed several amphib landings along the Pacific coast, mostly in Korea IIRC. Some very successful, some not so much. Previous the US had sent several hundred landing craft to the Soviet far east for this purpose. The Army & Navy had four years of experience at littoral warfare, including executing some small and large beach landings. What they retained from that experience for use against Japan I can't say.

[OpanaPointer]

... . So, I'm wondering what the Soviet Union's naval capabilities in late 1945 were and whether it was actually capable of launching a successful amphibious invasion of Hokkaido ...

Capable? The Red forces executed several amphib landings along the Pacific coast, mostly in Korea IIRC. Some very successful, some not so much. Previous the US had sent several hundred landing craft to the Soviet far east for this purpose. The Army & Navy had four years of experience at littoral warfare, including executing some small and large beach landings. What they retained from that experience for use against Japan I can't say.

And Operation Hula sent them several boats worthy of this exercise.

[Carl Schwamberger]

Deleted

[Thumpalumpacus]

This shows a interpretation of the German operating strength just before the Big Week period. It comes closer to the magical 2000. Note the substantial portion of night fighters. The commitment of those to the day battle is bit more understandable in that context. Potentially a increase of 30%

LW Allocation Dec 43.png

Wrong thread?

[Carl Schwamberger]

Sure is

[OpanaPointer]

C'est la guerre.

[Futurist]

C.A.R.L. may have an evaluation of that situation. Some real gems buried in there.

What exactly is C.A.R.L.?

[OpanaPointer]

Combined Arms Research Library, depository for historical documents for the US military. I have food handy and a place to kip down when I go in there.

[T. A. Gardner]

There are two things that work against Soviet success in a Hokkaido invasion:

First, is the availability of landing craft. While the US sent the Russians several hundred in 1945, these were hardly really viable for a sustained invasion over open ocean. The types sent to the Pacific included:

15 LCT-6 type
30 LCI
54 LCM(3)

The Soviets might have supplemented these with improvised landing craft such as trawlers or other small vessels. These landing craft would travel at 6 to 8 knots.
This means that they could put say a regiment or two ashore in a single landing wave at best with a second wave being landed a day or two later at the earliest.

The second problem is moving supplies to support the combat forces after they land. This would require merchant ships along with escorts to accomplish as well as the capture of a suitable port.

The Soviets by late 1945 simply don't have the necessary naval forces in the Pacific to make a large amphibious landing against Japan / Hokkaido. Sure, they could probably land, might even secure a beachhead, but it would be a slow and very expensive build up to do anything more.