FDR lives until at least March 1949

[Futurist]

What if FDR would have somehow been in better health and would have thus managed to live until at least the end of his fourth term in March 1949? Just how would a surviving FDR have handled the final four years of his term? I'm specifically thinking of the aftermath of World War II in Europe here, finishing up World War II in Asia (for instance, do both Hiroshima and Nagasaki still get nuked? Does the Soviet Union actually get its own occupation zone in Japan in this scenario?), and subsequent global developments in the aftermath of World War II. For instance, does French Indochina get its independence much earlier in this scenario? I know that FDR was an opponent of French rule in Indochina. Does the Morgenthau Plan actually get implemented in regards to Germany in this scenario? Or does it still get cancelled? Does containment still officially become a US policy in regards to Communism, and is NATO still created on schedule? What about the Marshall Plan? Does it still occur in this scenario? Does a surviving FDR support the creation of Israel in this scenario? Just how does FDR handle crises such as the Greek Civil War, Chinese Civil War, and the Berlin Blockade? Do US-Soviet relations deteriorate less fast with a surviving FDR?

I'm assuming that Thomas E. Dewey wins the US Presidency in 1948 in this scenario since Harry S. Truman won't actually have an incumbency advantage in this scenario. If so, what consequences would that have down the line in Korea and elsewhere?

Any thoughts on all of this?

[maltesefalcon]

I'm assuming that Thomas E. Dewey wins the US Presidency in 1948 in this scenario since Harry S. Truman won't actually have an incumbency advantage in this scenario. If so, what consequences would that have down the line in Korea and elsewhere?

Any thoughts on all of this?

Why would you make such an assumption? There was no guarantee that under these new circumstances Truman would garner enough support to gain the nomination. Nor Dewey for that matter.

Aside from that, having not been the incumbent president may actually have worked for Truman, not the opposite. He would not have a track record to attack, as policy on most issues falls at the feet of the president and Congress.

[Futurist]

I'm assuming that Thomas E. Dewey wins the US Presidency in 1948 in this scenario since Harry S. Truman won't actually have an incumbency advantage in this scenario. If so, what consequences would that have down the line in Korea and elsewhere?

Any thoughts on all of this?

Why would you make such an assumption? There was no guarantee that under these new circumstances Truman would garner enough support to gain the nomination. Nor Dewey for that matter.

Aside from that, having not been the incumbent president may actually have worked for Truman, not the opposite. He would not have a track record to attack, as policy on most issues falls at the feet of the president and Congress.

Agreed about Truman, but I'm much less sure about Dewey. Internationalism was already widespread in the GOP by 1948, no? Why would that have changed in this scenario?

[maltesefalcon]

Let me elaborate further why I think the Truman/Dewey card should not simply be assumed as a given:

Truman was a compromise; chosen to appease fears of more radical options if Roosevelt died in office.

Six VPs in history have tried and failed to obtain their party's nomination for a presidential run. So one should not just assume that Truman would be a shoo-in candidate in 1948.

Dewey had already lost once. IMHO he was allowed to run again against Truman because it was felt Truman was a weak opponent and would lose.

If the Dems picked a stronger candidate, Dewey may have been passed over. In any case, he failed to beat Truman IRL (and Roosevelt four years prior); so there was no guarantee he could prevail over anyone else. Historically, the GOP had little patience for failure. AFAIK Nixon was the only other GOP candidate for president to get the nomination, after a failed previous campaign.

It would have been interesting to see if Ike or MacArthur could have been persuaded to run as the GOP candidate in 1948.

[Futurist]

If MacArthur runs as the GOP presidential candidate in 1948, wins, and then the Korean War starts under his watch, then the US is going to be nuking China, isn't it?

[Cantankerous]

If MacArthur runs as the GOP presidential candidate in 1948, wins, and then the Korean War starts under his watch, then the US is going to be nuking China, isn't it?

Douglas MacArthur could have decided not to nuke China had he run as GOP presidential nominee in the 1948 election and won that election, and the Korean War started under his watch. Instead, he would have ordered the US Air Force to undercut Chinese support for the North Korean armed forces in the Korean War by conducting conventional bombing raids on Chinese bases and factories in Manchuria, and destroying the bridges crossing the Yalu River from China to North Korea. He also wanted to force China to withdraw its troops from Korea by allowing Chiang Kai-shek's forces invade mainland China and force Mao Zedong to step down.