What if Joseon dynasty did allow Hideyoshi forces the passage to Northwest China

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What if Joseon dynasty did allow Hideyoshi forces the passage to Northwest China

#1

Post by ghost1275 » 17 Mar 2021, 20:27

Would Imjin war ended in Japan's favor? How deep do you believe the Japanese contingent can go, any realistic chance of reaching/occupying Peking?

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Re: What if Joseon dynasty did allow Hideyoshi forces the passage to Northwest China

#2

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 21 Mar 2021, 00:15

Had to do the web search thing to understand this one. It refers way back to the 16th Century CE.


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Re: What if Joseon dynasty did allow Hideyoshi forces the passage to Northwest China

#3

Post by Loïc » 21 Mar 2021, 00:32

I knew it was the largest military operation until the 20th century but in a forum oriented to WWII and the Western World I am not surprised by the lack of replies :wink:

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Re: What if Joseon dynasty did allow Hideyoshi forces the passage to Northwest China

#4

Post by Futurist » 21 Mar 2021, 00:36

ghost1275 wrote:
17 Mar 2021, 20:27
Would Imjin war ended in Japan's favor? How deep do you believe the Japanese contingent can go, any realistic chance of reaching/occupying Peking?
I suspect that any Japanese invasion of China in such a scenario would quickly find itself overstretched, similar to the Second Sino-Japanese War in real life, except here the Japanese won't actually have the advantage of greater industrialization to benefit them.

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Re: What if Joseon dynasty did allow Hideyoshi forces the passage to Northwest China

#5

Post by Futurist » 21 Mar 2021, 00:40

Interestingly enough, based on their extremely elevated terrain, the mountains between northern Korea and China might make a good "natural border" between the Japanese and Chinese spheres of influence in such a scenario:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... graphy.png

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Re: What if Joseon dynasty did allow Hideyoshi forces the passage to Northwest China

#6

Post by ghost1275 » 21 Mar 2021, 17:48

Futurist wrote:
21 Mar 2021, 00:36
ghost1275 wrote:
17 Mar 2021, 20:27
Would Imjin war ended in Japan's favor? How deep do you believe the Japanese contingent can go, any realistic chance of reaching/occupying Peking?
I suspect that any Japanese invasion of China in such a scenario would quickly find itself overstretched, similar to the Second Sino-Japanese War in real life, except here the Japanese won't actually have the advantage of greater industrialization to benefit them.
well... to be fair at the end of 16th century Japan possessed the best professional military in the world. The samurai class and classic Japanese warfare was both at their zenith. Netflix series of Age of Samurai covers this era, when the warring domains of feudal Japan was about to united again under Shogunate for the last time. The Japanese invading forces were very well organized and trained, equipped with Arquebus in addition to Katana and arrows. The Korean and Chinese armies weren't really a good match for the Japanese, not unlike the 20th century Sino-Japanese War. Japan's main weakness was again inadequate logistics. A force of 100K probably wasn't be sufficient enough to conquer China in its entirety, but the occupation of Korea and Northeast China (Manchuria) was not entirely out of reach.

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Re: What if Joseon dynasty did allow Hideyoshi forces the passage to Northwest China

#7

Post by Futurist » 21 Mar 2021, 21:56

ghost1275 wrote:
21 Mar 2021, 17:48
Futurist wrote:
21 Mar 2021, 00:36
ghost1275 wrote:
17 Mar 2021, 20:27
Would Imjin war ended in Japan's favor? How deep do you believe the Japanese contingent can go, any realistic chance of reaching/occupying Peking?
I suspect that any Japanese invasion of China in such a scenario would quickly find itself overstretched, similar to the Second Sino-Japanese War in real life, except here the Japanese won't actually have the advantage of greater industrialization to benefit them.
well... to be fair at the end of 16th century Japan possessed the best professional military in the world. The samurai class and classic Japanese warfare was both at their zenith. Netflix series of Age of Samurai covers this era, when the warring domains of feudal Japan was about to united again under Shogunate for the last time. The Japanese invading forces were very well organized and trained, equipped with Arquebus in addition to Katana and arrows. The Korean and Chinese armies weren't really a good match for the Japanese, not unlike the 20th century Sino-Japanese War. Japan's main weakness was again inadequate logistics. A force of 100K probably wasn't be sufficient enough to conquer China in its entirety, but the occupation of Korea and Northeast China (Manchuria) was not entirely out of reach.
Interesting. Thanks. Anyway, do you think that the Chinese would be able to stop the Japanese at the outskirts of Peking, when the Japanese could be logistically overextended?

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Re: What if Joseon dynasty did allow Hideyoshi forces the passage to Northwest China

#8

Post by ghost1275 » 22 Mar 2021, 17:08

Futurist wrote:
21 Mar 2021, 21:56
ghost1275 wrote:
21 Mar 2021, 17:48
Futurist wrote:
21 Mar 2021, 00:36
ghost1275 wrote:
17 Mar 2021, 20:27
Would Imjin war ended in Japan's favor? How deep do you believe the Japanese contingent can go, any realistic chance of reaching/occupying Peking?
I suspect that any Japanese invasion of China in such a scenario would quickly find itself overstretched, similar to the Second Sino-Japanese War in real life, except here the Japanese won't actually have the advantage of greater industrialization to benefit them.
well... to be fair at the end of 16th century Japan possessed the best professional military in the world. The samurai class and classic Japanese warfare was both at their zenith. Netflix series of Age of Samurai covers this era, when the warring domains of feudal Japan was about to united again under Shogunate for the last time. The Japanese invading forces were very well organized and trained, equipped with Arquebus in addition to Katana and arrows. The Korean and Chinese armies weren't really a good match for the Japanese, not unlike the 20th century Sino-Japanese War. Japan's main weakness was again inadequate logistics. A force of 100K probably wasn't be sufficient enough to conquer China in its entirety, but the occupation of Korea and Northeast China (Manchuria) was not entirely out of reach.
Interesting. Thanks. Anyway, do you think that the Chinese would be able to stop the Japanese at the outskirts of Peking, when the Japanese could be logistically overextended?
Between Korea and the heartland of China sits the vastness of Manchuria. If the Jurchen tribes (proto-Manchu people, eventual ruling class of the Qing Dynasty) decided to cooperate with the Japanese, the likelihood of successful campaign was pretty decent.

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Re: What if Joseon dynasty did allow Hideyoshi forces the passage to Northwest China

#9

Post by Futurist » 22 Mar 2021, 19:29

ghost1275 wrote:
22 Mar 2021, 17:08
Futurist wrote:
21 Mar 2021, 21:56
ghost1275 wrote:
21 Mar 2021, 17:48
Futurist wrote:
21 Mar 2021, 00:36
ghost1275 wrote:
17 Mar 2021, 20:27
Would Imjin war ended in Japan's favor? How deep do you believe the Japanese contingent can go, any realistic chance of reaching/occupying Peking?
I suspect that any Japanese invasion of China in such a scenario would quickly find itself overstretched, similar to the Second Sino-Japanese War in real life, except here the Japanese won't actually have the advantage of greater industrialization to benefit them.
well... to be fair at the end of 16th century Japan possessed the best professional military in the world. The samurai class and classic Japanese warfare was both at their zenith. Netflix series of Age of Samurai covers this era, when the warring domains of feudal Japan was about to united again under Shogunate for the last time. The Japanese invading forces were very well organized and trained, equipped with Arquebus in addition to Katana and arrows. The Korean and Chinese armies weren't really a good match for the Japanese, not unlike the 20th century Sino-Japanese War. Japan's main weakness was again inadequate logistics. A force of 100K probably wasn't be sufficient enough to conquer China in its entirety, but the occupation of Korea and Northeast China (Manchuria) was not entirely out of reach.
Interesting. Thanks. Anyway, do you think that the Chinese would be able to stop the Japanese at the outskirts of Peking, when the Japanese could be logistically overextended?
Between Korea and the heartland of China sits the vastness of Manchuria. If the Jurchen tribes (proto-Manchu people, eventual ruling class of the Qing Dynasty) decided to cooperate with the Japanese, the likelihood of successful campaign was pretty decent.
So, we could have a situation similar to what occurred with China in the later Song Dynasty, when China was split north-to-south, except this time there would be different factions/groups?

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Re: What if Joseon dynasty did allow Hideyoshi forces the passage to Northwest China

#10

Post by David Thompson » 22 Mar 2021, 21:31

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