Lincoln loses the 1860 election

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maltesefalcon
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Lincoln loses the 1860 election

Post by maltesefalcon » 16 Jun 2021 20:56

History shows that Abraham Lincoln won by a large margin of Electoral College votes in 1860.
But what if the Democratic party had not split?
Between Douglas and Breckenridge they had a large enough popular vote to change history if one had stepped down in time.

I'm proposing the Democrats see the writing on the wall early enough and don't run two candidates, North and South. Breckenridge as a a former VP and a Southerner, probably would have had the better chance to get elected. He would have been better equipped to control radicals and secessionists in the South as well.

So Lincoln loses in a tight race. Perhaps secession and war may have been avoided as a result?

History Learner
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Re: Lincoln loses the 1860 election

Post by History Learner » 16 Jun 2021 21:44

With a close race and a Lemmons v. New York making its way through the Courts, it's entirely likely you get a Northern Secession instead of a Southern one here.

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Takao
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Re: Lincoln loses the 1860 election

Post by Takao » 16 Jun 2021 21:48

Doubtful...Although whichever Democratic nominee would win the popular vote, he would still lose in the Electoral College. Adding up the totals from the 3 others, Lincoln still wins the Electoral College by a good amount.
Lincoln = 180
Breckenridge + Bell + Douglas totals = 123

152 is needed to win.

The VP race goes the same way.

maltesefalcon
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Re: Lincoln loses the 1860 election

Post by maltesefalcon » 17 Jun 2021 02:24

Takao wrote:
16 Jun 2021 21:48
Doubtful...Although whichever Democratic nominee would win the popular vote, he would still lose in the Electoral College. Adding up the totals from the 3 others, Lincoln still wins the Electoral College by a good amount.
Lincoln = 180
Breckenridge + Bell + Douglas totals = 123

152 is needed to win.

The VP race goes the same way.
Yes but if there were less dissent perhaps things could have been different.

Per Wiki here is a breakdown of close states:

Close states

States where the margin of victory was under 1%:

Virginia 0.09% (156 votes)
Missouri 0.26% (429 votes)
California 0.61% (734 votes)
Maryland 0.79% (722 votes)

States where the margin of victory was under 5%:

Oregon 1.83% (270 votes)
Tennessee 3.17% (4,631 votes)
Illinois 3.52% (11,956 votes)
North Carolina 3.85% (3,717 votes)
New Jersey 3.74% (4,523 votes)
Louisiana 4.90% (2,477 votes)

States where the margin of victory was under 10%:

New York 7.42% (50,136 votes) (tipping point state for Lincoln victory)
Ohio 7.94% (34,388 votes)
Georgia 8.63% (9,216 votes)
Indiana 8.65% (23,524 votes)
Kentucky 8.83% (12,915 vote
s)

If all of these close contests had gone for Breckenridge he could have won the state and thus the college votes with it.

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Takao
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Re: Lincoln loses the 1860 election

Post by Takao » 17 Jun 2021 03:37

maltesefalcon wrote:
17 Jun 2021 02:24
States where the margin of victory was under 1%:

Virginia 0.09% (156 votes)
Missouri 0.26% (429 votes)
California 0.61% (734 votes)
Maryland 0.79% (722 votes)

States where the margin of victory was under 5%:

Oregon 1.83% (270 votes)
Tennessee 3.17% (4,631 votes)
Illinois 3.52% (11,956 votes)
North Carolina 3.85% (3,717 votes)
New Jersey 3.74% (4,523 votes)
Louisiana 4.90% (2,477 votes)

States where the margin of victory was under 10%:

New York 7.42% (50,136 votes) (tipping point state for Lincoln victory)
Ohio 7.94% (34,388 votes)
Georgia 8.63% (9,216 votes)
Indiana 8.65% (23,524 votes)
Kentucky 8.83% (12,915 votes)

If all of these close contests had gone for Breckenridge he could have won the state and thus the college votes with it.
Nope, as I said earlier, I lumped the states won by Bell, Breckinridge, and Douglas together. Thus, we only have to concern ourselves with the close States Lincoln won -
California, Oregon, Illinois, New York, Ohio, and Indiana.

By combining votes for Bell, Breckinridge, and Douglas together:
Lincoln would have lost California(4 votes), Oregon(3 votes),
Lincoln still would have won Illinois(11 votes), New York(35 votes), Ohio(23 votes), and Indiana(13 votes)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1860_Unit ... s_by_state

So, you are still dead in the water.

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