You're right that a Germany planning a two-summer campaign in Russia would have raised an army larger than the 85,000-man minimal delta I've proposed. A bit of background on why will probably be familiar to most readers but is good to keep in mind (as my OP neglected).TheMarcksPlan wrote: ↑18 Jul 2021 03:22I’ll propose some other notions in another post. The goal will be to reach some reflective equilibrium regarding Germany’s likely ATL resource commitments, east vs. west, had Hitler taken the SU seriously.KDF33 wrote: ↑17 Jul 2021 20:29What does Germany do with the extra manpower? First, it increases the size of the Wehrmacht by 800,000 men, of which 200,000 form additional divisions to allow for a double-envelopment in the Ukraine, and 600,000 are allocated as additional replacements for Barbarossa.
Hitler constantly worried about American intervention and took remarkable steps not to confront her (e.g. restraining Uboat commanders). Later dismissive remarks (1942 and onwards) about American military power (e.g. Americans can only build razor blades) should be read as desperate attempts to reassure himself and others. The looming American threat heavily influenced Barbarossa, as Germany and the Second World War v.4 relates:
The compulsion to swift action sprang from the steadily increasing American
potential, even though Hitler did not believe the United States would be ready
for war until 1942. p.28
Hitler's accurate perception that America could be a belligerent in '42 provided psychological motivation to believe he could finish the SU in '41. As ATL Hitler doesn't give in to wishful thinking, he's squarely confronting a "1.5-front" war against a hobbled SU and mobilizing US in '42.on 17 December 1940
Hitler summed up his global political estimation of the situation underlying
his decision to go to war against the Soviet Union in the remark that ‘all
continental European problems’ would have to be solved in 1941 since ‘after
1942 the United States would be in a position to intervene’ p.47
Under this strategic concept, Hitler knows that '42 will require sufficient land forces both to execute a massive second offensive in the East and to handle an Anglo-American incursion in the West.
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As an aside, some have suggested that Hitler perceiving inability to destroy the SU in '41 would imply no attacking the SU. This suggestion can firmly rejected, IMO, as (1) war in the East was Hitler's raison d'etre from the early '20's, (2) an incipient Soviet colossus would threaten Hitler's rear and tie down valuable resources in the inevitable war against Anglo-American powers, and (3) the ATL supposes that Hitler accurately perceives Soviet strength as not to be taken lightly, but not so great as to preclude German victory.
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What planning implications? Hitler's accurate prediction of US threat in '42 implies that the "1.5-front" war requirements should be scheduled to come online by Spring '42, not necessarily during 1941. Nonetheless, the timeline for raising German fighting formations implies additional drafts during latter '41.
Regarding ATL Barbarossa, I'll take KDF33's suggestion of at least a 200k-man amplification of initial forces, which allows 10 mechanized divisions plus a hefty non-division slice (more assault gun battalions?). Perhaps it would be 400k initial delta - a 20div bonus - I'll discuss that option below.
For replacements, KDF33's 600k additional means >900k overall, which seems a dim German view of the coming war. Germany would probably prefer to tolerate some shortfalls in Ostheer and use manpower to establish new divisions for Spring '42. ATL replacement stash would probably be ~same as OTL. But Germany would have men in training for Spring '41, flowing to field units by Fall. OTL the Heer delayed inducting the class of 1922 (JG22), as it wanted to wait for releases from Ostheer to economy during Fall '41 (lol). As result, JG22 wasn't fully trained when needed late in Barbarossa.
In sum, I'll propose a total 600k recruitment delta to Ostheer by end '41, timed about as follows (Column G showing ATL draft differential, Column H the % from industry):
This still allows a substantial production delta, easily able to equip a larger army and increase air/sea production.
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Between 600k more draftees and 300k fewer net Ostheer casualties up to April '42, by Spring '42 the Feldheer will have 900,000 more soldiers. Let's try apportioning them as follows:
- OTL Ostheer plus 100k (for replacements during '42 campaign to the Urals and Baku).
- OTL Westheer plus 800k in ~40 divisions, including at least 5 more mechanized formed over the winter in France.
ATL Westheer takes Malta in Spring '42, sends ~3 mechanized divisions to Rommel. Reinforces Narvik with a few divisions.
By June/July '42, Hitler is flush with ~twice OTL's agricultural loot from occupied SU - 3mil tons of grain and other foodstuffs.
That summer, he says to Franco (summary): "Time to enter the war. There are 40 German divisions and a million tons of Russian grain on your border. Which would you prefer I order into Spain?" Spain takes the grain, begins redeploying its army from the Pyrenees to Spanish Morocco and the Canaries.
After Franco joins the war, Westheer and Ostheer begin transferring divisions to Thrace and Aegean islands to pressure Turkey into Axis or granting passage to Syria/Iraq. Likely the same result as with Franco, as Turkey knows Britain/America can't send them much help and their MidEast position will rapidly collapse with an Axis or acquiescent Turkey.
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It's also feasible under this ATL to pressure/invade Turkey in Spring '42, rather than Spain. Maybe that's the better path but invasion would strain logistics during Ostheer's second offensive in a way that forcing Franco's hand would not.
Any way, open to other ATL concepts based on KDF33/my general concept of a larger Heer backed by greater production in 1941/42.
