Nagumo Killed by B-26 Marauder at Midway

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Nagumo Killed by B-26 Marauder at Midway

#1

Post by DixieDivision1418 » 13 Jul 2021, 13:53

In the early stages of the battle of Midway, as the Americans made their first response to the Japanese attack, four Army B-26 Marauders made an attack on Akagi. Two were shot down before launching the torpedoes they'd been modified to carry, and the two that did manage to do so missed. One of these however, after being fatally hit, continued on its course, aiming straight for Akagi's bridge. It seemed sure to hit, but at the last moment spun out of its course and into the sea.

If the Marauder had continued on its course, hitting the bridge of the Japanese flagship, RAdm Tamon Yamaguchi of CarDiv2 would have assumed command. Yamaguchi disagreed with Nagumo regarding the rearming of the Kate level bombers when an American carrier was spotted, believing they should be sent out as they were, with bombs instead of torpedoes.

Of course, it may be that even Yamaguchi's nerve is shaken by something as unfortunate as losing the commander and his staff, but if he decides to send the bombers out with bombs instead of torpedoes, the attack on the Yorktown would very likely be much larger. The dive bombers could score more hits, allowing the Kates to deal her even more damage, even if the Japanese plans are carrying the wrong type of ordnance.

This would also avoid the disastrous historical situation, where the Japanese plans were being refueled and rearmed, with bombs improperly stashed when the US bombers attacked.

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Re: Nagumo Killed by B-26 Marauder at Midway

#2

Post by Takao » 13 Jul 2021, 20:33

You have the events reversed. The B-26 missed Akagi's bridge and the crashed into the sea. Either plane or pilot were to crippled to correct course to hit Akagi's bridge.

As to Yamaguchi. His message was that the strike should be launched immediately...Did this mean that the whole strike should be launched or just his Hiryu & Soryu strike package of dive bombers? I don't remember clarification of the matter if any.

Either way, launching the strike, whole or halved, would thereby delay the recovery of the Midway strike - which would need to be refuelled and rearmed. As such, the returning strike would be landing, refueling, and rearming, when the US carrier strike came in. So, as I see it, the Japanese situation aboard their carriers has not changed at all.

The only change is that Yorktown may catch a few more bombs from Soryu's Vals, but the Kates of Akagi & Kaga will more than likely miss as the US B-17 level bombers did.


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Re: Nagumo Killed by B-26 Marauder at Midway

#3

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 15 Jul 2021, 04:28

This
Takao wrote:
13 Jul 2021, 20:33
... The only change is that Yorktown may catch a few more bombs from Soryu's Vals, but the Kates of Akagi & Kaga will more than likely miss as the US B-17 level bombers did.
The B5N could not dive bomb of course. As a level bomber vs moving ships it was only slightly more successful than the B17. What success it did have with bombs against ships underway was when attacking at low altitude, which made it vulnerable to AA fires. Its not against the odds the B5N strike/s get no significant hits with bombs & the Kates take 50% or better losses.

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Re: Nagumo Killed by B-26 Marauder at Midway

#4

Post by maltesefalcon » 15 Jul 2021, 18:40

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
15 Jul 2021, 04:28
This
Takao wrote:
13 Jul 2021, 20:33
... The only change is that Yorktown may catch a few more bombs from Soryu's Vals, but the Kates of Akagi & Kaga will more than likely miss as the US B-17 level bombers did.
The B5N could not dive bomb of course. As a level bomber vs moving ships it was only slightly more successful than the B17. What success it did have with bombs against ships underway was when attacking at low altitude, which made it vulnerable to AA fires. Its not against the odds the B5N strike/s get no significant hits with bombs & the Kates take 50% or better losses.
Bombing ships from altitude proved to be much more difficult in practice than in theory. But the B-17s did redeem themselves in the Pacific in their long range reconnaissance abilities and bombing land based targets in PTO and ETO.

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Re: Nagumo Killed by B-26 Marauder at Midway

#5

Post by glenn239 » 15 Jul 2021, 18:53

DixieDivision1418 wrote:
13 Jul 2021, 13:53
If the Marauder had continued on its course, hitting the bridge of the Japanese flagship, RAdm Tamon Yamaguchi of CarDiv2 would have assumed command. Yamaguchi disagreed with Nagumo regarding the rearming of the Kate level bombers when an American carrier was spotted, believing they should be sent out as they were, with bombs instead of torpedoes.

Of course, it may be that even Yamaguchi's nerve is shaken by something as unfortunate as losing the commander and his staff, but if he decides to send the bombers out with bombs instead of torpedoes, the attack on the Yorktown would very likely be much larger. The dive bombers could score more hits, allowing the Kates to deal her even more damage, even if the Japanese plans are carrying the wrong type of ordnance.
The decision to rearm with bombs was taken after the B-26 just missed the bridge of the Akagi. So, if the hit had instead killed Nagumo, it would be Yamaguchi that would decide whether to rearm the reserve wave or not. Since, as you suggest, he was more concerned about enemy carriers, it follows that he might not decide to rearm the torpedo bombers at all, meaning that when Tone 4 reports a naval sighting after 0730, the torpedo bombers are armed and ready to spot.

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Re: Nagumo Killed by B-26 Marauder at Midway

#6

Post by glenn239 » 15 Jul 2021, 18:56

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
15 Jul 2021, 04:28
The B5N could not dive bomb of course. As a level bomber vs moving ships it was only slightly more successful than the B17. What success it did have with bombs against ships underway was when attacking at low altitude, which made it vulnerable to AA fires. Its not against the odds the B5N strike/s get no significant hits with bombs & the Kates take 50% or better losses.
The issue is not whether the B5N's can hit a carrier while level bombing. It's whether or not the USN's combat air patrol attacks the level bombers and lets the dive bombers come through. That is to say, the effect of the level bombers is not so much their direct bombing results, it's their indirect diversionary ability to draw fighters away from the dive bombers and whatever torpedo bombers were launched.

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Re: Nagumo Killed by B-26 Marauder at Midway

#7

Post by glenn239 » 15 Jul 2021, 19:09

Takao wrote:
13 Jul 2021, 20:33
As to Yamaguchi. His message was that the strike should be launched immediately...Did this mean that the whole strike should be launched or just his Hiryu & Soryu strike package of dive bombers? I don't remember clarification of the matter if any.
Osamu Tagaya indicates the signal was,

'Deem it advisable we launch strike immediately with ordnance as is.'

So what Yamaguchi wanted to do was launch everything quickly, no matter what the armament status of any of the planes actually was.
Either way, launching the strike, whole or halved, would thereby delay the recovery of the Midway strike - which would need to be refuelled and rearmed. As such, the returning strike would be landing, refueling, and rearming, when the US carrier strike came in. So, as I see it, the Japanese situation aboard their carriers has not changed at all.
If Nagumo starts to spot at 0830, his strike is airborne around 0900. Midway will start to land by 0915 and be fully recovered maybe by 0945. Part of me wants to say that surely Nagumo would refrain from arming aircraft with enemy airstrikes inbound, but Nagumo was so recklessly incompetent I think you are probably right. Nagumo will arm the Midway strike as they land, so will be caught with armed aircraft aboard.
The only change is that Yorktown may catch a few more bombs from Soryu's Vals, but the Kates of Akagi & Kaga will more than likely miss as the US B-17 level bombers did.
The strike effects depend on the Vals as you suggest. Hiryu's hit rate was 3 for 7, so if Egusa's 36 dive bombers get on target and score at that ratio, that's 15 direct bomb hits. That's two US carriers knocked out. On the defensive front, Akagi's bomb hits caused her torpedo squadron and ammunition in the hanger in the torpedo bomber section to ignite. That can't happen if the torpedo bombers are now airborne and the bombs have been stowed properly between 0900 and 1030. So Akagi is probably capable of launching aircraft, (but not air strikes).

Soryu and Kaga are knocked out for certain. But, with Kaga again, her torpedo bombers are aloft and her bombs are stowed. She will shake off the 4 or 5 direct hits and retire at high speed, like Shokaku at Santa Cruz.

HIryu will launch a torpedo strike around noon, then recover the survivors of the morning strike and have them rearmed by maybe 2pm. These survivors will be far more numerous than historical, but damaged aircraft will presumably be thrown overboard to make roon. Still, Hiryu could launch two more strikes of around 36 planes before being hit around 4pm, that afternoon. This, of course, assumes that Spruance is still able to launch his afternoon strike.

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Re: Nagumo Killed by B-26 Marauder at Midway

#8

Post by DixieDivision1418 » 16 Jul 2021, 02:16

glenn239 wrote:
15 Jul 2021, 19:09
Is there any indication of how many Japanese aircraft carriers would survive this altered Midway?

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Re: Nagumo Killed by B-26 Marauder at Midway

#9

Post by T. A. Gardner » 16 Jul 2021, 03:10

This scenario has some issues.

First, Japanese doctrine was to keep planes hangered while engaged in CAP operations. If you begin spotting a strike the only CAP available is whatever's up when you start. If a US raid arrives, the CAP fighters will run dry of ammunition in a matter of seconds and then be useless. You won't be able to rotate new planes up because of the strike being spotted on deck.
Worse, once the strike launches, the Midway strike returning has to land delaying any shift in CAP even longer. Thus, the Japanese carriers are all but defenseless for almost a two hour window.

Second, if I recall correctly, only the Yorktown was spotted which means any strike against that battle group misses attacking Enterprise and Hornet that are in a separate group about 50 miles away. So, the Japanese get one carrier, have their dive bomber groups massacred by the US CAP, and are left defenseless while pushing out the strike ordered.

That means when US torpedo planes arrive on target, there are few CAP up, most have nothing but 7.7mm ammunition left, and that means the torpedo planes get through and at least successfully launch even if they do poorly in hitting targets. But even a few hits would be pretty much game over for the Japanese. They'd be forced to withdraw.
So, the end result is much the same. The Japanese lose or have seriously damaged four carriers and the US loses one.

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Re: Nagumo Killed by B-26 Marauder at Midway

#10

Post by Takao » 16 Jul 2021, 16:42

glenn239 wrote:
15 Jul 2021, 19:09
Osamu Tagaya indicates the signal was,

'Deem it advisable we launch strike immediately with ordnance as is.'

So what Yamaguchi wanted to do was launch everything quickly, no matter what the armament status of any of the planes actually was.
Yes, Glenn, but he is the only one, with the exception of another later Osprey title by Mark Chambers & Tony Holmes, whom I believe were just parroting his statement.

All other sources that I have read, American & Japanese, end with "immediately."

glenn239 wrote:
15 Jul 2021, 19:09
If Nagumo starts to spot at 0830, his strike is airborne around 0900. Midway will start to land by 0915 and be fully recovered maybe by 0945. Part of me wants to say that surely Nagumo would refrain from arming aircraft with enemy airstrikes inbound, but Nagumo was so recklessly incompetent I think you are probably right. Nagumo will arm the Midway strike as they land, so will be caught with armed aircraft aboard.
Problems...

The Midway SB2U & B-17 attacks are still ongoing at 830, so it won't be until 840 or 845 that the spot starts. The strike would require a minimum of 40 minutes, provided nothing goes wrong.
This bumps up against the opening of VB-8's torpedo attack around 920. So, few of the Midway strike will be able to land. But, this does not mean that the bombs are still safely stowed, if the Japanese are anticipating a rapid turnaround, the bombs and torpedoes will probably already be out and awaiting loading on to returning Japanese aircraft.

glenn239 wrote:
15 Jul 2021, 19:09
The strike effects depend on the Vals as you suggest. Hiryu's hit rate was 3 for 7, so if Egusa's 36 dive bombers get on target and score at that ratio, that's 15 direct bomb hits. That's two US carriers knocked out. On the defensive front, Akagi's bomb hits caused her torpedo squadron and ammunition in the hanger in the torpedo bomber section to ignite. That can't happen if the torpedo bombers are now airborne and the bombs have been stowed properly between 0900 and 1030. So Akagi is probably capable of launching aircraft, (but not air strikes).
Un-uh, Hiryu's hit rate was 3 for 18.(18 Val strike package with 13 lost, 3 damaged, 2 OK - of the 18 launched, only 7 survived to make their attacks).

Egusa had 18 Aichis not 36. The question is will Soryu's Vals be savaged by fighters as Hiryu's were(11 lost to Yorktown fighters).

2 carriers knocked out? Your presuming other carriers will be spotted & attacked...To which, I would presume that Egusa's Vals will be as harshly treated, if not more so, than Hiryu's Vals by Enterprise & Hornet. Which will lead to far less than 15 bomb hits for Egusa's divebombers.


glenn239 wrote:
15 Jul 2021, 19:09
Soryu and Kaga are knocked out for certain. But, with Kaga again, her torpedo bombers are aloft and her bombs are stowed. She will shake off the 4 or 5 direct hits and retire at high speed, like Shokaku at Santa Cruz.
This is, of course debateable, especially if the Japanese are preparing to refuel and rearm the returning Midway strike.

glenn239 wrote:
15 Jul 2021, 19:09
HIryu will launch a torpedo strike around noon, then recover the survivors of the morning strike and have them rearmed by maybe 2pm. These survivors will be far more numerous than historical, but damaged aircraft will presumably be thrown overboard to make roon. Still, Hiryu could launch two more strikes of around 36 planes before being hit around 4pm, that afternoon. This, of course, assumes that Spruance is still able to launch his afternoon strike.
This assumes any remaining strike aircraft have enough fuel to remain aloft by 1040-1050, when the American attacks end, about 2 1/2 hours after they were scheduled to land.

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Re: Nagumo Killed by B-26 Marauder at Midway

#11

Post by glenn239 » 16 Jul 2021, 18:14

DixieDivision1418 wrote:
16 Jul 2021, 02:16
Is there any indication of how many Japanese aircraft carriers would survive this altered Midway?
No indication. Both Kaga and Soryu would have arming squadrons on board, so would suffer severe hanger fires. But, it's only half the number of aircraft historically that would be burning in the hangers and the big 800kg bombs on Kaga might have been stowed by the time the carrier was hit.

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Re: Nagumo Killed by B-26 Marauder at Midway

#12

Post by glenn239 » 16 Jul 2021, 18:25

T. A. Gardner wrote:
16 Jul 2021, 03:10
First, Japanese doctrine was to keep planes hangered while engaged in CAP operations. If you begin spotting a strike the only CAP available is whatever's up when you start. If a US raid arrives, the CAP fighters will run dry of ammunition in a matter of seconds and then be useless. You won't be able to rotate new planes up because of the strike being spotted on deck.
Nagumo sent this message to his command the day before the battle, which reads in part,


"2. Change in plans may be necessitated by enemy actions. Bear this in mind in making preparations for assembling and taking aboard the air control units.


1st Air Fleet HQ was therefore aware that there could be a conflict between CAP rotation and spotting strikes. If you look at Shattered Sword's fighter sortie activity, you will see the actual fighting doctrine that the above excerpt pertained to. Just before 0830, (when 1st Division was about to recover the Midway strike), and again around 0930-0945 (when the 1st Division was preparing its counterattack force), the fighter records show the 1st Division 'salvo' launching all fighters for CAP at once. So, that was the method. When strike operations were about to close a deck to CAP fighters for an hour, the carrier would launch all CAP fighters at once to cover the gap in time.
Worse, once the strike launches, the Midway strike returning has to land delaying any shift in CAP even longer. Thus, the Japanese carriers are all but defenseless for almost a two hour window.
IIRC, according to the records, the Midway fighters were back in the air on CAP within about 30-40 minutes of landing.
Second, if I recall correctly, only the Yorktown was spotted which means any strike against that battle group misses attacking Enterprise and Hornet that are in a separate group about 50 miles away. So, the Japanese get one carrier, have their dive bomber groups massacred by the US CAP, and are left defenseless while pushing out the strike ordered.
That is possible, but Nagumo's overall position is superior to the historical case even if so. He has more aircraft still in the battle and three of his bombed carriers took less damage.
That means when US torpedo planes arrive on target, there are few CAP up, most have nothing but 7.7mm ammunition left, and that means the torpedo planes get through and at least successfully launch even if they do poorly in hitting targets. But even a few hits would be pretty much game over for the Japanese. They'd be forced to withdraw.
So, the end result is much the same. The Japanese lose or have seriously damaged four carriers and the US loses one.
Interesting how you jumped from the possibility that TF16 would not be attacked to the certainty it would not be attacked.

Assuming that Yorktown alone is knocked out around 10am, then Fletcher does not launch a scouting mission and Hiryu is not detected that afternoon. Hiryu will launch a torpedo strike around noon that will attack a different carrier, (since Yorktown will be visibly crippled). Then, Hiryu will launch another strike later in the afternoon using the survivors to the first counterattack. Since the first counterattack would be over 70 bombers, whatever strike Hiryu assembles will be stronger than either she could muster in the real battle. Take note that it is possible Akagi will contribute to this strike because, while her central elevator would be hit, fighters (or unarmed dive bombers) should be able to take off using the lower hanger and forward elevator. This assuming her hanger fires can be controlled.

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Re: Nagumo Killed by B-26 Marauder at Midway

#13

Post by glenn239 » 16 Jul 2021, 18:51

Takao wrote:
16 Jul 2021, 16:42
The Midway SB2U & B-17 attacks are still ongoing at 830, so it won't be until 840 or 845 that the spot starts. The strike would require a minimum of 40 minutes, provided nothing goes wrong.
What, you're thinking that Nagumo will radio Fletcher to ask whether anything is coming after the Vindicators so that he can spot without being shot at? :^) Nagumo would spot with the attack underway at 0830, just as Hiryu, (and, IMO Akagi) did later after 1030.
This bumps up against the opening of VB-8's torpedo attack around 920. So, few of the Midway strike will be able to land. But, this does not mean that the bombs are still safely stowed, if the Japanese are anticipating a rapid turnaround, the bombs and torpedoes will probably already be out and awaiting loading on to returning Japanese aircraft.
VT-8 was not going to halt landing operations on 4 carriers.
Egusa had 18 Aichis not 36. The question is will Soryu's Vals be savaged by fighters as Hiryu's were(11 lost to Yorktown fighters).
Egusa commands 36 dive bombers if launched at 0830, 18 from Hiryu, 16 from Soryu, 2 from Kaga. And the question is whether Egusa slips through unmolested if the level bombers took the CAP heat off the higher flying dive bombers.
2 carriers knocked out? Your presuming other carriers will be spotted & attacked...To which, I would presume that Egusa's Vals will be as harshly treated, if not more so, than Hiryu's Vals by Enterprise & Hornet. Which will lead to far less than 15 bomb hits for Egusa's divebombers.
Egusa's best case result seems about 2 carriers knocked out. Not just the dive bombers, but some number of torpedo bombers as well.
This is, of course debateable, especially if the Japanese are preparing to refuel and rearm the returning Midway strike.
The historical Kaga hanger fire was 26 Kates with 26 torpedoes and 18 or 26 800kg bombs, 17 dive bombers with 17 250kg bombs. The ahistorical (launch at 0830) scenario is about 17 dive bombers and 17 250kg bombs. Slice it any way we want, the Kaga's chances are better in the ahistorical scenario.
This assumes any remaining strike aircraft have enough fuel to remain aloft by 1040-1050, when the American attacks end, about 2 1/2 hours after they were scheduled to land.
If Nagumo launches at 0830 as per Yamaguchi's 'as is' suggestion, he's sending about 43 Kates armed with some combination of torpedoes, 800kg bombs, and some with no armament at all. He's also sending 36 dive bombers. for a total of something like 79 bombers in the strike. This group will attack around 1030am, then return to the Hiryu around 1230 and be recovered just after Hiryu launches her torpedo strike. Of the 79 bombers, easily 30 might have been shot down and another 20 might be too damaged to fly again. Guess what? That's still maybe 29 intact bombers that Hiryu can launch in an afternoon strike.

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