What if Germany withdrew from France after its surrender?

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glenn239
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Re: What if Germany withdrew from France after its surrender?

Post by glenn239 » 22 Jul 2021 21:51

historygeek2021 wrote:
22 Jul 2021 18:41
This is just hoping that everything goes well for Germany: France doesn't mind Germany occupying the Maginot Line and is too scared to fight.
You think Germany smashed the French army to pieces in 1940 in order to ask them whether they 'minded' the German army occupying the Maginot Line? And where did you confuse the inability to fight Germany without aircraft, artillery or armor in quantity, and the Germans with the Maginot Line versus the fear of fighting Germany in a war that France could not possibly win?
Britain sues for peace with Germany but goes to war with France for some reason.


Never said either of those things. Britain does not make peace with Germany and Britain will not want to go to war with France.
Russia abandons its historical interest in the Baltic and the Balkans for some reason, and instead chooses to go to war with Britain in the Middle East (which held only a small portion of the world's oil at the time), and the United States does nothing. And Germany does nothing - it's content with Poland, I guess. Nazis are no longer Nazis. French are no longer French. Russians are no longer Russians. What an ATL.
Why would Stalin and his 500 divisions allow the comparatively pathetic British army to hold India and the Middle East if war with Germany is not in the cards? Do you have any idea how much stronger the Soviet Union would be in Asia than was the British Empire if there were no Barbarossa?

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MarkF617
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Re: What if Germany withdrew from France after its surrender?

Post by MarkF617 » 22 Jul 2021 22:19

War with Germany is always on the cards. Stalin was well aware of the contents of Mein Kampf the Soviets were preparing to fight Germany. I never said it was inevitable the Soviets attack but it is more likely than them abandoning their traditional goals to go gallivanting off to India, China and Korea. As I said earlier there is realistically no scenario where Germany doesn't attack the Soviet Union as they only have a small window of opertunity where they thought they had a chance to win (they were wrong they had no chance). Britain's hope of winning lay with the USA and/or the USSR Getmany's only hope was to remove these threats thus since the USA was untouchable the USSR had to be removed. This was Germany's only hope, the hope that the British would throw in the towel as they could not defeat Britain.
All this is of course irrelevant ad thete is no chance what so ever of the Germans not occupying France. It took 2 World Wars to acheive this they were not going to let the French off.

Thanks

Mark.
You know you're British when you drive your German car to an Irish pub for a pint of Belgian beer before having an Indian meal. When you get home you sit on your Sweedish sofa and watch American programs on your Japanese TV.

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MarkF617
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Re: What if Germany withdrew from France after its surrender?

Post by MarkF617 » 22 Jul 2021 22:22

I am still waiting for someone to explain why there would not be a Barbarossa? I have explained why it would still happen the only explanation for it not to go ahead is handwavium and it doesn't happen thus the British are crushed by the Soviets not the Germans who live happily ever after in their European wonderland.

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Mark.
You know you're British when you drive your German car to an Irish pub for a pint of Belgian beer before having an Indian meal. When you get home you sit on your Sweedish sofa and watch American programs on your Japanese TV.

KDF33
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Re: What if Germany withdrew from France after its surrender?

Post by KDF33 » 22 Jul 2021 23:25

MarkF617 wrote:
22 Jul 2021 22:22
I am still waiting for someone to explain why there would not be a Barbarossa?
Because the entire point of leaving France as a neutral great power is to 1) preserve major 'non-aligned' states whose interests might not align with those of Britain and, 2) limit the spread and intensity of the conflict to cool off tensions. Invading the Soviet Union goes against both objectives.

Now, I agree that Hitler wouldn't have done that. But the point of this thought exercise, as I understand it, is to recontextualize German strategic options after the Battle of France - including options the personalities historically involved wouldn't have considered.

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Re: What if Germany withdrew from France after its surrender?

Post by historygeek2021 » 22 Jul 2021 23:27

KDF33 wrote:
22 Jul 2021 23:25
MarkF617 wrote:
22 Jul 2021 22:22
I am still waiting for someone to explain why there would not be a Barbarossa?
Because the entire point of leaving France as a neutral great power is to 1) preserve major 'non-aligned' states whose interests might not align with those of Britain and, 2) limit the spread and intensity of the conflict to cool off tensions. Invading the Soviet Union goes against both objectives.

Now, I agree that Hitler wouldn't have done that. But the point of this thought exercise, as I understand it, is to recontextualize German strategic options after the Battle of France - including options the personalities historically involved wouldn't have considered.
But this exercise just leaves Germany back where they were in 1914 - at the mercy of France and Russia.

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Re: What if Germany withdrew from France after its surrender?

Post by KDF33 » 23 Jul 2021 00:15

historygeek2021 wrote:
22 Jul 2021 23:27
But this exercise just leaves Germany back where they were in 1914 - at the mercy of France and Russia.
I don't see that at all. On the contrary, I would argue that it de facto plays one against the other: the conservative Pétain regime would want a strong Germany to keep in check the USSR, and the USSR would fear that attacking Germany would be seen as destabilizing to everyone on the continent, including France.

Japan also saw the USSR as a major threat, and is unlikely to have taken a major expansion of Soviet power lightly.

Ultimately, a lot of countries are 'at the mercy' of other countries, and vice versa. What this strategy entails is trying to reconstitute some sort of Eurasian balance of power, and make Britain's obstinacy to wage war more-or-less irrelevant, indeed annoying to everyone concerned.

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Re: What if Germany withdrew from France after its surrender?

Post by historygeek2021 » 23 Jul 2021 01:40

KDF33 wrote:
23 Jul 2021 00:15
historygeek2021 wrote:
22 Jul 2021 23:27
But this exercise just leaves Germany back where they were in 1914 - at the mercy of France and Russia.
I don't see that at all. On the contrary, I would argue that it de facto plays one against the other: the conservative Pétain regime would want a strong Germany to keep in check the USSR, and the USSR would fear that attacking Germany would be seen as destabilizing to everyone on the continent, including France.

Japan also saw the USSR as a major threat, and is unlikely to have taken a major expansion of Soviet power lightly.

Ultimately, a lot of countries are 'at the mercy' of other countries, and vice versa. What this strategy entails is trying to reconstitute some sort of Eurasian balance of power, and make Britain's obstinacy to wage war more-or-less irrelevant, indeed annoying to everyone concerned.
Maybe if Otto von Bismarck had been chancellor this would have been plausible, but not with Adolf Hitler or any other German leader after the fall of France.

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Re: What if Germany withdrew from France after its surrender?

Post by MarkF617 » 23 Jul 2021 07:17

KDF33

The scenario I was debating about saw the Soviet-German pact holding and the Eurasian balance of power consisting of the Soviets occupying the whole middle east, India, China and Korea. Germany would be occupying Poland, Chekoslovakia, Norway, Denmark, Belgium, Holland, Luxembourg Greece and Yugoslavia. Presumably with British middle east forces smashed by the Soviets the Italians do a land grab of Britidh possessions and former Italian possessions in Africa.
This is not a nice balance this version of events just sets out to destroy Britain ignoring the realities of national aims and assumes no possibility of hostilities between Germany and the USSR.

Thanks

Mark.
You know you're British when you drive your German car to an Irish pub for a pint of Belgian beer before having an Indian meal. When you get home you sit on your Sweedish sofa and watch American programs on your Japanese TV.

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Re: What if Germany withdrew from France after its surrender?

Post by MarkF617 » 23 Jul 2021 07:25

KDF33

I could see your version of this scenario working if Germany pulls back to 1938 borders but remains in Danzig (ie Munich agreement plus Danzig corridor). I think the British would accept peace at this point. However the Getmany that would do this would probably not started the war in the first place.

Thanks

Mark.
You know you're British when you drive your German car to an Irish pub for a pint of Belgian beer before having an Indian meal. When you get home you sit on your Sweedish sofa and watch American programs on your Japanese TV.

glenn239
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Re: What if Germany withdrew from France after its surrender?

Post by glenn239 » 23 Jul 2021 14:43

MarkF617 wrote:
22 Jul 2021 22:19
War with Germany is always on the cards.
No, it wasn't inevitable. Hitler alone made that war happen. Had Hitler not attacked Stalin there is no credible evidence to suggest that Stalin was in any rush to attack Germany. Had Barbarossa not occurred there is no reason to suppose that the British would get their eastern front. In this AH Germany has undertaken a different outcome to the war with France than historical. It resembles more Napoleon's war with Austria in 1805. A Germany which treats France equally in defeat is a Germany that is pursuing a radically different grand strategy than the one Hitler pursued in the real war.
Stalin was well aware of the contents of Mein Kampf the Soviets were preparing to fight Germany.
If Stalin thought any such thing then he'd never have signed a non-aggression pact prior to the German invasion of Poland, would have never attacked Finland later that year, and would have invaded Germany in May 1940 with 200 divisions. He also would not have gone into shock for a month after the German invasion. No, Mark, to me the evidence suggests that Stalin thought that he would partner with Hitler and overthrow the Imperialist world order. It was Hitler, and Hitler alone, that prevented that from happening.
I never said it was inevitable the Soviets attack but it is more likely than them abandoning their traditional goals to go gallivanting off to India, China and Korea.
Soviet post-WW2 foreign policy basics contradict this assertion. Communist China and Korea were fundamental Soviet policy goals, as was overthrowing the colonial empires and supplanting them with communist regimes. An alliance with India was a Soviet foreign policy triumph that has lasted to this very day after the Treaty of Friendship of 1971. The idea that Stalin with an intact Soviet Union and the strongest army on Earth was going to pander to a weak and fading British presence in these locations seems highly unlikely to me.
As I said earlier there is realistically no scenario where Germany doesn't attack the Soviet Union as they only have a small window of opertunity where they thought they had a chance to win (they were wrong they had no chance).
The evidence suggests that Hitler was at least contemplating not attacking the Soviet Union in 1941, right up until the disasterous Molotov visit of November 1940. In terms of the theory that Hitler believed he had a small window to attack Stalin, I think you will find that this relates to Hitler's calculations of Anglo-American intentions in 1942, not Hitler's assessment of the purely German-Soviet balance of power. (That is to say, Hitler in 1941 believed he could beat the Soviets in 1941, 1951 or 1961 if it were just Germany vs. the SU and nothing else). If there are Hitler quotes that state otherwise, I'm not aware of them and would be interested to see you post them.
Britain's hope of winning lay with the USA and/or the USSR Getmany's only hope was to remove these threats thus since the USA was untouchable the USSR had to be removed. This was Germany's only hope, the hope that the British would throw in the towel as they could not defeat Britain.
All this is of course irrelevant ad thete is no chance what so ever of the Germans not occupying France. It took 2 World Wars to acheive this they were not going to let the French off.
The AH is that Germany has not occupied France. If you can contribute to that scenario, please feel free to do so. If your purpose is simply to pollute the thread with arguments why the thread should not exist, then please feel free to withdraw on the basis of the fact that such posts contribute nothing to the premise.

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Re: What if Germany withdrew from France after its surrender?

Post by glenn239 » 23 Jul 2021 14:50

historygeek2021 wrote:
22 Jul 2021 23:27
But this exercise just leaves Germany back where they were in 1914 - at the mercy of France and Russia.
France and Russia were military allies in 1914. France and the Soviet Union were not military allies in 1940, as witnessed by the fact that the USSR maintained its neutrality. So, your contention that the situation in 1940 would be the same as in 1914 is completely without merit for the simple reason that France and the Soviet Union were not, and would not become, allies.

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MarkF617
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Re: What if Germany withdrew from France after its surrender?

Post by MarkF617 » 23 Jul 2021 15:30

Glen said:

[No, Mark, to me the evidence suggests that Stalin thought that he would partner with Hitler and overthrow the Imperialist world order.]

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Sorry but that is the most ridiculous thing I have heard since Jesk was a member. You obviously look at the world differently than everyone else. Ican only deal with so much sillyness so I'm out.

Goodbye

Mark.
You know you're British when you drive your German car to an Irish pub for a pint of Belgian beer before having an Indian meal. When you get home you sit on your Sweedish sofa and watch American programs on your Japanese TV.

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Re: What if Germany withdrew from France after its surrender?

Post by glenn239 » 24 Jul 2021 16:30

MarkF617 wrote:
23 Jul 2021 15:30
Sorry but that is the most ridiculous thing I have heard since Jesk was a member. You obviously look at the world differently than everyone else. I can only deal with so much sillyness so I'm out.
You leaving is your first good suggestion made on this thread. Good for you.

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Re: What if Germany withdrew from France after its surrender?

Post by Erwinn » 27 Jul 2021 07:14

If France stays intact there is a big possibility of them becoming Communist.

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Re: What if Germany withdrew from France after its surrender?

Post by glenn239 » 28 Jul 2021 13:43

Erwinn wrote:
27 Jul 2021 07:14
If France stays intact there is a big possibility of them becoming Communist.
Vichy did not go communist so I would assume an intact France would not do so either.

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