Second Sino Japanese war if Japan doesn't surrender after the atomic bombs?

Discussions on alternate history, including events up to 20 years before today. Hosted by Terry Duncan.
Carl Schwamberger
Host - Allied sections
Posts: 8708
Joined: 02 Sep 2006 20:31
Location: USA

Re: Second Sino Japanese war if Japan doesn't surrender after the atomic bombs?

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 21 Jul 2021 00:30

1945- 1950/55 expel the Japanese from China proper, 1950s destroy the Communists & build economic/military strength, 1960s complete the recapture Manchuria & Korea. Remainder of the 20th Century, turn Japan into a Client State of China.

One of the things that was reinforced in my mind during the two years I lived in Japan was how Asian cultures tend to take a longer view than Western or US culture. The Harvard Business School model of taking long term planning only to ten years out made no sense to the Japanese or Koreans I worked with. They were more inclined to think of a life time as short term or immediate planning.

User avatar
Admiral Bloonbeard
Member
Posts: 74
Joined: 07 Feb 2021 00:31
Location: United States

Re: Second Sino Japanese war if Japan doesn't surrender after the atomic bombs?

Post by Admiral Bloonbeard » 22 Jul 2021 18:09

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
21 Jul 2021 00:30
1945- 1950/55 expel the Japanese from China proper, 1950s destroy the Communists & build economic/military strength, 1960s complete the recapture Manchuria & Korea. Remainder of the 20th Century, turn Japan into a Client State of China.

One of the things that was reinforced in my mind during the two years I lived in Japan was how Asian cultures tend to take a longer view than Western or US culture. The Harvard Business School model of taking long term planning only to ten years out made no sense to the Japanese or Koreans I worked with. They were more inclined to think of a life time as short term or immediate planning.
I meant in the context of Operation Downfall

OpanaPointer
Member
Posts: 4762
Joined: 16 May 2010 14:12
Location: United States of America

Re: Second Sino Japanese war if Japan doesn't surrender after the atomic bombs?

Post by OpanaPointer » 22 Jul 2021 18:22

Admiral Bloonbeard wrote:
20 Jul 2021 05:31
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
20 Jul 2021 01:42
Admiral Bloonbeard wrote:
18 Jul 2021 16:14
Do you think the Chinese can drive the Japanese off the mainland?
Taking the long view, of decades, yes & certainly.
What do you mean decades?
My take would be that the IJA would lose the support of the Home Islands while the Allies would be beefing up the Chinese. The Japanese were already pulling troops off the continent for the last battle at home. Once is was clear even to the hardliners that the China Incident was effectively over the evacuation would be hasten.
Come visit our sites:
hyperwarHyperwar
World War II Resources

Bellum se ipsum alet, mostly Doritos.

User avatar
Admiral Bloonbeard
Member
Posts: 74
Joined: 07 Feb 2021 00:31
Location: United States

Re: Second Sino Japanese war if Japan doesn't surrender after the atomic bombs?

Post by Admiral Bloonbeard » 22 Jul 2021 20:00

OpanaPointer wrote:
22 Jul 2021 18:22
Admiral Bloonbeard wrote:
20 Jul 2021 05:31
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
20 Jul 2021 01:42
Admiral Bloonbeard wrote:
18 Jul 2021 16:14
Do you think the Chinese can drive the Japanese off the mainland?
Taking the long view, of decades, yes & certainly.
What do you mean decades?
My take would be that the IJA would lose the support of the Home Islands while the Allies would be beefing up the Chinese. The Japanese were already pulling troops off the continent for the last battle at home. Once is was clear even to the hardliners that the China Incident was effectively over the evacuation would be hasten.
I was thinking of the Chinese defeating the Japanese militarily by pushing them off them mainland

OpanaPointer
Member
Posts: 4762
Joined: 16 May 2010 14:12
Location: United States of America

Re: Second Sino Japanese war if Japan doesn't surrender after the atomic bombs?

Post by OpanaPointer » 22 Jul 2021 21:44

Admiral Bloonbeard wrote:
22 Jul 2021 20:00
OpanaPointer wrote:
22 Jul 2021 18:22
Admiral Bloonbeard wrote:
20 Jul 2021 05:31
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
20 Jul 2021 01:42
Admiral Bloonbeard wrote:
18 Jul 2021 16:14
Do you think the Chinese can drive the Japanese off the mainland?
Taking the long view, of decades, yes & certainly.
What do you mean decades?
My take would be that the IJA would lose the support of the Home Islands while the Allies would be beefing up the Chinese. The Japanese were already pulling troops off the continent for the last battle at home. Once is was clear even to the hardliners that the China Incident was effectively over the evacuation would be hasten.
I was thinking of the Chinese defeating the Japanese militarily by pushing them off them mainland
Possible, that's the "beefing up" I mentioned above. Six years of war hadn't shown the Chinese army in a very good light.
Come visit our sites:
hyperwarHyperwar
World War II Resources

Bellum se ipsum alet, mostly Doritos.

User avatar
T. A. Gardner
Member
Posts: 2503
Joined: 02 Feb 2006 00:23
Location: Arizona

Re: Second Sino Japanese war if Japan doesn't surrender after the atomic bombs?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 14 Sep 2021 02:17

If Japan didn't surrender, then the Soviets would overrun much of northern China and the Korean peninsula but other than take a few outlying islands in the Kurile's, they aren't going to be able to do much.
Even Hokkaido would be an incredibly difficult slog for them. The bulk of their air forces can barely reach that island and their amphibious assault capacity, even with US help, is meager at best. Their Pacific Fleet is so weak it's barely a match for the remnants of the IJN in 1945 and likely would take a drubbing in any naval action that occurred between the two.

So, once they overrun Japanese territory in China and Korea, they're pretty much finished as far as a Sino-Japanese war goes.

OpanaPointer
Member
Posts: 4762
Joined: 16 May 2010 14:12
Location: United States of America

Re: Second Sino Japanese war if Japan doesn't surrender after the atomic bombs?

Post by OpanaPointer » 14 Sep 2021 13:03

The local Soviet commander was ready to throw a few divisions at Hokkaido, Stalin canceled that the day before it was to be launched.
Come visit our sites:
hyperwarHyperwar
World War II Resources

Bellum se ipsum alet, mostly Doritos.

User avatar
T. A. Gardner
Member
Posts: 2503
Joined: 02 Feb 2006 00:23
Location: Arizona

Re: Second Sino Japanese war if Japan doesn't surrender after the atomic bombs?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 14 Sep 2021 18:52

OpanaPointer wrote:
14 Sep 2021 13:03
The local Soviet commander was ready to throw a few divisions at Hokkaido, Stalin canceled that the day before it was to be launched.
The most the Soviets could have sent in a single wave given the landing craft the US had given them was about two regiments of infantry with support. A second wave using the same landing craft would have been about 72 hours at a minimum later. This was the Soviet's version of Seelöwe...

OpanaPointer
Member
Posts: 4762
Joined: 16 May 2010 14:12
Location: United States of America

Re: Second Sino Japanese war if Japan doesn't surrender after the atomic bombs?

Post by OpanaPointer » 14 Sep 2021 21:54

T. A. Gardner wrote:
14 Sep 2021 18:52
OpanaPointer wrote:
14 Sep 2021 13:03
The local Soviet commander was ready to throw a few divisions at Hokkaido, Stalin canceled that the day before it was to be launched.
The most the Soviets could have sent in a single wave given the landing craft the US had given them was about two regiments of infantry with support. A second wave using the same landing craft would have been about 72 hours at a minimum later. This was the Soviet's version of Seelöwe...
The plan proposed called for a three division landing. Operation Hula wasn't the only source of boats for this, just the most militarized of the bottoms available. Manpower was the limiter.
Come visit our sites:
hyperwarHyperwar
World War II Resources

Bellum se ipsum alet, mostly Doritos.

User avatar
T. A. Gardner
Member
Posts: 2503
Joined: 02 Feb 2006 00:23
Location: Arizona

Re: Second Sino Japanese war if Japan doesn't surrender after the atomic bombs?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 15 Sep 2021 02:27

OpanaPointer wrote:
14 Sep 2021 21:54
T. A. Gardner wrote:
14 Sep 2021 18:52
OpanaPointer wrote:
14 Sep 2021 13:03
The local Soviet commander was ready to throw a few divisions at Hokkaido, Stalin canceled that the day before it was to be launched.
The most the Soviets could have sent in a single wave given the landing craft the US had given them was about two regiments of infantry with support. A second wave using the same landing craft would have been about 72 hours at a minimum later. This was the Soviet's version of Seelöwe...
The plan proposed called for a three division landing. Operation Hula wasn't the only source of boats for this, just the most militarized of the bottoms available. Manpower was the limiter.
It would have ended up a serious debacle like Shumshu Island did. While the Russians won there, their first wave ashore got decimated and they lost a number of landing craft. Trying to invade Hokkaido would have been the Soviet's Seelöwe.

OpanaPointer
Member
Posts: 4762
Joined: 16 May 2010 14:12
Location: United States of America

Re: Second Sino Japanese war if Japan doesn't surrender after the atomic bombs?

Post by OpanaPointer » 15 Sep 2021 13:19

Don't shoot the messenger. ;-)
Come visit our sites:
hyperwarHyperwar
World War II Resources

Bellum se ipsum alet, mostly Doritos.

Return to “What if”