Germany invades France in 1939

[Carl Schwamberger]

ok, so a winter stalemate. Holland survives and is now fully under arms and receives equipment from the allies and some troops. The south is occupied and so is Belgium.... ... will that save the Dutch? It will be tight...

I'd think it depends on where the Germans place their priorities. Striking a decisive blow against the French may seem like the more important move. If the Dutch appear really weak there might be a intern offensive to 'clean up' this Allied position, but the French seem more important.

Both the Germans and the French are in trouble in the air. The French did not get their aircraft production reorganized and rolling until spring. neither did the deliveries from the US start until early spring. In the autumn the German AF was not recovered from the loss of 500+ aircraft in the Polish campaign. OTL they lost approx 1000 in the 1940 campaign. Losing even half that in the autumn of 1939 leaves the Luftwaffe thin in the air. & they don't have a allied air force as the French had with Britain. Even a couple hundred new Hurricanes make a difference at moments like this.

Then theres questions of tank production between the two, AT gun production, and the big one - artillery ammunition.

[nuyt]

I'd say after driving the Anglo-French forces south, the Germans turn on Holland to wipe out resistance and prevent the British getting a foothold in their back. So the Dutch survive a few weeks only to face a much larger and focused assault mid winter 39/40.

[Carl Schwamberger]

Possibly. What priorities the Germans have depends on the condition of their army as the stalemate occurs. Several problems may or may not emerge that would preclude attention to the Netherlands.

[T. A. Gardner]

Possibly. What priorities the Germans have depends on the condition of their army as the stalemate occurs. Several problems may or may not emerge that would preclude attention to the Netherlands.

Germany only had to invade the Netherlands to get around the fortified zone of Liege. That's why taking out Eben Emael was so important. With that fortress gone, and the bridges over the Albert Canal intact, the Germans could flood through the Netherlands into Belgium bypassing the Liege defenses entirely.
Otherwise, as in WW 1, there was no overt reason to take the Netherlands. Hitler might have wanted to anyway, but it wouldn't be the military planning necessity the Liege fortresses forced on the Germans.

[Carl Schwamberger]

Possibly. What priorities the Germans have depends on the condition of their army as the stalemate occurs. Several problems may or may not emerge that would preclude attention to the Netherlands.

Germany only had to invade the Netherlands to get around the fortified zone of Liege. That's why taking out Eben Emael was so important. With that fortress gone, and the bridges over the Albert Canal intact, the Germans could flood through the Netherlands into Belgium bypassing the Liege defenses entirely.
Otherwise, as in WW 1, there was no overt reason to take the Netherlands. Hitler might have wanted to anyway, but it wouldn't be the military planning necessity the Liege fortresses forced on the Germans.

As per my earlier post: The German air force leaders thought they would use the Netherlands airfields to attack England. I believe Horne refers to this in 'To Lose a Battle'. May in his book 'Strange Victory' describes the Luftwaffe blackballing a proposal at a January 1940 conference, to exclude the Netherlands from attack entirely. It appears the GAF leaders, like a lot of German generals had no confidence the ground attack would carry through to the Channel coast.