What happens to Libya if Benny the Moose stays neutral?

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Takao
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Re: What happens to Libya if Benny the Moose stays neutral?

Post by Takao » 27 Jul 2022 11:03

Princess Perfume wrote:
26 Jul 2022 02:52
Fantasy. Complete and total fantasy.
Reality, complete and total reality.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decolon ... _of_Africa
Princess Perfume wrote:
26 Jul 2022 02:52
Arabs are not going to kick arse. Nor are Africans, Albanians etc.
See above,
Princess Perfume wrote:
26 Jul 2022 02:52
The Dodecanese was not "really" Greek
If the Dodecanese were not "really" Greek, then they were "certainly not" Italian. Even after their "Italianization", they were "certainly not" Italian.

Princess Perfume wrote:
26 Jul 2022 02:52
and was not "booty" - Italy acquired it through a legitimate treaty.
You are correct, they were not "booty." They were, however, a Turkish "payment" to Italy "for services rendered."

Princess Perfume wrote:
26 Jul 2022 02:52
It's actually very hard to fight an enemy that is willng to torture and kill in order to stop you. The recent protestors in Burma knew this which is why they were carrying placards begging for the USA to intervene - peace and non-violence achieves precisely nothing without the backup threat of sending in the Marines.
Given, that near about all of Africa threw off the shackles of colonialism without the "help" or "threat" of Uncle Sam's Misguided Children...I am going to have to say this statement is erroneous.

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Re: What happens to Libya if Benny the Moose stays neutral?

Post by Princess Perfume » 27 Jul 2022 15:21

"Given, that near about all of Africa threw off the shackles of colonialism without the "help" or "threat" of Uncle Sam's Misguided Children...I am going to have to say this statement is erroneous."

It's *almost* as if they had an um "eastern bloc" *supplying* them with um *aid* and *weapons* Would have been a lot more difficult for them to win without that.

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Re: What happens to Libya if Benny the Moose stays neutral?

Post by Takao » 27 Jul 2022 16:16

Princess Perfume wrote:
27 Jul 2022 15:21

It's *almost* as if they had an um "eastern bloc" *supplying* them with um *aid* and *weapons* Would have been a lot more difficult for them to win without that.
It's *almost* as if you um *knew* what you were talking about.

You see, that is the thing about revolutions, nations tend to take sides. The United States would not have gained it's independence had not France provided *aid* and *weapons*. Given Benny's *pariah* status, his side won't be *getting* any support. The Arabs, on the other hand, will be getting a lot of *aid* and *weapons* from "east" and "west." Especially once oil is discovered in Libya.

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Re: What happens to Libya if Benny the Moose stays neutral?

Post by Princess Perfume » 27 Jul 2022 17:43

the West will help Nasser and his Libyan proxies ?

You think the Americans in the 50s and 60s will want the Arabs controlling Libyan oil when it can be an anti-communist western nation like Italy, instead?

Also, remember, as shown in the last eleven years since 2011, Libya is not a real country and as soon as the dictator was gone, it collapsed.

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Re: What happens to Libya if Benny the Moose stays neutral?

Post by Takao » 27 Jul 2022 18:10

Princess Perfume wrote:
27 Jul 2022 17:43
the West will help Nasser and his Libyan proxies ?
The same United States that protected Nasser in 1956?
Fairly certain of it.

Princess Perfume wrote:
27 Jul 2022 17:43
You think the Americans in the 50s and 60s will want the Arabs controlling Libyan oil when it can be an anti-communist western nation like Italy, instead?
Friendly Arabs, like the Saudis, as opposed to fascist Italians?
Fairly certain of it.
Princess Perfume wrote:
27 Jul 2022 17:43
Also, remember, as shown in the last eleven years since 2011, Libya is not a real country and as soon as the dictator was gone, it collapsed.
Yes, and...Once Benny was gone Italy collapsed. Once Hitler was gone Germany collapsed. Once Tojo was gone Japan collapsed.

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Re: What happens to Libya if Benny the Moose stays neutral?

Post by Princess Perfume » 27 Jul 2022 18:29

Italy, Germany and Japan were nation-states created as such. Libya is not. The Arab race did and does not have seperate national identities based on imaginary lines drawn on a map by European colonisers.

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Re: What happens to Libya if Benny the Moose stays neutral?

Post by Takao » 27 Jul 2022 20:31

Princess Perfume wrote:
27 Jul 2022 18:29
Italy, Germany and Japan were nation-states created as such.
In the OTL, no. None of the 3 existed until the late-1800's.
Princess Perfume wrote:
27 Jul 2022 18:29
Libya is not. The Arab race did and does not have seperate national identities based on imaginary lines drawn on a map by European colonisers.
The Arab Race???

Your joking, right?

You can't be that ignorant.

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Re: What happens to Libya if Benny the Moose stays neutral?

Post by Lee-Sensei » 04 Aug 2022 06:37

nuyt wrote:
21 Jul 2022 10:14
OK, let's suppose fascist Italy emerges from WW2 unscathed, with a huge military, navy and air force - that btw has not been tested. What are its challenges?

Internally rebellion is smouldering. Those communist partisans in OTL did not come out of nowhere and the potential is still there in this scenario. There was opposition. Benny has to watch his back and without a war to unite the people he has only his Blackshirts to control his cities.

Internationally Fascist Italy has more problems than Franco Spain. It is illegally occupying Ethiopia and the new UN will demand Italy's withdrawal. Besides Libya, fascist Italy also holds Eritrea and Somalia. Italy faces insurrection not just at home, but also in Libya, Eritrea , Somalia and, if not abandoned, Ethiopia. There is more to consider. What will happen to the territories the Italians hold in Greece (Dodecanese) and Yugoslavia (Dalmatia) since the 20s? They invaded Albania early 1939 and, guess what, the locals want their country back. Fascist Italy will face a massive onslaught after WW2!

Independent Egypt will no doubt be a refuge for nationalist Libyans and it will house the HQ of the Peoples Front for the Liberation of Libya. Guerilla war rages all through southern Libya and occasionally that mighty fine pizza place in Tripoli gets bombed and olive orchards burn in Cyrenaeca. And the Soviets will support the PFLL too. And later the Chinese. And the left in the West, influencing the SPD in Germany, Labour in the UK and the PS in France to squeeze Benito.

Even when Benny does all the right things: abandoning Ethiopia and Albania, trading the Greek islands for eternal friendship with Greece, same with Zadar, Rijeka, etc with Belgrad, it will still cling in vain to the remaining three African possessions .

The fate of Italian Libya, no matter how many settlers will be sent or how many conscripts be deployed (mostly to carry their weapon in disgust like the Portuguese did), will be similar to that of French Algeria (with its million strong French/Spanish minority), Portuguese Africa (with at least half a million PTs by the 1970s) or any other African colony.

An Italian Libya will be unsustainable. And when it all collapses, the Italians will run like hell, just like the pied noirs and the Portuguese...
This is all very unrealistic. Barring Ethiopia, most of the Italian overseas territories are sparsely populated. They wouldn’t have to give them back and the UN isn’t going to try to force them to leave. I can see a pull out of Ethiopia and maybe Somalia, but the rest would probably stay Italian.

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Re: What happens to Libya if Benny the Moose stays neutral?

Post by Lee-Sensei » 04 Aug 2022 06:42

Takao wrote:
27 Jul 2022 11:03
Princess Perfume wrote:
26 Jul 2022 02:52
Fantasy. Complete and total fantasy.
Reality, complete and total reality.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decolon ... _of_Africa
Princess Perfume wrote:
26 Jul 2022 02:52
Arabs are not going to kick arse. Nor are Africans, Albanians etc.
See above,
Princess Perfume wrote:
26 Jul 2022 02:52
The Dodecanese was not "really" Greek
If the Dodecanese were not "really" Greek, then they were "certainly not" Italian. Even after their "Italianization", they were "certainly not" Italian.

Princess Perfume wrote:
26 Jul 2022 02:52
and was not "booty" - Italy acquired it through a legitimate treaty.
You are correct, they were not "booty." They were, however, a Turkish "payment" to Italy "for services rendered."

Princess Perfume wrote:
26 Jul 2022 02:52
It's actually very hard to fight an enemy that is willng to torture and kill in order to stop you. The recent protestors in Burma knew this which is why they were carrying placards begging for the USA to intervene - peace and non-violence achieves precisely nothing without the backup threat of sending in the Marines.
Given, that near about all of Africa threw off the shackles of colonialism without the "help" or "threat" of Uncle Sam's Misguided Children...I am going to have to say this statement is erroneous.
Britain and France were democracies with far larger Empires to maintain. Both in terms of land area and population. Aside from Ethiopia, the Italian Empire is sparsely populated and relatively small. They’re also a totalitarian dictatorship. It’s not the same. You can point to Portugal, but the Portuguese had a population of about 7 million. Italy had a population of 45 million at the start of WW2. Probably over 48 million going by their growth rate. That’s larger than France or Brazil. Eritrea, Somalia, Albania and Libya all had a population of about 1 million each. Ethiopia had a population of about 12 million. I can see them pulling out of Ethiopia. The rest is much more questionable.

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Re: What happens to Libya if Benny the Moose stays neutral?

Post by nuyt » 04 Aug 2022 20:13

Lee-Sensei wrote:
04 Aug 2022 06:37
This is all very unrealistic. Barring Ethiopia, most of the Italian overseas territories are sparsely populated. They wouldn’t have to give them back and the UN isn’t going to try to force them to leave. I can see a pull out of Ethiopia and maybe Somalia, but the rest would probably stay Italian.
Absolutely not.

Since you took the trouble of registering here especially to participate in this discussion, allow me to retort.

Sparsely populated? Yeah, in 1939: 100.000 Italians vs 800.000 Libyans. Actually, the whole world was sparsely populated then!

As a rule of thumb, populations in "third world countries" after WW2 would double every generation or so and would outgrow any settler community. So if (and a big if) Fascist Italy survives and if (an even bigger if) there would have been 500.000 Italians by 1960 in Libya, there would also be around 1,5 million Libyans (and there were that many OTL). By 1975 there were 2,5 million. No chance for an Italian majority. Same for the other colonies. Presently Libya has 7 million and yeah, they all live on the coast and the rest is still sparsely populated (and inhabitable).

The more guerilla activities, the less settlers arrive. And Libya would have been hemmed in between two hostile nationalistic countries, Algeria and Egypt. The former had just kicked out one million French colons. The more international pressure, the less foreign investments, the less economic development, the less ... settlers and expats.

Spanish and Portuguese authoritarian regimes lost their colonies eventually as well. Spain lost Ifni, the Western Sahara, Bata, etc. All they kept are Ceuta and Melilla, conveniently close to the motherland (you can even see Ceuta from Spain). Portugal lost Goa in a short battle to India and then in 1974/75, in one blow, everything else (because their govt collapsed).

If Fascist Italy (why do you want it to survive anyway?) collapses eventually, maybe like Spain and Portugal, the last of its colonies will collapse too. But way before that to happen, the US will interfere and assist the independence of strategic countries (like oily ones). And any European democratic country would want to get rid of most of their colonies by the 70s, except for some islands and small territories, like French Guyana. But Libya is not French Guyana.

Sweet dreams or enlighten yourself.

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Re: What happens to Libya if Benny the Moose stays neutral?

Post by Lee-Sensei » 04 Aug 2022 21:16

nuyt wrote:
04 Aug 2022 20:13
Lee-Sensei wrote:
04 Aug 2022 06:37
This is all very unrealistic. Barring Ethiopia, most of the Italian overseas territories are sparsely populated. They wouldn’t have to give them back and the UN isn’t going to try to force them to leave. I can see a pull out of Ethiopia and maybe Somalia, but the rest would probably stay Italian.
Absolutely not.

Since you took the trouble of registering here especially to participate in this discussion, allow me to retort.

Sparsely populated? Yeah, in 1939: 100.000 Italians vs 800.000 Libyans. Actually, the whole world was sparsely populated then!

As a rule of thumb, populations in "third world countries" after WW2 would double every generation or so and would outgrow any settler community. So if (and a big if) Fascist Italy survives and if (an even bigger if) there would have been 500.000 Italians by 1960 in Libya, there would also be around 1,5 million Libyans (and there were that many OTL). By 1975 there were 2,5 million. No chance for an Italian majority. Same for the other colonies. Presently Libya has 7 million and yeah, they all live on the coast and the rest is still sparsely populated (and inhabitable).
Press x to doubt. 7 million is relatively tiny and this assumes that demographic changes would follow similar patterns to the ones OTL. If the Libyans rebel, a lot of them are going to be killed off in the pacification process. That’s not a good thing obviously, but it’s going to retard population growth for the Libyans. Meanwhile, population growth in Italy is likely to be higher due to pronatalist policies, restrictions against contraceptions and abortions and a societal push for religiosity and traditional gender roles. We don’t even need to push it to an extreme. If we take interwar Italy’s population growth rate and figure out how large their population would be in 2022, we’re looking at a low estimate of about 97 million Italians.
The more guerilla activities, the less settlers arrive. And Libya would have been hemmed in between two hostile nationalistic countries, Algeria and Egypt. The former had just kicked out one million French colons. The more international pressure, the less foreign investments, the less economic development, the less ... settlers and expats.
France was a liberal democracy and Algeria had a population of 10 million vs 40 million French. About 1 million of those being spied Noirs. Libya doesn’t have that population today.
Spanish and Portuguese authoritarian regimes lost their colonies eventually as well. Spain lost Ifni, the Western Sahara, Bata, etc. All they kept are Ceuta and Melilla, conveniently close to the motherland (you can even see Ceuta from Spain). Portugal lost Goa in a short battle to India and then in 1974/75, in one blow, everything else (because their govt collapsed).
Close to the motherland? You mean like Libya, Albania and the Dodecanese Islands? Spain and Portugal were politically isolated. In a scenario where Mussolini stays neutral, fascism would still be seen as a viable political movement and you’d see a lot more fascistic regimes. Italy would also almost certainly have developed nuclear weapons some time in the early 1960’s at the latest.
If Fascist Italy (why do you want it to survive anyway?) collapses eventually, maybe like Spain and Portugal, the last of its colonies will collapse too. But way before that to happen, the US will interfere and assist the independence of strategic countries (like oily ones). And any European democratic country would want to get rid of most of their colonies by the 70s, except for some islands and small territories, like French Guyana. But Libya is not French Guyana.
I never said I wanted it to survive. I said that expecting them to give up all of their Empire when it’s sparsely populated is unrealistic. The US isn’t going to interfere if Mussolini stayed neutral. If you were arguing that Italy would undergo a bit of liberalization and extend the franchise to ethnic and religious minorities to reduce support for insurgency movements, I’d agree with you. Arguing that Italy would give up oil rich Libya is pure fantasy. Israel has been fighting insurgents for how long now?have they retreated back to the 1967 borders?

One other thing that needs to be considered is that in comparing Italy to Europe in OTL, these countries were broken by WW2 financially. An Italy that stays neutral in the war would likely see an economic boom as great if not greater than Japan in WW2. Its perfectly situated to do business with both the Allies and Germany. By the end of the war, they’d likely be a net creditor. Like Japan was in 1918. They won’t be heavily in debt to the United States.

Today, Russia has a population that’s about 81% ethnic Russian. Have they given up their territory?
Sweet dreams or enlighten yourself.
Enlighten yourself.

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Re: What happens to Libya if Benny the Moose stays neutral?

Post by nuyt » 04 Aug 2022 21:46

Lee-Sensei wrote:
04 Aug 2022 21:16
If the Libyans rebel, a lot of them are going to be killed off in the pacification process. That’s not a good thing obviously, but it’s going to retard population growth for the Libyans. Meanwhile, population growth in Italy is likely to be higher due to pronatalist policies, restrictions against contraceptions and abortions and a societal push for religiosity and traditional gender roles. We don’t even need to push it to an extreme. If we take interwar Italy’s population growth rate and figure out how large their population would be in 2022, we’re looking at a low estimate of about 97 million Italians.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: What happens to Libya if Benny the Moose stays neutral?

Post by nuyt » 04 Aug 2022 21:55

Lee-Sensei wrote:
04 Aug 2022 21:16
Arguing that Italy would give up oil rich Libya is pure fantasy. Israel has been fighting insurgents for how long now?have they retreated back to the 1967 borders?
Can't help thinking that you are the very same Princess Perfume. In both your postings you are eagerly projecting Israel's history on a surviving imperial and fascist Italy. Disgusting.

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Re: What happens to Libya if Benny the Moose stays neutral?

Post by Lee-Sensei » 05 Aug 2022 00:46

nuyt wrote:
04 Aug 2022 21:46
Lee-Sensei wrote:
04 Aug 2022 21:16
If the Libyans rebel, a lot of them are going to be killed off in the pacification process. That’s not a good thing obviously, but it’s going to retard population growth for the Libyans. Meanwhile, population growth in Italy is likely to be higher due to pronatalist policies, restrictions against contraceptions and abortions and a societal push for religiosity and traditional gender roles. We don’t even need to push it to an extreme. If we take interwar Italy’s population growth rate and figure out how large their population would be in 2022, we’re looking at a low estimate of about 97 million Italians.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
That's not an argument.

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Re: What happens to Libya if Benny the Moose stays neutral?

Post by Lee-Sensei » 05 Aug 2022 00:47

nuyt wrote:
04 Aug 2022 21:55
Lee-Sensei wrote:
04 Aug 2022 21:16
Arguing that Italy would give up oil rich Libya is pure fantasy. Israel has been fighting insurgents for how long now?have they retreated back to the 1967 borders?
Can't help thinking that you are the very same Princess Perfume. In both your postings you are eagerly projecting Israel's history on a surviving imperial and fascist Italy. Disgusting.
Do Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza have equal rights? Can they vote? Yes or no?

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