TMP Overall; German Options

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Huszar666
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Re: TMP Overall; German Options

Post by Huszar666 » 08 Jun 2022 21:17

Of course, if you're unwilling to engage him unless he is unable to respond, or if you
don't think your points can withstand his scrutiny, then carry on the conversation without
being challenged. ( Similar to two Ice Cream Cones licking each other....... )
In the short time I was active in what if and he didn't got himself banned, there was a... certain... not-really-willingness on his part to engage with... opposing... views.
I did feel, there was a... certain... evasion... when... issues with his ideas were presented.
That is certainly NO echo bubble.

I'm probably an ignorant of the grandeur when I ask, if Hitler DID view the SU as so much a thread, why did he no wait another year, when he could have even more stuff without resorting to forced conscription, upturning the whole German economy from one day to another without any run-up and such.
Oh, I think, I did ask that question and did point out the impossibility of producing X stuff one day and producing x+50% the next.
But, never mind.

Richard Anderson
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Re: TMP Overall; German Options

Post by Richard Anderson » 08 Jun 2022 22:30

Huszar666 wrote:
08 Jun 2022 19:09
Fascinating. I've seen self-licking ice cream cones before, but never a self-made echo chamber. :roll:
Do you listen to the news on TV? :D
That is a corporate echo chamber. :lol: I'm talking about an individual going through the time and trouble to create an entire website and "discussion board" for the sole purpose of facilitating circular reasoning, confirmation bias, and hindsight. :roll:
Actually, if you repeat stuff enough times on as many media as possible, and enough folks listen to it, it will become truth.
Sorry, but no, it does not. Falsehoods and other "alternative facts" do not magically transform into truth or facts by repetition, they just become repeated falsehoods and "alternative facts". The repetition may lead some to believe or have faith in them, but belief and faith do not make something true either.
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Michael Kenny
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Re: TMP Overall; German Options

Post by Michael Kenny » 09 Jun 2022 09:52

Richard Anderson wrote:
08 Jun 2022 22:30


Sorry, but no, it does not. Falsehoods and other "alternative facts" do not magically transform into truth or facts by repetition, they just become repeated falsehoods and "alternative facts". The repetition may lead some to believe or have faith in them, but belief and faith do not make something true either.
That used to work 'in the old days' but the current situation even what constitutes a fact has been redefined. If enough people believe it then for that group it is fact. Establish an uncritical and unquestioning group of followers who dote your every word (see recent posts inserting the Dear Leader's name into every paragraph) and you have your alternate reality. You will never convince a cult member that they are actually in a cult.

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Re: TMP Overall; German Options

Post by Richard Anderson » 09 Jun 2022 16:11

Michael Kenny wrote:
09 Jun 2022 09:52
Richard Anderson wrote:
08 Jun 2022 22:30


Sorry, but no, it does not. Falsehoods and other "alternative facts" do not magically transform into truth or facts by repetition, they just become repeated falsehoods and "alternative facts". The repetition may lead some to believe or have faith in them, but belief and faith do not make something true either.
That used to work 'in the old days' but the current situation even what constitutes a fact has been redefined. If enough people believe it then for that group it is fact. Establish an uncritical and unquestioning group of followers who dote your every word (see recent posts inserting the Dear Leader's name into every paragraph) and you have your alternate reality. You will never convince a cult member that they are actually in a cult.
It still continues to work for those who haven't drunk the Kool Aid. For one I doubt that friend Huszar666 has; there is a healthy amount of skepticism and better yet evidence of interest in fact finding rather than fact creating.
Richard C. Anderson Jr.

American Thunder: U.S. Army Tank Design, Development, and Doctrine in World War II
Cracking Hitler's Atlantic Wall
Hitler's Last Gamble
Artillery Hell

Huszar666
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Re: TMP Overall; German Options

Post by Huszar666 » 09 Jun 2022 17:10

It still continues to work for those who haven't drunk the Kool Aid. For one I doubt that friend Huszar666 has; there is a healthy amount of skepticism and better yet evidence of interest in fact finding rather than fact creating.
why, thank you!

Actually, I'm quite certain, there is no Kool Aid to buy in Hungary, though :D

As for What Ifs, I'm the type would works with what there was OTL. I'm really, really, really adverse of getting tech-no-logical stuff ahead of time, and getting more stuff than the folks back than had at their disposal. It's more fun that way, and you learn much more.
Mostly stuff doesn't just grow on trees, you would need workers, raw materials, capacity and time to build it. Just deciding, I need 50.000 more trucks and 1000 more tanks is not enough. I doubt any one of us are or were running the economy of a country in wartime, or are high-level military, so our estimates will be off.
Probably by one or two orders of magnitude.
Being pessimistic would be much nearer the reality, and probably even so optimistic. If you arrive at number according to your best estimate, halving it would be nearer to real possibilities. For operational ideas, look at the lowest number the troops OTL managed and use that number, and still add 10-20% to the number of days.
Since, well, fog of war, uncalculable circumstances, etc, etc, etc.
Oh, and look at the infrastructure.

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Re: TMP Overall; German Options

Post by The Ibis » 17 Jun 2022 19:11

Huszar666 wrote:
09 Jun 2022 17:10
Actually, I'm quite certain, there is no Kool Aid to buy in Hungary, though :D
How sad for the kids (and the dentists).

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C.Z.A.R.
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Re: TMP Overall; German Options

Post by C.Z.A.R. » 19 Jun 2022 22:45

He might be banned but that doesn't mean the discussion needs to end.

What are Germany's sanity options?

historygeek2021
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Re: TMP Overall; German Options

Post by historygeek2021 » 19 Jun 2022 23:23

C.Z.A.R. wrote:
19 Jun 2022 22:45

What are Germany's sanity options?
Surrender

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Takao
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Re: TMP Overall; German Options

Post by Takao » 20 Jun 2022 00:32

Not go to war.

Huszar666
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Re: TMP Overall; German Options

Post by Huszar666 » 21 Jun 2022 17:53

Win the war.

Huszar666
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Re: TMP Overall; German Options

Post by Huszar666 » 22 Jun 2022 19:48

Morning,

But ok, let's discuss the whole idea and "plan". I mean with that only the May 1940 POD, NOT the "sometimes 1938" one, that is just...

SO, the whole problem is that TMP obviously wanted 10 more fast divisions in June 1941, he calculated a more-or-less arbitrary number to fill the TOE, calculated a more-or-less arbitrary number what Germany could build "extra" and arrived at May 1940 at the latest, when Hitler had to decide to build those extra 10 fast divisions.
But because Hitler had a divine revelation in May 1940, orders to shift everything on the dime, voila, he has further 10 fast divisions in June 1941.

HOWEVER.

The why was never explained.
1, why he decides in May 1940 (the PzDs probably haven't even reached the sea yet!), that he would need to invade the SU in the short term?
2, why would he assume, that a one-year campaign wasn't going to cut it, and he needs at least a two-year campaign?
3, why he would feel it important to attack in 1941 instead of waiting another year and do it in late-May or Early-June 1942?
4, why would he willingly go into a two-front war for at least two years, and leave the UK unconquered in the backyard?
5, why would he suddenly assume, that further 10 fast divisions would be needed instead of the current 17+3 Bdes and the June 41 "is" of 33+3 Bdes (exl the div in North Africa)?


Let's see...
1, In May 1940 the SU was actually a reliable ally, and it was hoped to bring it into the war - against the French and the UK. Even if we subscribe to the idea, that Hitler wanted to exterminate the slavs, better today than tomorrow, contemplating a war against the SU for May-June 1941 and not long-term (after the situation in the West is clear, and GErmany had time to digest the conquests, say, 1943 or so) in MAY 1940 would idiotic. The complete opposite of what TMP wanted to sell.
The first indication, that the SU wasn't planning to play along was in November 1940...

2, What the SU did pre Barbarossa wasn't really awe-inspiring. It was the exact opposite. Neither in Poland, nor in Finland did the RKKA really distuingish itself, and even in the OTL-Barbarossa basically everyone - Axis, Allies, Neutrals were expecting a quick (or quickish) German victory. Till early December 1941. We could theoretically rationalize this point with "erring on the side of caution", but that would probably be the only one time Germany did that. This ties into:

3, if Germany/Hitler views the SU as a danger that would warrant an at least two-years campaign, why has to be it done 1941, and not 1942? With another year of preparation, Germany could have had much, much more than those "further 10 fast division", without the need to reorganise the whole wartime economy within a few days. In that one extra year, the situation in the West an in Africa could be cleared, probably even reaching Persia for another vector into the SU, and so forth. The only one reason for a quick, one-year campaign in 1941 was to beprive the UK of the only potential continental ally. Even that reasoning bled from a thousand wounds. If Germany planned for a two-year campaign,even the last shred of reason went out the window. And wouldn't have been contemplated without defeating the UK first.

4, OTL Barbarossa was planned as a quick grab in one year to deprive the UK of the last continental ally, before the US could lend its weight. A landing in 1940 was possible, one in 1941 may even had some reasonable chance, but even one in 1942 was only wishful thinking. 1943 it was not even a bad joke. A quick one-year-grab could be rationalized as a means to force the UK to the table for a peace in 1942 or so, but a prolonged two-years one could not. If the SU was regarded as a serious enough threat that warranted a two-years campaign, it would have been imperative to defeat the UK first. Be it in September 1940 or in early 1941.

5, We know it now, that extra troops (and supply organisations!) would have been nice to have, but hindsight is 20/20 as the saying goes.

From a strictly operational point of view, it was not possible to amass 20 German (+a lot of Rumanian) divisions somewhere north of Iasi because of bad road and railway connections in time to attack on the 22nd June. OTL, with around a third of German divisions it took ten further days.
The plan hinges on the ability to attack with two German armies on the 22nd and destroy more soviet troops and earlier than OTL. Since OTL it was not possible to mount a credible attack till the 2nd July, it would be equally impossible to mount one ten days earlier with three times the troops.

(as an aside, I haven't found any concrete idea, which divisions should be converted and relocated to Rumania. I do have the feelind, though, that troops were shuffled around, without checking, what they did OTL.)

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Re: TMP Overall; German Options

Post by KDF33 » 05 Feb 2023 04:19

C.Z.A.R. wrote:
19 Jun 2022 22:45
What are Germany's sanity options?
-With a 1940 POD: Prepare for a multi-season campaign against the USSR (TMP's core argument).

-With a 1941 POD: Initiate the mobilization measures of the fall 1941 - winter 1942 period as soon as Barbarossa's initial assumptions are proven wrong (late July / early August 1941).

-With a 1942 POD: Abandon the entire Fall Blau concept, instead focus on sequentially destroying large RKKA groupings and on extending the depth, rather than the length, of the front. In other words, keep doing what the Ostheer was successfully doing in the May - July period.

-With a 1943 POD: Attack in the East in force somewhere - anywhere - in early May 1943.

-With a 1944 POD: Commit suicide.

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Re: TMP Overall; German Options

Post by KDF33 » 05 Feb 2023 05:27

historygeek2021 wrote:
05 Jun 2022 22:15
I can grant that the Red Army will be weaker in 1942 if Germany somehow pulls off this ATL. The question is, how much weaker. The Red Army fielded 5.4 million frontline soldiers by May 1942 historically and had another 3.5 million in reserve. Maybe the Red Army can only support 4 million frontline troops in 1942 if this ATL somehow works. It still has 1 or 2 million in reserve to replenish losses any time the Ostheer pulls off a kessel, and its extremely young male population is going to provide an endless supply of new recruits.
The Soviets didn't have an 'endless supply' of recruits. By the spring of 1942, they could no longer make good their losses after major encirclements.
historygeek2021 wrote:
05 Jun 2022 22:15
The Ostheer is going to be weaker than it was in 1941 ... all the planning and assuming in the world can't make up for the reality of attrition on the Eastern Front. That leaves Germany with one more summer campaign, which might encircle a few more Soviet armies and extend Germany's supply lines even further to the east, and maybe with the prescient Leadership in this ATL Germany avoids a Stalingrad disaster over the winter, but the Red Army is still growing stronger.
Absent Stalingrad, by mid-1942 attrition was favoring Germany, not the USSR.

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Re: TMP Overall; German Options

Post by KDF33 » 05 Feb 2023 07:09

Huszar666 wrote:
09 Jun 2022 17:10
Mostly stuff doesn't just grow on trees, you would need workers, raw materials, capacity and time to build it. Just deciding, I need 50.000 more trucks and 1000 more tanks is not enough.
In the case of Germany during the early phase of WW2, this doesn't appear to be correct. To a large extent, the 'jump' in armaments production between 1941 and 1942 was, in fact, just that: the Germans 'decided' that they needed more stuff, and then produced it. The determinative variable appears to have been the mobilization of slave labor, first starting tentatively in late 1941, and then expanding in earnest after Sauckel's appointment in March 1942.

In terms of raw materials and machine tool/plant capacity, the Germans had significant slack in 1941.

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