Stalin orders total mobilization before Barbarossa

Discussions on alternate history, including events up to 20 years before today. Hosted by Terry Duncan.
Huszar666
Member
Posts: 129
Joined: 18 Dec 2021 14:02
Location: Budakeszi

Re: Stalin orders total mobilization before Barbarossa

Post by Huszar666 » 10 Jun 2022 21:05

In 1942, after total mobilization was implemented, the USSR produced 287,000.
No, they did not produce that many pieces of field artillery. Neither in 1942, nor anytime later.

The highest number produced was 1944 with 20.733. Do not mix up the soviet counting method for "artillery" with everyone else's method (where only field pieces were counted)

historygeek2021
Member
Posts: 631
Joined: 17 Dec 2020 06:23
Location: Laniakea

Re: Stalin orders total mobilization before Barbarossa

Post by historygeek2021 » 10 Jun 2022 21:38

Huszar666 wrote:
10 Jun 2022 21:05
No, they did not produce that many pieces of field artillery. Neither in 1942, nor anytime later.

The highest number produced was 1944 with 20.733. Do not mix up the soviet counting method for "artillery" with everyone else's method (where only field pieces were counted)
Source? Per Dunn, 1942 was the highest year for field artillery production (excluding mortars and 45 mm anti-tank guns): 30,100. It declined to 22,100 in 1943 because they had more than enough. Stalin's Keys to Victory, p. 143.

This dwarfs peak Germany production in 1944 of 13,000 105mm and 150mm howitzers. USSBS p. 187.

In any event, the USSR had an abundance of artillery in every year of the war in the OTL. Every scholar is in agreement on that. Filling out more divisions, corps and armies with a full complement of artillery would not have been a problem in the ATL.

Carl Schwamberger
Host - Allied sections
Posts: 9166
Joined: 02 Sep 2006 20:31
Location: USA

Re: Stalin orders total mobilization before Barbarossa

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 11 Jun 2022 03:03

historygeek2021 wrote:
10 Jun 2022 14:01
.... A poor country like the Soviet Union is never going to field divisions with the quality of the U.S. Army or even the Wehrmacht. ...
I don't see it that way, that is the USSR was a not a poor but resource rich industrial state. Including a large portion of the population who were well skilled & educated. & all that was misused and inefficiently exploited for defense.

Carl Schwamberger
Host - Allied sections
Posts: 9166
Joined: 02 Sep 2006 20:31
Location: USA

Re: Stalin orders total mobilization before Barbarossa

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 11 Jun 2022 03:19

Art wrote:
10 Jun 2022 19:57
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
09 Jun 2022 05:11
Im skeptical creating a offensive capable leadership in a year for 600 divisions would happen.
Why would they need leadership for 600 divisions, when the plan was to mobilize only 303?
Mobilization of the army of 303 divisons was mostly possible with available resources. According to Timoshenko and Zhukov (February 1941)
Needed for the mobilized army - 1 003 917 officers for all grades
Available as of 1.1.41 - 527 456
Graduation of cadets from military schools - 93 138
Promotion of enlised men with higher or completed secondary education - 121 118 (*)
Call of reserve officers - 465 190
Total - 1 206 902
There was a shortage in certain categories (medical officers, tank, signal, engineer officers), but as far as total numbers are concerned, there was even some surplus for replacement of casualties.

* Enlisted men of the active army who graduated from universities or secondary schools (and were undergoing training as reserve officers) were to be automatically promoted to officer positions with the start of mobilization.
Oh I agree there, expanding far beyond the goals of the 1939 plans creates a new set of problems.

These two groups are difficult enough to bring up to the needed skill levels
Promotion of enlised men with higher or completed secondary education - 121 118 (*)
Call of reserve officers - 465 190
Add in the over promotion of the cadres of 1939 due to the purges & the pool is even weaker.

Art
Forum Staff
Posts: 6509
Joined: 04 Jun 2004 19:49
Location: Moscow, Russia

Re: Stalin orders total mobilization before Barbarossa

Post by Art » 11 Jun 2022 05:45

historygeek2021 wrote:
10 Jun 2022 20:01
Conscription was lengthened to 3 years in 1939. Stumbling Colossus, p. 99.
Only for NCOs (and also personnel of air forces and border guard). The default service length for privates was still 2 years.
Per Lopukhovsky, there were 4,004,000 permanent casualties by December 1, during which period there were 2,130,000 field replacements.
You should also consider personnel recieved at mobilization (not counted as replacements) and arrivals of entire units and formations (not counted either).

Huszar666
Member
Posts: 129
Joined: 18 Dec 2021 14:02
Location: Budakeszi

Re: Stalin orders total mobilization before Barbarossa

Post by Huszar666 » 11 Jun 2022 06:38

Source? Per Dunn, 1942 was the highest year for field artillery production (excluding mortars and 45 mm anti-tank guns): 30,100. It declined to 22,100 in 1943 because they had more than enough. Stalin's Keys to Victory, p. 143.
It's in the link I posted. Click "production of guns 1939-1945".
for 1942 it gives 22619 pieces built.
Ok, you got me there, that was 1886 pieces more than 1944.

The number of 30.100 includes the AA guns too, including 236 pieces of 25mm and 3896 of 37mm. Those are still not field pieces.

Just for comperasion: for 300 further divisions plus corps-, army- and STAVKA-level stuff, you would need around 20.000 further pieces (probably more, I'm not in the mood to calculate a more exact number), while the production of field pieces were:
1940: 5.381
1941: 9.455 -and after Late-June the number probably went up sharply.

So, from May 1940 to May 1941 there were probably around 6000 field pieces manufactured. You would need at least quadrolupe the number to be able to outfit the OTL troops AND the new, further 300 divisions. With 26.000 pieces, you would be still over 1942 by 3500 pieces or so.

historygeek2021
Member
Posts: 631
Joined: 17 Dec 2020 06:23
Location: Laniakea

Re: Stalin orders total mobilization before Barbarossa

Post by historygeek2021 » 11 Jun 2022 14:17

Art wrote:
11 Jun 2022 05:45

Only for NCOs (and also personnel of air forces and border guard). The default service length for privates was still 2 years.
No, Glantz says, "the term of military service for enlisted men and NCOs" was increased to 3 years.
You should also consider personnel recieved at mobilization (not counted as replacements) and arrivals of entire units and formations (not counted either).
It was the pre-war units that suffered the heaviest losses: 3rd, 10th, 4th, 13th, 16th, 19th, 20th, 5th, 6th, 12th, 26th, 18th and 9th armies all destroyed.

What are "personnel received at mobilization"?

historygeek2021
Member
Posts: 631
Joined: 17 Dec 2020 06:23
Location: Laniakea

Re: Stalin orders total mobilization before Barbarossa

Post by historygeek2021 » 11 Jun 2022 15:31

Huszar666 wrote:
11 Jun 2022 06:38

The number of 30.100 includes the AA guns too, including 236 pieces of 25mm and 3896 of 37mm. Those are still not field pieces.
No, Dunn is clear that he excludes AA guns and AT guns.

Just for comperasion: for 300 further divisions plus corps-, army- and STAVKA-level stuff, you would need around 20.000 further pieces (probably more, I'm not in the mood to calculate a more exact number), while the production of field pieces were:
1940: 5.381
1941: 9.455 -and after Late-June the number probably went up sharply.

So, from May 1940 to May 1941 there were probably around 6000 field pieces manufactured. You would need at least quadrolupe the number to be able to outfit the OTL troops AND the new, further 300 divisions. With 26.000 pieces, you would be still over 1942 by 3500 pieces or so.
Not sure how accurate your website is but Dunn lists 3 factories that were each capable of producing more than 10,000 76 mm field guns per year. Per Glantz and боевой состав Советской Армии, the total Red Army on June 22, 1941 required approximately 10,000 76 mm field guns (198 rifle divisions x 44; 61 tank divisions x 12; 31 motorized divisions x 24) and Dunn gives the total available at the start of Barbarossa at 32,000 (p. 33), so theoretically the Red Army could have tripled in size and still had enough 76 mm field guns without any increase in production. That's just 76 mm field guns but per Glantz Table 6.3 the supply of 122 mm howitzers was even better and per Dunn just 3 factories were capable of producing nearly 20,000 122 mm and 152 mm howitzers per year (pp. 30-32).

Art
Forum Staff
Posts: 6509
Joined: 04 Jun 2004 19:49
Location: Moscow, Russia

Re: Stalin orders total mobilization before Barbarossa

Post by Art » 12 Jun 2022 10:33

historygeek2021 wrote:
11 Jun 2022 14:17
What are "personnel received at mobilization"?
When mobilization was declared millions of reservists were called to their units. That meant a large increase of the operational army above pre-war strength.
No, Glantz says, "the term of military service for enlisted men and NCOs" was increased to 3 years.
That's wrong then. According to the law on universal military service of 1939 the length of service was establihsed as follows:
2 years for privates of ground forces
3 years for NCOs of ground forces
3 years for privates and NCOs of air forces
4 years for privates and NCOs of Navy coastal units
5 years for privates and NCOs of Navy's ships
2 years for privates of NKVD interior forces
3 years for NCOs of interior forces
3 years for privates and NCOs of ground elements of border guard
4 years for privates and NCOs of border guard's ships
https://www.soldat.ru/doc/law/law_war/war1939.html
That means that the basic lenght (for privates of ground forces and interior troops) remained unchanged.

historygeek2021
Member
Posts: 631
Joined: 17 Dec 2020 06:23
Location: Laniakea

Re: Stalin orders total mobilization before Barbarossa

Post by historygeek2021 » 12 Jun 2022 14:51

Art wrote:
12 Jun 2022 10:33

When mobilization was declared millions of reservists were called to their units. That meant a large increase of the operational army above pre-war strength.
And these reservists somehow went immediately to the units at the front? Got a source on that?
What is soldat.ru? Who publishes it? How do we know it's more reliable than David Glantz?

ljadw
Member
Posts: 13127
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: Stalin orders total mobilization before Barbarossa

Post by ljadw » 12 Jun 2022 16:19

Art did not say that these units were at the front : on June 22 most Soviet units were not at the front, but far away (hundreds or thousands of km )
How do we know that Glantz is more reliable than soldat.ru ? :he is NOT the Bible .

historygeek2021
Member
Posts: 631
Joined: 17 Dec 2020 06:23
Location: Laniakea

Re: Stalin orders total mobilization before Barbarossa

Post by historygeek2021 » 12 Jun 2022 16:39

ljadw wrote:
12 Jun 2022 16:19
Art did not say that these units were at the front : on June 22 most Soviet units were not at the front, but far away (hundreds or thousands of km )
Reservists are called up. They either (1) go to their internal military districts to form new units, (2) join the field replacement battalions, or (3) are "received" by existing formations. I have seen references to the first 2, but not the 3rd until Art's post. I'm asking for sources and information on (3). I have a hard time seeing how the formations in the western USSR received reservists the third way. Maybe some standing formations in the interior and Far East received units the third way, but not many were transferred to the west.

ljadw
Member
Posts: 13127
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: Stalin orders total mobilization before Barbarossa

Post by ljadw » 12 Jun 2022 18:15

Most of the existing formations were in the internal military districts and not on the border, a lot of them were only ''divisions'' of a few thousand men .
One example "the 57 Stavka divisions ( = general reserve ) counted ,theoretically, 618000,in practice most of these divisions had only 5000/6000 men,the rest were non divisional and supply forces .At the mobilisation, these divisions got additional manpower .

Huszar666
Member
Posts: 129
Joined: 18 Dec 2021 14:02
Location: Budakeszi

Re: Stalin orders total mobilization before Barbarossa

Post by Huszar666 » 12 Jun 2022 18:39

Dunn lists 3 factories that were each capable of producing more than 10,000 76 mm field guns per year.
That would be interesting to know, which ones those were. Since the total of 76mm field guns NEVER went above 16.000 and change/year during the whole war.
the supply of 122 mm howitzers was even better and per Dunn just 3 factories were capable of producing nearly 20,000 122 mm and 152 mm howitzers per year (pp. 30-32).
20k total or each? Makes no difference, since 122+152mm NEVER went above 4200 and change/year during the whole war.
Dunn gives the total available at the start of Barbarossa at 32,000
armcharigeneral gives around 8.500, which is a much more believable number. Even IF we add mountain and regimental guns (6400 or so), we would STILL be around 15k, less than the half of the qouted number.
Not sure how accurate your website is
He quotes these sources:
A.Ivanov "Artillerija SSSR v period Vtoroy Mirovoy voiny" St. Petersburg, "Neva", 2003
Boyevoi i Chislennyi Sostav Vooruzhennykh Sil SSSR v Period Velikoy Otechestvennoy Voyny (1941-1945 gg). Statisticheskiy Sbornik No. 1 (22 Iyunia 1941), Moskva, Institut Voyennoi Istorii, 1994
Probably more accurate than any "Westerner" source.
No, Dunn is clear that he excludes AA guns and AT guns.
Since Dunn makes extraordinary false claims for at-is and production numbers, I would very much doubt, he is correct in this assumtion.

User avatar
Lars
Member
Posts: 662
Joined: 24 Nov 2004 16:58
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark

Re: Stalin orders total mobilization before Barbarossa

Post by Lars » 12 Jun 2022 20:21

These figures are not exact, but you get the idea. In the real Barbarossa the German:Soviet loss ratio was perhaps something like:

June-July 1:10
August-September 1:6
October-November 1:4
December 1:2.5

If the Red Army is fully mobilized many more Soviet troops will be at the border. They will not be surprised. Off the cuff, the loss ratio might sink to 1:8.

The border battles will be a hard nut for Germans to crack, but it will be the war they expected and wanted
which is a war close to their lines supply. It is much better for the Germans to meet more Soviet troops at the border battles in June rather than inside Russia later in 1941.

Even if the loss ratio in the border battles is as low as 1:6 I still think it will benefit the Germans.

Return to “What if”