What if Poland accepts the alliance with Hitler?

[PODS96]

Contrary to popular belief, when Hitler came to power, relations between Poland and Germany improved.

Hitler came to propose an anti-Soviet alliance to Poland in the 30s but this was flatly refused.

If Poland had accepted, how would everything have changed? Was there a second world war?

[wm]

It depends if we believe Hitler had a plan or if he was dragged into endless war by his own mistakes.
The one certain thing is there would be civil war in Poland because the Poles were solidly pro-French and even more solidly anti-German.
Then Germany would have to intervene and occupy Poland.
Britain and France would disengage from Eastern Europe, but that isn't certain.

[gebhk]

Hi PODS

I suspect it would have changed very little (except for the Poles). Hitler evidently had a plan - which was to destroy the USSR and occupy large chunks of its territory. To do that he needed to neutralise France. And to neutralise France, he needed to neutralise Poland. If Poland had allowed herself to be neutralised by alliance or indeed some other accommodation, one can speculate that the invasions of France and the Soviet Union would have taken place a year earlier than they did in fact. Beyond that, I see no reason to assume events would have escalated any differently than they did. Poland's strength and influence was simply not great enough to make much of a difference in the grand scheme of things.

As for the Poles, based on the experience of all other countries finding themselves in the same or similar situation in the late 30s, the chances are that She would have ended up in exactly the same political and geographical position as She did historically, but at the cost of far fewer lives.

Hi WM
I'm afraid I do not see where your certainty of a civil war comes from or that the Poles were solidly pro-French and solidly anti-German. The evidence from the scribbling classes is that these sentiments were very mixed. The bulk of the anti-German rhetoric seems to come from the intellectuals with a personal involvement in matters such as the Silesian Uprisings, the Corridor, Danzig, the Customs War etc. The pro-French sentiment seems even more elusive, with some of the greatest Francophiles like Sikorski out of favour and frequently out of the country, thus with little influence. As for the common folk, we know next to nothing. One can probably guess that the majority cared not a sheeps withitt while many of those who had lived in the pre-war Prussian zabor may well have been comparing positively their standard of living under the Prussians to that which they had in Poland.

[pugsville]

Contrary to popular belief, when Hitler came to power, relations between Poland and Germany improved.

Hitler came to propose an anti-Soviet alliance to Poland in the 30s but this was flatly refused.

If Poland had accepted, how would everything have changed? Was there a second world war?

Hitler was a lair. He often proposed alliances or deals with people ge fully intended to destroy. Agreement with Austrians? The Centre Party? Conservative German parties?

He had shown to utterly untrustworthy and lair. He proposals for anything were just words to get other people to do stuff with no bearing on his future conduct.

[gebhk]

He proposals for anything were just words to get other people to do stuff with no bearing on his future conduct.

Pretty much the definition of every political alliance seeker, says the cynic in me

[pugsville]

He proposals for anything were just words to get other people to do stuff with no bearing on his future conduct.

Prtetty much the definition of every political alliance seeker, says the cynic in me

This is more true for some than others. In world of lairs, Hitler is still notable example of the art.

Hitler lies at pretty much the extreme end of those who break just about every agreement they make.

To take his offer of alliance at face vale is not a reasonable thing. It certainly woudl not constrain his future behavior or provide a measure of security for Poland.

[gebhk]

To take his offer of alliance at face vale is not a reasonable thing. It certainly woudl not constrain his future behavior or provide a measure of security for Poland.

The fact is that no alliance can be taken at face value, as the Polish and Czechoslovak alliances with France proved. By and large they only work if the interests are alligned and the risks balanced. There was no alliance that could have provided a measure of security for Poland. Going by all the other countries in the region, an accommodation - any accommodation - with Germany, offered the best chance of a the least bad outcome. Off course this was unknowable for the people, making the decisions in 1933-39.

[T. A. Gardner]

If this actually were the case, I'd suspect Hitler would eventually still invade Russia and being several hundred miles closer to Moscow, take the country. What would follow is Poland being subsumed into the Reich and the same Holocaust with an equally willing Polish population letting it happen. All Poland does by accepting a deal with the Devil is pave their own path to the deepest parts of Hell.

[gebhk]

All Poland does by accepting a deal with the Devil is pave their own path to the deepest parts of Hell.

This argument is made often, but is not supported by one single historical example. All actual outcomes showed the opposite. All those countries in the area that made an accommodation with Germany did better overall during the war and after it and had a significantly lower Holocaust death toll too.

I have no doubt that Hitler would have invaded the Soviet Union and I have no doubt that he would have failed, regardless of whether he captured Moscow or not. I concur that it is likely that, if his start line was the old Polish border of 1939, Moscow may well have been captured but I think it unlikely that that would have ended the war - and that has been debated to death elsewhere on the Forum, so probably not worth re-visiting here. And this assumes that the boundary would have remained where it was after a German takeover. At least as likely as not that Stalin would have demanded his chunk of Poland as the price of a R-M Pact and he would have got it.

[Gooner1]

To take his offer of alliance at face vale is not a reasonable thing. It certainly woudl not constrain his future behavior or provide a measure of security for Poland.

The fact is that no alliance can be taken at face value, as the Polish and Czechoslovak alliances with France proved. By and large they only work if the interests are alligned and the risks balanced. There was no alliance that could have provided a measure of security for Poland.

The best alliance Poland could have made was with Czechoslovakia.

[gebhk]

Amen - and vice versa. Can't argue with that. Indeed one under-the-counter proposal by the Chechoslovak military was never mind an alliance - but an outright Union. That, I have always thought, made for a much more interesting what-if than the whole German alliance thing!

For one thing, a deft handling of arrangements for regional government and status could have diffused many of the separatist issues plaguing both countries. For another, militarily, they complimented each other very well. I have spent much time several years ago, with a colleague, speculating what the army of such a union might have looked like

And if one wants to take this whole idea further, such a Union could pave the way for a much wider set of alliances - some version of the intermare concept.

[pugsville]

All Poland does by accepting a deal with the Devil is pave their own path to the deepest parts of Hell.

This argument is made often, but is not supported by one single historical example. All actual outcomes showed the opposite. All those countries in the area that made an accommodation with Germany did better overall during the war and after it and had a significantly lower Holocaust death toll too.

I have no doubt that Hitler would have invaded the Soviet Union and I have no doubt that he would have failed, regardless of whether he captured Moscow or not. I concur that it is likely that, if his start line was the old Polish border of 1939, Moscow may well have been captured but I think it unlikely that that would have ended the war - and that has been debated to death elsewhere on the Forum, so probably not worth re-visiting here. And this assumes that the boundary would have remained where it was after a German takeover. At least as likely as not that Stalin would have demanded his chunk of Poland as the price of a R-M Pact and he would have got it.

Hmm Russia had alliance with Germany. Suffered pretty badly. there you single example.

the Austria-German agreement of 1936 also failed to stop Nazi aggression.

As did the non aggression treaty with Poland.

[Peter89]

The only thing that could stop either the German or the Soviet-Russian aggression is the Austro-Hungarian Empire, or some version of it. Poland, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Yugoslavia, Austria, Hungary, the Baltic states, etc. were all weak, disorganized, divided, and hated each other as much as the two major powers. The moment when Austria was incorporated into the German Reich, all the rest of these countries should have been dissolved and integrated into one state.

[Carl Schwamberger]

All Poland does by accepting a deal with the Devil is pave their own path to the deepest parts of Hell.

This argument is made often, but is not supported by one single historical example. All actual outcomes showed the opposite. All those countries in the area that made an accommodation with Germany did better overall during the war and after it and had a significantly lower Holocaust death toll too.

I have no doubt that Hitler would have invaded the Soviet Union and I have no doubt that he would have failed, regardless of whether he captured Moscow or not. I concur that it is likely that, if his start line was the old Polish border of 1939, Moscow may well have been captured but I think it unlikely that that would have ended the war - and that has been debated to death elsewhere on the Forum, so probably not worth re-visiting here. And this assumes that the boundary would have remained where it was after a German takeover. At least as likely as not that Stalin would have demanded his chunk of Poland as the price of a R-M Pact and he would have got it.

Hmm Russia had alliance with Germany. Suffered pretty badly. there you single example.

the Austria-German agreement of 1936 also failed to stop Nazi aggression.

As did the non aggression treaty with Poland.

The Munich Agreement, treaty of October 1938 was violated in March 1939 & the Czech state invaded & disolved contrary to the treaty guarantees.

Versailles Treaty abbrogated unilaterally.

Young Plan abrogated unilaterally along with related banking agreements or contracts.

These two lists are just the major treaties or agreements. A cabinet full of lesser treaties, agreements, protocols... were routinely violated. By the summer of 1939 it was clear the nazi regime was wholly unreliable.

[gebhk]

Hmm Russia had alliance with Germany. Suffered pretty badly. there you single example.

If we were to be pedantic (God forbid!) the R-M pact was a pact of non-aggression, not an alliance and its secret protocol defined 'spheres of influence' not joint action or accord. Also the Pact was with the Soviet Union, not Russia. This is significant when we talk of casualties, because Russia, per capita, suffered relatively significantly less than, Latvia, Ukraina and especially Byelarus. In fact Russia's casualties, per capita, appear to be slightly below average for the Soviet Union as a whole.

Be that as it may, Poland too had non-aggression pacts with Germany and the Soviet Union. Much good they did her. Hence this is not what we are talking about here, but an actual alliance. And, of course the Soviet Union was hardly in the same position as Poland and all the other relatively small countries we are talking about here. Overall, of course, even this very dubious example fails because the per capita casualties of the Soviet Union were significantly lower than those of Poland.

Hi Peter
I concur that the intermare project was the only thing that could have counterbalanced Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. However, I doubt that would have stopped the war, with the end result probably being much the same as it was, but perhaps with even more death and destruction. An alliance or Union of Poland and Czechoslovakia was, to my mind, the essential precursor to any such wider alliance or union.