What if Rommel digs in (or even evacuates) after the capture of Tobruk?

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Von Bock
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What if Rommel digs in (or even evacuates) after the capture of Tobruk?

#1

Post by Von Bock » 12 May 2023, 11:11

After Ghazala and the capture of Tobruk in 1942, Rommel had won a very important victory and had succeeded in inflicting far more enemy casualties than his own. This was badly needed since the Germans were usually not in the majority.

One thing was still completely the same after the battle: The English had more troops and tanks, and it was clear that with the added Americans it would almost be impossible to continue the war in North Africa. What was worse, the Axis supply lines were terrible and under constant fire from Allied bombers.

The major problem was that it is recognized throughout military history that an attacker may need a numerical advantage of up to three to one, in order to succeed. Rommel did not have any such advantage.

In my opinion, it would have made total sense to stop at Tobruk and fortify the region. Rommel should have decided to establish a defensive line in Libia. What if Rommel does not enter Egypt at all and instead digs in?

Or even more: What if he considers the job done and evacuates all of his forces to Italy? Not a very likely scenario after a victory but still the best probable scenario in hindsight.

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Re: What if Rommel digs in (or even evacuates) after the capture of Tobruk?

#2

Post by Peter89 » 12 May 2023, 14:17

Von Bock wrote:
12 May 2023, 11:11
After Ghazala and the capture of Tobruk in 1942, Rommel had won a very important victory and had succeeded in inflicting far more enemy casualties than his own. This was badly needed since the Germans were usually not in the majority.

One thing was still completely the same after the battle: The English had more troops and tanks, and it was clear that with the added Americans it would almost be impossible to continue the war in North Africa. What was worse, the Axis supply lines were terrible and under constant fire from Allied bombers.
It was not really about the number of troops but the supplies.
Von Bock wrote:
12 May 2023, 11:11
The major problem was that it is recognized throughout military history that an attacker may need a numerical advantage of up to three to one, in order to succeed. Rommel did not have any such advantage.
This ratio is often quoted but almost as many times misinterpreted.
Nobody in fact had a numerical advantage of 3:1 until 1944. And to achieve that advantage, the Allies had to grind down the Axis while outproducing them.
Von Bock wrote:
12 May 2023, 11:11
In my opinion, it would have made total sense to stop at Tobruk and fortify the region. Rommel should have decided to establish a defensive line in Libia. What if Rommel does not enter Egypt at all and instead digs in?
Terrible idea.

Von Bock wrote:
12 May 2023, 11:11
Or even more: What if he considers the job done and evacuates all of his forces to Italy? Not a very likely scenario after a victory but still the best probable scenario in hindsight.
Most definately true. As these troops were definately needed earlier on the Eastern Front, an even earlier evacuation is even better.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."


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Re: What if Rommel digs in (or even evacuates) after the capture of Tobruk?

#3

Post by Huszar666 » 12 May 2023, 16:51

Abandoning Africa even one day earlier than necessary leads to even more and larger problems down the road. If the British aren't occupied with running up and down between El Al and Tripoli, they could have some strange ideas. Like landing somewhere in the Mediterranean. Sicily, Greece, Sardinia. Somewhere.
And they could have taken French North Africa waaaay earlier.

Even if Germany pulls out every last soldier from Africa, exactly zero troops could have been released for the Eastern Front, because they, and probably, even more, had to be left everywhere, that faced the Med. Since, the UK could land everywhere and at any time.

While Rommel's idea to push after the retreating 8th Army wasn't his best idea in hindsight, invading Egypt had at least a minuscule chance to be successful. IF Alexandria could have been secured, the supply situation would have been improved overnight. And yes, even reaching the Suez was theoretically possible. With THAT, every British position on the East Cost would become untenable.

Of course, Rommel couldn't surf on the 'net and check, what the UK still had in Egypt, so had to act on the information he had.

In hindsight, the push till Mersa Matruh was a sound idea - as soon as the retreating troops weren't destroyed there, every further advance was questionable. Even so, 1st El Al (in July) was a very close thing.

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Re: What if Rommel digs in (or even evacuates) after the capture of Tobruk?

#4

Post by Peter89 » 12 May 2023, 18:17

Huszar666 wrote:
12 May 2023, 16:51
Abandoning Africa even one day earlier than necessary leads to even more and larger problems down the road. If the British aren't occupied with running up and down between El Al and Tripoli, they could have some strange ideas. Like landing somewhere in the Mediterranean. Sicily, Greece, Sardinia. Somewhere.
And they could have taken French North Africa waaaay earlier.

Even if Germany pulls out every last soldier from Africa, exactly zero troops could have been released for the Eastern Front, because they, and probably, even more, had to be left everywhere, that faced the Med. Since, the UK could land everywhere and at any time.

While Rommel's idea to push after the retreating 8th Army wasn't his best idea in hindsight, invading Egypt had at least a minuscule chance to be successful. IF Alexandria could have been secured, the supply situation would have been improved overnight. And yes, even reaching the Suez was theoretically possible. With THAT, every British position on the East Cost would become untenable.

Of course, Rommel couldn't surf on the 'net and check, what the UK still had in Egypt, so had to act on the information he had.

In hindsight, the push till Mersa Matruh was a sound idea - as soon as the retreating troops weren't destroyed there, every further advance was questionable. Even so, 1st El Al (in July) was a very close thing.
1. The net gain on Vichy French Africa was negligible after Barbarossa.

2. To sustain 1 soldier / 1 tank / 1 aircraft in Africa required a disproportionate amount of effort.

3. The British had no way to invade mainland Europe before late 1942. Even then they did not have naval or aerial supremacy and they did not have a qualitative edge.

4. The chance to take Suez in 1942 was zero. (It could only be done by British mistakes.) Besides: it made no sense as the road from Suez led to nowhere and Germany had a manpower crisis already.

5. There were troops facing the Med already. The troops in NA could be released for the Eastern Front almost completely.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

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Re: What if Rommel digs in (or even evacuates) after the capture of Tobruk?

#5

Post by Huszar666 » 12 May 2023, 18:36

1, ???
2, for BOTH sides
3, the THREAT of an invasion was enough. See France. Even if the UK did not have the means, a LOT of German troops were sitting there idly.
4, No, it was not. The road from Suez leads to Syria, Iraq and Persia
5, No, they would and could not

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Re: What if Rommel digs in (or even evacuates) after the capture of Tobruk?

#6

Post by Peter89 » 12 May 2023, 19:01

Huszar666 wrote:
12 May 2023, 18:36
1, ???
2, for BOTH sides
3, the THREAT of an invasion was enough. See France. Even if the UK did not have the means, a LOT of German troops were sitting there idly.
4, No, it was not. The road from Suez leads to Syria, Iraq and Persia
5, No, they would and could not
The Vichy French colonies did not tie down a significant portion of Allied forces in 1942.

The Allies could afford to sustain troops in Africa, the Axis couldn't.

The Axis stationed troops in Italy, the Balkans and in France, too, and the Wallies did not have the necessary air and naval supremacy they ought to have for a successful landing before late 1942.

That road led nowhere in 1942. Syria, Iraq and Iran was firmly under Allied control and the Germans did not have the manpower to guard all these areas.

Like I said, there were enough troops on the northern shores of the Med to deal with a theoretical Allied invasion, so most of the African troops could go to the East.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

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Re: What if Rommel digs in (or even evacuates) after the capture of Tobruk?

#7

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 12 May 2023, 21:30

Peter89 wrote:
12 May 2023, 19:01
Like I said, there were enough troops on the northern shores of the Med to deal with a theoretical Allied invasion, so most of the African troops could go to the East.
German troops in 1942 - not so much!
Von Bock wrote:
12 May 2023, 11:11
In my opinion, it would have made total sense to stop at Tobruk and fortify the region. Rommel should have decided to establish a defensive line in Libia. What if Rommel does not enter Egypt at all and instead digs in?

Or even more: What if he considers the job done and evacuates all of his forces to Italy? Not a very likely scenario after a victory but still the best probable scenario in hindsight.
Hmmm, Rommel didn't really have that much autonomy of course! The Italians were also involved!

Regards

Tom

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Re: What if Rommel digs in (or even evacuates) after the capture of Tobruk?

#8

Post by Urmel » 13 May 2023, 00:07

Von Bock wrote:
12 May 2023, 11:11
1) In my opinion, it would have made total sense to stop at Tobruk and fortify the region. Rommel should have decided to establish a defensive line in Libia. What if Rommel does not enter Egypt at all and instead digs in?

2) Or even more: What if he considers the job done and evacuates all of his forces to Italy? Not a very likely scenario after a victory but still the best probable scenario in hindsight.
2) Is just not a decision to make at his pay grade. Even Field Marshals with ideas way above their station such as Rommel don't get to abandon a theatre because they feel like it. The only person who could make that call was Hitler.

1) Why? What would be the point of that? The whole purpose of the German presence at this point was to get into Egypt and the Nile Delta. They did the 'dig in and fortify' bit in late spring 1941. It didn't work and they lost the whole garrison of Bardia and Halfaya during CRUSADER. Not an experience to be repeated.

What would maybe have made sense (and a more realistic WI) is to consider a break after taking Tobruk, reallocating resources to taking Malta, then build up again in Marmarica and eventually invade Egypt. I'm sure there is more than one WI on this already though.
The enemy had superiority in numbers, his tanks were more heavily armoured, they had larger calibre guns with nearly twice the effective range of ours, and their telescopes were superior. 5 RTR 19/11/41

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Re: What if Rommel digs in (or even evacuates) after the capture of Tobruk?

#9

Post by Aber » 14 May 2023, 10:52

Von Bock wrote:
12 May 2023, 11:11
One thing was still completely the same after the battle: The English had more troops and tanks, and it was clear that with the added Americans it would almost be impossible to continue the war in North Africa. What was worse, the Axis supply lines were terrible and under constant fire from Allied bombers.

The major problem was that it is recognized throughout military history that an attacker may need a numerical advantage of up to three to one, in order to succeed. Rommel did not have any such advantage.
Rommel had the advantage of a good source of intelligence; reporting by the US military attaché via codes broken by the Italians. He knew both numbers and British views of the situation.

Allied supply lines had to go round Africa - the US promised tanks which took months to deliver and so could not immediately affect the current campaign.

In the Western Desert the key issue was number of serviceable tanks, where Rommel did have an advantage.

The attempt to reach Cairo/Alexandria was a reasonable gamble; staying at El Alamein long term was not.

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Re: What if Rommel digs in (or even evacuates) after the capture of Tobruk?

#10

Post by Gooner1 » 14 May 2023, 15:21

Where would there be better to dig in than El Alamein?

Everywhere else can be outflanked, and was, including the El Agheila position and the Mareth Line.
.
People forget that if it hadn't been for the fortunate (for the British) shoot down of 'Strafer' Gott, the Axis probably had a fifty-fifty chance, if not better, of smashing Eighth Army again and seizing Alexandria and Cairo.

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Re: What if Rommel digs in (or even evacuates) after the capture of Tobruk?

#11

Post by Huszar666 » 14 May 2023, 18:51

Where would there be better to dig in than El Alamein?
Suez. Can't be flanked either, and Alexandria is quite close, and the largest port anywhere in the 'hood. :D 8-)

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Re: What if Rommel digs in (or even evacuates) after the capture of Tobruk?

#12

Post by EwenS » 15 May 2023, 10:32

While the Suez Canal can’t be flanked without an amphibious assault (for which some British assets existed in theatre in 1942), it is about 2-3 times longer than the front line at El Alamein to defend.

And crossing it is just like crossing a river. Not the easiest exercise in warfare but both the Egyptians and the Israelis managed it during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The Canal has been widened several times during its lifespan. Here is a photo of a carrier passing through during ww2. Flight deck width approx 90 feet

www.royalnavyresearcharchive.org.uk/ESC ... iter22.jpg

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Re: What if Rommel digs in (or even evacuates) after the capture of Tobruk?

#13

Post by thaddeus_c » 15 May 2023, 14:51

Urmel wrote:
13 May 2023, 00:07
What would maybe have made sense (and a more realistic WI) is to consider a break after taking Tobruk, reallocating resources to taking Malta, then build up again in Marmarica and eventually invade Egypt. I'm sure there is more than one WI on this already though.
that's a good point and it was the German plan, at least tentatively(?) how do you think that would affect Allied operations for the rest of 1942, would the "benefits" to the Axis of gaining Malta be swamped by Operation Torch?

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Re: What if Rommel digs in (or even evacuates) after the capture of Tobruk?

#14

Post by Von Bock » 16 May 2023, 12:03

Interesting analysis by Robert Citino:

https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/a ... ps-1941-43
The Gazala-Tobruk sequence was the greatest victory of Rommel’s career, not merely a triumph on the tactical level, but an operational level win, a victory that even General Halder could love. Call it Rommel’s Rule #1, which is still a recipe for success today: “Be sure to erupt into your opponent’s rear with an entire Panzer army in the opening moments of the battle.”

Even here, however, let us be honest. Smashing 8th Army at Gazala and taking tens of thousands of prisoners at Tobruk did little to solve the strategic problem. Unless the British were destroyed altogether, they would reinforce to a level the Axis could not match. Many later analysts argue that the Panzerarmee should have paused now, waited until some sort of combined airborne-naval operation had been launched against Malta to improve the logistics, and only then acted. Such arguments ignore the dynamic of the desert battle, however; they ignore the morale imperative of keeping a victorious army in motion; above all they ignore the personality of Rommel himself.

Pause? Halt? Wait? Anyone who expected Rommel to ease up on the throttle clearly hadn’t been paying attention. Instead, the Panzerarmee vaulted across the border into Egypt with virtually no preparation. To Rommel, to his men, and even to Hitler and Mussolini, it must have looked like a great victory lay just over the next horizon: Cairo, Alexandria, the Suez Canal, the British Empire itself.

In reality, it is possible today to see what the great Prussian philosopher of war Karl von Clausewitz once called the “culmination point”--that moment in every campaign when the offensive begins to lose steam, run down, and eventually stop altogether. The Panzerarmee was exhausted, its equipment was worn out and in desperate need of repair. Captured British stores and vehicles had become its life-blood, Canadian Ford trucks in particular. The manpower was breaking down. A chronic shortage of potable water had put thousands of soldiers on the sick rolls. Colonel Siegfried Westphal, the Panzerarmee’s operations chief (the “Ia,” in German parlance), was yellow with jaundice. The army’s intelligence chief (the “Ic”), Colonel Friedrich Wilhelm von Mellenthin, was wasting away with amoebic dysentery. Rommel had a little of both, as well as a serious blood-pressure problem (no doubt stress-induced) and a chronic and bothersome sinusitis condition. While it would be easy to view all these illnesses as simple bad luck, they were, in fact, the price Rommel and all the rest of them were paying for fighting an overseas expeditionary campaign with inadequate resources.

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Re: What if Rommel digs in (or even evacuates) after the capture of Tobruk?

#15

Post by Urmel » 16 May 2023, 12:19

The relevant section in there makes for instructive reading.

https://rommelsriposte.com/2018/03/10/o ... -navarini/

I mostly agree with Citino. Where I depart is on whether there was a morale imperative or location-specific dynamic at work that prevented a halt. I think it was a command failure, like the Dash to the Wire, but writ large.
The enemy had superiority in numbers, his tanks were more heavily armoured, they had larger calibre guns with nearly twice the effective range of ours, and their telescopes were superior. 5 RTR 19/11/41

The CRUSADER Project - The Winter Battle 1941/42

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