What if Rommel defeats Crusader?

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Von Bock
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What if Rommel defeats Crusader?

#1

Post by Von Bock » 17 May 2023, 09:19

Geoffrey Cox wrote that Sidi Rezegh was the "forgotten battle" of the Desert War. Crusader was "won by a hair’s breadth" by the Eighth Army but "had we lost it, we would have had to fight the battle of Alamein six months or a year earlier, without the decisive weapon of the Sherman tank".

What our your thoughts on this? In the OTL this episode is usually considered a small British victory. But it could have been different, which could have meant a German victory in 1942.

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Re: What if Rommel defeats Crusader?

#2

Post by Princess Perfume » 24 May 2023, 16:39

food for thought indeed?


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Urmel
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Re: What if Rommel defeats Crusader?

#3

Post by Urmel » 24 May 2023, 17:11

Von Bock wrote:
17 May 2023, 09:19
Geoffrey Cox wrote that Sidi Rezegh was the "forgotten battle" of the Desert War. Crusader was "won by a hair’s breadth" by the Eighth Army but "had we lost it, we would have had to fight the battle of Alamein six months or a year earlier, without the decisive weapon of the Sherman tank".

What our your thoughts on this? In the OTL this episode is usually considered a small British victory. But it could have been different, which could have meant a German victory in 1942.
1) I don't think Cox has thought this through. At all.
2) You need to define your idea a bit more. Won at which point in the battle? What does 'win' look like?
3) I don't think that the destruction of the Axis tank force, the lifting of the siege of Tobruk, and the removal of tens of thousands of Axis soldiers and equipment, including crucial supply and logistics elements, should be counted as a 'small' victory.
The enemy had superiority in numbers, his tanks were more heavily armoured, they had larger calibre guns with nearly twice the effective range of ours, and their telescopes were superior. 5 RTR 19/11/41

The CRUSADER Project - The Winter Battle 1941/42

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Re: What if Rommel defeats Crusader?

#4

Post by Von Bock » 24 May 2023, 20:53

Urmel wrote:
24 May 2023, 17:11
Von Bock wrote:
17 May 2023, 09:19
Geoffrey Cox wrote that Sidi Rezegh was the "forgotten battle" of the Desert War. Crusader was "won by a hair’s breadth" by the Eighth Army but "had we lost it, we would have had to fight the battle of Alamein six months or a year earlier, without the decisive weapon of the Sherman tank".

What our your thoughts on this? In the OTL this episode is usually considered a small British victory. But it could have been different, which could have meant a German victory in 1942.
1) I don't think Cox has thought this through. At all.
2) You need to define your idea a bit more. Won at which point in the battle? What does 'win' look like?
3) I don't think that the destruction of the Axis tank force, the lifting of the siege of Tobruk, and the removal of tens of thousands of Axis soldiers and equipment, including crucial supply and logistics elements, should be counted as a 'small' victory.
1. All right. Why do you think so?
2. Inflict more damage on the enemy than yourself I guess? Defeat the bulk of the allied tank force? My idea would be: A comparable victory to the Axis victory at Tobruk/Gazala 6 months later.
3. We can discuss about that, that's not really the point. It was at least not decisive.

So, basically: If Rommel enters Egypt 6 months earlier, does he have a better chance than in July 1942?

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Re: What if Rommel defeats Crusader?

#5

Post by Huszar666 » 24 May 2023, 21:40

The 8th Army lost twice previously at the same stretch of nothing, and what happened? Nothing. Tobruk held out, and the 8th Army tried it another time a bit later.
Even if Crusader is defeated at the border, Tobruk could still hold out for... a long time, and without taking Tobruk, Rommel would have around zero chance to invade Egypt.
Even with a victory at Crusader, Rommel still would have needed to rebuild the troops, wait for reinforcements, take Tobruk, and survive another try in, say, February (let's call it Operation Templar). So, at best comes May 1942 he would stil sit at the border instead of Gazalla.

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Re: What if Rommel defeats Crusader?

#6

Post by Urmel » 24 May 2023, 23:19

Indeed. There isn't really a path to a Gazala-style defeat that I can see.
The enemy had superiority in numbers, his tanks were more heavily armoured, they had larger calibre guns with nearly twice the effective range of ours, and their telescopes were superior. 5 RTR 19/11/41

The CRUSADER Project - The Winter Battle 1941/42

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Re: What if Rommel defeats Crusader?

#7

Post by Peter89 » 25 May 2023, 00:39

Do we actually have some proof that the British wanted to push the Axis out of North Africa before the tide decisively turned against them? In my understanding, Churchill accepted the battle in the Mediterranean deliberately and willingly. It seems that Churchill used the southern and southeastern periphery as a training ground for Commonwealth units and generals, as well as for interservice cooperation.

It is entirely possible that the British would lure more and more Axis troops into Africa and systematically defeat them. They were never really in a danger of losing Alexandria after the summer of 1941.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

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Re: What if Rommel defeats Crusader?

#8

Post by Urmel » 25 May 2023, 10:06

Peter89 wrote:
25 May 2023, 00:39
Do we actually have some proof that the British wanted to push the Axis out of North Africa before the tide decisively turned against them? In my understanding, Churchill accepted the battle in the Mediterranean deliberately and willingly. It seems that Churchill used the southern and southeastern periphery as a training ground for Commonwealth units and generals, as well as for interservice cooperation.

It is entirely possible that the British would lure more and more Axis troops into Africa and systematically defeat them. They were never really in a danger of losing Alexandria after the summer of 1941.
Yes we do have that proof. The operational planning for CRUSADER and post-CRUSADER is well established.
The enemy had superiority in numbers, his tanks were more heavily armoured, they had larger calibre guns with nearly twice the effective range of ours, and their telescopes were superior. 5 RTR 19/11/41

The CRUSADER Project - The Winter Battle 1941/42

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Re: What if Rommel defeats Crusader?

#9

Post by Princess Perfume » 25 May 2023, 13:54

By the way, I kind of wonder what would have happened to the wider war If Winnie had got his way about a full attack through the Adriatic/Balkans?

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Re: What if Rommel defeats Crusader?

#10

Post by EwenS » 25 May 2023, 15:48

Peter89 wrote:
25 May 2023, 00:39
......They were never really in a danger of losing Alexandria after the summer of 1941.
With hindsight perhaps. This is some extracts from the Mediterranean Fleet War Diary for 29/30 June 1942. Why undertake all the preparations if the danger wasn't seen to be real?

29 June 1942

Operation DISCRETION (N)
3. The Flag of the Commander in Chief was transferred to FLAMINGO. At Gabbari preparations were begun for the transfer of the Administrative Staff to Port Said and the Operational Staff to a combined headquarters at Villa Laurens near 201 Naval Cooperation Group.
4. A 117 was sent to Gabbari steps to embark office furniture and records for Port Said.

5. "Y" interception ceased during the move of Chief of Intelligence Staff and staff to Ismailia.

Operation HORNBLOWER

6. The demolition of Alexandria Harbour, Stage Two was brought into force. Depth Charges and explosives were dumped but not placed in positions in order that our intentions should be disclosed to the Egyptians.

Blockships

7. GLENROY, R.F.A. BRAMBLELEAF, and two merchant ships were earmarked as blockships; these ships were chosen as they were all immobilized due to damage.

Merchant Shipping

8. The removal of unnecessary merchant shipping began; owing to insufficient escorts some were sailed unescorted.





Tuesday, 30th June 1942

Western Desert
The Eighth Army had withdrawn on to the El Alamein defensive lines. The Naval Liaison Officer, Eighth Army, returned from Headquarters, and reported the situation to the Commander in Chief. He reported that sea bombardments were now of little use due to dispersion and distance from coast. Twelve hours notice of any requirements would be given. Bombardment forces of two cruisers and destroyers were formed and sailed to Port Said and Haifa. C.S. 15 in CLEOPATRA and EURYALUS and destroyers formed Force B at Haifa; Rear Admiral (D) Mediterranean in DIDO with the ARETHUSA formed Force A at Port Said.

Air Raids
2. Minor air activity in the Alexandria area. One land mine was dropped on Dekheila aerodrome and two aircraft being slightly damaged.

Operation DISCRETION (N)
3. The Commander in Chief and Operational Staff were established in Villa Laurens, until recently occupied by the Torpedo Training School, H.M.S. PHAROS. The Operations Room and a few officers were accommodated in 201 Naval Cooperation Group Headquarters. This move to establish a combined Headquarters at 201 Naval Cooperation Group had long been contemplated.

4. The Commander in Chief's Administrative Staff left by rail for Port Said to set up officers in the Marina Savoy Hotel.

5. Early in the day the military situation had somewhat deteriorated and all staff at PHAROS were at short notice to move again. All secret documents and papers not considered essential were destroyed to reduce baggage to a minimum.

6. All ships at Alexandria raised steam and the evacuation of shipping was ordered. This was relaxed to a certain extent by the end of the day as the military situation showed some improvement.

7. W.R.N.S. and official women were evacuated by train to Ismailia where they were embarked in S.S. PRINCESS KATHLEEN who was sailed for Suez.

8. As much shipping as possible was ordered south of the Canal.

9. Naval and Royal Marine personnel were used to assist the military to man the Alexandria defences.

10. Operation HORNBLOWER, State Three was ordered. All hands proceeded to their stations for demolitions.

Events in Alexandria Dockyard

11. The loading of merchant ships with naval, victualling, gunmounting, and armament stores took place throughout the day. Eight merchant ships were retained for the purpose.

12. Owing to the speed with which Operation DISCRETION (N) was brought into force, and Heads of Departments, due to security requirements, not having made the preparations beforehand, there was some dislocation in the Dockyard. Deliberate alarmist reports put out by fifth columnists contributed to the loss of many valuable stores by theft and looting. The rapid departure of many ratings and the staffs of some Departments, left buildings unguarded for a short period. In addition, many stores were taken on board minesweepers and small craft for eventual passage to Port Said; the majority of these were later recovered.

1st July 1942

Alexandria

2. Ammunition in the port area was reduced to nine days notice for evacuation.

French Fleet

3. As a result of the German advance in Egypt, the movement of French ships from Alexandria became a question of some urgency.

Operation HORNBLOWER

5. Stage three was reverted to four hours' notice.



Operation DISCRETION (N)

6. All staff at 201 Naval Cooperation Group and Villa Laurens remained at short notice to move, and gear was packed into lorries. The Ministry of War Transport, Middle East, and the Principal Sea Transport Officer, (Egypt)'s offices in Alexandria were closed down, being transferred to Suez.


2nd July 1942
Operation DISCRETION (N)

3. The Commander in Chief's Operational Staff transferred to Ismailia being established in Navy House. A few officers went by air, but remaining joining by road in convoy under the direction of the G.S.O. (Lieutenant Colonel Mosely). All arrived by nightfall without incident. The Chief of Intelligence Staff and Staff also reached Ismailia. Accommodation in Ismailia was very limited and the resourcefulness of the Naval Officer in Charge in finding accommodation for all was appreciated. The decision to establish the Commander in Chief's Operational Staff at Ismailia was taken due to the efficient communications at Ismailia, and the facilities for close touch with General Headquarters, Cairo, and H.M. Ships at Port Said.


4. 201 Naval Cooperation Group less an operational staff moved to Abu Sweir about 12 miles from Ismailia. Staff Officer (Intelligence), Mediterranean, and Staff Officer (Intelligence), Alexandria, were established at Port Said. JAVELIN reached Port Said with the Commander in Chief's officer records of a most secret nature.

And so it goes on. Ships and submarines were withdrawn to Haifa, Beirut and through the Suez Canal. It was not until 8 Aug that the CinC and the operational staff felt it safe enough to return to Alexandria, although the administrative staff remained at Port Said.

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Re: What if Rommel defeats Crusader?

#11

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 25 May 2023, 20:14

Peter89 wrote:
25 May 2023, 00:39
Do we actually have some proof that the British wanted to push the Axis out of North Africa before the tide decisively turned against them?
Yes there is plenty.
Urmel wrote:
25 May 2023, 10:06
Yes we do have that proof.
Agreed. Both in planning documents for Op Crusader itself and in both Prime Minister and Chiefs of Staff documents.

Regards

Tom

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Re: What if Rommel defeats Crusader?

#12

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 25 May 2023, 20:17

Urmel wrote:
24 May 2023, 23:19
There isn't really a path to a Gazala-style defeat that I can see.
I'm not entirely sure I'm totally in agreement with you here. I think I'm with those who consider that Rommel's "Dash to the Wire" occurred at a time when there were plenty of isolated British Commonwealth brigade groups scattered around begging to be tackled in detail.

Regards

Tom

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Re: What if Rommel defeats Crusader?

#13

Post by Peter89 » 25 May 2023, 21:45

Guys, thank you all for your answers. I still find it hard to believe that British planners thought that they could freely mop up the entire Axis position in Africa. Aren't you talking about taking Lybia? Can you point me to the relevant documents?
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

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Re: What if Rommel defeats Crusader?

#14

Post by Huszar666 » 26 May 2023, 22:11

The "8th Army" did not not-clear the Axis from N-Africa because of some conspiracy theory of the deep state, but because every time (early 1941 and early 1942), they simply run away from their logistical support. In early 1941, they were barely able to bring enough supply up to Tobruk, and on the border of Tripolitania, they were waaaay ahead of any supply chain.
Same happened in early 1942.
If not for Torch, most likely it would have happened early 1943 too.

The same happened to the Axis in December 1940 at Sidi Barani, Summer/Fall 1941 at the border, and Summer/Fall 1942 at El Al.

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Re: What if Rommel defeats Crusader?

#15

Post by Peter89 » 26 May 2023, 22:32

Huszar666 wrote:
26 May 2023, 22:11
The "8th Army" did not not-clear the Axis from N-Africa because of some conspiracy theory of the deep state, but because every time (early 1941 and early 1942), they simply run away from their logistical support. In early 1941, they were barely able to bring enough supply up to Tobruk, and on the border of Tripolitania, they were waaaay ahead of any supply chain.
Same happened in early 1942.
If not for Torch, most likely it would have happened early 1943 too.

The same happened to the Axis in December 1940 at Sidi Barani, Summer/Fall 1941 at the border, and Summer/Fall 1942 at El Al.
I agree.

Also, I believe that the fruits of the British strategy to tie up loose ends (ie eliminating Vichy control) coincided with German strategic exhaustion in late 1942. It could not happen before that.

Crusader is approximately at the same time as the Battle of Gondar, and it was not clear how the Vichy French fleet would react with their considerable fleet with the German troops advancing near Moscow. Especially at the planning phase, I believe it was more like a general sketch rather than a detailed plan - but I am open to be convinced otherwise.

The Wallies also made plans to defend the ME from a northern thrust coming from the Caucasus or via Turkey. That does not mean these plans were based on a realistic approach of the situation or that they were plausible alternative scenarios. As Williamson Murray put it, the German campaigns of 1942 fooled historians and contemporaries as well.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

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