Would Fidel Castro have taken power if Fulgencio Batista didn't return to power in Cuba?

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Cantankerous
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Would Fidel Castro have taken power if Fulgencio Batista didn't return to power in Cuba?

Post by Cantankerous » 17 Aug 2023 21:41

A while ago I found out that Fulgencio Batista, despite ruling Cuba as a dictator from March 1952 until January 1959, actually made his first foray into Cuban politics when he won the island's 1940 presidential election with backing from the Democratic Socialist Coalition (CSD), which included the Liberal Party, Nationalist Union Party, the Communist Revolutionary Union (which was the original Cuban Communist Party and renamed the Popular Socialist Party in the mid-1940s), and the Democratic National Association, in which case Batista initially had the support of communists but later became hostile to communism as soon as the Cold War began. Also, I learned that an opinion poll conducted before the Cuban presidential election which was scheduled to take place on June 1, 1952 showed that Fulgencio Batista lagged way behind other people vying to succeed Carlos Prio Socarras as president of Cuba, yet Batista chose to seize power in a coup on March 10, 1952 rather than accept that he was dead list in public opinion polling for the forthcoming 1952 Cuban presidential election, all but creating a lightning rod for Fidel Castro and his ilk to plant the seeds for their rise to power by repressing political opposition.

In your opinion, if Fulgencio Batista had chosen not to return to power in Cuba in a coup and the Cuban presidential election scheduled for June 1, 1952 had materialized, would Fidel Castro have gotten a seat in government or remained in the political wilderness (he had a degree in law but never had any prior knowledge of government or economics)? To be honest, those who blame the US for Castro's rise to power overlook the fact that Batista had Carlos Prio Socarras overthrown at his discretion and public opinion polling showed him lagging behind behind other people vying to become president of Cuba in the presidential election scheduled for June 1, 1952.

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Re: Would Fidel Castro have taken power if Fulgencio Batista didn't return to power in Cuba?

Post by James A Pratt III » 01 Sep 2023 20:35

TO put it short Yes

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Re: Would Fidel Castro have taken power if Fulgencio Batista didn't return to power in Cuba?

Post by James A Pratt III » 04 Sep 2023 16:19

In doing more research ect

Batista was the behind the scenes dictator of Cuba from 1934-40. Also note he was supported by the Cuban Communist party!? during the 1940-44 and 1952 1958 periods. As for the number of people killed during the 1952-59 period I believe the figure may have been less than 2000. This is from a figure I got from a book on Cuba I read many years ago.

Castro if Cuba had remained a democracy there is a chance he could have been president of Cuba one day. He was running for office when Batista's 1952 coup happened if elected then he has a number of things going for him. He came from a wealthy family, had charisma, was a leader, was ruthless lived a long life ect so Castro could have been elected President of Cuba. I don't think he would have been a very good one based on what he did as dictator.

Please note on Castro:

he turned one of the wealthiest countries in Latin America into a economic basket case
It is Communist police state where everyone spies on everyone else
He and his successors have killed over 100,000 people and are still killing people and somewhere between 1 and 2 million people have fled the country (This info is from someone who made a post on this site)
He was one really nasty dictator. Sadly a lot of usefull idiots can't help calling him a great man!?

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Re: Would Fidel Castro have taken power if Fulgencio Batista didn't return to power in Cuba?

Post by Cantankerous » 05 Sep 2023 00:00

James A Pratt III wrote:
04 Sep 2023 16:19
In doing more research ect

Batista was the behind the scenes dictator of Cuba from 1934-40. Also note he was supported by the Cuban Communist party!? during the 1940-44 and 1952 1958 periods. As for the number of people killed during the 1952-59 period I believe the figure may have been less than 2000. This is from a figure I got from a book on Cuba I read many years ago.

Castro if Cuba had remained a democracy there is a chance he could have been president of Cuba one day. He was running for office when Batista's 1952 coup happened if elected then he has a number of things going for him. He came from a wealthy family, had charisma, was a leader, was ruthless lived a long life ect so Castro could have been elected President of Cuba. I don't think he would have been a very good one based on what he did as dictator.

Please note on Castro:

he turned one of the wealthiest countries in Latin America into a economic basket case
It is Communist police state where everyone spies on everyone else
He and his successors have killed over 100,000 people and are still killing people and somewhere between 1 and 2 million people have fled the country (This info is from someone who made a post on this site)
He was one really nasty dictator. Sadly a lot of usefull idiots can't help calling him a great man!?
When Fulgencio Batista returned to power in 1952, he stood strong against communism, and that's why Cuban Interior Ministry official Rafael Diaz-Balart (father of Cuban-American politicians Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart) opposed Batista's amnesty for Fidel Castro because he suspected that Castro was a communist. Had the 1952 Cuban presidential election taken place, Fidel Castro could have broken ranks with his younger brother Raul (who became a Marxist Leninist after meeting KGB agent Nikolai Leonov) by instituting a centrist government like the one run by Venezuelan President Rómulo Betancourt whereby the moderate Cuban political right could make concessions to the center-left and allowing the US to have oil refineries redistribute wealth among rural Cubans and disaffected urban proletarians while breaking up sugar monopolies and creating medical facilities for the sick like the ones that exist in Scandinavian countries, because Castro initially promised his people a restoration of democracy yet reneged on that pledge under pressure from the radical wing of his guerrilla movement.

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T. A. Gardner
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Re: Would Fidel Castro have taken power if Fulgencio Batista didn't return to power in Cuba?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 12 Sep 2023 23:46

Castro took power because the US, unlike with the Dominican Republic decided not to send in the Marines and crush the rebellion. Had the US done that and propped up Batista, or his successor, Cuba wouldn't have gone communist.

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Re: Would Fidel Castro have taken power if Fulgencio Batista didn't return to power in Cuba?

Post by hselassi » 25 Sep 2023 21:21

Without Batista's coup, Cuba would have 20-30 years between Autentico and Ortodoxo governments of varying levels of corruption until the nature of economics brought about a modern law-based state (still ruled by variations of the Autenticos and Ortodoxos, just cleaner), much the same way economics put an end to slavery in Cuba and Brazil far more efficiently than any war or movement.
As far as Fidel, he would have been somewhere in there (Senator, maybe Minister, even President, who knows) but never dictator. His rise to power was almost lightning in a bottle (the mistake of his movement as nationalist instead of communist, the lack of cohesion of the other revolutionary movements (ABC, etc.), his murder of Camilo Cienfuegos, the apathy of the elder powers that be (Grau et al), the indifference of the US, and many other lucky coincidences - although he made the most of each of them). Fidel was bound for greatness the moment the Jesuits got their claws into him and turned a bright opportunist into a superlative one. Without them he would have just been another rich country bastard screwing the maids like his daddy before him.

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Re: Would Fidel Castro have taken power if Fulgencio Batista didn't return to power in Cuba?

Post by Princess Perfume » 30 Sep 2023 03:00

Of course, the socialism which inspired Castro's radicals - at least as the term was meant by the authors of the Socialist Objective adopted by the ALP in 1905 (the now conveniently forgotten second part of which supported racial purity - even Australian socialists supported White Australia for decades) is dead.

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