What if Belguim and Holland joined the allies?

[Sam H.]

When France and Britian declare war on Germany in September 1939, it should have been obvious that at some point, war would come to the West. And war in the West would almost guarantee Belguim and Holland's involvement. Certainly after the invasion of Denmark and Norway, even an blind man should have seen the writing on the wall (not to mention the capture of German plans that detailed an attack in Belguim and Holland).

So what if the realities woke up the governments and both countries (Holland and Belguim) welcomed the entry of allied troops? Would Hitler's paranoia about the danger to the Ruhr have brought about an earlier attack? Could the presence of allied troops have slowed down the German advance? Or did the Manstien plan doom the allies for their inability to see the danger to their forward deployed forces?

[Baltasar]

The german initial attack on both the Netherlands and Belgium was intended to lure allied troops to the north and thereby weakening their centre cadre. If they had already been stationed in Belgium/Netherland territory, it could just have sped up the german plan for the encircling. May be the pincer movement through the ardennes would have been reenforced, since the germans wouldn't need to present so many troops in the north, since they only needed to hold the allied at bay.

[Major Linden]

Or did the Manstien plan doom the allies for their inability to see the danger to their forward deployed forces?

I`ll go for the Manstein option...

Besides, surely Belgium and Holland had nothing to fear as Herr Hitler could be counted on to do the honorable thing and attack the Maginot line head on. Right, right?

Regards,

The Major

[Sam H.]

But, with when the allied forces marched into Belguim and Holland, this may have provoked Hitler into an invasion before the plans were finalized. Its hard to imagine Hilter allowing an allied army so close to the Ruhr, that was simply one of the many economic aspects of the war that haunted his every thought.

Say in January 1940, Belguim and Holland ask for allied assistance and the allies take up position. Could Hitler remain silent until May?

[Baltasar]

He had to. A head on attackon the allied lines would be difficult at least. Moving and fighting during winter conditions are much harder than in spring/summer. The "Gefreite" knew that. I also doubt that some of the vital airborne operations could have been executed.

[fredleander]

When France and Britian declare war on Germany in September 1939, it should have been obvious that at some point, war would come to the West. And war in the West would almost guarantee Belguim and Holland's involvement. Certainly after the invasion of Denmark and Norway, even an blind man should have seen the writing on the wall (not to mention the capture of German plans that detailed an attack in Belguim and Holland).

So what if the realities woke up the governments and both countries (Holland and Belguim) welcomed the entry of allied troops? Would Hitler's paranoia about the danger to the Ruhr have brought about an earlier attack? Could the presence of allied troops have slowed down the German advance? Or did the Manstien plan doom the allies for their inability to see the danger to their forward deployed forces?

It didn't happen in WWI. The strategic picture was much the same.

[Kurt_Steiner]

Belgium and Holland government before the war had done few things to improve their armies, because they believed that the neutrality was the best weapon. If they saw the "writing in the wall" and began to arm themselves, they would find a problem: lack of equipment. Ok, they may buy weapons in the USA, as France and the UK did -in OTL Belgium tried to buy planes in the UK, and they just got 24 Hurricanes and 24 old fashioned Fairey Battles-. And even if the got the weapons, they need to train the soldiers. In short, too few, too late.

[Tim Smith]

But, with when the allied forces marched into Belguim and Holland, this may have provoked Hitler into an invasion before the plans were finalized. Its hard to imagine Hilter allowing an allied army so close to the Ruhr, that was simply one of the many economic aspects of the war that haunted his every thought.

Say in January 1940, Belguim and Holland ask for allied assistance and the allies take up position. Could Hitler remain silent until May?

I agree. Hitler was too impulsive, he'd demand an immediate response to the Belgian and Dutch 'betrayal' and the Allied occupation of the Low Countries - no matter what the weather or the tactical situation on the ground. Manstein's clever Ardennes plan would be forgotten in the heat of the moment as the German Army plunged into a hasty and ill-considered offensive into Holland and Belgium, attacking the Allied armies head-on in an attempt to recreate the Schleiffen Plan.

This would probably lead to a disaster - at best the German would take Holland and Belgium, but then be too exhausted and too worn down by losses to conquer France. The increased urgency in France and Britain brought on by the earlier start to the fighting would mean that they would replace their losses faster. It is a lot more likely that France would hold out in this scenario.

[Baltasar]

Tim, as I tried to point out, this scenario would actually benefit the German initial assault. The Wehrmacht was far from being the seemingly unstoppable force which took hundreds of kilometres of russian soil in a few weeks (only to be thrown back later on). The war against Poland revealed a lot of problems and one of the worst was the lack of ammunition. I'm not sure if the Wehrmacht even had the ammunition to just start the next war against the western countries as early as late 1939, not to mention the neccessary equipment and training for a winter campaign. However impulsive the Führer was in the earlier years of WWII, I seriously doubt he'd have ordered operations to start that early. Later on, he distrusted the OKW a lot more and finally took over command of the armed forces, but in 1939, the commanders had enough influence to stop him from starting the operation right away.

They only had to convince him that the new situation actually benefitted the Reich a lot. They wouldn't have to justify their invasion of the BeNeLux, since they joined the allies an thereby declared war on the Reich and since the Frensh an British troops were already in the position the OKW wanted to lure them into, they didn't even have to change their plans. I'm not sure when exactly the OKW came up with the historical plan, but the new setup of allied forces would have encouraged them to execute it all the more.

[Tim Smith]

Baltasar:

The original Fall Gelb, the recreation of the Schleiffen Plan, was planned during October 1940, and due to start on 12 November 1939, on Hitler's direct orders. But on 5 November the Army Commander-in-Chief, von Brauchitsch, met with Hitler and delivered the Army's unanimous view that the Wehrmacht was not yet ready to take on the Allies. This was due to many tanks being under repair after the Polish campaign and the bad weather which would hinder the Luftwaffe. Hitler flew into a rage, but faced with opposition from the entire General Staff, was forced to postpone the offensive till spring.

On 10 January 1940 Fall Gelb was thoroughly compromised when a German courier aircraft got lost in bad weather and was forced down in Belgium. On board were two German staff officers, one of whom carried details of Fall Gelb in his briefcase. Despite a desperate attempt to destroy the papers after the crash, the men were quickly captured by Belgian troops. The plans were copied to the Dutch, French and British.

That was the main reason why Hitler was so willing to accept a new plan, Manstein's plan, in place of the original Fall Gelb. But this did not happen until 17 February 1940, when Hitler met Manstein. Before that, the OKH had tried to suppress the Manstein plan, and Manstein himself had been sent to command a corps in Poland on 27 January to get him out of the way.

If the Allies had started moving troops into the Low Countries in January 1940, before Hitler knew about the Manstein plan, he may very likely have been provoked into a hasty response that didn't take account of a panzer strike in the Ardennes. You can imagine him saying "Rubbish! If the Allies can move their troops in this weather, so can we! Attack now!"

[Baltasar]

Actually, the point that Belgium and the Netherlands would have their troops mobilised and thus would put up a lot more resistance than the Schlieffen Plan took into account, would work in favour of the Wehrmacht which was trying to postpone the attack because of said reasons. Since the Generals manged to keep Hitler under control historically, I don't see how he would have ordered an attack with even worse conditions at hand. On the other hand, I'd not bet on Hitlers sane mind to keep him at bay.

However, having been a soldier himself, he could as well say, that the staff is right, the Wehrmacht isn't prepared yet to take up the fight against 4 enemies at once and that the allied soldiers could as well freeze their behinds off at the border while the Wehrmacht is preparing for the next spring.

[Tim Smith]

This is the same Hitler that was so enraged by the Yugoslav coup that he ordered the Wehrmacht to launch an arguably unnecessary invasion of Yugoslavia after only 10 days preparation.

The defection of the Belgians and Dutch to the Allied side in January 1940 would be far more serious than that. I still see Hitler being totally freaked out and ordering an immediate attack before the Allied armies could get themselves solidly entrenched in the Low Countries.

[Baltasar]

This is the same Hitler that was so enraged by the Yugoslav coup that he ordered the Wehrmacht to launch an arguably unnecessary invasion of Yugoslavia after only 10 days preparation.

The defection of the Belgians and Dutch to the Allied side in January 1940 would be far more serious than that. I still see Hitler being totally freaked out and ordering an immediate attack before the Allied armies could get themselves solidly entrenched in the Low Countries.

The Wehrmacht was in a much better shape when it started operations against Yougoslavia. Also, the ammount of resistance expected from the Yougoslavian armed forces was much lower.

Yougoslavia was by no means as hard a nut as Frace, let alone France combined with Britain, Belgium and the Netherlands in poor weather conditions, with the better part of the German tanks undergoing repair and refit and with a large part of the Infantry undergoing retraining.

[Krakov]

Baltasar:
That was the main reason why Hitler was so willing to accept a new plan, Manstein's plan, in place of the original Fall Gelb.

Sorry, this is off-topic but did Hitler even know about some plane with the plans crashing?

[Baltasar]

Baltasar:
That was the main reason why Hitler was so willing to accept a new plan, Manstein's plan, in place of the original Fall Gelb.

Sorry, this is off-topic but did Hitler even know about some plane with the plans crashing?

Even if they didn't, the very possibility in itself compromised the original plan in itself.