If Japan have attacked Russia and not the Usa?

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Barkhorn
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If Japan have attacked Russia and not the Usa?

#1

Post by Barkhorn » 29 Aug 2003, 14:50

I was thinking about this possibility. If the Japanese empire has attacked the URSS in the East, could the Axis won the war? will the Usa declares war against Japan and Germany without the Pearl harbour attack?

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Hanski
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#2

Post by Hanski » 29 Aug 2003, 18:53

Japan needed to solve the oil embargo placed on her by Britain and the USA, she was quickly running out of her fuel reserves and could not make progress via the diplomatic route, so an offensive to secure supremacy on sea and to gain access to Indonesian oil was seen as the solution.

An attack against the USSR in the Far East would not have solved this problem of securing strategic resources, so Japan would not really have benefited from it, but her fuel reserves would have been used up at an accelerated rate. If the USSR had to fight a war on two fronts simultaneously, of course there would have been less reserves to send against Germany, and it might have tipped the balance on Germany's favour, but Japan would have been worse off.

Hanski
Last edited by Hanski on 29 Aug 2003, 18:55, edited 1 time in total.


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Tim Smith
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#3

Post by Tim Smith » 29 Aug 2003, 18:54

All the Japanese could realistically do against Russia is take over Kamchatka (the USSR's coastal regions in the Far East) and maybe Mongolia. They don't have the troops or the tanks to do anything else, since a large part of their army would tied up in China.

That would not be enough to knock the USSR out of the war, even with the German invasion as well.

The Siberian troops would remain in the east instead of being sent to fight the Germans. But the Siberians were not used to defend Moscow - they were used only to counterattack the Germans in the winter offensive of 1941-42. So the Russians could hold Moscow in 1941 even without the Siberians, but the Germans would be in a better position to attack Moscow again in summer 1942 if they chose.

The USA would not enter the war as a result of Japan invading Russia, but would impose a full trade embargo if they hadn't done so already. Also the US would still send Lend-Lease aid to Russia, which the Japanese would not like one bit if they were at war with Russia.

But a lot depends on whether the Japanese still attack the British and Dutch or not while attacking Russia as well. If they do the US are bound to declare war on them eventually, probably in late 1942.

I don't think that this would be enough to win the war for the Axis, although they would be better off than they were historically.

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#4

Post by CJ_Backfire » 29 Aug 2003, 20:07

sooner or later the US would have joined the war..
Roosvelt wanted it
Americans ship were having minor entangelments with german u-boots
just my thout
//Clas

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Sam H.
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#5

Post by Sam H. » 30 Aug 2003, 05:33

Historically, nearly 50% of all Lend Lease supplies were sent to Russia via the Pacific route. The best aid Japan could give Germany would be to conduct operations as it did historically, but also blockade Russian ports from US supplies. It would take relatively little investment of resources by Japan (Vladivostok was the principal port, and could be blockaded with ease) and would pay imense dividends for Germany.

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#6

Post by Alternative Scenario » 02 Sep 2003, 23:41

Tim Smith wrote:All the Japanese could realistically do against Russia is take over Kamchatka (the USSR's coastal regions in the Far East) and maybe Mongolia. They don't have the troops or the tanks to do anything else, since a large part of their army would tied up in China.
Tim

I agree the Japanese simply did not have the mobile forces to defeat the Russians in the Far East unless the whole of the Russian armoured forces were committed against the Germans.

From a Japanese point of view anything less than a decisive land victory would have left the Home Islands open to a counter attack and a Russian invasion in the same way as in 1945!

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Kralle18
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#7

Post by Kralle18 » 13 Jul 2007, 17:33

Yes and the even the Russian army was better than the Japanese in 1930's and 40's. Russian Marshal Zjukov defeats a Japanese force in Mongolia in 1939..

The battle started because a Mongolian Cavalry unit moved into disputet territory (territory dispute between russian controlled Mongolia and japanese controlled Manchukuo). It escaletet to a large battle between the Red army and the Imperial Army.. the japenese was soundly defeatet because they used very outdated tactics, especiallyt infantry tactics was obsolete..
Thats why I think that a japanese invasion of Russia would be soundly defeated by the russians even if the fought Germany at the same time...

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#8

Post by panzerkrieg » 13 Jul 2007, 18:24

roosvelt and his men were just looking for any opportunity to attack the germans in europe , foolishly hitler declared war on US making it much easier for them, otherwise roosvelt would have made up an excuse but he definately would have brought germany into war with US

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#9

Post by phylo_roadking » 13 Jul 2007, 21:51

The Russian Army that defeated the Japanese in 1939 was VERY infantry-heavy, though admittedly it did simply outfight them. However, the Japanese have ALWAYS proved to be VERY fast at changing tactics that are outmoded, and to train in new ones for given specific scenarios - like jungle warfare for Malaya and Singapore. Stalin transferred the Siberian divisions ONLY after Soviet intelligence in the Orient confirmed no such attack would be forthcoming - an Operation Fortitude style deception plan by the Japanese could have kept them in place very effectively and cheaply, or else allowed them to depart and THEN the Japanese attack! However, the Axis powers proved throughout the war to be hopeless at combined tactical and strategic planning and intelligence sharing.

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Lars
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#10

Post by Lars » 15 Jul 2007, 12:46

What if Hitler had called on the Japanese ambassor on June 23rd 1941 the day after Barbarossa had started and offered Japan all of Russia east of the Archangels-Astrakhan line if Japan attacked the USSR? Archangel-Astrakhan was the German end goal so Germany had no use for the territory east of this line anyway. Hitler would also offer that the Japanese could buy large amounts of Caucaus oil at world marked prices as soon as possible after Russia was defeated.

So, Hiter´s offer would be Siberia with all its riches, oil from Caucasus, and a solution to Japan´s strategic problem of having Russia as a hostile neighbour. As a bonus, Hitler´s offer might look as less of a huge gamble for Japan than Japan´s alternative which was war with both USA and UK.

How would Japan act?

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Tim Smith
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#11

Post by Tim Smith » 15 Jul 2007, 13:43

Doesn't matter whether Hitler offers all of Siberia to the Japanese.

Because the Japanese can't occupy that territory - they aren't strong enough to take it from the Soviets.

Not only were the Japanese too weak to conquer all of Russia - they were too weak to even conquer the province of Siberia on its own, because the bulk of the Japanese army was tied up in China.

Siberia contains a very large portion of the Soviet war industries, some built there, some evacuated from the rest of Russia in 1941. So even if Hitler occupies all of European Russia west of the Archangel-Astrakan line, Siberia would be a viable nation, economically and militarily strong, all on its own. Siberia's population would be roughly equal to that of pre-war Poland. There are tremendous reserves of raw materials, including oil, in Siberia - so it would be self-sufficient.

The 'Siberian Red Army' might be small compared to that of the pre-war USSR - but it would be equipped with modern weapons, KV-1 and T-34 tanks, and Yak fighters. The Japanese Army can't face those tanks in battle - their own tanks are pathetic death traps in comparison, and very few of their anti-tank guns can penetrate a T-34 or KV-1. And the Yak outclasses most JAAF (Japanese Army Air Force) fighters.

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#12

Post by Roddoss72 » 16 Jul 2007, 04:16

Fot this to work several thing must take place and the first thing is that Japan must withdraw from China, Offer a regret for what it did to China and offer token reparations to China.
This would convince the US and British Governments that Japan had no other intentions on China, Japan also must not attack British interests either.
Japan after withdrawal of its troops in China could provide almost 100 infantry divisions against the Soviets this equates to about 300 Soviet Rifle Divisions.
And to occupy the entire Siberian Plain is silly in the extreme, Japan only needed to occupy the Trans Siberian Railway.
The Soviets could not hold out on a concerted two front war.

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Lars
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#13

Post by Lars » 16 Jul 2007, 10:41

Roddoss72 wrote:And to occupy the entire Siberian Plain is silly in the extreme, Japan only needed to occupy the Trans Siberian Railway.
The Soviets could not hold out on a concerted two front war.

Roddoss,

This is what I mean. Hitler only needs to get the Japanese to attack. It doesn´t really matter that the Japanese can´t go more than a few hundred kilometers into Siberia at the most. What matters to Hitler is that the Japanese attack opens a second front for Russia and that the Trans-Siberian rail-road is closed down.

Tim,

If the Germans really had taken all of western Russia up to the Achangel-Astrakhan line I belive that rump-USSR would be thrown into chaos. Nothing discredits a political system and its leader than to lose a war and lose it badly. And where´s the food to feed the Siberian armaments factories workers going to come from?

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Tim Smith
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#14

Post by Tim Smith » 16 Jul 2007, 14:38

Lars wrote:Tim,

If the Germans really had taken all of western Russia up to the Achangel-Astrakhan line I belive that rump-USSR would be thrown into chaos. Nothing discredits a political system and its leader than to lose a war and lose it badly. And where´s the food to feed the Siberian armaments factories workers going to come from?
Germany had obviously lost the war by July 1944. But did the assassination of Hitler come off? No it didn't.

Six months later (January 1945) things were far worse for Germany, her last worthwhile army had been destroyed in the Battle of the Bulge. And was Hitler overthrown then? No he wasn't. He maintained a firm grip on power right up until his death in April 1945.

So, with that as an example, the loss of all European Russia doesn't necessarily mean that Stalin will be assassinated or lose power over the remnant of the USSR. That is a possibility, but by no means a certainty.

As for food, well, huge tracts of southern Siberia have extremely fertile soil. Food will be short, but not non-existent for the Urals factory workers.

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#15

Post by christopher nelson » 16 Jul 2007, 15:08

When the Soviets attacked the Japanese in 1945 the majority of tanks that it used were the older models T-26, BT5/7 and the really early verisions of the T-34. There was none of the massive equipment that was used against the germans. I founnd this out while conducting research into japanese forces in Manchuria and the soviet invasion of 1945.

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