31 August 1939: Poles preempt

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Von Schadewald
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31 August 1939: Poles preempt

#1

Post by Von Schadewald » 28 Mar 2005, 12:44

WI the Poles gain the full plans of "Case White", that the French and Rumanians aren't going to help them, and mobilise their entire 700,000 man army, destroyer flotilla, submarines, 300 fighters and 240 bombers and preempt the German attack with 1 day to spare?

The Germans are taken by surprise, with the Poles threatening for a short time Gorlitz and Cottbus, cavalry once again coming into its own. The Schleswig-Holstein is sunk, and a token bombing of Berlin is made. The Germans quickly take the counter-offensive, but a blitzkrieg advance is no longer possible, with heavy losses.

With irrefutable evidence of the hostile German intentions I think the Russians, French, Rumanians and British would now fall in with the Poles, a ceasefire is reached, and WWII is called off or delayed 5 years.
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Baltasar
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#2

Post by Baltasar » 28 Mar 2005, 14:19

Totally unplausible. The Poles knew very well that they would be a lot better of if the Allies joined the war on their side once the Reich attacked. Also Poland had a smaller population, was less industrialised and had a smaller army, navy and airforce.

Then I doubt the Poles would've inflicted that much heavier losses on the Wehrmacht, as the latter was already in their pole position to attack. While not digged in, they were massed and fully prepared for combat.


Von Schadewald
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#3

Post by Von Schadewald » 28 Mar 2005, 14:57

So if the Poles had from 1-7 days full warning of the 1 September attack, what would/should have been their most plausible course of action?

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Evzonas
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#4

Post by Evzonas » 28 Mar 2005, 15:09

Von Schadewald wrote:So if the Poles had from 1-7 days full warning of the 1 September attack, what would/should have been their most plausible course of action?
The most reasonable thing to do would be to seat down and come to a modest agreement but as hot-headed the have been they would attack Germany first and loose eitherway since Wermacht was fully mobilised to attack. More German losses for sure but I think a faster outcome also since Blitzkrieg tactics would still be used from Germans and eventually they might even get to Warsaw sooner. Since the Polish army would be in attacking positions, they would be more spread in their borders. Any counterattack from the Germans would results in even more stretched lines of supply etc and innevitably Poles would loose.

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Baltasar
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#5

Post by Baltasar » 28 Mar 2005, 15:19

Von Schadewald wrote:So if the Poles had from 1-7 days full warning of the 1 September attack, what would/should have been their most plausible course of action?
Depends on how they got the warning and what information they got.

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Kurt_Steiner
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#6

Post by Kurt_Steiner » 28 Mar 2005, 18:36

1-7 days before 1 September 1939, most of the Wehrmacht would be ready to attack. Perhaps the Poles would manage to do some damage, but, in the long run, they would be smashed with a single doubt.

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Miha Grcar
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#7

Post by Miha Grcar » 28 Mar 2005, 20:23

Poland would be defeated in one way or another, it could perhaps just buy some time, but if the western allies wouldn't do anything against Germany then defeat would follow in one way or another. One of their mistekes was also probably that they tried to cover all of their borders and not trying to exchange land for time or retreat to better defensive positions which they could (according to Manstein). But the result remains the same, with no western intervention Poland is lost.

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Nibelung / Miha

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Baltasar
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#8

Post by Baltasar » 28 Mar 2005, 20:55

If I remember correctly, the western part of Poland was wealthier with more industries. Loosing this part would undoubtly harm their effort to fight the war for a longer time. The original plan was to defend on the borders and make a fighting retreat further east, thereby shortening the frontline and thus making a breakthrough more unlikely.
So it seem obvious to me, that the Poles fully knew they couldn't take on Germany all by themselves, thus making a preemtive strike impossible.

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Miha Grcar
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#9

Post by Miha Grcar » 28 Mar 2005, 21:04

The loss of industrial parts of Poland would harm only a long lasting war effort, which wasn't even possible due to the size of the country itself.

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Nibelung / Miha

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Evzonas
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#10

Post by Evzonas » 28 Mar 2005, 21:13

Woops.... just read this :

The Polish government had for a long time been aware and held confirmed intelligence reports of the German armies gradual build up of forces behind it`s borders.They had also witnessed daily,the virulent propaganda campaign from Germany designed to show Poland as an `aggressor` to the Nazi state.These combined warnings,along with Adolph Hitler's stated `expansion` plans were however met with an enforced political anti-antagonistic defensive posture in Poland and indeed throughout Europe.

Although as a gesture toward defence,Poland's forces were dispersed thinly (due to vast borders) to meet any invasion that might occur from the West and also the pact with Britain and France for `immediate` military aid was deemed enough to deter an attack. In fact the wish to appease Hitler was so great that the General Mobilisation order for the Polish Armed forces was only announced on August 28th a mere three days before the actual outbreak of war.But due to political pressure from France and Britain even this was cancelled so as not to `provoke` Germany into a War that the allies still felt sure could be avoided.

The forces of Poland were reflective of a predominantly agricultural economy and was in the main, supplied with weapons and equipment bought cheaply from other countries who now deemed them obsolete.However Poland had slowly been re-equipping with modern armour (mainly armoured cars,tankettes and light tanks) and also aeroplanes,but still,even in the age of the machine-gun Poland used out-dated tactics which relied heavily on cavalry and horses for mobility and offensive military action.

The Russian border remained un-guarded by military force as the differences between Fascism and communism were deemed so great that a pact of hostility toward Poland from both of these side was unthinkable (Fascist and communist forces had only just finished a bitter struggle on the civil war battlefields of Spain,to which Hitler and Stalin had both sent troops and support for their respective ideologies)so all of Poland's army faced the borders of Germany and her allies.

Polish army group Pomoroze was placed in the corridor to the coast separating Nazi Germany from Nazi East Prussia.The other army groups,Poznan,Lodz,Cracow,Carpathian,Modlin(frontier guards)and Narew,were paced in the suspected main areas of attack,the main objective being a holding action(until France and Britain could attack in aid of Poland)and then if needed a gradual fighting withdrawal into the Polish interior with defence of the many river crossings of Poland aiding to slow the attackers advance.

Although outnumbered two to one and and experiencing the new Blitzkrieg (lightening war) tactics,then an attack from the un-defended rear by the Soviet Union,the strategy worked in so far as to wear down the attacking German military machine(wear and tear on equipment and losses) to such an extent that Germany could not wage an immediate strike against France and had to enter into the `Phoney` war phase before they could strike again.

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Last edited by Evzonas on 28 Mar 2005, 21:20, edited 1 time in total.

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Miha Grcar
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#11

Post by Miha Grcar » 28 Mar 2005, 21:19

Evzonas, I agree on the two front disaster, but how could Poland possibly have taken such a defence with such a lack of mobile forces and airforce?

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Nibelung / Miha

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Evzonas
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#12

Post by Evzonas » 28 Mar 2005, 21:27

Nibelung wrote:Evzonas, I agree on the two front disaster, but how could Poland possibly have taken such a defence with such a lack of mobile forces and airforce?

best,
Nibelung / Miha
Nibelung... As I see it after a very little indeed research and memory refreshmement, Polish actually knew what was going to happen... their military was quite nicely dispatched although not in a way to halt or delay a Blitzkrieg as Germans had it in mind. The mere fact that their Northern border was also under threat made defending their country a nightmare.

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Miha Grcar
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#13

Post by Miha Grcar » 28 Mar 2005, 21:38

As I remember the Poznan Army group could have been used better elsewhere, because the Blitzkrieg didn't even go through it's sector. It is quite possible that they had a nightmare of defence, but still, why did they plan to defend the borders if the waterways behind their positions would prove much better in defence?

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Nibelung / Miha

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Evzonas
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#14

Post by Evzonas » 28 Mar 2005, 21:55

Nibelung wrote:As I remember the Poznan Army group could have been used better elsewhere, because the Blitzkrieg didn't even go through it's sector. It is quite possible that they had a nightmare of defence, but still, why did they plan to defend the borders if the waterways behind their positions would prove much better in defence?

best,
Nibelung / Miha
That is indeed a good question. I think it has to do with the fact that they expected a typical static war as in WWI and not the Armagedon of Blitzkrieg fallen in their head. Ofcourse, I am now to ask why didn't they at least build a fortification like Maginaut in France or Ruppel in Greece. Can it be the bad economical situation or the thought (I read this somewhere so I repeat it here) that they thought they could really beat the Germans????

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#15

Post by Molobo » 28 Mar 2005, 21:57

but still, why did they plan to defend the borders if the waterways behind their positions would prove much better in defence?
Becaue the polish areas left would be occupied by Germany-Gdansk, Pomorze(Pomerania) and Greater Poland.
For Germans that would be victory and they would gain everything they wanted.
Last edited by Molobo on 28 Mar 2005, 21:59, edited 1 time in total.

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