Polish claims on Wilno/Vilnius

[Halibutt]

Great, extensive and very informative posts. Thank you.

[Piotr Kapuscinski]

Thank you Halibutt!

And below some data from 2003 "Ethnic Groups and Population Changes in Twentieth-Century Central-Eastern Europe" by Piotr Eberhardt. After WW2 expelled Poles were replaced mostly by Russian (as well as Ukrainian/Belarusian/Lithuanian, but to a lesser extent) immigrants:

Belarus_Changes.png (78.51 KiB) Viewed 3217 times

Ukraine_Changes.png (100.77 KiB) Viewed 3217 times

Lithuania 1959.png (43.33 KiB) Viewed 3217 times

[henryk]

There is an typo in the number of Russians in 1959 Ukraine. It should read 7,090,813
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians_in_Ukraine

[michael mills]

Are there any more recent censuses in Lithuania and Belarus showing ethnic groups?

[Piotr Kapuscinski]

Are there any more recent censuses in Lithuania and Belarus showing ethnic groups?

In Belarus according to Polish scholars the only - more or less - credible post-WW2 census was that of 1959.

After 1959 authorities realized how numerous still was the Polish minority, and started to falsify census figures.

Lithuanian censuses are more credible, recently they started to show a decline in Polish population but total pop. is declining as well.

Polish population in Lithuania is declining a bit faster than total pop., perhaps more due to emigration rather than assimilation.

Lithuanian authorities are trying various gerrymandering methods to diminish the political influence of Polish minority (let's remember that for example one of Lithuania's 12 Members of the European Parliament is Polish - W. Tomaszewski of the Electoral Action of Poles).

[henryk]

Welcome back, michael mills.

[Piotr Kapuscinski]

And thank you Henryk for spotting that typo in the number of Russians.

Obviously it was supposed to be 7,091,300 Russians in 1959 Ukraine.

[michael mills]

Bear in mind that it is sometimes difficult to tell the difference between Poles and Lithuanians, or between Poles and Belarusians.

Since Poles and Lithuanians both adhere to Catholic Church, the only way of telling them apart is by native language. But what about persons who are bilingual in Polish and Lithuanian? There was historically a large number of such persons in the Polish-Lithuanian borderlands, for example in the Vilnius area.

That created a problem of classification in the census taken by the German occupiers in 1916. There is an anecdote about a peasant who, asked what his nationality was based on his religion and native language, replied that he was Catholic and spoke both Polish and Lithuanian, therefore he was simultaneously a Pole and a Lithuanian.

In the case of Poles and Belarusians, there is also a religious distinction, Poles being Catholic and most Belarusians Orthodox. But how are Catholic Belarusian-speakers to be classified? And what about persons bilingual in Polish and Belarusian? Presumably an Orthodox bilingual would be classified as Belarusian, whereas a Catholic bilingual would be classified as Polish.

[Piotr Kapuscinski]

Here the Polish census of December 1919 (in North-Eastern Borderlands) can be found (and I place the introduction in English inline):

http://dziemiela.com/personal/documents ... i_1919.pdf

[Piotr Kapuscinski]

German censuses in the city of Vilnius 1915 - 1917:

http://www.kpbc.ukw.edu.pl/dlibra/plain ... t?id=37961

German census of 1916 in Lithuania - results for Polish and Lithuanian nationalities (map):

Lengyelek = Poles
Litvanok = Lithuanians
Lengyel-litvan etnikai hatar = Polish-Lithuanian ethnic boundary

Click this link to see the map in full size: http://forum.axishistory.com/download/f ... &mode=view

[Sid Guttridge]

From memory, my understanding was that, while the city was predominantly Polish and Jewish, the surrounding rural areas were predominantly Lithuanian.

If so, it is possible that a majority of the district's population was Polish, but a majority of its land area was Lithuanian.

Cheers,

Sid.

[Piotr Kapuscinski]

the surrounding rural areas were predominantly Lithuanian.

Nope - check my posts on page 7: http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 0#p1924661

The surrounding rural areas were predominantly inhabited by Polish-speakers and Roman Catholic Belarusian-speakers.

The only argument is whether they were Polish or Belarusian. Russian censuses counted them as "Russians". Imperial Russia counted Belarusians (White Russians) and Ukrainians (Little Russians) - together with Great Russians (Russians proper) - as sub-groups of "Russians".

No census will show you that the area was Lithuanian - all censuses showed the area around Vilna as either "Russian" or Polish.

But Slavic-speaking Roman Catholics in this region identify as ethnic Poles even if they speak Belarusian rather than Polish.

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Below a few maps showing languages in Poland in 1931, in numbers of speakers (each dot represents 1,000 people).

Note that population density in southern regions was much bigger than in northern (hence more dots of all kinds in the south):

Polish-speakers:



Eastern minority languages:



And here extent of each of East Slavic minority languages:

[Piotr Kapuscinski]

but a majority of its land area was Lithuanian.

Here are two maps by Polish scholar Piotr Eberhardt showing land areas which were majority Polish:

The second map is actually based on Lithuanian sources, so the real extent of Polish area before 1921 could be even greater:

1) In year 1959 (according to official Soviet census data):



2) "A" + "B" + "C" = majority Polish land area before 1921:



Note that Belarusian censuses after 1959 are falsified - from 1959 to 1999 Polish area shrank on paper only.

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Lithuanian gerrymandering in areas with ethnic Polish majority, since the 1990s:



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Religions in 1931 in what is now part of Belarus and Lithuania (except for Kamin-Kashyrskyi which is in Ukraine):



Comparison of percent of Roman Catholics and percent of Poles by county (except for Kamin-Kashyrskyi) in 1931:

http://forum.axishistory.com/download/f ... &id=342191

[Sid Guttridge]

Hi Peter,

I accept your proposition.

With regard to dots on maps: Some Romanians claimed that they lost so much of Ardeal/Transilvania at the German/Italian Arbitration/Diktat of Vienna because the Hungarians cunningly presented the arbitrators with a map with dots representing population in which the Hungarians were shown in a bright colour and the Romanians in a dull one. This supposedly fooled the arbitrators into believing there were more Hungarians than was the case.

Cheers,

Sid.

[Piotr Kapuscinski]

At Trianon in 1920 Hungary lost a lot of land without any plebiscites. That included also such lands which had Hungarian-speaking majority - as well as perhaps many areas where people who didn't speak Hungarian were still willing to live in Hungary rather than in Romania, etc.

Northern Transylvania given to Hungary in 1940 was anyway retaken by Romania after WW2, without a referendum.

Blue line as shown here could be an alternative border of Hungary (black line represents the real border):



And this map indicates that Hungarian, German and other Non-Romanian speakers were almost 1/2 of the population in Transylvania - if most of Non-Romanians and some Romanians were willing to be citizens of Hungary, Hungary could win a hypothetical plebiscite there: