If Poland had become Germany's ally rather than its enemy

Discussions on all aspects of Poland during the Second Polish Republic and the Second World War. Hosted by Piotr Kapuscinski.
Lokanski
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Re: If Poland had become Germany's ally rather than its enem

#121

Post by Lokanski » 04 Oct 2012, 14:12

michael mills wrote:There was never any such decision.
There was.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_crime ... hnic_Poles
On March 15, 1940, Himmler stated All Polish specialists will be exploited in our military-industrial complex. Later, all Poles will disappear from this world. It is imperative that the great German nation considers the elimination of all Polish people as its chief task.
Poland's Holocaust: Ethnic Strife, Collaboration with Occupying Forces and Genocide in the Second Republic, 1918-1947 Tadeusz Piotrowski

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Government
In March 1941 Hans Frank informed his subordinates that Hitler had made the decision to "turn this region into a purely German area within 15–20 years." He explained that "Where 12 million Poles now live, is to be populated by 4 to 5 million Germans. The Generalgouvernement must become as German as the Rhineland.


It is worth noting that mr. Mills has contradicted himself several times-for instance when he claimed first that Polish government in 1939 wanted border at Oder with Germany, but later changed his claim that this was not the case and that it was Polish opposition that wanted that(this is also a false claim, as main opposition didn't have such claims but fringe groups).
It is also worth noting that mr. Mills has decided to ignore examples of what would happen to "allies" as Latvia or Estonia per German plans who wanted them to be depopulated and Germanized. Amusingly mr. Mills claimed them to be a role-model for Polish cooperation.
Nor did mr. Mills responded to evidence regarding his claim that non-resistence to Germany would result in better treatment. As we know Jewish population seldom resisted Nazis by force, and was exterminated in around 90% in various ways including well known gas chambers, where Jewsh-old, child, women or male, were put disregarding their political affiliation or stance.

Thus above contradictions and ignoring examples what happened to Nazi "allies" or people who didn't resist them don't put much strength behind mr Mills argumentation in my view.

Moreover his claim that Poland was anti-Germany or hostile to Germany isn't based on any real fact, it was after all Germany that demanded territory from Poland, not the other way around.
t would have been difficult for Britain and France to declare war on Germany in response,
They wouldn't have to, since Hitler was quite keen on declaring war against France on his own.

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Re: If Poland had become Germany's ally rather than its enem

#122

Post by wm » 04 Oct 2012, 22:51

michael mills wrote:The Sanacja regime was very weak, and was unable to resist the pressure comong from the internal anti-German opposition. It did not have the prestige and authority that Pildsudski had had.
Not quite, they pressured themselves.
The legitimacy of the Sanacja Government rested solely on their claims that they had won the freedom for Poland and were defenders of the Polish independence. The opposition was claiming that they were better one, but even in absence of the opposition any yielding to Hitler's demands meant contesting their own legitimacy to power. A very unpolitical thing to do...
This is the first obstacle to any deal with Hitler.
The second was the fact that Rydz-Śmigły didn't want any deal with Hitler and he meant it. As he was suffering from the genius complex at that time I see no possibility to talk him out of his decision.
The third obstacle would be the overestimation of the Polish Army and its Allies capabilities by the Polish Government.
The next was the fact that the Allies had military and economical supremacy over Germany so why bother with any pacts with it.
Another - that in the Polish culture, after so many uprising, any pacting with an enemy was branded treason. And imperialism and naked aggression, after so many years of slavery, was abhorred. Maybe nothing but I can quite easily imagine entire Polish Divisions defecting to the Soviets as the result of this upbringing.
The Soviets would have had to work hard to push Poland into Hiter's embrace, at the level of the Hitler's successful efforts to push Poland into Stalin's arms. But Stalin was sufficiently cautious and hyenish in his actions to not to make such a mistake.

Really, the Polish-German pact would require so many changes in the OTL that it would be easier to postulate that Poland should have invested serious money in nuclear research in the twenties or that the Polish CIA have assassinated Hitler when he was Mr Nobody.

We have to dispose of the Polish opposition, and Rydz-Śmigły and a few of his friends, next a massive and successful propaganda campaign would be required, and a mad dictator bent on acquiring more land at all cost because the map looks better then. The supply of madmen was sufficient at that time, but credible dictators were unavailable, even Rydz-Śmigły was not a statesman, but merely a promoted far above his level of competence a commander of an infantry division.

But as the thread assumes that Poland had become German ally, it is worth to mention that there would be no escape from this alliance. For the Soviets Poland was the road to Germany, so the bulk of German forces would be always there making any Polish defection to the Allies impossibility. And in the case of a Polish-German victory there is a strong probability that the US would not intervene in Europe because victory would be too costly. Then for the Poles would be the time to take their whips and take a trip to the Ural Mountains.
And this is another reason to reject Hitler's demands...


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Re: If Poland had become Germany's ally rather than its enem

#123

Post by wm » 04 Oct 2012, 23:22

michael mills wrote:Beck in particular had no desire to confront Germany, as is shown by his reaction to the written messages of congratulation he received from the opposition for his sabre-rattling anti-German speech on 5 May 1939; according to eyewitness accounts, he angrily threw the messages into the wastepaper-basket. The most probable reason for his angry reaction is that he knew that he had been pushed into taking an anti-German position that he did not want to take, and which he knew would end disastrously for Poland.
This interpretation assumes that he cared about the opinions of the opposition, Rydz-Śmigły was the main sabre-rattler and he couldn't throw him into the wastepaper-basket.
It is equally probable that he wasn't interested in that boring lecture because he was hurrying up to the toilet. :)
michael mills wrote:If Germany had intervened in Poland on the side of the legitimate government against anti-German rebels, it would have been difficult for Britain and France to declare war on Germany in response, since Germany would not have offended against international law.
There was a strong taboo present in the Polish culture against bringing foreigners into local affairs it would mean instant political death for a sufficiently stupid side. The Condor Legion fighting at the Sanacja side was impossibility.

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Re: If Poland had become Germany's ally rather than its enem

#124

Post by michael mills » 05 Oct 2012, 02:02

The second was the fact that Rydz-Śmigły didn't want any deal with Hitler and he meant it. As he was suffering from the genius complex at that time I see no possibility to talk him out of his decision.
The third obstacle would be the overestimation of the Polish Army and its Allies capabilities by the Polish Government.
I agree.
The next was the fact that the Allies had military and economical supremacy over Germany so why bother with any pacts with it.
Britain and France combined were certainly stronger than Germany, and were assured of victory over Germany in a long war of attrition, as had been shown in 1918.

But the crucial question was whether Britain and France were willing to use that greater strength immediately to save Poland from Germany, in the case where Poland deliberately antagonised Germany. The historical record shows that they were not; rather, they planned to hunker down behind the Maginot Line, in the hope that the German army would be bogged down in Poland for several months and would then come into conflict with the Red Army on Poland's eastern border, leaving Britain and France free to wage an eventually successful economic war gainst Germany.

The Polish Government gambled that, if it provoked Germany, the British and French armed forces would rush to its aid. It lost its gamble and Poland was crushed and devastated. To be sure the German conquerors were eventually defeated and pushed out, but not by Britain and France, rather by an alternative conqueror.
The Soviets would have had to work hard to push Poland into Hitler's embrace, at the level of the Hitler's successful efforts to push Poland into Stalin's arms. But Stalin was sufficiently cautious and hyenish in his actions to not to make such a mistake.
In the negotiations with Britain and France in the summer of 1939 on the formation of an anti-German alliance, Stalin insisted on the right of the Red Army to march into Polish territory in order to fight the German forces. That was enough to scare the Poles into refusing adamantly to enter into any alliance including the Soviet Union.
There was a strong taboo present in the Polish culture against bringing foreigners into local affairs it would mean instant political death for a sufficiently stupid side.
The historical record shows that the Polish Government installed in Lublin by Stalin in July 1944 did not suffer instant political death, despite that "strong taboo". In fact, it survived to rule Poland for the next 45 years.

The reason for its survival, despite having been imposed by foreigners, is that the power of the Soviet Army was sufficient to overcome any Polish "taboo" and ensure that its Polish puppets remained in power and defeated any opposition.

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Re: If Poland had become Germany's ally rather than its enem

#125

Post by RG » 05 Oct 2012, 09:44

wm wrote:
michael mills wrote:Beck in particular had no desire to confront Germany, as is shown by his reaction to the written messages of congratulation he received from the opposition for his sabre-rattling anti-German speech on 5 May 1939; according to eyewitness accounts, he angrily threw the messages into the wastepaper-basket. The most probable reason for his angry reaction is that he knew that he had been pushed into taking an anti-German position that he did not want to take, and which he knew would end disastrously for Poland.
This interpretation assumes that he cared about the opinions of the opposition, Rydz-Śmigły was the main sabre-rattler and he couldn't throw him into the wastepaper-basket.
It is equally probable that he wasn't interested in that boring lecture because he was hurrying up to the toilet. :)
Indeed, he was annoyed to be pushed to take into anti-german position, however MM interpretation is wrong. The triggering factor was not anti-german oposition but aggresive actions of Germany. This speech of 5th May was end of Polish policy of balance between Germany and SU. German agression made it impossible to keep it any longer and this was a reason of Beck's irritation.

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Re: If Poland had become Germany's ally rather than its enem

#126

Post by wm » 05 Oct 2012, 11:28

michael mills wrote:But the crucial question was whether Britain and France were willing to use that greater strength immediately to save Poland from Germany, in the case where Poland deliberately antagonised Germany. The historical record shows that they were not; rather, they planned to hunker down behind the Maginot Line, in the hope that the German army would be bogged down in Poland for several months and would then come into conflict with the Red Army on Poland's eastern border, leaving Britain and France free to wage an eventually successful economic war gainst Germany.
Well, even Stalin wasn't sufficiently treacherous to renegade on a Pact signed a few days before so it is hard to imagine that they counted on that.
As far as I know France didn't have the capability to wage successful war in such short notice, they needed months and Poland didn't provide them.
michael mills wrote:The Polish Government gambled that, if it provoked Germany, the British and French armed forces would rush to its aid. It lost its gamble and Poland was crushed and devastated. To be sure the German conquerors were eventually defeated and pushed out, but not by Britain and France, rather by an alternative conqueror.
Gambling assumes knowledge of own relatively weak position against the other player. They didn't know that so it wasn't gambling.
Had they known they should have removed the deficiencies, devise a better defense, improve inter-Allied cooperation that kind of stuff. The knowledge alone wouldn't be a reason to back down.

michael mills wrote:In the negotiations with Britain and France in the summer of 1939 on the formation of an anti-German alliance, Stalin insisted on the right of the Red Army to march into Polish territory in order to fight the German forces. That was enough to scare the Poles into refusing adamantly to enter into any alliance including the Soviet Union.

That was the correct reaction. A successful anti-Hitlerite defense didn't require the Red Army presence in Poland.
michael mills wrote:The historical record shows that the Polish Government installed in Lublin by Stalin in July 1944 did not suffer instant political death, despite that "strong taboo". In fact, it survived to rule Poland for the next 45 years.
Well, the Red Army was liberating Poland after all.
And Hitler was so good at convincing the Poles that Stalin was worth love despite his many failings that he deserved a few Hero of the Soviet Union awards himself. And communism and all the humanistic values associated with it were attractive.
But mainly because after the "liberation" there were no political party left to take advantage of the taboo.
michael mills wrote:The reason for its survival, despite having been imposed by foreigners, is that the power of the Soviet Army was sufficient to overcome any Polish "taboo" and ensure that its Polish puppets remained in power and defeated any opposition.
Exactly :)

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Re: If Poland had become Germany's ally rather than its enem

#127

Post by Sid Guttridge » 05 Oct 2012, 12:33

Hi Michael,

You write "The historical fact is that everything suffered by the Polish people during the Second World War was the result of the disastrous decision of the Polish Government to adopt a postion of hostility toward Germany....."

Er, no.The suffering of the Polish people during WWII was the result of decisions made by Nazi Germany after August 1939.

Germany could, if it so chose, have been conciliatory towards the Poles after their conquest. But it was not.

Germany didn't have to collude in the occupation of half the Polish state by the USSR.

Germany didn't have to entirely eliminate the Polish state and refuse to recognize any form of Polish national entity - a unique position not shared by any other occupied population.

Germany didn't have to displace two million Poles, or plan the complete removal of the entire people.

Germany didn't have to exterminate almost every last Polish Jew.

Hitler's actual deeds after he had gained absolute power over Poland in 1939-44 are a far more reliable guide to his true intentions towards the Poles than any mere words he may have uttered or written earlier, before he had them in his clutches.

To mix metaphors, fine words butter no parsnips and the proof of the pudding is in the eating.

Cheers,

Sid.

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Re: If Poland had become Germany's ally rather than its enem

#128

Post by Lokanski » 05 Oct 2012, 15:11

michael mills wrote: The Czechs surrendered to Germany, and as a result did not suffer anywhere near as much as the Polish people. The Finns, Hungarians, Romanians, Bulgarians and Croatians allied themselves with Germany, and did not suffer anything at German hands. Neither did the Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heydrich
Upon his appointment, Heydrich told his aides "[w]e will Germanize the Czech vermin."[63](...)

Despite public displays of goodwill towards the populace, privately Heydrich left no illusions as to his eventual goal: "This entire area will one day be definitely German, and the Czechs have nothing to expect here". Eventually up to two-thirds of Czechs were to be either be removed to regions of Russia or exterminated after Nazi Germany won the war. Bohemia and Moravia were to be annexed directly into the German Reich
Nazi depopulation plans against Latvians, Estonians and Lithuanians who allied with Nazi Germany were already shown, and of course ignored by mr. Mills.
Just as the fact that the population that didn't resist in general-Jews, were exterminated in 90% including use of gas chambers, man, women, child alike.

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Re: If Poland had become Germany's ally rather than its enem

#129

Post by michael mills » 06 Oct 2012, 02:19

Indeed, he was annoyed to be pushed to take into anti-german position, however MM interpretation is wrong. The triggering factor was not anti-german oposition but aggresive actions of Germany. This speech of 5th May was end of Polish policy of balance between Germany and SU. German agression made it impossible to keep it any longer and this was a reason of Beck's irritation.
What German aggression?

As of May 1939 there had been no German aggression against Poland whatever.

In fact, Poland had been the first to threaten war against Germany over Danzig, on 24 March, after it had received assurances of British support.

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Re: If Poland had become Germany's ally rather than its enem

#130

Post by michael mills » 06 Oct 2012, 02:31

And communism and all the humanistic values associated with it were attractive.
But mainly because after the "liberation" there were no political party left to take advantage of the taboo.
I doubt that by 1945 any sensible person believed in the "humanistic values" of Communism. Two decades of the actual practice of Communism in the Soviet Union and in the territories occupied by it just before the outbreak of war had shown any such "human istic values" to be a total sham.

And in 1945 there were political parties in Poland other than the Communist Party, eg the Socialists and the Peasants Party. The Polish Government created by Stalin included representatives of those other parties, and the head of the Government-in-Exile in London, Mikolajczyk, retunred to Poland to participate in the Coomunist-led government.

However, the Communists soon eliminated the remnants of non-Communist parties that refused to combine with it, and Mikolajczyk was forced to flee for his life.

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Re: If Poland had become Germany's ally rather than its enem

#131

Post by Lokanski » 06 Oct 2012, 10:42

the Baltic States were overrun by a horde of Slavic proletarians, mainly Russians and Ukrainians with a low level of culture.
since the ethnic Latvians would have been living alongside cultured Germans rather than alcoholic Slavic proletarians.
Reported for racist attacks.


Also a rather long racist elaborate, but one that misses completely the point.
If Himmler's plan had gone ahead, and the present populations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania included a large segment of industrious, economically and culturally advanced Germans,
There would be no Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania today, these areas would be part of the Reich as its provinces, and the population of Lithuanians, Estonians and Latvians would be reduced by half in case of Latvians and Estonians and 80% in case of Lithuanians.

If mr. Mills sees this future a role-model of Poland being an "ally" of Germany than no doubt it would be worse fate than what happened to Poland in our world.
michael mills wrote:
As of May 1939 there had been no German aggression against Poland whatever.
As of May 1939 Germans had started preparing a list of Poles to be murdered and put in concentration camps after Invasion of Poland would start.
http://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonderfahndungsbuch_Polen
That hardly represented a disbenefit to the Latvian and Lithuanian peoples
Again missing the point? You claimed less resistance meant less oppression from Nazi Germany-the Jews offered little resistance yet Jews were mass exterminated in gas chambers-disproving your point.
Otto Fuchs wrote: But how was the pact contracted between Hitler and Pilsudski meant from Pilsudski's side?? Why did he sign it?
It was signed just as Soviet pact between Pilsudski and Stalin.
Yes, the Poles heavily underrated the Germans and heavily overrated themselves, as they always do.
How so? Polish strategy was to make sure that any enemy state will be defeated by alliance of the most powerful countries in existence at the time. And indeed Nazi Germany was destroyed completely, lost 1/3 of its territory to Poland, with vital resources and historical cities. Who underrated whom and who overrated themselves then>
Well, here we come somewhat nearer to the point. If Poland is an enemy or an ally of Germany doesn't matter! :D Anyway they don't like Germany. So - what you want to do with Germany? Destroy it? Erase it from the earth? Put it into chains forever? Exploit it? Live on it?? As you do now?
You forget that it was Nazi Germany, and indeed Nazi Germany led by its racist ideology was unable to have "allies". Only the Germans were "master race" and all others were to be either servants,slaves or exterminated. And as we know Nazi Germany was defeated. I don't recall Poles living from any money from Nazi Germany

If you, once and for all, delete Germany from the surface of this earth, then--alas!--you can not get any money from it anymore. :(
Nazi Germany neither exists anymore nor Poles get any money from it.

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Re: If Poland had become Germany's ally rather than its enem

#132

Post by wm » 06 Oct 2012, 11:38

michael mills wrote:If Himmler's plan had gone ahead, and the present populations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania included a large segment of industrious, economically and culturally advanced Germans, then those countries would be far better off than they actually are.
And what would have been the reason for IECA Germans migrations to those backward Baltic states except maybe because Himmler with a Parabellum in his hand was politely urging them to do so? Are the IECA Americans migrating in droves to Mississippi right now? Or the IECA Russian to Siberia?
Was a deportation to the East even remotely attractive for an IECA German from Berlin? An IECA German proved his resourcefulness by avoiding the Eastern betterment action completely, only the non-resourceful losers had the bad luck to be sent there.
michael mills wrote:Instead, as a result of the German defeat, the Baltic States were overrun by a horde of Slavic proletarians, mainly Russians and Ukrainians with a low level of culture. Today, just over one-third of the population of Estonia and Latvia consists of a Slavic proletarian underclass that creates a huge social problem for those countries.
You are mistaking the long lasting results of communism with proletarian and peasants cultures, which generally were friendly and on their own way sophisticated. The pre-revolution workers and peasants were industrious, thanks to the Revolution they became much less so.
michael mills wrote: If German rule in Latvia had continued, it could not have led to a worse demographic situation, and indeed that situation would have been immeasurably better, since the ethnic Latvians would have been living alongside cultured Germans rather than alcoholic Slavic proletarians.
The Germans living in the Eastern Territories during the WWII were downing booze as there were no tomorrow. The wide spread German bribery culture there was fueled by booze, food and money. I would say in this order.
In fact the booze-guzzling Germans and alcoholic Slavic proletarians were the result of the same social phenomenon - the destruction of social norms after forced migration.

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Re: If Poland had become Germany's ally rather than its enem

#133

Post by wm » 06 Oct 2012, 12:33

Yes, the Poles heavily underrated the Germans and heavily overrated themselves, as they always do.

Well it was a mistake but people tend to make this kind of mistake.
It seems the Germans not only were making it constantly (the French would not fight, Great Britain would sue for peace, the USSR would crumble instantly) but improved upon it by surrendering the initiative and the very fate of Germany to the enemy at every turn.
Bravery of the German soldiers, the resourcefulness of their leaders were of no importance, everything depended on the "would not fight", "would sue for peace", "would crumble"...

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Re: If Poland had become Germany's ally rather than its enem

#134

Post by michael mills » 06 Oct 2012, 14:36

Was a deportation to the East even remotely attractive for an IECA German from Berlin? An IECA German proved his resourcefulness by avoiding the Eastern betterment action completely, only the non-resourceful losers had the bad luck to be sent there.
Quite probably few Reich Germans would have wanted to settle in the Baltic States. Perhaps some of the original Baltic Germans would have elected to go back there.

But as with all Himmler's schemes for eastern settlement, the settlers would have been drawn primarily from ethnic Germans already settled in Eastern Europe.

And that of course is why Himmler's Generalplan-Ost was purely a pipedream, no matter how much ideologically-driven people like Lokanski want to believe in its reality. The total number of ethnic Germans in East Europe was finite, so the transport of ethnic Germans from locality X to locality Y would increase the German population in locality Y, but cause an equal decrease in locality X.

All of Himmler's settlement schemes in East Europe only resulted in a reshuffling of the ethnic German population already in the area, eg moving them from Bessarabia to Poland, without actually increasing that population.

To be sure, the Generalplan-Ost did call for the movement of surplus Reich German population to settlement areas in the East, but if one reads between the lines of the reports to Himmler from the experts in the RKFdV, one can see that they are subtly telling him that no such surplus population existed. To be sure, the reports all say that large numbers of Reich Germans will be available for settlement in the East - but only if post-war economic growth in the German homeland does not soak up all the available labour force there, and indeed suck in non-German labour from outside Germany.

Since the expectation was that there would be a huge post-war economic boom, the experts were in effect telling Himmler that no Reich Germans would be available for settlement in the East since they would all be employed in the homeland. And that is what happened in historical reality; the post-war boom in West Germany rapidly absorbed all the 10 million or so Germans expelled there from the East, and required even more "guest workers".

Thus, the objective reality is that if Germany had not been defeated, few Germans would have settled in the Baltic States, and few of the native Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians would have been expelled since they would have been needed as a labour force for the large-scale economic bloc that Germany intended to create.

What annoyed me about Lokanski is that he got all hot under the collar about the hypothetical and unrealistic situation of large numbers of Germans being settled in the Baltic States, but ignored the fact that the real wrong that was done to the Baltic peoples in historical fact was that under post-war Soviet rule they were swamped by huge numbers of Slavs with a low level of culture, who still constitute a major social and political problem despite the fact that a considerable number have gone back to Russia or Ukraine. He also ignored the historical fact that the cause of about 25% of ethnic Latvians living outside Latvia was Soviet action, not German.

By the way, in response to your comment that "only the non-resourceful losers had the bad luck to be sent [to the East]", I recommend you read this book:


"Women and the Nazi East : Agents and Witnesses of Germanization" by Elizabeth Harvey (New Haven : Yale University Press, c2003).

That book describes the experiences of the young Reich German women, members of the BDM and the NS-Frauenschaft, who were sent to the East to assist the ethnic Germans who were being resettled in Poland, mainly as teachers, child-minders and domestic advisers. It shows that many of them, perhaps most, were highly idealistic and saw themselves as contributing to the great task of creating the "German East".

Of course, it may be that women in general are more idealistic than men, and less inclined to hit the booze and become corrupt, and in fact that is what the book suggests. In any case, I encourage you to read it; I found it absolutely fascinating.

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Re: If Poland had become Germany's ally rather than its enem

#135

Post by David Thompson » 06 Oct 2012, 15:07

A post from michael Mills, and another by Otto Fuchs, were removed pursuant to the forum rules regarding ethnic and national insults.

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