How would Poland have been partitioned if the Soviet Union would've gotten the Curzon Line as its border in 1920?

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How would Poland have been partitioned if the Soviet Union would've gotten the Curzon Line as its border in 1920?

#1

Post by Futurist » 24 Apr 2019, 04:49

Had the Soviet Union got the Curzon Line as its western border in 1920, how would the Nazis and Soviets have partitioned Poland two decades later if the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact would have still been signed in this scenario?

For the record, my own guess is that Germany's eastern border after a Nazi invasion of Poland in this scenario would have closely followed Prussia's eastern border between 1795 and 1806:

Image

Meanwhile, I suspect that the Soviet Union would have gotten everything to the east of this border.

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Re: How would Poland have been partitioned if the Soviet Union would've gotten the Curzon Line as its border in 1920?

#2

Post by wm » 25 Apr 2019, 19:20

Stalin had more serious goals in mind than gaining a few pieces of poorly developed land of Eastern Poland.
I suppose he would demand something else, along the lines of German-Soviet Axis talks in October and November 1940.


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Re: How would Poland have been partitioned if the Soviet Union would've gotten the Curzon Line as its border in 1920?

#3

Post by Futurist » 25 Apr 2019, 20:16

wm wrote:
25 Apr 2019, 19:20
Stalin had more serious goals in mind than gaining a few pieces of poorly developed land of Eastern Poland.
I suppose he would demand something else, along the lines of German-Soviet Axis talks in October and November 1940.
What did Stalin demand in these talks?

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Re: How would Poland have been partitioned if the Soviet Union would've gotten the Curzon Line as its border in 1920?

#4

Post by wm » 26 Apr 2019, 02:00

GERMAN DRAFT TREATY PROPOSAL, NOVEMBER 15, 1940

AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE STATES OF THE THREE POWER PACT, GERMANY, ITALY, AND JAPAN, ON THE ONE SIDE, AND THE SOVIET UNION ON THE OTHER SIDE

The Governments of the states of the Three Power Pact, Germany, Italy and Japan, on the one side,

and

the Government of the U. S. S. R. on the other side, motivated by the desire to establish in their natural spheres of influence in Europe, Asia, and Africa a new order serving the welfare of all peoples concerned and to create a firm and enduring foundation for their common labors toward this goal, have agreed upon the following:

ARTICLE I

In the Three Power Pact of Berlin, of September 27, 1940, Germany, Italy, and Japan agreed to oppose the extension of the war into a world conflict with all possible means and to collaborate toward an early restoration of world peace. They expressed their willingness to extend their collaboration to nations in other parts of the world which are inclined to direct their efforts along the same course as theirs. The Soviet Union declares that it concurs in these aims of the Three Power Pact and is on its part determined to cooperate politically in this course with the Three Powers.

ARTICLE II

Germany, Italy, Japan, and the Soviet Union undertake to respect each other's natural spheres of influence. In so far as these spheres of interest come into contact with each other, they will constantly consult each other in an amicable way with regard to the problems arising therefrom.

Germany, Italy, and Japan declare on their part that they recognize the present extent of the possessions of the Soviet Union and will respect it.

ARTICLE III

Germany, Italy, Japan, and the Soviet Union undertake to join no combination of powers and to support no combination of powers which is directed against one of the Four Powers.

The Four Powers will assist each other in economic matters in every way and will supplement and extend the agreements existing among themselves.

ARTICLE IV

This agreement shall take effect upon signature and shall continue for a period of ten years. The Governments of the Four Powers shall consult each other in due time, before the expiration of that period, regarding the extension of the agreement.

-------------

SECRET PROTOCOL No. 1

Upon the signing today of the Agreement concluded among them, the Representatives of Germany, Italy, Japan and the Soviet Union declare as follows:

1) Germany declares that, apart from the territorial revisions in Europe to be carried out at the conclusion of peace, her territorial aspirations center in the territories of Central Africa.

2) Italy declares that, apart from the territorial revisions in Europe to be carried out at the conclusion of peace, her territorial aspirations center in the territories of Northern and Northeastern Africa.

3) Japan declares that her territorial aspirations center in the area of Eastern Asia to the south of the Island Empire of Japan.

4) The Soviet Union declares that its territorial aspirations center south of the national territory of the Soviet Union in the direction of the Indian Ocean.

The Four Powers declare that, reserving the settlement of specific questions, they will mutually respect these territorial aspirations and will not oppose their achievement.

Draft

SECRET PROTOCOL No. 2 TO BE CONCLUDED AMONG GERMANY, ITALY, AND THE SOVIET UNION

On the occasion of the signing today of the Agreement among Germany, Italy, Japan, and the Soviet Union, the Representatives of Germany, Italy and the Soviet Union declare as follows:

1) Germany, Italy, and the Soviet Union agree in the view that it is in their common interest to detach Turkey from her existing international commitments and progressively to win her over to political collaboration with themselves. They declare that they will pursue this aim in close consultation, in accordance with a common line of action which is still to be determined.

2) Germany, Italy, and the Soviet Union declare their agreement to conclude, at a given time, a joint agreement with Turkey, wherein the Three Powers would recognize the extent of Turkey's possessions.

3) Germany, Italy, and the Soviet Union will work in common toward the replacement of the Montreux Straits Convention now in force by another convention. By this convention the Soviet Union would be granted the right of unrestricted passage of its navy through the Straits at any time, whereas all other Powers except the other Black Sea countries, but including Germany and Italy, would in principle renounce the right of passage through the Straits for their naval vessels. The passage of commercial vessels through the Straits would, of course, have to remain free in principle.

--------------
SOVIET REPLY TO THE GERMAN DRAFT PROPOSAL: NOVEMBER 26, 1940

The Soviet Government has studied the contents of the statements of the Reich Foreign Minister in the concluding conversation on November 13 and takes the following stand:

"The Soviet Government is prepared to accept the draft of the Four Power Pact which the Reich Foreign Minister outlined in the conversation of November 13, regarding political collaboration and reciprocal economic subject to the following conditions:

1) Provided that the German troops are immediately withdrawn from Finland. which, under the compact of 1939, belongs to the Soviet Union's sphere of influence. At the same time the Soviet Union undertakes to ensure peaceful relations with Finland and to protect German economic interests in Finland (export of lumber and nickel).

2) Provided that within the next few months the security of the Soviet Union in the Straits is assured by the conclusion of a mutual assistance pact between the Soviet Union and Bulgaria, which geographically is situated inside the security zone of the Black Sea boundaries of the Soviet Union, and by the establishment of a base for land and naval forces of the U.S.S.R. within range of the Bosporus and the Dardanelles by means of a long-term lease.

3) Provided that the area south of Batum and Baku in the general direction of the Persian Gulf is recognized as the center of the aspirations of the Soviet Union.

4) Provided that Japan renounces her rights to concessions for coal and oil in Northern Sakhalin.

In accordance with the foregoing, the draft of the protocol concerning the delimitation of the spheres of influence as outlined by the Reich Foreign Minister would have to be amended so as to stipulate the focal point of the aspirations of the Soviet Union south of Batum and Baku in the general direction of the Persian Gulf.

Likewise, the draft of the protocol or agreement between Germany, Italy, and the Soviet Union with respect to Turkey should be amended so as to guarantee a base for light naval and land forces of the U.S.S.R. On [am] the Bosporus and the Dardanelles by means of a long-term lease, including-in case Turkey declares herself willing to join the Four Power Pact-a guarantee of the independence and of the territory of Turkey by the three countries named.

This protocol should provide that in case Turkey refuses to join the Four Powers, Germany, Italy, and the Soviet Union agree to work out and to carry through the required military and diplomatic measures, and a separate agreement to this effect should be concluded.

Furthermore there should be agreement upon:

a) a third secret protocol between Germany and the Soviet Union concerning Finland (see Point 1 above).

b) a fourth secret protocol between Japan and the Soviet Union concerning the renunciation by Japan of the oil and coal concession in Northern Sakhalin (in return for an adequate compensation).

c) a fifth secret protocol between Germany, the Soviet Union, and Italy, recognizing that Bulgaria is geographically located inside the security zone of the Black Sea boundaries of the Soviet Union and that it is therefore a political necessity that a mutual assistance pact be concluded between the Soviet Union and Bulgaria, which in no way shall affect the internal regime of Bulgaria, her sovereignty or independence."

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Re: How would Poland have been partitioned if the Soviet Union would've gotten the Curzon Line as its border in 1920?

#5

Post by Piotr Kapuscinski » 24 Oct 2019, 06:09

Which Curzon Line though? Because there were several variants.

One variant included Lviv and Sambir on the Polish side, this variant added also Drohobych and Boryslav to that:

Image

Lines of general Barthelemy and general Botha from 1919 also included these cities (either all 4 or 2) in Poland:

Image

The area of present-day Lviv Oblast was divided almost 50/50 in terms of ethnicity according to pre-war data:

(the same applied to areas of present-day Ternopil Oblast located further east)

Image

Some of the largest towns of pre-war Eastern Poland are located very close to the Curzon Line, for example:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kresy#Lar ... _and_towns

City (population size in 1931) - distance from Poland's eastern border today:

In Belarus:

Brest (48,385) - ca. 10 km
Grodno (49,669) - ca. 15 km

In Ukraine:

Volodymyr (24,591) - ca. 15 km
Sambir (21,923) - ca. 35 km
Boryslav (41,496) - ca. 50 km
Lviv (312,231) - ca. 60 km
Drohobych (32,261) - ca. 60 km


^^^
During WW2, Władysław Sikorski suggested the inclusion of those cities (except Volodymyr) into post-war Poland:

Blue = Sikorski Line

Image

The inclusion of just Lviv and Sambir would require giving some 9,300 km2 of extra land to Poland (red line in the map below), which is still less than half of Lviv Oblast, the area of which is 21,833 km2 (in the map below borders of Lviv Oblast = black line):

Image
There are words which carry the presage of defeat. Defence is such a word. What is the result of an even victorious defence? The next attempt of imposing it to that weaker, defender. The attacker, despite temporary setback, feels the master of situation.

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Re: How would Poland have been partitioned if the Soviet Union would've gotten the Curzon Line as its border in 1920?

#6

Post by Futurist » 22 Nov 2019, 23:35

Peter K wrote:
24 Oct 2019, 06:09
Which Curzon Line though? Because there were several variants.

One variant included Lviv and Sambir on the Polish side, this variant added also Drohobych and Boryslav to that:

Image

Lines of general Barthelemy and general Botha from 1919 also included these cities (either all 4 or 2) in Poland:

Image

The area of present-day Lviv Oblast was divided almost 50/50 in terms of ethnicity according to pre-war data:

(the same applied to areas of present-day Ternopil Oblast located further east)

Image

Some of the largest towns of pre-war Eastern Poland are located very close to the Curzon Line, for example:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kresy#Lar ... _and_towns

City (population size in 1931) - distance from Poland's eastern border today:

In Belarus:

Brest (48,385) - ca. 10 km
Grodno (49,669) - ca. 15 km

In Ukraine:

Volodymyr (24,591) - ca. 15 km
Sambir (21,923) - ca. 35 km
Boryslav (41,496) - ca. 50 km
Lviv (312,231) - ca. 60 km
Drohobych (32,261) - ca. 60 km


^^^
During WW2, Władysław Sikorski suggested the inclusion of those cities (except Volodymyr) into post-war Poland:

Blue = Sikorski Line

Image

The inclusion of just Lviv and Sambir would require giving some 9,300 km2 of extra land to Poland (red line in the map below), which is still less than half of Lviv Oblast, the area of which is 21,833 km2 (in the map below borders of Lviv Oblast = black line):

Image
You can choose whatever Curzon Line you want or even discuss what would have happened had different versions of the Curzon Line been adopted (as in, in different hypothetical scenarios).

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