What would Poland's foreign policy in the 1920s and 1930s have looked like had the Whites won in Russia?

[Futurist]

What would Poland's foreign policy in the 1920s and 1930s have looked like had the Whites won the Russian Civil War?

[Futurist]

wm and Steve, any thoughts on this?

[Steve]

Hi, the best I can come up with for what is a what if question is this.

The White Russian delegation at the Versailles peace conference known as the Russian Provincial Council or the Russian Political Conference depending on who you read had a view on a future Polish Russian border. They proposed that Poland’s border in the east should be based on the “ethnic” principal. There should be a common Czechoslovakian Russian border as Russia would need Czechoslovakian industrial goods. This implies a western Ukraine still in Russian control.

If the border with White Russia was much the same as the one with Red Russia then I would guess that relations between Poland and a White Russia would have been much the same as they were with Red Russia. Therefore Poland's foreign policy would have looked much the same.

[Futurist]

Hi, the best I can come up with for what is a what if question is this.

The White Russian delegation at the Versailles peace conference known as the Russian Provincial Council or the Russian Political Conference depending on who you read had a view on a future Polish Russian border. They proposed that Poland’s border in the east should be based on the “ethnic” principal. There should be a common Czechoslovakian Russian border as Russia would need Czechoslovakian industrial goods. This implies a western Ukraine still in Russian control.

If western Ukraine will end up under Russian rule and Russia would be willing to fight on behalf of Czechoslovakia in 1938, would Britain and France likewise be willing to fight on behalf of Czechoslovakia in 1938 in this scenario?

If the border with White Russia was much the same as the one with Red Russia then I would guess that relations between Poland and a White Russia would have been much the same as they were with Red Russia. Therefore Poland's foreign policy would have looked much the same.

There would be a major difference in the sense that a White Russia would not have had a goal of world Communist revolution like Red Russia had, though.

I do wonder if Poland would be more willing to make a military alliance with a White Russia than with a Red Russia, though.

[Carl Schwamberger]

All this really depends on if these White Russians are wanting to reestablish the Glorious Russian Emipre of the Czars. or if the are some sort of liberal lowlifes who are concerned with 'Russia' and uninterested in the non Russian states of the former empire. In the latter case we might better be asking about Polish relations with the Urkrianian republic or the Beylo Rus state. Theres variations between these two opposites.

[Futurist]

All this really depends on if these White Russians are wanting to reestablish the Glorious Russian Emipre of the Czars. or if the are some sort of liberal lowlifes who are concerned with 'Russia' and uninterested in the non Russian states of the former empire. In the latter case we might better be asking about Polish relations with the Urkrianian republic or the Beylo Rus state. Theres variations between these two opposites.

AFAIK, the Russian Whites generally supported the idea of a "one and indivisible" Russia. So, they're not going to agree to anyone's independence other than perhaps the Poles' (west of the Curzon Line) and/or the Finns' unless they are clearly forced to do so by someone else's superior military might.

[Carl Schwamberger]

A revanchist White regime would 'disturb the force' in eastern Europe. Probablly the middle way lies in either such a regime being too weak, or being replaced by some sort of republic or other less aggressive leadership.

The French could preserve a Polish nation, they did OTL, but they'd need a clear political incentive. OTL it was the Bolshivks. Maybe a revanchist Russian government would be so obnoxious they'd anoy the French enough? Or maybe not?

[Futurist]

A revanchist White regime would 'disturb the force' in eastern Europe. Probablly the middle way lies in either such a regime being too weak, or being replaced by some sort of republic or other less aggressive leadership.

The French could preserve a Polish nation, they did OTL, but they'd need a clear political incentive. OTL it was the Bolshivks. Maybe a revanchist Russian government would be so obnoxious they'd anoy the French enough? Or maybe not?

As I wrote above, the Russian Whites might agree to Polish independence west of the Curzon Line. If the Poles want to have any territories east of the Curzon Line, though, then they're going to have to decisively defeat the Russian Whites in battle. French military support could, of course, help with this--though I am unsure that it would actually be the decisive factor here.

[gebhk]

As the majority of the Whites never accepted the independence of Poland any more (and probably rather less) than the Bolsheviks, I see no reason why Polish foreign policy would have been any different.

[Futurist]

As the majority of the Whites never accepted the independence of Poland any more (and probably rather less) than the Bolsheviks, I see no reason why Polish foreign policy would have been any different.

I thought that Denikin was willing to recognize Poland's independence west of the Curzon Line?

[gebhk]

A drowning man will grab a razor as they say in Poland.

[Futurist]

A drowning man will grab a razor as they say in Poland.

To be honest, I think that he was simply smart enough to know that the Polonkadonks are a rebellious bunch and that thus it's more trouble than it's worth ruling over them.