Poland's foreign policy if it breaks away from Russia after a revolution in a no-WWI scenario

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Poland's foreign policy if it breaks away from Russia after a revolution in a no-WWI scenario

#1

Post by Futurist » 28 Jun 2020, 00:38

I previously ( viewtopic.php?f=11&t=237765&hilit=polan ... ign+policy ) asked this question in the What-If section of this forum, but I figure that this question deserves to be asked in this section of the forum as well. So, here goes:

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What would Poland's foreign policy be in a scenario where World War I never occurred and where Poland (as in, Congress Poland) would have broken away from Russia after Russia would have experienced a revolution (which I suspect was only a matter of time due to Russian Tsar Nicholas II's incompetence)?

For the record, in this scenario, Poland would have territorial claims on all three of its neighbors--it would want Posen, Upper Silesia, Masuria, and the Polish Corridor from Germany, Galicia from Austria, and Vilnius and possibly Volhynia as well from Russia. Which territorial claims would Poland have prioritized in this scenario and what would its relations with its neighbors and with the other Great Powers have been?

Also, it is worth noting that an independent Poland could be a pain-in-the-butt in regards to Russia's alliance with France since Russia's border with Germany is going to massively shrink in this scenario as a result of Poland being in the way. Thus, it would be an absolute imperative of Russo-French foreign policy to make Poland enter the Franco-Russian alliance in this scenario. However, Poland is probably going to demand a very high price for entering this alliance, and promises of territorial gains in Germany and Austria in the event of a future war might not be enough to convince Poland in regards to this since there is no guarantee that this war would ever actually take place and since such a war could be extremely bloody.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?

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Re: Poland's foreign policy if it breaks away from Russia after a revolution in a no-WWI scenario

#2

Post by wm » 28 Jun 2020, 22:23

No-WW1 means no revolution, at least no communist revolution.
No-WW1 means no Poland, the Russians wouldn't relinquish territories they believed were rightfully theirs (because really why?), and Germany and Austro-Hungary wouldn't either.


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Re: Poland's foreign policy if it breaks away from Russia after a revolution in a no-WWI scenario

#3

Post by Futurist » 28 Jun 2020, 22:58

wm wrote:
28 Jun 2020, 22:23
No-WW1 means no revolution, at least no communist revolution.
A liberal socialist revolution in Russia was still eventually possible in this scenario--just not a Communist one.
No-WW1 means no Poland, the Russians wouldn't relinquish territories they believed were rightfully theirs (because really why?), and Germany and Austro-Hungary wouldn't either.
Kerensky didn't object to Polish independence in 1917 in real life if the Poles agreed to a military alliance with Russia, though.

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Re: Poland's foreign policy if it breaks away from Russia after a revolution in a no-WWI scenario

#4

Post by wm » 29 Jun 2020, 22:35

All three partition powers (including Tsarist Russia) promised Polish independence (on the territory of their enemies) in exchange for a military alliance - Kerensky wasn't any exception.

I think it's a huge mistake to believe people with liberal/socialist adjectives before their name are "good guys", better people, morally superior.
Because they aren't, and it's offensive to people who aren't liberals.

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Re: Poland's foreign policy if it breaks away from Russia after a revolution in a no-WWI scenario

#5

Post by Futurist » 29 Jun 2020, 23:06

wm wrote:
29 Jun 2020, 22:35
All three partition powers (including Tsarist Russia) promised Polish independence (on the territory of their enemies) in exchange for a military alliance - Kerensky wasn't any exception.
Except out of these Russia was the only one who was actually willing to give up its own territory to this new Polish state. Germany and Austria-Hungary weren't going to give "their" Polish puppet state any of their own territory.
I think it's a huge mistake to believe people with liberal/socialist adjectives before their name are "good guys", better people, morally superior.
Because they aren't, and it's offensive to people who aren't liberals.
I was specifically talking about liberals and socialists who believe in liberal democracy here. Am I still wrong about this?

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Re: Poland's foreign policy if it breaks away from Russia after a revolution in a no-WWI scenario

#6

Post by wm » 29 Jun 2020, 23:33

Liberal democracy is a hazy term, I don't know any socialist or liberal supporting individual freedom and small government and it's getting worse by every year.
And it was much worse then.

Kerensky declared this or that (as a deputy in Duma) but the Central Powers created the Kingdom of Poland that resulted in free Poland later.
Kerensky declared this or that but the (defeated by the Poles) Bolsheviks declared the partition treaties null and void, not him.

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Re: Poland's foreign policy if it breaks away from Russia after a revolution in a no-WWI scenario

#7

Post by Futurist » 30 Jun 2020, 00:02

wm wrote:
29 Jun 2020, 23:33
Liberal democracy is a hazy term, I don't know any socialist or liberal supporting individual freedom and small government and it's getting worse by every year.
And it was much worse then.
The German SPD was pretty good, no?
Kerensky declared this or that (as a deputy in Duma) but the Central Powers created the Kingdom of Poland that resulted in free Poland later.
That was because they were actually in control of Poland back then, though.
Kerensky declared this or that but the (defeated by the Poles) Bolsheviks declared the partition treaties null and void, not him.
And Kerensky wouldn't have declared the partition treaties null and void had he managed to remain in power in Russia?

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Re: Poland's foreign policy if it breaks away from Russia after a revolution in a no-WWI scenario

#8

Post by wm » 07 Jul 2020, 22:13

Ad far as I know he declared that as a firebrand deputy in Duma not as a Russian leader.
We don't know what would have done but it wasn't likely his fellow Russians would have gladly accepted such declaration - i.e. a reconstitution of Poland in her pre-partitions borders.

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Re: Poland's foreign policy if it breaks away from Russia after a revolution in a no-WWI scenario

#9

Post by Futurist » 07 Jul 2020, 23:29

wm wrote:
07 Jul 2020, 22:13
Ad far as I know he declared that as a firebrand deputy in Duma not as a Russian leader.
We don't know what would have done but it wasn't likely his fellow Russians would have gladly accepted such declaration - i.e. a reconstitution of Poland in her pre-partitions borders.
No one--including the victorious Entente/Allies--actually wanted to restore Poland in its 1772 borders, though. They simply wanted to recreate Poland and to give Poland a large part of the territory that it lost in the late 19th century--but by no means all of this territory.

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Re: Poland's foreign policy if it breaks away from Russia after a revolution in a no-WWI scenario

#10

Post by wm » 08 Jul 2020, 16:55

Exactly, the partitions were declared null and void but not quite. It all depended on the geopolitical needs of Britain and France.
And Russia, but at that time Russia was too weak to enforce her geopolitical needs.

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Re: Poland's foreign policy if it breaks away from Russia after a revolution in a no-WWI scenario

#11

Post by Futurist » 08 Jul 2020, 19:28

wm wrote:
08 Jul 2020, 16:55
Exactly, the partitions were declared null and void but not quite. It all depended on the geopolitical needs of Britain and France.
And Russia, but at that time Russia was too weak to enforce her geopolitical needs.
Yeah. But was exactly were Russia's geopolitical needs in keeping Congress Poland--especially if Russia were to already become democratic?

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Re: Poland's foreign policy if it breaks away from Russia after a revolution in a no-WWI scenario

#12

Post by wm » 08 Jul 2020, 22:08

From the military point of view, the Russian border on the Vistula was the best western border Russia ever had.
Generally, it's nice to have lots of land between you and your enemy. And it's nice to have lots of land anyway.
Similarly, access to the sea through the Baltic states was invaluable.
Rusia as a colonial country couldn't let a colony go, without the others demanding the same. The territorial integrity of their country and its very existence was at stake.

I don't quite understand what democracy has to do with it. Democracy doesn't mean reasonable, meek, or nice to others. Democratic Britain built the largest empire ever, democratic France a smaller one, and more or less democratic Germany a one too.
It's the same mistake the Americans made in Iraq/Afganistan. Let's give them democracy and they will be saints for over. Well, didn't happen.

Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what they are going to have for lunch, so the Poles and all the other minorities could possibly win by democratic means.

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Re: Poland's foreign policy if it breaks away from Russia after a revolution in a no-WWI scenario

#13

Post by Futurist » 08 Jul 2020, 22:18

wm wrote:
08 Jul 2020, 22:08
From the military point of view, the Russian border on the Vistula was the best western border Russia ever had.
But East Prussia formed a German salient deep into Russia!
Generally, it's nice to have lots of land between you and your enemy. And it's nice to have lots of land anyway.
Agreed--though Russia already had that! Plus, wasn't Congress Poland militarily indefensible, as the events of 1915 (specifically the Gorlice-Tarnow Offensive) showed?
Similarly, access to the sea through the Baltic states was invaluable.
But Russia didn't need Poland for that!
Rusia as a colonial country couldn't let a colony go, without the others demanding the same. The territorial integrity of their country and its very existence was at stake.
Who else other than the Poles were demanding outright secession from Russia before World War I?
I don't quite understand what democracy has to do with it. Democracy doesn't mean reasonable, meek, or nice to others. Democratic Britain built the largest empire ever, democratic France a smaller one, and more or less democratic Germany a one too.
Those people didn't have democracy in their colonies, though. As in, their colonial subjects could not influence decisions in Britain, France, and Germany.
It's the same mistake the Americans made in Iraq/Afganistan. Let's give them democracy and they will be saints for over. Well, didn't happen.
And yet it is probably still better to live under the rule of a democratic Iraqi or Afghan government than under the rule of Saddam Hussein or the Taliban. If the Taliban will ever come to power in Afghanistan again, you can see just how many Afghans are going to flee from Afghanistan.
Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what they are going to have for lunch, so the Poles and all the other minorities could possibly win by democratic means.
But if there were three lambs and two wolves, then things would look much better for the lambs, no? :)

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Re: Poland's foreign policy if it breaks away from Russia after a revolution in a no-WWI scenario

#14

Post by wm » 08 Jul 2020, 23:07

Futurist wrote:
08 Jul 2020, 22:18
But East Prussia formed a German salient deep into Russia!
The Russian border was a few hours by car from Berlin, the Russian capital wasn't - that was invaluable.

The Russians didn't have to defend Poland but they could have used it to extend enemy supply lines, it was their usual strategy.

Futurist wrote:
08 Jul 2020, 22:18
But Russia didn't need Poland for that!
It was the territory of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth so actually they needed.

Futurist wrote:
08 Jul 2020, 22:18
Who else other than the Poles were demanding outright secession from Russia before World War I?
The Fins and everybody else, almost all the Russians conquests declared independence and had to be reconquered by the Red Army.

Futurist wrote:
08 Jul 2020, 22:18
And yet it is probably still better to live under the rule of a democratic Iraqi or Afghan government than under the rule of Saddam Hussein or the Taliban. If the Taliban will ever come to power in Afghanistan again, you can see just how many Afghans are going to flee from Afghanistan.
No, it's not better. You are comparing impossibility with reality. Hussein and the Taliban were/are reality. They provided stability impossible to achieve by other means.
The Taliban will come to power in Afghanistan again, and that's certain because the Taliban are the Afghans.

Futurist wrote:
08 Jul 2020, 22:18
But if there were three lambs and two wolves, then things would look much better for the lambs, no? :)
That was impossible, the Russians (with some help from Little Russians) formed an iron majority.

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Re: Poland's foreign policy if it breaks away from Russia after a revolution in a no-WWI scenario

#15

Post by Futurist » 09 Jul 2020, 00:11

wm wrote:
08 Jul 2020, 23:07
Futurist wrote:
08 Jul 2020, 22:18
But East Prussia formed a German salient deep into Russia!
The Russian border was a few hours by car from Berlin, the Russian capital wasn't - that was invaluable.

The Russians didn't have to defend Poland but they could have used it to extend enemy supply lines, it was their usual strategy.
Extending enemy supply lines is certainly an interesting point. This would, of course, also require Russia to temporarily abandon Poland and to temporarily give up various fortresses and whatnot in Poland.
Futurist wrote:
08 Jul 2020, 22:18
But Russia didn't need Poland for that!
It was the territory of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth so actually they needed.
IMHO, Russia's 1795 borders were good enough. They didn't need to expand even further in 1815. Though eastern Galicia could have been taken.
Futurist wrote:
08 Jul 2020, 22:18
Who else other than the Poles were demanding outright secession from Russia before World War I?
The Fins and everybody else, almost all the Russians conquests declared independence and had to be reconquered by the Red Army.
But did these independence movements already exist before World War I?
Futurist wrote:
08 Jul 2020, 22:18
And yet it is probably still better to live under the rule of a democratic Iraqi or Afghan government than under the rule of Saddam Hussein or the Taliban. If the Taliban will ever come to power in Afghanistan again, you can see just how many Afghans are going to flee from Afghanistan.
No, it's not better. You are comparing impossibility with reality. Hussein and the Taliban were/are reality. They provided stability impossible to achieve by other means.
We currently have stability in Iraq without Saddam Hussein. As for stability, the reason that there is a lack of stability in Afghanistan right now is due to the Taliban itself.
The Taliban will come to power in Afghanistan again, and that's certain because the Taliban are the Afghans.
Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah are also Afghans, though.
Futurist wrote:
08 Jul 2020, 22:18
But if there were three lambs and two wolves, then things would look much better for the lambs, no? :)
That was impossible, the Russians (with some help from Little Russians) formed an iron majority.
But Little Russians (aka Ukrainians) had their own identity, no?

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