Plausibility Check: A Germano-Franco-British ultimatum to the USSR after a quick end to WWII?

[Futurist]

If the 1940 Nazi invasion of France would have somehow failed and internal opponents of the Nazis in Germany would have subsequently staged a successful coup against Hitler and the Nazis, and the Anglo-French and the new German government would have actually been able to make peace, would it have been realistic for Germany, France, and Britain to subsequently give an ultimatum to the Soviet Union to withdraw from eastern Poland and the Baltic countries and to threaten the Soviet Union with war if the Soviets will refuse to obey this ultimatum?

The Anglo-French logic behind such a move would be obvious--they would want to restore Poland's eastern lands or at the very least to hold a free and fair plebiscite there in order to determine these lands' future fate. Britain and France might feel that it is no more justified for the Soviet Union to conquer these lands without holding a plebiscite there than for Poland to conquer these lands without holding a plebiscite there. As for Germany, Britain and France could theoretically offer Germany a carrot--as in, Germany (which, remember, is no longer led by Hitler and the Nazis but rather by a more conciliatory post-Nazi regime) supports Britain and France in regards to this, and Britain and France could agree to hold a free and fair plebiscite in Danzig and some or all of the Polish Corridor in exchange for this. That way, Germany is virtually guaranteed to at least get Danzig if it cooperates with Britain and France in regards to pushing the Soviet Union out of its 1939-1940 territorial conquests.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?

[Futurist]

Anyone?

[gebhk]

The Anglo-French logic behind such a move would be obvious--they would want to restore Poland's eastern lands or at the very least to hold a free and fair plebiscite there in order to determine these lands' future fate.

And I think there you hit the nub of the matter nail on the head. You have to assume the French/British have an interest in restoring Poland's Eastern territories - and I don't see much evidence of that.

[Futurist]

Not even if they thought that they could do so relatively cheaply (as in, in a war that lasts for a year or less)?

[gebhk]

HMGs position as early as, I think, October-November 1993 was that the Soviet's occupying the parts of Poland they were occupying was an entirely satisfactory situation.

[Sheldrake]

This reads like a rehash of the WW2 German position that the real enemy was the Soviet Union and not Germany.

It is true that the Cold war politics ended up with Britain France and Germany as NATO allies, but timing is everything. NATO in the face of a nuclear armed Soviet Union on the Elbe was a material; threat to Britain and France. Stalin occupying Eastern Poland and Bessarabia wasn't. Britain and France went to war to put an end to a resurgent Germany. Think about what peace terms Britain and France might have imposed on Germany after winning the war in 1940.

[Futurist]

HMGs position as early as, I think, October-November 1993 was that the Soviet's occupying the parts of Poland they were occupying was an entirely satisfactory situation.

You mean 1939 as opposed to 1993, correct?

[gebhk]

OOps, yes, thank you. 1939 of course.

[Futurist]

OOps, yes, thank you. 1939 of course.

OK; makes sense.

It does seem rather sad for Poland to lose half of its territory, but as I previously said, from a Machievallian perspective, the Ukrainian nationalists in Galicia and Volhynia really do belong in Ukraine since they're needed there in order to make Ukraine more pro-Western. Had Poland kept these regions, even if Ukraine would have eventually acquired its independence, its odds of eventually being pulled back into Russia's orbit would have been much higher due to there being a more pro-Russian electorate in Ukraine on average without Galicia and Volhynia.