Backdoor to war theory - do you believe it?

[john2]

I was going to let this thread go now but since it's come back up I thought I'd make another post.
Doing research has been an issue for me - aside from the fact that I can't afford to buy a lot of books figuring out which book to buy can be hard to do. There is a site called open library, I think it might be a government site, where you can read books for free and it is has been a lot of help. Googling can help too. While I'm aware reading wikipedia and different websites isn't the best way to research you can still learn a lot and you can usually tell if you are on a serious site or a conspiracy site.

So with that out of the way I've found some more holes in the backdoor theory. I'm posting this mainly for someone who is new since most of you on here seem to be well read on subject.
- The plans made to attack Pearl Harbor were apparently made in January 1941. I mention this because the oil embargo is usually shown as the main reason why Japan attacked. But the embargo didn't go into effect until July. So the Japanese were already thinking about attacking before the embargo!
- The oil embargo was itself a reaction to the Japanese occupation of southern Indochina which was done to get bases for the attacks in the Pacific.

Considering the above the embargo it seems might have accelerated things but it certainly wasn't the cause for Japan's attack. I've also learned more about Roosevelt's reaction to the attack. I had been under the impression he wasn't concerned but apparently he was more upset then I had thought. Considering everything I'm beginning to lean back toward the mainstream version of history.

[OpanaPointer]

Yamamoto Isoruku had casually discussed the raid even before Jan. '41, but yes, that's the date formal planning was begun.

I routinely read books put out by conspiracy advocates because they sometimes bring up issues I hadn't considered and propose scenarios I hadn't thought of.

[Carl Schwamberger]

...
- The oil embargo was itself a reaction to the Japanese occupation of southern Indochina which was done to get bases for the attacks in the Pacific.

Well they did gain the relatively small military port of Cam Rhan Bay located on the large deep water bay of the same name, and the commercial ports of Hai Phong and port of Saigon. But closing the Red River transportation route to Nationalist China territory, and gaining the very lucrative Mekong agricultural region seem to have been much bigger considerations. The initial japanese move into French Indo China came shortly after the Franco German armistice of June 1940. The Japanese began demanding the French close the Hai Phong-Kumanan transport link to material for China. When the Germans agreed to a Japanese request to waive the Amisitce requirement the French keep foreign soldiers out of their colonies, the French agreed to block the shipment of goods to China. Despite this 'TonkinAgreemnt' local Jpanese Army commander attack French military units & initiated a four day battle 22-26 September 1940.

Although the Tonkin Agreement allowed the occupation of FIC south of the Red River region with 40,000 Japanese soldiers the Japanese did not occupy that region until July 1941. Previous to the initial occupation of Hai Phong the US had imposed limited economic sanctions from 1938, & terminated in 1939 the Japanese-US Commercial Treaty of 1911. After the Occupation of Hai Phong the US began investigating and threatening stronger sanctions should Japan continue with the Tonkin Agreement occupation. The Japanese signature on the Tripate Act in 1940 caused the US to step up pressure on Japan. While the US did not carry out its threats in 1940 Its internal policy favoring the Allies at war with Germany was making it more difficult for Japanese to obtain raw and finisehd material from the US, and borrowing capitol from the powerful US banks was becoming more expensive. That the KMT government of China was receiving favorable loan terms from the US was particularly objectionable to Japans leaders. Further pressure was brought by the US in closing the Panama Cannal to Japanese flagged ships, and restricting shipment of high quality scrap steel to Japan. Negotiations were gradually started then expanded by Japan & the US. Some progress was made, but the accension of Tojo to Prime Minister led to rejection of the proposals forwarded by the negotiators.

The decision to complete and expand the occupation of FIC came in July after the German-Soviet war was underway. On 24 July the Japanese started occupation of key airfields in FIC and on 26th July the US froze Japanese finical assets in the US Banks. This action which was supported in Britain pretty much shut Japan out of international trade. Its credit terminated, unable to obtain any sort of loans, or use draft accounts & pay out of its funds in the New York and London banks Japan was well and truly screwed. The complete embargo of petroleum fuels shortly after drove the point home. Negotiations intensified & ran into November. None of the proposals were remotely acceptable to the Tojo government. In October the cabinet agreed to make the complete preparations for war. On 5 November the Emperors approval for war was made, with a target date of early December. Negotiations ran on to 20 November with a Japanese proposal & 26 November with a US counter proposal rejected. At that date the Japanese negotiators announced they had to consult with their government, which effectively suspended the negotiations, tho technically they were still open. On the 27th Roosevelt authorized a "War Warning" order be sent to all major commands in the Pacific. This order stated that any Japanese military forces approaching US territory were to be considered hostile, and authorized local commanders to attack them without further orders.

The key dates when Japans contingency plans were converted to a actual intent for war seem to be in early October 1941. Prime Minister Konoes arguments for concessions to extend negotiations and avoid war lost its force. On 16 October Konoe resigned & Tojo returned to the Prime Ministers position. Tojo was directed to complete preparations for a war for the southern resource area, and with the US. A current plan was to be completed as soon as possible. Those plans were submitted to the Cabinet 2 November & approved 5 November.

[OpanaPointer]

The Japanese had guaranteed that they wouldn't occupy northern Indochina. That would have given them a largely unprotected border to cross into the Chinese wheat growing areas. They made a decision to flout that promise and they were upset when the US reacted.

[Gorque]

Hi Carl:

Great post regarding FIC

[Richard Anderson]

...
The oil embargo was itself a reaction to the Japanese occupation of southern Indochina which was done to get bases for the attacks in the Pacific.

Cochin China (southern Indochina) was occupied 28 September 1941, but the freeze of Japanese assets by the U.S., Great Britain, and the Netherlands that effectively began the "embargo" occurred on 25-26 July 1941. It is difficult to see how one could be a reaction to the other?

[john2]

From wikipedia -

To prepare for an invasion of the Dutch East Indies, some 140,000 Japanese troops invaded southern French Indochina on 28 July 1941.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_ ... _Indochina

I know it's wikipedia but I don't have time to look for a better source at the moment but I've read this before. The actual freezing of assets took place I believe 3 days earlier but that was because US intelligence had already learned of the Japanese plans. Roosevelt also offered to guarantee Indochina's neutrality and promised that Japan could get the resources they wanted from there on condition they not occupy the country. The Japanese never replied to this proposal.

Btw I noticed your date was the same but 2 months later. Perhaps there is a mistake somewhere? But I know I have read in several sources it was July.

[john2]

Sorry to post again. I found a more a detailed source now. https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/W ... elles7.htm
This is from a meeting on between Roosevelt and the Japanese ambassador dated July 24, 1941:

The President stated that if the Japanese Government would refrain from occupying Indochina with its military and naval forces, or, had such steps actually been commenced, if the Japanese Government would withdraw such forces, the President could assure the Japanese Government that he would do everything within his power to obtain from the Governments of China, Great Britain, the Netherlands, and of course the United States itself a binding and solemn declaration, provided Japan would undertake the same commitment, to regard Indochina as a neutralized country in the same way in which Switzerland had up to now been regarded by the powers as a neutralized country. He stated that this would imply that none of the powers concerned would undertake any military act of aggression against Indochina and would refrain from the exercise of any military control within or over Indochina. He would further endeavor to procure from Great Britain and the other pertinent powers a guarantee that so long as the present emergency continued, the local French authorities in Indochina would remain in control of the territory and would not be confronted with attempts to dislodge them on the part of de Gaullist or Free French agents or forces.

[Richard Anderson]

Btw I noticed your date was the same but 2 months later. Perhaps there is a mistake somewhere? But I know I have read in several sources it was July.

Ooops! My bad, I mixed up 1940 and 1941.

[john2]

Yeah I was getting the dates messed up too at first. Btw when Japan occupied the rest of Indochina in 1941 Roosevelt never waited for a reply to his proposal before freezing Japan's assets. My understanding was:
- On the 24th according to the quote above Roosevelt offered to guarantee Indochina's neutrality.
-On the 25th without waiting for a reply to his offer he froze Japan's assets.
- On the 28th Japan went ahead with the occupation of southern Indochina.

During this time as early as the 26th I believe? Secretary of state Hull pressed Nomura for answer to the president's offer. The Japanese government was slow to respond but eventually said the occupation couldn't be undone. I have read an interesting theory that Roosevelt was trying to distract Japan by having them turn south so they didn't attack Russia and help Hitler. However I'm not sure if there is any evidence to back that up.

[OpanaPointer]

Yeah I was getting the dates messed up too at first. Btw when Japan occupied the rest of Indochina in 1941 Roosevelt never waited for a reply to his proposal before freezing Japan's assets. My understanding was:
- On the 24th according to the quote above Roosevelt offered to guarantee Indochina's neutrality.
-On the 25th without waiting for a reply to his offer he froze Japan's assets.
- On the 28th Japan went ahead with the occupation of southern Indochina.

During this time as early as the 26th I believe? Secretary of state Hull pressed Nomura for answer to the president's offer. The Japanese government was slow to respond but eventually said the occupation couldn't be undone. I have read an interesting theory that Roosevelt was trying to distract Japan by having them turn south so they didn't attack Russia and help Hitler. However I'm not sure if there is any evidence to back that up.

Have you read the Magic intercepts for that period?

[Takao]

Yeah I was getting the dates messed up too at first. Btw when Japan occupied the rest of Indochina in 1941 Roosevelt never waited for a reply to his proposal before freezing Japan's assets. My understanding was:
- On the 24th according to the quote above Roosevelt offered to guarantee Indochina's neutrality.
-On the 25th without waiting for a reply to his offer he froze Japan's assets.
- On the 28th Japan went ahead with the occupation of southern Indochina.

During this time as early as the 26th I believe? Secretary of state Hull pressed Nomura for answer to the president's offer. The Japanese government was slow to respond but eventually said the occupation couldn't be undone. I have read an interesting theory that Roosevelt was trying to distract Japan by having them turn south so they didn't attack Russia and help Hitler. However I'm not sure if there is any evidence to back that up.

The occupation began on July 24th, with Japanese forces taking over airfields and ports, the full scale invasion began on the 25th with Japanese forces moving to occupy the rest of the Indochina territory.

[OpanaPointer]

http://www.ibiblio.org/pha/paw/index.html

http://www.ibiblio.org/pha/events/events.html

http://www.ibiblio.org/pha/events/index.html

http://ibiblio.org/pha/timeline/

[john2]

OpanaPointer

Have you read the Magic intercepts for that period?

I was away for the weekend and just now got back. I have not read all the magic intercepts in detail. The ones I am familiar with are about the attack planning for Pearl Harbor so I will start researching the others when I can. Btw thanks for the links!

Takao

The occupation began on July 24th, with Japanese forces taking over airfields and ports, the full scale invasion began on the 25th with Japanese forces moving to occupy the rest of the Indochina territory.

Thanks! That clears things up more. I knew it was around the 25th but wasn't sure of the exact date. I just went by wikipedia which said the 28th.

[OpanaPointer]

Here you go: http://www.ibiblio.org/pha/magic/

One of my homework avoidance projects when I was at grad school.