Terry Duncan wrote:If we are talking about Germany gaining a sensible port like Casablanca as a concession, not a basket case like Agadir which was simply a port used in 1911 to show a 'German business interest' in an area outside of the control of the Moroccan/French forces, then it is likely to take less than five years, as Tsingtao was operational within such a period and fortified too.
Quite so.
Decision-making is a fluid process based upon specifics and wider context. Agadir is not Casablanca. Agadir is not Antwerp. 1870 is not 1911 or 1914. A decision taken at one point in time is not necessarily a guarantee that the same decision will be taken at a different point in time. It is most unlikely the same decision will be made given wholly different specifics and context.
Was Germany trying to stir up a bit of mischief in Morocco in 1911? Yes!
Did either Germany, Britain or France base their 1911 decisions and effort upon creating the fear, or there being a fear, of a greater threat to Gibraltar of merchant passage through the Med? Seems pretty unlikely to me.