The Schlieffen Plan and August 1st, 1914

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Moose1871
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The Schlieffen Plan and August 1st, 1914

#1

Post by Moose1871 » 09 Mar 2021, 21:36

Currently reading through Annika Mombauer's Moltke and the Origins of the First World War. Mombauer makes the argument that the German General Staff's focus on only the Schlieffen Plan in 1913/1914 and discarding of any Eastern Deployment Plan fixed Germany's course in late-July early August 1914, when German mobilization began. She says,
In April 1913, it was decided to discontinue the annual updating of the Eastern Deployment Plan. At the end of the July Crisis (she's referring to August 1st here) such a plan might have provided Germany with a feasible alternative when, for a short while, it looked as if French neutrality, contrary to all expectations, was a possibility. In the event, this turned out to be merely wishful thinking, but the fact remains that no alternative plan existed: if France had decided to remain neutral, Germany would still have had to attack her... No matter what the political situation, military planning dictated the events.
This seems to be a somewhat common argument - that the rigidity of the Schlieffen Plan precluded other strategic options. But then later, Mombauer recounts the night of August 1st, 1914, when the Kaiser directed Moltke to reorganize the troops East in response to a British proposal of French neutrality. Moltke famously refused to change the plan. But then she says,
Eventually, Moltke was able to achieve a compromise: deployment was allowed to continue as planned, but had to stop just before the border. Depending on French assurances, an orderly move to the East could then be undertaken, rather than halting the deployment immediately and causing chaos.
If an "orderly move to the East" was possible without attacking the French, surely the Germans weren't so strategically bound by the Schlieffen Plan? Curious what other people here think about it.

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Re: The Schlieffen Plan and August 1st, 1914

#2

Post by john2 » 09 Mar 2021, 23:30

It's not that it couldn't be done but there were reasons why abandoning the Schlieffen plan might not be a good idea. For starters there was the politics - France and Russia were allies. Were the French really going to sit back and wait their turn? Then there were military considerations. Most of Germany's industry was on the western border and then there was the slow mobilization of Russia. The idea was to knock out France before Russia could attack. A Russia only strategy only works if there was a real chance France would sit out the war.


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Re: The Schlieffen Plan and August 1st, 1914

#3

Post by Ружичасти Слон » 10 Mar 2021, 16:06

Moose1871 wrote:
09 Mar 2021, 21:36
If an "orderly move to the East" was possible without attacking the French, surely the Germans weren't so strategically bound by the Schlieffen Plan? Curious what other people here think about it.
I not understand your problem.

Moltke was be so strategically bound by the Schlieffen Plan and it was be possible on orderly move to the East.

Why was you think it must be only one not can be both ?

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Re: The Schlieffen Plan and August 1st, 1914

#4

Post by Moose1871 » 10 Mar 2021, 19:17

I was wondering specifically about how Mombauer says that "if France had decided to remain neutral, Germany would still have had to attack her... No matter what the political situation, military planning dictated the events." Obviously this isn't true, if Germany could have moved forces east after completing the mobilization plan..?

Though I agree that it seems like Moltke was tied to the Schlieffen Plan and didn't want to entertain alternatives. But it's not like the Schlieffen Plan forced Germany to go to war with France?

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Re: The Schlieffen Plan and August 1st, 1914

#5

Post by Ружичасти Слон » 10 Mar 2021, 20:34

Moose1871 wrote:
10 Mar 2021, 19:17
I was wondering specifically about how Mombauer says that "if France had decided to remain neutral, Germany would still have had to attack her... No matter what the political situation, military planning dictated the events." Obviously this isn't true, if Germany could have moved forces east after completing the mobilization plan..?

Though I agree that it seems like Moltke was tied to the Schlieffen Plan and didn't want to entertain alternatives. But it's not like the Schlieffen Plan forced Germany to go to war with France?
Ok. Now you was change your problem.

On first post your problem was be how can be orderly move to the East was possible without attacking the French, surely the Germans weren't so strategically bound by the Schlieffen Plan?

On new post your problem was be was be mombauer words if France had decided to remain neutral, Germany would still have had to attack her... No matter what the political situation, military planning dictated the events correct ?

Complete different problem.

I can to propose on analysis words
In April 1913, it was decided to discontinue the annual updating of the Eastern Deployment Plan. At the end of the July Crisis (she's referring to August 1st here) such a plan might have provided Germany with a feasible alternative when, for a short while, it looked as if French neutrality, contrary to all expectations, was a possibility. In the event, this turned out to be merely wishful thinking, but the fact remains that no alternative plan existed: if France had decided to remain neutral, Germany would still have had to attack her... No matter what the political situation, military planning dictated the events.
but the fact remains that no alternative plan existed = not correct

How to know ?

discontinue the annual updating of the Eastern Deployment Plan. = 1912.year plan was exist but was not be update.

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Re: The Schlieffen Plan and August 1st, 1914

#6

Post by Moose1871 » 10 Mar 2021, 20:38

Ok. Now you was change your problem.
The quote I cited was in my original post - maybe my wording just wasn't clear to you.

Basically what I'm saying is that it seems like the Schlieffen Plan didn't force Germany to attack France - even if Germany didn't have an alternate plan (true) then if it didn't want to attack France, then it could have redirected troops East after mobilization (as was briefly agreed to on August 1st). So what Mombauer is saying doesn't make sense to me. Even without an alternate plan, Germany still had the choice not to attack France.

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Re: The Schlieffen Plan and August 1st, 1914

#7

Post by Terry Duncan » 10 Mar 2021, 21:05

Ружичасти Слон wrote:
10 Mar 2021, 20:34
but the fact remains that no alternative plan existed = not correct

How to know ?

discontinue the annual updating of the Eastern Deployment Plan. = 1912.year plan was exist but was not be update.
The 1912 plan existed to some extent or other. The problem is that the massive strength increase from the 1912/13 army increases are not included at all in the plan, yet the men involved would still be expected to head to a depot for assembly and equipping. How that could be balanced if the depots didnt contain the correct supplies needed for an eastern deployment is anyones guess.

I think there is a certain realism behind Moltke's position over war with France no matter what, and it made more sense to wage a war they gauged as possible to win rather than a war all their theorists insisted wasnt winable.

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Re: The Schlieffen Plan and August 1st, 1914

#8

Post by Ружичасти Слон » 10 Mar 2021, 22:02

Moose1871 wrote:
10 Mar 2021, 20:38
Basically what I'm saying is that it seems like the Schlieffen Plan didn't force Germany to attack France
When you was write the Schlieffen Plan was you mean the Denkschrift what Schlieffen was write on 1905.year or was you mean all the germany army war plans when schlieffen was gone when moltke was on charge ?

Moose1871 wrote:
10 Mar 2021, 20:38
- even if Germany didn't have an alternate plan (true) then if it didn't want to attack France, then it could have redirected troops East after mobilization (as was briefly agreed to on August 1st). So what Mombauer is saying doesn't make sense to me. Even without an alternate plan, Germany still had the choice not to attack France.
Germany was have choice not for to attack france.

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Re: The Schlieffen Plan and August 1st, 1914

#9

Post by Ружичасти Слон » 10 Mar 2021, 22:28

Terry Duncan wrote:
10 Mar 2021, 21:05

The 1912 plan existed to some extent or other. The problem is that the massive strength increase from the 1912/13 army increases are not included at all in the plan, yet the men involved would still be expected to head to a depot for assembly and equipping. How that could be balanced if the depots didnt contain the correct supplies needed for an eastern deployment is anyones guess.
I not was propose germany army can to use 1912.year plan on 1914.year. I was write 1912.year plan was exist.

When people understand problem people can to see what mombauer was write was not make sense on real life.

On real history problem on topic mobilization when france can to be neutral for germany leaders was be start after mobilization was start. Information from lichnowsky was arrive short time after mobilization was start but decision what can to do was take more time. So already many orders was be sent and mobilization was start.

Was not be practical for to stop mobilization on france and send on russia. Best solution was send on france border and when arrive send mens to russia border.

It was not be possible for to have such plan on advance. Never. As soon as mobilization on france was start all plans on Aufmarsch II Ost was be no good. Even on imagination Aufmarsch II Ost plan on date june 1914.year was be no good.

Terry Duncan wrote:
10 Mar 2021, 21:05
I think there is a certain realism behind Moltke's position over war with France no matter what, and it made more sense to wage a war they gauged as possible to win rather than a war all their theorists insisted wasnt winable.
1. Moltke was 100% realistic when he was assume france and russia was fight together.

2. Moltke was 100% realistic when he was explain for to win war on france must to continue on mobilization on france.

3. Moltke was 100% realistic when he was explain must to be mobilization chaos when give order on middle mobilization for to change direction on russia.

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Re: The Schlieffen Plan and August 1st, 1914

#10

Post by Moose1871 » 11 Mar 2021, 00:31

Right, so the problem was that strategically it didn't make sense for Germany not to conduct the Schlieffen Plan, since (at least in Moltke's mind) it was inevitable that France would support Russia when war started. But not having any Aufmarsch Ost didn't force Germany to declare war on France - that doesn't make sense. Even without an alternate plan, Germany could have chosen not to attack France in the unlikely scenario that France was neutral.

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Re: The Schlieffen Plan and August 1st, 1914

#11

Post by Ружичасти Слон » 11 Mar 2021, 17:59

Moose1871 wrote:
11 Mar 2021, 00:31
Right, so the problem was that strategically it didn't make sense for Germany not to conduct the Schlieffen Plan, since (at least in Moltke's mind) it was inevitable that France would support Russia when war started.
What you was write was have no meaning because you was not explain what you was mean on words the Schlieffen Plan.

On august 1914.year germany army was attack france on war plan Aufmarsch 1914/15. Aufmarsch 1914/15 was not be the Schlieffen Plan.

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Re: The Schlieffen Plan and August 1st, 1914

#12

Post by john2 » 12 Mar 2021, 16:52

To Moose1871 - Germany was not forced to attack France. I'm not sure why the Russia only plan was discontinued there are far more knowledgeable people on here then me who might be able to explain. It's a moot point anyway as France was not going to remain neutral - at least in 1914.

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Re: The Schlieffen Plan and August 1st, 1914

#13

Post by Moose1871 » 13 Mar 2021, 05:56

john2 wrote:
12 Mar 2021, 16:52
To Moose1871 - Germany was not forced to attack France. I'm not sure why the Russia only plan was discontinued there are far more knowledgeable people on here then me who might be able to explain. It's a moot point anyway as France was not going to remain neutral - at least in 1914.
This is my read too - seems like an odd conclusion from Mombauer.

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Re: The Schlieffen Plan and August 1st, 1914

#14

Post by Terry Duncan » 13 Mar 2021, 14:36

Pt 1.
john2 wrote:
12 Mar 2021, 16:52
To Moose1871 - Germany was not forced to attack France.
Is answered by;

Pt 2.
john2 wrote:
12 Mar 2021, 16:52
It's a moot point anyway as France was not going to remain neutral - at least in 1914.
As France was not going to remain neutral it made sense to heavily attack the nation that would be easiest to beat or cripple as a two front long term war was unwinable for Germany. This meant France.

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Re: The Schlieffen Plan and August 1st, 1914

#15

Post by ljadw » 13 Mar 2021, 15:36

There is no proof that France would not remain neutral in a war between Germany and Russia .

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