Without the Fall of France, do you think that Hungary eventually ends up losing its territorial gains from 1938-1939?

Discussions on all aspects of the smaller Axis nations in Europe and Asia. Hosted by G. Trifkovic.
Futurist
Member
Posts: 3432
Joined: 24 Dec 2015 00:02
Location: SoCal

Re: Without the Fall of France, do you think that Hungary eventually ends up losing its territorial gains from 1938-1939

Post by Futurist » 10 Jun 2021 01:38

wm wrote:
09 Jun 2021 21:06
Futurist wrote:
09 Jun 2021 20:56
wm is correct here. I was specifically of not having any Operation Barbarossa here. But I was also wondering if a victorious Britain and France would try undoing the injustices that Czechoslovakia suffered at the hands of its neighbors in 1938-1939, either fully or partially.
The injustice was (at least partially) supported by Britain and France, after all Britain (grudgingly) repudiated the Munich Agreement as late as 1942 - after lots of pressure.
And it wasn't really injustice, Czechoslovakia annexed the territories by force - including the Sudetenland. Czechoslovakia was the predator there, not its neighbors.
Technically, both sides were predators here. Though I suppose that one civil way to resolve this question might be to hold free and fair plebiscites in all of the disputed territories. I know how southern Hungary and the Sudetenland will vote--as well as Teschen--but I'm not sure how exactly Subcarpathian Ruthenia will vote. What do you think?

User avatar
wm
Member
Posts: 6219
Joined: 29 Dec 2006 20:11
Location: Poland

Re: Without the Fall of France, do you think that Hungary eventually ends up losing its territorial gains from 1938-1939

Post by wm » 10 Jun 2021 18:40

I would say, at that time, the wishes of the peoples were irrelevant as long as a major power didn't support their ambitions.
At that time, the only universally recognized principle was the inviolability of borders, territorial integrity.
The right to self-determination wasn't a thing, and isn't even today - I suppose the Chechens, Kurds, Tibetans would gladly explain why.

Czechoslovakia violated the territorial integrity of its neighbors (and waged war on Poland), without gaining a mandate from the Allies (and from the eventual plebiscites) - that's why it was the aggressor. Austria, Hungary, Poland didn't do that.

Being poor and mostly Ukrainian (and considering the effectiveness of Soviet propaganda) Subcarpathian Ruthenia probably would vote for the Soviets - but that wasn't allowed.

Futurist
Member
Posts: 3432
Joined: 24 Dec 2015 00:02
Location: SoCal

Re: Without the Fall of France, do you think that Hungary eventually ends up losing its territorial gains from 1938-1939

Post by Futurist » 11 Jun 2021 02:34

wm wrote:
10 Jun 2021 18:40
Being poor and mostly Ukrainian (and considering the effectiveness of Soviet propaganda) Subcarpathian Ruthenia probably would vote for the Soviets - but that wasn't allowed.
What about if they were forced to choose strictly between Czechoslovakia (or Slovakia, if Czechoslovakia never actually gets recreated) and Hungary?

User avatar
wm
Member
Posts: 6219
Joined: 29 Dec 2006 20:11
Location: Poland

Re: Without the Fall of France, do you think that Hungary eventually ends up losing its territorial gains from 1938-1939

Post by wm » 11 Jun 2021 22:55

I'm rather sure that due to cultural and language similarities (and the fact the Austro-Hungarian Army and the Hungarians misbehaved there) the non-Hungarian parts would vote for Czechoslovakia.

Futurist
Member
Posts: 3432
Joined: 24 Dec 2015 00:02
Location: SoCal

Re: Without the Fall of France, do you think that Hungary eventually ends up losing its territorial gains from 1938-1939

Post by Futurist » 12 Jun 2021 01:38

Interesting. And no doubt the Hungarian-majority parts of Czechoslovakia (including the southernmost part of Subcarpathian Ruthenia) would have preferred Hungary, correct?

Peter89
Member
Posts: 1009
Joined: 28 Aug 2018 05:52
Location: Spain

Re: Without the Fall of France, do you think that Hungary eventually ends up losing its territorial gains from 1938-1939

Post by Peter89 » 12 Jun 2021 10:11

I think we should acknowledge a few things before moving on.

First of all, this whole idea that national identity can be measured by votes. The very nature of voting is different than that of national identity. For example, if you vote for A, you still have to live together with those who voted for B; they'll have the same rights after the election and they are allowed to criticize their own candidates, say positive things about A, etc., but most importantly, they are allowed and intellectually encouraged to change their opinions.

Identity works differently. A vote about identity is a vote about an existential threat. Also a vote that cannot be changed peacefully. Also a vote that gives every right to the victor and none to the loser. Because there is no "constitutional" overseeing body, there is no need to make any amendments to those who are ill-affected. Elections / plebistices based on identity are about fear, hatred and desires. Objective evaluation has little role in such affairs.


But even if we try to make an objective analysis, we should understand a few intrinsic problems with the whole matter.

The first and very obvious one is that when parties are so much interested in all kind of cheating in the procedure, these cheatings will happen. The very few plebistices held after WW1 always displayed some form of violence, falsification, etc.

Secondly, where there are mixed areas (where these plebistices are supposed to be held), there will always be a problem with the lines of the area where the plebistice should be held. For example, at the Sopron plebistice 5 villages wanted to belong to Austria by an overwhelming margin. Despite their votes, they had to remain with Hungary, because the votes in Sopron overwhelmed their opinion, so it is quite funny to talk about self-determination in this regard. But it is also very obvious; if Germany occupies France in 1940 and organized a plebistice about whether France should be independent or should join Germany, they'd most likely win that plebistice.

To avoid this, it is possible to draw up a graph theory modell, where settlements with the same ethnic backgrounds can be connected, and where the intersections of the graph networks of different ethnic groups can differentiate between "ethnic core" territories and "ethnically mixed" territories. However, this modell is also faulty, because of migration. Even though migration wasn't as much prevalent as it is today, we are talking about domestic migration, the best example is the Ostflucht and the Silesian plebistices.

And thirdly, the national identity does not equal the opinion about where a region wants to belong. Despite ethnically a German majority area, the Sopron plebistice resulted the area to be part of Hungary. Even without oppression and cheating, there are a lot of things to consider, including economic prospects, freedom and religion. Such considerations can overwhelm national feelings, especially in ethnically mixed areas, where fluid- and dual national identities were common.

Long story short, I don't think we can make a reliable prognosis in this thread.
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

User avatar
wm
Member
Posts: 6219
Joined: 29 Dec 2006 20:11
Location: Poland

Re: Without the Fall of France, do you think that Hungary eventually ends up losing its territorial gains from 1938-1939

Post by wm » 13 Jun 2021 07:49

It happened in Poland too, that seemingly Polish but in fact, bicultural folks voted for Germany for economic reasons (i.e., because Germany was a much wealthier country with greater opportunities).
But excluding such fringe cases the Poles weren't going to vote for Germany and the Germans for Poland.

And the Hungarians, members of a well-developed culture weren't either.

Peter89
Member
Posts: 1009
Joined: 28 Aug 2018 05:52
Location: Spain

Re: Without the Fall of France, do you think that Hungary eventually ends up losing its territorial gains from 1938-1939

Post by Peter89 » 13 Jun 2021 09:28

wm wrote:
13 Jun 2021 07:49
It happened in Poland too, that seemingly Polish but in fact, bicultural folks voted for Germany for economic reasons (i.e., because Germany was a much wealthier country with greater opportunities).
But excluding such fringe cases the Poles weren't going to vote for Germany and the Germans for Poland.

And the Hungarians, members of a well-developed culture weren't either.
If you are right, then the national identity of the population of Sopron was measured incorrectly.
The "fringe cases" meant that despite 48% Hungarians in Sopron, 72% voted to remain in Hungary.

The other alternative is that you are wrong and the ethnic Germans of Sopron voted to remain in the devastated and impoverished Hungary, instead of being a regional capital of Burgenland in Austria.

To be fair, it is also possible that the election was somehow rigged.

Even today, millions of Eastern Europeans migrate to Germany, Austria, etc. effectively changing nationality. Also, millions migrated to the US,leaving behind their nationalities for quite mundane reasons. I don't think that we are talking about fringe cases here.

Obviously, if you ask a Hungarian in Budapest, whether he wants to be part of Czechoslovakia for better state pensions, the answer is obviously no. But in mixed areas, where half of your friends and family is of another nationality, and also you are bilingual, there are other preferences.
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

User avatar
wm
Member
Posts: 6219
Joined: 29 Dec 2006 20:11
Location: Poland

Re: Without the Fall of France, do you think that Hungary eventually ends up losing its territorial gains from 1938-1939

Post by wm » 13 Jun 2021 10:25

The Hungary aficionados in Sopron must have been bilingual (or even went native) otherwise it wouldn't make much sense to join Hungary.
Considering that the Hungarian language is one of the hardest to learn on this planet it had to be very popular there and used every day.

Peter89
Member
Posts: 1009
Joined: 28 Aug 2018 05:52
Location: Spain

Re: Without the Fall of France, do you think that Hungary eventually ends up losing its territorial gains from 1938-1939

Post by Peter89 » 14 Jun 2021 12:50

wm wrote:
13 Jun 2021 10:25
The Hungary aficionados in Sopron must have been bilingual (or even went native) otherwise it wouldn't make much sense to join Hungary.
Considering that the Hungarian language is one of the hardest to learn on this planet it had to be very popular there and used every day.
We do not contradict each other necessarily.

Just take a look at the ethnic composition of Kassa in 1910 and 1930, then again in 1941.
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

Return to “Minor Axis Nations”