DrG wrote: ↑22 Mar 2021 16:38
I am merely lurking to this thread, having little to add to this topic (even though I would suggest this article about the Hungarian almost-armistice in September 1943
https://www.jstor.org/stable/42555310 to those interested), besides recalling that Hungary has no natural defences from an invasion coming from Germany and that the Germans were not willing to leave its territory, unlike the strategic retreats that they had planned and implemented from the Balkans and Finland in 1944.
There was no "almost-armistice". What the Kállay-government tried to do was powerless, clueless and ultimately, fruitless.
DrG wrote: ↑22 Mar 2021 16:38
At the same time, the passage that I quote at the end of this message looks like an attempt of apology of communism,
No, it's not. My point was that the communist takeover was 1. inevitable, 2. not as bad as Horthy and his social class percieved. I mean not as bad for the nation, bad enough for themselves, indeed.
DrG wrote: ↑22 Mar 2021 16:38
therefore I would like to recall that the Hungarian GDP per capita was (source: Maddison Project):
- 1929: 80.73% of the Italian and 94.58% of the Spanish;
- 1939: 86.24% of the Italian and 156.81% of the Spanish;
- 1949: 72.32% of the Italian and 109.23% of the Spanish;
- 1959: 61.62% of the Italian and 109.20% of the Spanish;
- 1969: 52.92% of the Italian and 86.70% of the Spanish;
- 1979: 49.14% of the Italian and 72.83% of the Spanish;
- 1989: 43.23% of the Italian and 59.93% of the Spanish.
This is completely irrelevant and misleading for many reasons.
First of all, the dates you chose are misleading. In the years before 1929, the Hungarian economy underwent a major reconsitution and consolidation process after the Bethlen-Peyer pact. Meaning, the upper classes had to invest into the country just in order to keep it running, and partially to replace to industrial losses as a result of the Trianon treaty. As a result of the crisis, the GDPpc levels did not reach the 1929 number until 1935. Then again the 1939 number is misleading, also for many reasons. For starters, I don't know if the territorial gains were included in this number or not (accorinding to the population count: not), but what I know for sure is that the regained territories, making up about half the size of the country in both terms of land and population, boosted the "1937 economy" a great time. Also, the Darányi-terv was on its way, again an attempt to draw money from the ruling class to the higher function of the country. Mostly to fuel the war machine.
It doesn't matter however, if you choose to neglect the cycles and events of the Hungarian economy (I can recommend you short books about it), the point is that the Horthy regime took over the governing of the country with 2724 GDPpc and left the country in ruins with 2743 GDPpc, according to your own source. That is quite a big zero, and given that Hungary lost a million men, its independence and all its hope to regain any of the Hungarian-majority areas in the Carpathian basin, I simply do not understand, why did you even cite this source?
I'll skip the part where I'd go into details why is it incorrect to come up with Spain's 1939 GDPpc data and stuff like that. I think you know it yourself.
The point is that it is totally wrong to compare countries which had colonies (sic!!), multiple times of the population, substantially different economic history, essentially different access to raw materials, domestic market, etc. Spain and Italy cannot be used as benchmarks for the economic development of Hungary. Hungary can be compared with Czechoslovakia and Poland, and to a lesser extent Romania and Yugoslavia, because these countries had more or less the same economic framework, size, history, etc.
Okay so let's get back to the topic. Second.
During the Horthy-era, the cumulative and average economic growth in Hungary was
zero. Although it would not be fair to leave out the destruction of the war, the peak of this period was in 1942 with 4372 GDPpc, that means a cumulative growth of 1648 GDPpc (62.3%) in 23 years. On average, 72 (2.7%) / year.
The communists took over in 1949 August 20 with a GDPpc of 3752. After 23 years, the GDPpc was 8505, meaning a cumulative growth of 4753 GDPpc (127%), and an average growth of 207 (5.5%) / year.
During the whole communism in Hungary, the economy grew steadily, reaching 11,003 GDPpc when they've left power in 1989, thus achieving a cumulative growth of 7251(193%) GDPpc over 40 years, and an average growth of 181 (4.8%) per year.
Thus, the communist era of Hungary was about 80% more economically effective than the Horthy era, not counting the destruction of the world war. Also, during the communist era, about 2500-3000 men lost their lives in war, making it two-three hundred times less bloody than the Horthy era.
DrG wrote: ↑22 Mar 2021 16:38
So much for the "golden age"...
Yup.
DrG wrote: ↑22 Mar 2021 16:38
Then, of course, Communism surely reduced the Gini index, but I have my doubts
How about hard facts instead of doubts? Would you like to read about it?
DrG wrote: ↑22 Mar 2021 16:38
(and apparently it's a doubt shared by Hungarians too, given their political attitude)
I don't understand this one. The Hungarians' political attitude is based on the experience of the 1956-1989 system, spiced up with newborn nationalism.
DrG wrote: ↑22 Mar 2021 16:38
that equality in poverty is perceived as preferable to a certain disequality in well-being.
After the system change, the "democracy and capitalism" took over, over one million people lost their jobs, most of them never recovered. In the first 23 years, between 1989 (11,003) and 2012 (20,631), the GDPpc change was a cumulative 9628 (87.5%), or in other words, a yearly 419 GDPpc growth (3.8%).
Thus, the first 23 years of "democracy and capitalism" was not nearly as successful in economic terms as the first 23 years of "communism", despite the fact that the system change did not destroyed the country's industrial assets or population.
I for one do no believe that the GDP is the sole and ultimate indicator of a nation's well-being, but you came up with this source. Btw you can use any other sources, the numbers might differ a bit, but the picture is the same.
We might also dig deeper into the transversal analysis after the longitudinal one.
In other words, how did Hungary fare in the respective periods compared to its regional competitors?
Hungary
1920-1937 cumulative 1329 (49%) average 74 (2.7%) / year
1949-1989 cumulative 7251(193%) average 181 (4.8%) / year
1989-2012 cumulative 9628 (87.5%) average 419 (3.8%) / year
Czechoslovakia
1920-1937 cumulative 1513 (49%) average 84 (2.7%) / year
1949-1989 cumulative 8781 (169%) average 220 (4.2%) / year
Czechia
1989-2012 cumulative 12447 (89%) average 541 (3.86%) / year
Slovakia
1989-2012 cumulative 10082 (79%) average 438 (3.44%) / year
Poland
1920-1937 cumulative 52 (0%) average 1 (0%) / year
1949-1989 cumulative 5490 (151%) average 137 (3.8%) / year
1989-2012 cumulative 13128 (245%) average 571 (6.3%) / year
Romania
1920-1937 cumulative 252 (54%) average 14 (3%)
1949-1989 cumulative 4879 (459%) average 122 (11.47%)
1989-2012 cumulative 11232 (189%) average 488 (8%)
Yugoslavia
1920-1937 cumulative 355 (23.5%) average 20 (1.3%)
1949-1989 cumulative 7424 (301%) average 186 (7.5%)
Slovenia
1989-2012 cumulative 5415 (27%) average 235 (1.2%)
The picture is clear: by and large, Hungary was only able to outgrow its regional competitors in the communist era.
Also, it is worth to mention for the "Golden Age" argument, that at the end of the communist era (1989), the region looked like this:
1. Czechia 14,027
2. Slovakia 12,734
3. Hungary 11,003
4. Yugoslavia 9887
- Slovenia 19,837
- Croatia 13,959
- Serbia 10,963
5. Poland 9060
6. Romania 5942
After the system change (2018):
1. Czechia 30,749
2. Poland 27,455
3. Slovakia 27,076
4. Hungary 25,623
5. Romania 20,126
6. (Former Yugoslavia 16,558)
- Slovenia 29,245
- Croatia 22,012
- Serbia 14,124
Long story short, Hungary is on the losing track after the system change, and its regional competitors outgrew it substantially.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."