Why did Germany lose World War II?

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Jon G.
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Re: Why did Germany lose World War II?

#991

Post by Jon G. » 24 Aug 2010, 18:43

Guaporense wrote: The per worker productivity in the munitions industries in 1944, using Goldsmith munitions production data in workforce employed per year, as computed in Harrison, the Economics of WW2, would be:

US - 3,400 dollars
Germany - 2,600 dollars
UK - 2,100 dollars
USSR - 1,700 dollars

Germany's industry was the second most productive in the world, at least out of the major powers.
...only if we accept Abelshauser's figures (which can be found in Harrison's anthology), and repeated by Overy, as gospel. At least Tooze has drawn the validity of Overy's conclusions in doubt before. This has been pointed out to you before, for example by me in this post http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 5#p1438915 why do you simply restate figures which have been contested in other threads?

Also, I am curious as to how you can arrive at that dollar figure for the Soviets.

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Re: Why did Germany lose World War II?

#992

Post by ljadw » 24 Aug 2010, 18:54

it is impossible to arrive at a $ figur for the Soviets(the Rouble was not convertible ),unless one is giving an arbitrary $ value on the Rouble,to prove what one is willing to prove .Some creative use of the figures . 8-)


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Re: Why did Germany lose World War II?

#993

Post by LWD » 24 Aug 2010, 19:25

Well it might be possible to arrive at a dollar equivalant by normalizing vs a number of commodities. One big problem of course would be costing labor.

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Re: Why did Germany lose World War II?

#994

Post by Guaporense » 27 Aug 2010, 00:36

Jon G. wrote:
Guaporense wrote: The per worker productivity in the munitions industries in 1944, using Goldsmith munitions production data in workforce employed per year, as computed in Harrison, the Economics of WW2, would be:

US - 3,400 dollars
Germany - 2,600 dollars
UK - 2,100 dollars
USSR - 1,700 dollars

Germany's industry was the second most productive in the world, at least out of the major powers.
...only if we accept Abelshauser's figures (which can be found in Harrison's anthology), and repeated by Overy, as gospel. At least Tooze has drawn the validity of Overy's conclusions in doubt before. This has been pointed out to you before, for example by me in this post http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 5#p1438915 why do you simply restate figures which have been contested in other threads?
I haven't used Abelshauser's figures for calculating these numbers. I have used Goldsmith's 1946 estimates of total munitions production and total employment in the munitions industry as second to Mark Harrison estimates for the USSR (using the British classification system), US, Germany and UK.

Actually, I think that these figures understate the German productivity and overstate the Soviet productivity. That's because they assumed that German total war production was roughly of the same size as the USSR's (it was a bit higher actually).

Also, about the increase in productivity of German war production: Yes, it was real. Tooze claims it was a statistical illusion, but them his shows that the time taken to produce a Me-109 airframe declined from 7,000 hours to 2,000 hours. It was natural: British and American productivity increased as well.
Also, I am curious as to how you can arrive at that dollar figure for the Soviets.
I have divided Goldsmith's estimate (with was 16 billion dollars) by the labor force employed in war production (9.5 million). Goldsmith has made some interesting dollar estimates for everything, including the GDP of the Roman Empire.

Anyway, the USSR used the Ruble and had quite precise figures for the valued added by the munitions industry. Also, the ruble had a exchange rate with the dollar before the war. Goldsmith compared the expenditures on terms of rubles and converted to dollars using the pre war exchange rates, while he also compared the production of aircraft and warships. He then weighted everything and made some educated guesses in total war production in terms of dollars.
"In tactics, as in strategy, superiority in numbers is the most common element of victory." - Carl von Clausewitz

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Re: Why did Germany lose World War II?

#995

Post by Guaporense » 27 Aug 2010, 01:06

bf109 emil wrote:
The US industrial worker was not twice as productive than the German worker. It was more productive at the time (the most productive in the world, out of the major powers), but not twice as productive as the German.
sure it was as the majority of workers where not German but slave laborers forced to work for the Reich.
These were included. The productivity of the German workers was higher than 2,600 dollars, since forced laborers are included in this estimate and they lower the average.

I think that you think that the 2,600 dollars number refers to the production of Germans+foreign labor divided by the number of German workers? No, it refers to the production in Germany divided by the total number of workers (slaves and free men, foreigners and locals).
Germany's industry was the second most productive in the world, at least out of the major powers.
but it wasn't German's industry was it now...
Today Germany's industry is perhaps more productive than the American. And the Japanese industry is more productive than both.

In WW2, the German industry was less productive than the American, and the Japanese industry was less productive than the German industry. In other words, the contrary of today!
-what % of looted capital was incorporated into a mythological Nazi economy?
Little: Germany started the war with excess factory capacity and never used all their factory capacity during the entire war.
-what % of labor was forced labor?
Forced labor is less productive than voluntary labor.
-what % of machine tools came from other countries and sent back to the Reich?
Germany started the war with more machine tools than the US. They produced at a rate 3 times higher than US and probably never imported a single one, but exported them to the rest of Europe.
-what % of items made in factories of conquered countries are you including into an Alleged German economy?
Well, I am not totally sure that Goldmith's estimate includes only German production or the production of Nazi Europe. The fact is that 90% of the total war production of Nazi Europe was German (in terms of aircraft, Germany made 40,000 while the rest of Europe made 3,300 in 1944).
"In tactics, as in strategy, superiority in numbers is the most common element of victory." - Carl von Clausewitz

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Re: Why did Germany lose World War II?

#996

Post by Guaporense » 27 Aug 2010, 02:27

The_Enigma wrote:
Guaporense wrote:It is a myth that the Allies weren't prepared to war in 1939-1940, they mobilized to a greater degree than Germany in some cases (Belgium and France mobilized a greater proportion of their population into the armed forces than Germany!).
So once again you are talking BS, the western powers were not ready for war - ecnomically, politically, socially, or military. Just because they mobilised a shed load of people on the reserve payroll or opened the doors to new recruits does not equal ready for war ... unlike the German military that had spent most of the 30s working towards that goal.
The German military was not ready for war in 1939, not in the sense that you use it. Most of the German divisions weren't fully trained in 1940 and they had to use training tanks in 1940.

The Allies had more tanks, more planes and more artillery pieces in 1940, as well as more soldiers. They didn't lost because they were caught off-guard. But because they didn't have the required numerical superiority to beat Germany (usually a 3 to 1 numerical superiority is required).

In 1940 the Allies had 144 divisions, Germany had 141 divisions. The Allies had 13,974 guns, Germany had 7,378 guns, the Allies had 3,383 tanks, Germany had 2,445 tanks. The Allies had 4,469 combat aircraft while Germany had 3,578 combat aircraft.

The victory of 1940 was not the result of superiority in firepower or numbers, but the result of a better fighting organization.

Of course, the Allies didn't mobilize fully their population by 1940, BUT neither did Germany. Of course, German weapons were better and newer than Allied weapons, since Germany's munitions were produced 6-7 years before while some French tanks had over 20 years.

But, you will never find a situation were both sides had exactly equal levels of preparation! The Battle of France in 1940 was perhaps the closest situation in the 20th century where two sides confronted each other with similar levels of technology, numbers, etc. In all other battles of WW2 the discrepancy of numbers and technology was always very high.

Take Normandy, 1944, the Germans were prepared by June as compared to the Allies? Of course not. They only send the scraps of the German Army that they could find outside of the eastern front agaisnt an enemy that was preparing itself for 4 years.
Quite a bit of this has already been explained to you yet you seem intent on just ignoring it and looking at figures of mobilisation and making general sweeping statements. I think it would better your cause to go do some reading on the hows and whys the war broke out, and prehaps looking to some titles that deal with the various armies you speak of.
Well, the fact is that your "arguments" are not convincing. Simply because you fail to understand that ready for war doesn't equal the position of the US in 1944.

Germany's air force, for example, had only 5,000 planes in May 1940. Sure, it was the largest airforce in the world, but smaller than the combined airforces of Britain and France. It was also much smaller than what Germany could have fielded given 4 years of total war mobilization without losses (like the US by 1944).
See the BRUTAL difference?
Yes, you still ignore evidence and posts made that actually contrict everything you say :wink:[/quote]

I don't. I read them and think about it. However, my opinion on the subject cannot be molded like clay, the way you want.

It is pointless argue with you about anything related to the relative fighting power of the German army compared to the Allies. Since it offends your British sensibilities the statement that your country's armed forces weren't comparable in terms of effectiveness to the Germans.

Nationalism is a type of mental disease:

I noticed that people that advocate the notion that the Wehrmacht wasn't superior, that it was a myth, are always Anglo Saxons (for example, JonS, Rich, Enigma, LWD, are Anglo Saxons), while the people that defend the opposite, are from other countries, most of the time (some Russians also side with the Anglo Saxons). Germans rarely defend the fighting qualities of their own army during WW2, due to the fact that it is extremely politically incorrect to defend any Nazi institution. The people that usually defend the notion of combat superiority of the Wehrmacht are usually European, from neutral nations, or Latin American, Asian, etc.

The only American that I have read that defended the notion of wehrmacht higher fighting power is Dupuy. Of course, among academics the concept of Wehrmacht military superiority are analyzed with less bias than Internet dudes.

Usually, British and Americans are very proud of their victory in WW2 and consider it as something inevitable. They always stress the fact that the Western Allies had greater industrial production than Germany, while ignoring the rest of the factors (from the eastern front, to the lack of manpower, the eastern front, the lack of natural resources, the eastern front, the fighting power of the Wehrmacht, and, did I mention the eastern front?).

Usually they don't say that the Western Allies had better soldiers, but that they were equal and superior technology and numbers of equipment (though in terms of manpower they usually neglect the numerical superiority). It is obviously much less impressive to win the war through the capacity to throw more lives away than your enemy. So, the numerical superiority in manpower is neglected while the numerical superiority in equipment is exalted. The fact is that both go hand to hand, since equipment is effectively manpower employed in industry and soldiers are needed to use the equipment.
"In tactics, as in strategy, superiority in numbers is the most common element of victory." - Carl von Clausewitz

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Re: Why did Germany lose World War II?

#997

Post by bf109 emil » 27 Aug 2010, 03:03

Today Germany's industry is perhaps more productive than the American. And the Japanese industry is more productive than both.

In WW2, the German industry was less productive than the American, and the Japanese industry was less productive than the German industry. In other words, the contrary of today!
Perhaps, but as the thread remains why germany lose WW2, it can be directly related to Germany having insufficient labor, resources and thus in order to make munitions it required and sought slave labor, the likes of which without, we would not have had but a meagre token of German munitions being produced after 1942.
Forced labor is less productive than voluntary labor.
Very good Einstein, but without voluntary labor, which the Reich was short of, forced, slave and POW labor was necessary and without it as shown earlier their are no Luftwaffe aircraft as forced and slave labor made up over a % of workers needed to produce these airplanes, unless Germany has a magic way of flying a 70% complete plane, slave labor was necessary...or fill the petrol tanks of planes and tanks without slave labor producing the factories and synthetic fuel used in these partially completed airplanes..
Germany started the war with more machine tools than the US. They produced at a rate 3 times higher than US and probably never imported a single one, but exported them to the rest of Europe.
which adds to the pitiless of Germany as they never had the ability to utilize these machine tools and thus as the war expanded...imagine enter a war with a huge advantage over the USA and simply become dominated by the USA in terms of production, output, munitions, weapons, planes tanks, ships etc. as you argued earlier that bombing had no effect over Germany's war production, we have to simply conclude German stupidity resulted in their falling behind in the arms race to a superior economy and industry having entered with an 'Germany started the war with more machine tools than the US' as you quoted :lol: :lol:
Well, I am not totally sure that Goldmith's estimate includes only German production or the production of Nazi Europe. The fact is that 90% of the total war production of Nazi Europe was German (in terms of aircraft, Germany made 40,000 while the rest of Europe made 3,300 in 1944).
Interesting as over 20% of workers where slave workers, not being German, hence simple math shows that 40,000 x 20% =8,000 non German made planes!

but again here are the figures for forced labor and foreign workers for each factory producing airplanes for the Reich...please not the % of NON-GERMAN workers show that a high percent of German claimed airplanes where simply not German made.

also please not on the next index, how USA superior ability to produce macnine tools (which Guaparenese has shown was behind those in Germany) had now increased through superior economic skills, labor and ability to now surpass on any scale Germany could fathom about producing some years earlier, having owned more machine tools....sourcehttp://orbat.com/site/sturmvogel/exhibit.html#exiv

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Re: Why did Germany lose World War II?

#998

Post by Guaporense » 27 Aug 2010, 03:11

RichTO90 wrote:
The Allies took ~250 days to liberate all these regions (even at the battle of the bulge, 7 months after the Allied invasion, most of Holland was in German hands) facing 800,000 German troops.
And to make comparison's using fictitous numbers that have been corrected for you numerous times? :roll:
Front in mid June, 1944:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... tAtlas.jpg

200 days later:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... tAtlas.jpg

The Allies liberated France and Belgium and still haven't liberated Netherlands. While Germany conquered the 3 countries in 42 days (20% of the time the Allies took to liberate less).
"In tactics, as in strategy, superiority in numbers is the most common element of victory." - Carl von Clausewitz

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Re: Why did Germany lose World War II?

#999

Post by bf109 emil » 27 Aug 2010, 03:20

The Allies liberated France and Belgium and still haven't liberated Netherlands. While Germany conquered the 3 countries in 42 days (20% of the time the Allies took to liberate less).
but liberating a country does not mean winning the war, but it does mean less casualties, Germany having to have troops remain inactive and in a fruitless role in order to squat on lands and territories not viable in the defense of the Reich and not helping Germany in one least bit in defense of the Reich.... :lol: :lol:

I think a lot of Germans remained squatting on lands in Norway, Guernsey, Jersey, and Holland...how did the war end up for their families, friends , towns, cities, infrastructure etc. the whole time, needlessly sitting idle and in an unproductive role serving the Reich, while superior allied forces met little resistance? IMHO they blessed the chance to remain useless in the war and allow themselves the chance to live, while fellow countrymen where either KIA, wounded or surrendering en-masse.

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Re: Why did Germany lose World War II?

#1000

Post by RichTO90 » 27 Aug 2010, 03:55

Guaporense wrote:
RichTO90 wrote:And to make comparison's using fictitous numbers that have been corrected for you numerous times? :roll:
Front in mid June, 1944:
Wrong number dude, good to see you still know how to pay attention. :roll: :P
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Re: Why did Germany lose World War II?

#1001

Post by nebelwerferXXX » 27 Aug 2010, 04:26

In my own point of view only.
1) Because Hitler declared war on the United States...
2) Because of Lend-Lease deliveries to UK and for USSR (including 15,417,001 pairs of Army boots)
3) Because of the USA spending of...
---$ 444,540,000,000,000 for Aeroplanes
---$ 407,340,000,000,000 for Ships
---$ 107,880,000,000,000 for Guns
---$ 197,160,000,000,000 for Ammunition
---$ 215,760,000,000,000 for Vehicles, Tanks etc.
---$ 124,620,000,000,000 for Means of communication
---$ 38,130,000,000,000 for Other equipment supplies
4) Because of the used of...
---50,000 Sherman tanks
---40,000 M3 White half-tracks
---650,000 jeeps
---750,000 6 x 6 trucks
---4,200,000 M1 'Garand' rifles
---1,383,000 Thompson sub machine guns
5) Because of the best commanders that USA have got, like Patton and Bradley.
6) Because of the used of 1,000-plane raids against Germany.

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Re: Why did Germany lose World War II?

#1002

Post by ljadw » 27 Aug 2010, 08:57

nebelwerferXXX wrote:In my own point of view only.
1) Because Hitler declared war on the United States...
2) Because of Lend-Lease deliveries to UK and for USSR (including 15,417,001 pairs of Army boots)
3) Because of the USA spending of...
---$ 444,540,000,000,000 for Aeroplanes
---$ 407,340,000,000,000 for Ships
---$ 107,880,000,000,000 for Guns
---$ 197,160,000,000,000 for Ammunition
---$ 215,760,000,000,000 for Vehicles, Tanks etc.
---$ 124,620,000,000,000 for Means of communication
---$ 38,130,000,000,000 for Other equipment supplies
4) Because of the used of...
---50,000 Sherman tanks
---40,000 M3 White half-tracks
---650,000 jeeps
---750,000 6 x 6 trucks
---4,200,000 M1 'Garand' rifles
---1,383,000 Thompson sub machine guns
5) Because of the best commanders that USA have got, like Patton and Bradley.
your point 3 is worthless :saying that the US were spending X million $ proves nothing;ex :407 milion for ships ,it is useless to compare this with the German spending on ships (Germany beying a land power )
your point 4 :1.383 million sub machine guns:in 1944 and 1945,the SU produced 2 .8 million machine guns and machine pistols ,thus ?
your point 5 :saying that Germany lost the war because of the genious of Bradley and Patton,is ....very superficial :lol:

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Re: Why did Germany lose World War II?

#1003

Post by nebelwerferXXX » 27 Aug 2010, 09:36

ljadw wrote:
nebelwerferXXX wrote:In my own point of view only.
1) Because Hitler declared war on the United States...
2) Because of Lend-Lease deliveries to UK and for USSR (including 15,417,001 pairs of Army boots)
3) Because of the USA spending of...
---$ 444,540,000,000,000 for Aeroplanes
---$ 407,340,000,000,000 for Ships
---$ 107,880,000,000,000 for Guns
---$ 197,160,000,000,000 for Ammunition
---$ 215,760,000,000,000 for Vehicles, Tanks etc.
---$ 124,620,000,000,000 for Means of communication
---$ 38,130,000,000,000 for Other equipment supplies
4) Because of the used of...
---50,000 Sherman tanks
---40,000 M3 White half-tracks
---650,000 jeeps
---750,000 6 x 6 trucks
---4,200,000 M1 'Garand' rifles
---1,383,000 Thompson sub machine guns
5) Because of the best commanders that USA have got, like Patton and Bradley.


your point 3 is worthless: saying that the US were spending X million $ proves nothing; ex : $ 407.34- trillion for ships ,it is useless to compare this with the German spending on ships (Germany being a land power )
your point 4: 1,383,000 sub machine guns: in 1944 and 1945, the SU produced 2.8 million machine guns and machine pistols, thus?
your point 5: saying that Germany lost the war because of the genius of Bradley and Patton, is....very superficial :lol:
7) Germany and the USSR were lucky enough that they were not bombed with the '2 Atomic Bombs' that the US had in 1945...thanks
Last edited by nebelwerferXXX on 28 Aug 2010, 00:21, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Why did Germany lose World War II?

#1004

Post by Jon G. » 27 Aug 2010, 10:02

Guaporense wrote: I haven't used Abelshauser's figures for calculating these numbers.
I didn't suggest that you did. I just take continued issue with your claims re German production efficiency - a claim which you first canvassed by making reference to Abelshauser's figures.
I have used Goldsmith's 1946 estimates of total munitions production and total employment in the munitions industry as second to Mark Harrison estimates for the USSR (using the British classification system), US, Germany and UK.
I note your preference for using old secondary sources over more up-to-date analysis.

That aside, you do note that Goldsmith substantially bases his numbers for German munitions production on the very same USSBS figures which you yourself take issue with?
Actually, I think that these figures understate the German productivity and overstate the Soviet productivity. That's because they assumed that German total war production was roughly of the same size as the USSR's (it was a bit higher actually).
To quote Goldsmith '...Figures for the USSR are derived from published figures on total defense expenditures and scattered information of expenditures on nonmunitions items. They are then adjusted on the assumption of a slight downward trend in munitions prices...'*

How firm conclusions do you think you can base on that? An economist might make a lot out of it (cue frantic arm-waving); to a historian conclusions made on such basis is worth fuck all.
Also, about the increase in productivity of German war production: Yes, it was real.
Prove it :roll:
Tooze claims it was a statistical illusion, but them his shows that the time taken to produce a Me-109 airframe declined from 7,000 hours to 2,000 hours. It was natural: British and American productivity increased as well.
Economies of scale: a concept pionereed in American industry and well known to all WW2 combatants. To the Germans, who selected the Bf-109 as their main fighter precisely because it was so easy to mass produce, it sometimes worked wonders (the Ju-88); sometimes it turned out rather less well (see the Me-210)

I've suggested you read Tooze before. I hope you get round to doing it sometime.


*From Raymond W. Goldsmith The Power of Victory: Munitions Output in World War II, Military Affairs, vol. 10, no. 1 (Spring 1946), pp 72n

It may be an unknown concept to you, but historians - and by extension participants in historical debates - provide precise references for their claims. That way you can check and cross-check their claims for yourself. But what would an Economics student know about that.

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Re: Why did Germany lose World War II?

#1005

Post by mescal » 27 Aug 2010, 11:26

Guaporense wrote:Of course, German weapons were better and newer than Allied weapons, since Germany's munitions were produced 6-7 years before while some French tanks had over 20 years.
Go tell it to a German in his Panzer II who had to face a French B1bis
Guaporense wrote:Take Normandy, 1944, the Germans were prepared by June as compared to the Allies? Of course not. They only send the scraps of the German Army
Like Panzer-Lehr, 2nd PzDiv, 1st SS Pz Div, 2nd SS Pz Div, 9th SS Pz Div, 10th SS Pz Div ?
Guaporense wrote:Well, the fact is that your "arguments" are not convincing.
That's what you say every time you have been proven wrong.
Now, it should be time to realize that when everybody proves you wrong, it's perhaps you who have a problem in the gathering, selection and interpretation of data, and not the rest of the world.
Guaporense wrote:I noticed that people that advocate the notion that the Wehrmacht wasn't superior, that it was a myth, are always Anglo Saxons (for example, JonS, Rich, Enigma, LWD, are Anglo Saxons), while the people that defend the opposite, are from other countries, most of the time (some Russians also side with the Anglo Saxons).
Well, it's perhaps an overly generic inference that you're making here.
The problem is less who proves you wrong and more the fact that you've been proven wrong many times, by many people.

Actually, whatever the objective truth, the way you handle criticism (systematic dismissing) does not help your credibility.


As an illustration, you once more state that
The Allies liberated France and Belgium and still haven't liberated Netherlands. While Germany conquered the 3 countries in 42 days (20% of the time the Allies took to liberate less).
You've already been told (and more than once) that it is not necessarily relevant as a measure of performance.
Yet you just re-state it, as an ultimate proof of your point - whereas the main criticism in this matter is that performance cannot simply be measured as a 'mile of advance per day'.

The bottom line is still the same:
Stats are an incredibly powerful analytical tool, but it's overly complex to use and can very easily be misused.
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