When did Germans know the war was lost?

[CJK1990]

Does anyone know for sure about what time the German public began to realize that the war was lost?

[Svetlana Karlin]

It seems the doubts started to appear among the Wehrmacht soldiers in winter 1942/43 (Battle of Stalingrad).
By summer of 1944 the skepticism about the chances of Germany winning the war became widespread.

Gunther K. Koschorrek wrote in his book, "Blood Red Snow. The Memoirs of a German Soldier on the Eastern Front":

Wounded in December 1942, the author was put on a hospital train together with several soldiers flown out of the encircled 6th Army at Stalingrad.

"One soldier with a bandage round his head, and who only can see out of one eye, ridicules the latest Army radio report, which plays down the disaster in Stalingrad and refers to the defeat of the Sixth Army in a highly stylised propaganda report about the willingness of the German soldier to make a heroic stand."

Still, the author noted that the few acquaintances back home in Insterbrug, who questioned him about the Eastern Front, did not believe the information about the dampening morale of the German troops there.

The other memoir, "A Mind in Prison" by Bruno Manz, stated that in June 1944 the public was already losing faith in the Nazi leadership:

The author was on a home leave in June 1944. He served in Finland, which was a relatively quiet area compared to the the Eastern front.

"As I was reentering my railcar, I overheard the conversation of two officers. They used an expression I had never heard before, but would hear with increasing frequency in the months ahead, particularly after the war. It was Gröfaz, a sardonic acronym for Grösser Feldherr aller Zeiten (greatest military genius of all times). At the time I did not understand its meaning, much less its ridicule, but I had the uneasy feeling that it was an unflattering nickname for Hitler. After the war I learned that it was used mainly by disillusioned officers and other people, who as far as information was concerned, were more privileged than I was."

In the same chapter the author noted that his civilian father, an eager Nazi, was depressed about the war developments, but still hoped for the situation to reverse itself.

Based on this and other wartime memoirs and personal accounts, it seems that doubts about the war outcome were likely to start developing after the Battle of Stalingrad. When Allies landed in Normandy, the disappointment with Hitler's leadership became common.

[Piotr Kapuscinski]

Hitler understood this quite late... :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2fl-sHUwrc

But most of German commanders probably knew it yet in 1943 (and all of them in the Summer of 1944).

While civilians - probably when they saw first Soviet troops. Before that they believed in propaganda.

[gstoll]

I believe it may have been sooner than this. I would say though that the German public only realised late into the war when the cities were being bombarded and the Russians were on their doorstep. However, many of the German officers, who were not directly linked to the fanatical Nazi Party did not think the war could possibly be won if they opened up a Front on the east as well as the west. Although, it may have been more significant after Rommel's inevitable defeat in North Africa- leading into Klaus Von Stauffenberg's attempt at Hitler's life.

It's hard to know exactly....

[Guaporense]

Does anyone know for sure about what time the German public began to realize that the war was lost?

Second to Overy's Why the Allies Won, when they made a poll about it in early 1942, only 30% of the people thought that Germany was going to lose. They made the same poll in early 1944, only 30% thought that Germany was going to win.

So, around the time of Stalingrad and Kursk that most Germans though that the war was lost.

[Guaporense]

While civilians - probably when they saw first Soviet troops. Before that they believed in propaganda.

Most civilians though that the war was lost even before Germany started to lose control over Western Europe. That's because of the tremendous propaganda value of strategic bombing.

[Guaporense]

However, many of the German officers, who were not directly linked to the fanatical Nazi Party did not think the war could possibly be won if they opened up a Front on the east as well as the west.

I wouldn't say that with so many words of certainty.

Manstein, perhaps the best field Marshall of WW2, said that after Stalingrad that Germany could only reach an stalemate.

[Svetlana Karlin]

Second to Overy's Why the Allies Won, when they made a poll about it in early 1942, only 30% of the people thought that Germany was going to lose. They made the same poll in early 1944, only 30% thought that Germany was going to win.

So, around the time of Stalingrad and Kursk that most Germans though that the war was lost.

Personal accounts and memoirs I've read support this. Seems that by 1944 the German public had learned enough from relatives/friends serving on the Eastern front and did not put much faith in the official propaganda anymore. The Allies' bombings did their job, as well.

[alexWong]

Hitler understood this quite late... :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2fl-sHUwrc

But most of German commanders probably knew it yet in 1943 (and all of them in the Summer of 1944).

While civilians - probably when they saw first Soviet troops. Before that they believed in propaganda.

It is funny ( I mean incidental ) that I watched Downfall late last night on Cable TV of Hong Kong in original German sound track but with both English and Chinese subtitles.

[Von Ribentrop]

Does anyone know for sure about what time the German public began to realize that the war was lost?

Second to Overy's Why the Allies Won, when they made a poll about it in early 1942, only 30% of the people thought that Germany was going to lose. They made the same poll in early 1944, only 30% thought that Germany was going to win.

hello, i am interested in the period so i joined the blog.

American newspapers from '41, right after the attack on SU, were of the opinion that the Germans are out on a suicidal mission, an interesting fact not many know about. How comes, the us papers knew so much about the outcome of the war right at the beginning.

[Okyzm]

. How comes, the us papers knew so much about the outcome of the war right at the beginning.

Perhaps they compared the population, industry, GDP of powers Germany attacked and Germany itself.

[JonS]

Overy's Why the Allies Won ... [the Germans] made a poll about it in early 1942, ... They made the same poll in early 1944, ...

Yep, those surveys are the way to go. Anything else is merely anecdotal. I believe they - the surveys - were carried out fairly regularly - 6-monthly, maybe? I'd expect the surveys and results would be available from BAMA, there may be a useful reference to them in Overy's WtAW.

FWIW, there were similar mass-surveys conducted in the UK, for much the same reasons.

[Cat_Bones]

Did they really take polls like that? Seems a little suprising that the regime would do that... after all, they apparently executed people for expressing negative opinions regarding Germany's potential for success... seems strange that they'd solicit potentially negative opinions. Even allowing for anonymity of surveys, I would have imagined that most people stopped on a street and asked the question "will Germany win the war" would be reluctant to say anything other than "yes". But the poll results suggest that this wasn't a concern.

[Okyzm]

Every regime-even totalitarian ones-conducts real surveys besides propaganda. Usually they are secret and for special services eyes only. Sometimes they are even hidden from top leadership in the country out of fear of reaction.

[Rudolph Salvermoser]

I was a member of the German Wehrmacht from 1941 until the end. Believe it or not, we were dumb enough to believe the effective propaganda about the manufacturing of the "Geheimwaffe" (secret weapon) that will bring the final victory for Germany.
My service in the Wehrmacht is described in: http://www.interview6.html