Exactly how many ethnic Germans lived outside of (Germany + Austria) in 1937 in comparison to right now (2016)?

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ColinWright
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Re: Exactly how many ethnic Germans lived outside of (Germany + Austria) in 1937 in comparison to right now (2016)?

#46

Post by ColinWright » 24 Nov 2017, 14:16

Interesting discussion. I've just got a couple of more of less random points to make.

First, as I recall the ethnic frontier between Slavic and German tribes in the Dark Ages more or less ran along the Elbe; obviously an awful lot of 'Germans' must be descended from Germanized Slavs. This isn't to deny the reality or the significance of modern German ethnic identity. It's just to note that any notion of snowy genetic purity must be hopelessly misconceived. Perhaps the inhabitants of Iceland can lay claim to such a status -- not Germans.

Second, ethnic identity can indeed be hazy. In Account Rendered, the author, a young Nazi activist, boarded with a 'German' family in the annexed areas of conquered Poland for a while. She noticed that while the farmer and his wife were supposedly "German,' the wife seemed quite comfortable jawing away in Polish with the kitchen help, while for their part, the 'Polish' maids went about singing German nursery rhymes.

Obviously, all these people might have found it best to decide they were 'German' until the Russians arrived. At that point, it would probably behoove them to decide they were 'Polish' after all. Arguably, both identities would be at least partially accurate. The farmer might 'really' be German, but he was probably genuinely Polish to some extent as well, while his servants had been at least partially Germanized.

The point here is that there are a lot of people more or less on the borderline. Depending on the circumstances, they might be either 'German' or not. I'm reminded of my mother's encounters with Alsatians about seventy years ago. The common expression for 'thank you' back then in that area was 'Merci Vielmas.' Would that be speaking French or German? I also recall someone remarking that as you go from Holland to Germany, it's not like there's a point at which people stop speaking Dutch and start speaking German, but rather, that as one moves east, the 'Dutch' has more and more German in it, until it gets to the point where it would be more accurate to describe what people are speaking as German with quite a bit of Dutch in it.

Ethnic identity isn't a matter of completely segregated categories so much as it is a continuum where at the fringe, one identity shades into another. One actually sees this quite a bit here in the US, where on the one hand, there are obvious Hispanics, while at the other extreme, there are people whom you only realize are Hispanic when you see their last name.-

So we seem to have a figure of about nine million Volksdeutsch at the start of World War Two. It might be as accurate to say there were perhaps seven million definite Germans but a total of about twelve million who could be considered German if one was willing to stretch a point. And indeed, this ambiguity showed up in the variations in official policy. While horrific expulsion policies were pursued in the Warthegau, in West Prussia the Gauleiter found it easier all round if he just declared anyone who wanted to be German to be German. To some extent at least, a German could be whoever you wanted to consider German.

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Re: Exactly how many ethnic Germans lived outside of (Germany + Austria) in 1937 in comparison to right now (2016)?

#47

Post by Pavel Novak » 03 Dec 2017, 01:39

Peter K wrote:Based on % of Germans according to official census closest to 1937, extrapolated to 1937 population size:

Czechoslovakia - 3,54 million
...


This number includes Jews. Czechoslovak 1930 census has this numbers:

Czechoslovak: 9,756.604, tj. 66,24 %
German: 3,318.445, tj. 22,53 %
Hungarian: 719.569, tj. 4,89 %
Rusin: 568.941. tj. 3,86 %
Jews: 204.779, tj. 1,39 %
Poles: 100.322, tj. 0,68 %
Gypsy: 32.857, tj. 0,22 %
Romanian: 14.170, tj. 0,10 %
South Slavic: 6.026, tj. 0,04 %
Other and unknown: 7.823, tj. 0,05 %


Piotr Kapuscinski
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Re: Exactly how many ethnic Germans lived outside of (Germany + Austria) in 1937 in comparison to right now (2016)?

#48

Post by Piotr Kapuscinski » 11 Dec 2017, 10:55

ColinWright wrote:First, as I recall the ethnic frontier between Slavic and German tribes in the Dark Ages more or less ran along the Elbe; obviously an awful lot of 'Germans' must be descended from Germanized Slavs.
I did some genetic research and East Germans are indeed genetically close to West Slavs, and quite far removed from West Germans, which means that they harbor significant amounts of Slavic ancestry (but also West Slavs have some Germanic and Celtic admixtures).

There is still a difference (on average) between East Germans and West Slavs but it correlates well with geography and there is no sharp genetic border like this existing between Slovenes and neighbouring Italians from Friuli and Veneto (see my PCA graph 4. below).

1. East Germans vs. West Slavs, admixture percentages (using K36 - 36 genetic components, but I grouped them):

Image

Sample sizes for West Slavic and East German averages:

Neumark & Posen-Westpreussen - 17
Sachsen - 14 (including 8 from Leipzig)
Pommern and Vorpommern - 8
Sachsen-Anhalt - 2
Mecklenburg - 7
Brandenburg - 15

Czechs - 33 samples

Greater Poland - 24 (including 15 from Poznan)
Upper Silesia - 18
Lusatian Sorbs - 8
Pomerelia (among them Kashubians) - 12
Podlachia (Podlasie) - 26
Podkarpacie (eastern Polish Mountains) - 15
Sudovia (Suwałki Region / Suwalszczyzna) - 3
Mazovia1 - 31 Mazovians from various areas
Mazovia2 - 7 Warsaw samples (Behar 2013 study)
SE-Kresy (Poles from Western Ukraine) - 10
Red Ruthenia, or Lubelskie - 8 (5 from Lublin)
Northern Poland (Kujawsko-Pomorskie) - 11
NE-Kresy (Poles from Vilno-Grodno Regions) - 2

2. PCA superimposed on a map showing pre-war distribution of Poles. DNA correlates quite well with geography:
("Red Ruthenia" are Poles from Lubelskie Voivodeship, "SE-Kresy" are ethnic Poles with ancestry from West Ukraine)

Image

With Lithuanians instead of Danes ("Sudovia" are Poles from Suwałki Region, obviously descended from Polonized Balts):

Image

3. All individual samples (each dot = one individual, as you can see there is some German-Slavic overlapping zone):

Image

Poles plot between Russians-Belarusians and North-East Germans, Czechs between West Ukrainians and Austrians:

Image

4. European PCA, there is a smooth Slavic-German cline, while a visible genetic border between Slovenia and Italy:

Image

5. And this map, it is outdated (physical anthropology - less reliable than genetics) but also quite interesting:

Image

East Prussians also harbor Baltic ancestry from Old Prussians, which is confirmed by their Y-DNA. For example a lot of East Prussian Germans have N1c haplogroup, which is associated with Balts and Finns. They have mostly the specific Prussian (West Baltic) branch of N1c:

https://www.yfull.com/arch-3.15/tree/N-Z16975/

Image

This map shows the distribution of N1c-Z16975, it is based on birthplaces of direct paternal ancestors, so it shows pre-WW2 situation:

Image

BTW, there are currently ongoing Projects aiming at researching the genetic diversity of Europe, including Germany and Poland:

https://www.livingdna.com/en-gb/one-family/research

https://www.livingdna.com/en-gb/one-fam ... ch/germany

https://www.livingdna.com/en-gb/one-fam ... rch/poland

People join regional projects based on birthplaces of their grandparents and great-grandparents, not current place of residence.
There are words which carry the presage of defeat. Defence is such a word. What is the result of an even victorious defence? The next attempt of imposing it to that weaker, defender. The attacker, despite temporary setback, feels the master of situation.

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Re: Exactly how many ethnic Germans lived outside of (Germany + Austria) in 1937 in comparison to right now (2016)?

#49

Post by Piotr Kapuscinski » 11 Dec 2017, 11:23

But for example Russian Mennonites (and probably also most of Volga Germans) don't have any Slavic ancestry.

I guess it is because they came to Eastern Europe very late (Russlandmennoniten came to Russia in 1765-1795 from Northern Rhine area, between the Netherlands and North-West Germany) and did not mix with local populations (unlike Germans from Elbe-Vistula area and East Prussia, who came during the Middle Ages and Germanized many local West Slavic and West Baltic populations). Here are K15 (15 admixtures / components) results of ten Russian Mennonites, showing also to which population they are most genetically similar (very Germanic results):

https://i.imgur.com/9PiynUc.png

As you can see their main component is "North Sea" (while many East Germans score more of "Baltic" than of "North Sea"):

Image

Today many of them live in Latin America: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Mennonite
There are words which carry the presage of defeat. Defence is such a word. What is the result of an even victorious defence? The next attempt of imposing it to that weaker, defender. The attacker, despite temporary setback, feels the master of situation.

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Gorque
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Re: Exactly how many ethnic Germans lived outside of (Germany + Austria) in 1937 in comparison to right now (2016)?

#50

Post by Gorque » 11 Dec 2017, 16:01

Pavel Novak wrote:
Peter K wrote:Based on % of Germans according to official census closest to 1937, extrapolated to 1937 population size:

Czechoslovakia - 3,54 million
...


This number includes Jews. Czechoslovak 1930 census has this numbers:

Czechoslovak: 9,756.604, tj. 66,24 %
German: 3,318.445, tj. 22,53 %
Hungarian: 719.569, tj. 4,89 %
Rusin: 568.941. tj. 3,86 %
Jews: 204.779, tj. 1,39 %
Poles: 100.322, tj. 0,68 %
Gypsy: 32.857, tj. 0,22 %
Romanian: 14.170, tj. 0,10 %
South Slavic: 6.026, tj. 0,04 %
Other and unknown: 7.823, tj. 0,05 %


Hi Pavel:

Is there a breakdown in the 1930 census between the number Czechs and the Slovaks?

Pavel Novak
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Re: Exactly how many ethnic Germans lived outside of (Germany + Austria) in 1937 in comparison to right now (2016)?

#51

Post by Pavel Novak » 13 Dec 2017, 19:16

Unfortunately no. Czechoslovak authorities counted Czechs and Slovak together as there was the ideology of one nation (more or less).

The assumption is that there were 50 % Czechs (around 7.300.000) and 16 % Slovaks (around 2.400.000) in the Republic.

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