I think that once Guderian made his southward turn in September is the point at which the Red Army gained the time it needed. That is why I chose that month as the low point, but I can easily go along with October or November as being the upper end of that time.Qvist wrote:Perhaps it would be more appropriate to attach that judgment to the period October 1941 to November 1942, as the Kiev battles in September were probably the last major fighting in which more or less systematically raised and trained peacetime formations made up a significant part of the soviet formations involved.
Well, another clear tendency at that time was the concentration of assets at higher levels based on need and always keeping in mind the necessity of future operations. My point is that the 1942 losses can be perceived in more than one way. Yes, rifle divisions are receiving less support and fewer men, but at the same time the Stavka is doing its best to put together an effective strategic reserve that will be capable of much more than simply plugging holes. In other words, weaker divisions are being deployed against the German advance while others are being kept in reserve for a counterattack on a large scale. I do not think it is any secret that the counteroffensive at Stalingrad was being planned long before it actually happened.Yes, but the fact that they underwent a learning process does not neccessarily mean they were particularly effective while doing so. If you follow the structure of soviet units through this period (in f.e. Zaloga/Ness' Red Army Handbook, which devotes considerable attention to that), you see that during this period Soviet formations of all types were very weak (by establishement I mean) in all kinds of support elements, from radios and vehicles to artillery pieces. There is also a clear tendency to more smaller (and simpler) formations. On 22 June 41, the RKKKA had 198 Rifle Divisions and 5 Rifle Brigades. On 1 January 1942, it had 389 RDs and 159 RBs, by 1 July 42 425 RDs and 144 RBs.
One can argue, and I am in fact arguing, that the Stavka, after its initial blunder at the beginning of the campaign season, is waiting for the Werhmacht to spread itself thin. The intention was always there and the forces were slowly assembled to make it a reality.
Having said this, the Wehrmacht contributed a great deal to its own eventual defeat by dividing its forces and setting strategic goals beyond its means. This can partially be blamed on a lack of intelligence. The Germans believed they were facing a Red Army on its last legs struggling to put men in the field when in reality they were fighting only the troops that the Stavka deemed necessary to commit.
Yes, but was the Red Army as a whole weaker in mid-1942 than it was in 1941? I am arguing that the recovery from 1941 was already well underway by that time.The biggest contrast is however in motorised and support formations - tank strength is deployed in Tank Brigades and independent Tank batallions, with severaly limited independent support resources. The mechanised brigades so vital for their support do not appear until very late in 1942, and motorised brigades not until spring 1942. More importantly, they lack any higher integrating formations which could contain their various support resources on a more
than ad-hoc basis. Similarly, artillery resources of all types are almost exclusively independent batallions and regiments rather than, as later to a large extent, brigades and divisions. By 1 january 1943 a marked change is already evident, this is not the case by 1 July 1942. During this period it is also generally true that Fronts had much sparser resources with which to support their subordinate formations than they did later, which further aggravated the consequences of the fact that a larger proportion of the forces lacked any real integral resources of that kind.
Firstly, the Germans might have been at their own low point, but they were also, at least initially, restricting their strategic goals to a much more manageable size and were fighting on the southern flank. Until they hit the open spaces closer to Stalingrad they were in a much better position than in 1941 from which to concentrate their efforts.Well, on what do you base the judgment that its quality rose? In the summer battles in 1942 they were beaten at even more disfavorable cost than in the previous year, despite being very considerably stronger, by weaker German forces who were by all accounts of lesser quality than in the preceding year, so that would seem to me somewhat counterintuitive judgment (though of course it depends on what you take as the starting point for comparison). It seems a more reasonable interpretation to me that the numerous steps instigated to rebuild and restructure the RKKA qualitatively and organisationally did not bear clear fruits until late in that year, and that in the mean time they had no other option but to get along with what they had. The "chose to sacrifice lives and space for the strategic reserve that it needed to counterattack", apart from being somewhat questionable as an overall perspective, explains nothing in this regard. The point was not to acquire a strategic reserve - they already had one, which is how they managed to survive the brutal losses taken in the spring and summer. The point is rather that this strategic reserve would not become a prime instrument of victory until organisational and restructuring efforts that were still underway in mid-42 had been completed.
Also, the Soviet winter counteroffensives were extremely costly to a Red Army that was already badly depleted from Barbarossa. A hasty offensive in the spring which played into the hands of a well-planned German offensive put them even more behind the eight ball.
None of this necessarily leads to the conclusion that their is a low point in quality in the RKKA.
In fact, judging by the end result at Stalingrad, something happened in 1942 that did not happen in 1941. Comparing the respective offensives from those 2 years it is blatantly obvious that conditions had changed dramatically. My opinion is that there are two possible factors: German (combined with its allies) weakness or Soviet strength. Both would seem to me to be the case. The Red Army had grown structurally, generated a sizeable and manageable armoured force and developed enough support to sustain an effective offensive over vast distances. The Germans, for their part, had spread themselves thin and bled themselves excessively at Stalingrad.
Yes, but the results are entirely different. Why?If so, then these mistakes must have been fairly consistent, because the exchange of losses is consistently worse in 1942 than in 1941 (though a point of doubt here are the insecurity of the 1941 Soviet data). Also, in 1941 the Red Army was deploying much weaker forces (numerically speaking) and labored initially under exceptional difficulties that were not present in the following year.
Cheers
Paul