Kelvin wrote: ↑10 Oct 2021 14:11
If Soviet loss is 16000 POW during Ishum isthmus and then started pursuit and by Nov 16 took 100000 pow. so maybe they captured 84000 pow in pursuit including capture of Simferopol, Yalta and Feodossia.
The daily HGS reports in T311/R264 for AOK 11 show it taking several thousand prisoners daily during the pursuit across the Crimea, into the Kerch peninsula, and as the defensive perimeter in southwest Crimea collapsed into the Sevastopol corner. I can't tell from the reports which parts of these actions yielded the prisoners. To do so, we'd need PoW tallies for the various corps - XXXXIII AK towards Kerch and LIV / XXX AK's in the southwest.
Nonetheless, there's a clear data pattern to PoW hauls during AOK 11's battle in the Crimea. First the frontal assault on the Perekop Isthmus defenses, lasting roughly Oct 19-25. Here's an OKH map of the situation of the 24th:
11th Army is just on the verge of breaking through the Soviet defenses. PoW hauls during this period average 880/day per HGS's daily reports in T311/R264:
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Oct 19: 1,726 (F1121)
Oct 20: ??
Oct 21: 804 (F1109)
Oct 22: 1,176 + 955 late-registered from 19&20.10 (F1101)
Oct 23: 374 + 450 late-registered from 22.10 (F1095)
Oct 24: 297 + 37 late-registered from 23.10 (F1088)
Oct 25: 544 (F1082)
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Total 19-25.10.41: 6,163
...880 PoW/day
Then there's the pursuit stage beginning on Oct 26. In this stage we see much higher PoW totals averaging 2,882/day:
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Oct 26: 3,624 (F1076)
Oct 27: 1,530 (F1070)
Oct 28: 1,100 (F1064) - LIV AK report missing
Oct 29: 3,811 (F1055)
Oct 30: 1,642 morning report (F1045) - includes late-registered PoW from 29.10 (probably LIV AK?). Evening report says 3,622 (F1049)
Oct 31: 3,445 (F1042) - notes 149,878 PoW since 22.6.41.
Nov 1: ??
Nov 2: 4,123 (F1030)
Nov 3: 240 (mostly defectors - F1026)
Nov. 4: No report but see 5.11
Nov. 5: 5,543 (F1018) - also 421 late-registered from 3&4.11.41 (F1010)
Nov 6: 3,415 (F1003) + 439 late-reported on the following day ("nachmeldung")
Nov 7: 6,334 (F0996)
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Total 26.10-7.11.41: 37,467
...2,882/day
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Obviously I'm making a judgment call on when the "pursuit" stage ended and the next stage began - the final destruction around Kerch plus the investment around Sevastopol. Here's OKH's map view of the situation on November 8; it seems reasonable to call this the end of the pursuit stage:
Unfortunately I don't have much data on the final stage of this campaign:
Nov 8: 1,003 (F0990)
Nov 9: 1,172 + 1,430 late-registered from 8.11 (F0987)
Nov 10: 1,262 (F0981)
Nov 11-15: No PoW figures mentioned in the HGS daily reports. Maybe in reports of AOK 11 and its constituent corps?
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Given that Manstein's army took ~50k PoW before the final destruction of those forces trapped around Kerch, it's not at all surprising that the total PoW haul would be in the area of 100k.
This exercise is further evidence of something I've been arguing in
another thread: that the 1941 Ostheer took a large amount of its prisoners "tactically" - i.e. they surrendered outside of large operational-level encirclements like Smolensk/Kiev/Vyazma that receive more attention. Per a
study by the Dupuy Institute on capture rates, rapid advances (i.e. pursuits) are correlated with up to 10x the PoW capture rate of "normal" non-pursuit attacks. As expected, 11th Army captured many more men during the pursuit stage than during its break-in battle.
Finally, another TMP hypothesis is that RKKA's morale - as evidence by its willingness to surrender "tactically" - was at a low point in October/November 1941. In the other thread I've put together that argument regarding RKKA forces defending Moscow, who appear to have surrendered tactically at anomalous rates even compared to the rest of the WW2 RKKA (whose surrender rate was anomalous). Here in the Crimean campaign we see 11th Army taking ~50k PoW "tactically" - that is absent operational conditions (encirclement, being trapped on a small peninsula) in which most forces would eventually surrender.
What was the strength of RKKA forces in this battle? EDIT- Krivosheev says 235k initially. Approximately 1 in 5 Crimean defenders surrendered tactically over a mere three weeks. That's an obviously catastrophic rate of surrender, had it persisted in time and space across the front.
Again, I suspect that RKKA was dangerously close to a complete morale collapse after the disasters of September-October 1941. Luckily the Germans had sabotaged themselves by planning for the campaign to be over by this point. As a result, their logistics and replacement stocks (men and material) precluded delivering what might have been shattering additional blows.
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TMP Bookmark: Crimea 1941 and PoW rates