Was the Soviet Union preparing to attack Germany?

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Mait
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Was the Soviet Union preparing to attack Germany?

#1

Post by Mait » 11 Jul 2002, 22:49

A question to the forum: Was Soviet Union preparing for the attack on Germany? I would like to have a discussion here - no simple no or yes (please)...

Best Regards,

Mait.

Oswald Mosley
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#2

Post by Oswald Mosley » 12 Jul 2002, 00:18

This has been discussed before at length. There is some evidence, as presented by the Soviet writer Victor Suvorov, that Stalin was indeed planning an assault on Germany, but there is also a lot of evidence to the contrary. Basically, there is no clear answer to your question. I am of the opinion that Stalin did not wish to invade Germany until it had been sufficiently weakened to the extent of not being able to resist much; Stalin was no adventurer.


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HaEn
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Hit and Stal

#3

Post by HaEn » 12 Jul 2002, 00:35

Oswald Mosley wrote:This has been discussed before at length. There is some evidence, as presented by the Soviet writer Victor Suvorov, that Stalin was indeed planning an assault on Germany, but there is also a lot of evidence to the contrary. Basically, there is no clear answer to your question. I am of the opinion that Stalin did not wish to invade Germany until it had been sufficiently weakened to the extent of not being able to resist much; Stalin was no adventurer.
I quess we never will know for sure, either way. For every document that is "found" supporting one theory, there is another supporting the contrary. We could ask them via a "channeler" :wink: , I think both are in the hot tub somewhere, so they may even still argue together. :roll:
As more documents get unclasified, we might find out more. For the time being I think that BOTH had ambtions to wipe each other out. HN.

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#4

Post by Caldric » 12 Jul 2002, 09:04

I agree with Oswald, Stalin would never take risk of that magnitude. I do however think he was hoping for the "West" to weaken itself with war and then enter when he could get the most gain with little work. It would fit his character a bit more, Poland is a prime example. After Finland showed the prowess of the Red Army he was under no delusion's of the capabilities of his military. Stalin was many things but he was not a fool, to invade Germany would have brought the U.S./U.K. in direct confrontation with their fear of a Red Worldwide Revolution. I have little doubt where the Brits and American's would send their aid, nor would I doubt that Stalin was well aware of that.

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#5

Post by Xenon » 12 Jul 2002, 10:33

Caldric wrote:I agree with Oswald, Stalin would never take risk of that magnitude. I do however think he was hoping for the "West" to weaken itself with war and then enter when he could get the most gain with little work. It would fit his character a bit more, Poland is a prime example. After Finland showed the prowess of the Red Army he was under no delusion's of the capabilities of his military. Stalin was many things but he was not a fool, to invade Germany would have brought the U.S./U.K. in direct confrontation with their fear of a Red Worldwide Revolution. I have little doubt where the Brits and American's would send their aid, nor would I doubt that Stalin was well aware of that.

Wo das Aas liegt, sammeln sich die Geier...

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#6

Post by Caldric » 12 Jul 2002, 11:07

Wo das Aas liegt, sammeln sich die Geier...
If I understand it right, then yes the vultures are always near... :)

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#7

Post by Reigo » 12 Jul 2002, 16:21

Stalin was many things but he was not a fool, to invade Germany would have brought the U.S./U.K. in direct confrontation with their fear of a Red Worldwide Revolution.
Actually, in 1941, UK was very much hoping that USSR would enter in war against Germany. On 11th April 1941 Cripps (the UK representer in Moscow) made proposal that SU would give direct military help to the enemies of Germany. It's true that Stalin was afraid that UK and Germany would achieve a deal. Especially nervous was Kreml because of the Hess' flight to England (10th May 1941). This indicates that Moscow wasn't interested in wars end in Europe. But their suspicions were dispelled after Hess' failure and the fact that war continued (German landing on Crete started on 20th May). On 10th June Moscow informed London that there are no negotiations between Berlin and Moscow. On the same day England promised her help to Soviet Union against Germany. On 13th June Eden said to Sovied ambassador in London that if soon there will start a war between Germany and SU, then UK is ready to cooperate fully with her aviation in Near-East, to send a military-mission to Moscow and to cooperate economically.

The Soviet-British cooperation was feared by Hitler already in July 1940. On 13th July he said that "the hope of England are Russia and America. If hopes for Russia collapse, then also America will distant herself from England, because the defeat of Russia will result unbelievable strenghtening of Japan in East-Asia ... if Russia will be crushed, then England will loose her last hope. Then Germany will rule in Europe and Balcans." On 9th January 1941 Hitler said to his military that "the ruler of Russia, Stalin, is smart and will not act openly against Germany, but it is inevitable that during hard times for Germany he will cause to us a lot of difficulties... He completely understands that after the full victory of Germany Russias situation will be very difficult.
The English are driven by hope that the Russians will interfere. They will stop opposition only then when their last continental hope is crushed... If they are able to fight back, to form 30-40 divisions and if USA and Russia will give them help, then very difficult situation for Germany develops. We can't allow this... Because of that it is now inevitable to crush Russia. Then England will surrender or Germany will continue war against England in very good conditions. The defeat of Russia will allow also Japan to concentrate all of her strenght against USA and this would hold USA back to enter the war ... The defeat of Russia will be great relief for Germany. Then only 40-50 divisions can be left to East, the size of the land army will be decreased and all military industry will be used to produce for air- force and navy...
The giant areas of Russia are containing uncountable treasures. Germany must economically and politically conquer these areas, but not annex them. Then she will possess all possibilities for waging war against continents and then nobody will be able to crush her. When this operation is carried out then Europe will have a breath."

On 20th January 1941 Hitler told to Mussolini:"... Even if america enters the war, she will be no great danger. The greatest threat - the huge colossus of Russia ... When still lives smart and careful Stalin, there are no danger. But when he is gone, then the Jews, who are at the moment pushed to background, can again come to foreground."

On 21th June Hitler informed Mussolini: "Both countries - Soviet Russia and England - are equally interested in Europe which is disintegrated and weakened in long war. Behind these countries stands USA, having a pose of fomenter and noncommittal. After the liquidation of Poland in Soviet Russia appears consistent course of action, which wisely and cautiously but consistently, returns to the old Bolshevik tendency to dilate the Soviet state."

My source is: M. Meltiukhov "Upushchennyi shans Stalina." Moscow, 2002.

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#8

Post by Mait » 12 Jul 2002, 17:20

Have You read "Stalin" by Edvard Radzinski? He has some ideas about Stalin and his politics about European War... He seems to be a proponent of Suvorov but has worked with Soviet top-archives.

Best Regards,

Mait.

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#9

Post by Reigo » 12 Jul 2002, 17:25

Yes I have read it. It's very interesting. But the concept of 1941 in his book are based on Suvorov. And Suvorov isn't worth much as a source.

Regards,

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#10

Post by Roberto » 12 Jul 2002, 18:17

Mait wrote:A question to the forum: Was Soviet Union preparing for the attack on Germany? I would like to have a discussion here - no simple no or yes (please)...

Best Regards,

Mait.
Stalin was an evil fellow without any doubt, and there is also no doubt that he had plans for expansion of the Soviet empire in mind. The question is whether he was the man to risk an all-out military offensive against an enemy known to be well prepared and experienced, and, if so, whether he considered 1941 to be the right moment for that.

Most historians tell us that there is no evidence to there having been such an attack plan in 1941, that on the contrary all evidence points to Stalin having done everything to avoid or at least postpone the outbreak of war and to having even, stubbornly and against all reason, failed to heed warnings that a German attack was imminent. These historians include Alan Bullock, David M. Glantz, Richard Overy, Harrison E. Salisbury, Alexander Werth, Gerd Überschär and, according to the latter, even Russian historians Dimitrij Volkogonov, Vladimir Karpov and Valerij Danilov. The late Volkogonov, son of a man who perished in Stalin's purges, was the most unlikely apologist of Stalin that I can think of.

On the other hand, there is Mr. “Viktor Suvorov” and other enlightened spirits, who have theories in the direction that Stalin was actually planning an all-out attack on Germany in 1941, not as a reaction to the imminence of German aggression but in pursuit of his own plans of conquest. Neither of them apparently produces any evidence that Stalin was on the verge of staging such an all-out attack, or documentation revealing why Stalin planned such an attack, when the decision was taken, what Stalin’s goals were, what he is supposed to have had in mind with the enemy he allegedly intended to conquer, what his plans for German-occupied Europe were in the event of a victorious outcome of the supposed attack, or anything showing when Stalin gave the order to work out the military planning for so vast an undertaking, when and how he introduced his commanders to his intentions. All such details are known with regard to Hitler’s plan to attack the Soviet Union. Why do we know so much about the origins and organization of Hitler’s Operation Barbarossa but so little about Stalin’s allegedly intended thunderstorm, whatever it’s code name would have been?

It doesn’t seem as if Suvorov et al have anything palpable to show in the direction of an intended aggression by Stalin. From what I've learned about them in exchanges with their fans, they speculate on Stalin having intended an all-out attack in 1941 on the basis of the following considerations:

a) Stalin’s disbelief in the imminence of a German attack;

b) Deployment of Red Army forces near the frontier in a manner more suited for attack than for defense.

Rather meager indications to support a conclusion that Stalin was intending an all-out war of conquest, if you ask me.

As to a), it would be interesting to know what exactly these authors are referring to: Stalin’s apparent failure to heed warnings about the imminence of a German attack - even such that were not classified as unreliable by his intelligence services, which apparently did consider some as worth noticing -, or a lack of awareness that the Germans were preparing for war against the Soviet Union? Are they telling us that Stalin failed to notice the buildup of German forces on the German-Soviet frontier? That he believed German troops were being concentrated in Poland, Hungary and Romania to attack the British? That the numerous violations of Soviet airspace by German aircraft meant nothing to him at all? If so, one of the assumptions on which these authors base their conclusions seems to stand on shaky ground.

As to b), I think there’s nothing wrong in principle with speculations in the absence of conclusive evidence, but if a historian concludes on a certain intention from a certain behavior, as these authors obviously do, he must convincingly rule out other possible explanations for that behavior - something Suvorov et al obviously failed to do.

Have they convincingly ruled out the possibility that the concentration of Soviet troops at the borders with Germany and her allies was just a measure of preparation for the eventuality of war breaking out, pursuant to a strategy of forward defense followed by counter-attacks or to a military doctrine professing that in the event of war breaking out Soviet forces would immediately carry the fight onto enemy territory? The fact that military planning in the event of war breaking out was centered around attack rather than defense is no evidence that an all-out aggression was planned. It just shows that the Soviet military command believed its own propaganda BS that the Red Army was an offensive army and would rout the enemy on its own territory in the event of war breaking out instead of being constrained to defend itself against an enemy onslaught on Soviet territory.

Have they convincingly ruled out the possibility that Stalin may have feigned to ignore intelligence pointing to the imminence of a German attack that he actually took very seriously and to which he reacted by stepping up preparations for defense or attack, however late it was to do this?

Have they convincingly ruled out the possibility that Stalin’s concentration of troops at the border was but a show of force in order to deter Hitler from attacking or, as Stalin may have believed the intention of Hitler’s buildup to have been, persuade the other side to recommence negotiations?

Have they convincingly explained why an army supposedly on the verge of lounging at the enemy’s throat was not in a state of alert and thus caught with its pants down? Why Soviet troops didn’t know and asked for instructions about what to do when they realized they were being attacked?

There are other questions beside the above that Suvorov et al hopefully answered satisfactorily if their theories are to have any credibility. One is what advantage Stalin could have drawn from being the one to break a non-aggression pact that had been highly beneficial to him in the past, allowing him to swallow up Eastern Poland, the Baltic countries and a part of Romania, and continued to be so on account of the trade agreement that allowed him to acquire technology his army and his country badly needed and of the hope that the issues regarding German withdrawal from Finland, a free hand for the Soviet Union in Iran and the Persian Gulf and Soviet bases in Bulgaria and Turkey (the list of demands filed by Molotov with the German ambassador in Moscow on November 25, 1940) would be eventually resolved, despite the failure of Molotov’s visit to Berlin.

One of the sources Overy refers to is a 1995 publication by B. Pietrow-Ennker, Die Sowjetunion und der Beginn des Zweiten Weltkriegs 1939-1941. Ergebnisse einer internationalen Konferenz in Moskau. According to Overy:
This is an extensive report on a conference of historians in Moscow to mark the fiftieth anniversary of the end of the war. The Russian historians present confirmed that Stalin and Molotov were genuinely seeking a second pact.


Another question is why Stalin, whose behavior so far didn’t exactly show him to be a military adventurer but rather a guy who liked to play it safe (he only attacked Finland because he incorrectly assumed it would be a walkover), would all of a sudden have turned into a gambler like Hitler, willing to take the risk of an all-out offensive against a force no one had stood up to so far. What would have brought about such a radical turnabout in Stalin’s attitudes and policies, causing him to abandon the principle of prodding with the bayonets but withdrawing them immediately as soon as they met steel? Did he have reasons to believe his own propaganda BS that
The Red Army is a modern army, and a modern army is an offensive army


as he said in a speech on May 5, 1941? Overy’s comment:
This, too, has been taken as evidence of malign intent. Yet it is entirely consistent with the Soviet view of fighting dating from the 1920s. Defense was regarded neither as an acceptable option for a revolutionary state, nor as militarily desirable. Stalin said nothing that had not been said a hundred times before.


Did he have reasons to believe that the Red Army was an army ready for large-scale offensive operations not only on propaganda posters, but in actual fact? Evidence points to exactly the contrary. There was the disastrous experience of the Winter War against Finland, in which entire Soviet divisions were annihilated by much smaller Finnish detachments and it took the deployment of an enormous numerical superiority in manpower and armament to eventually break the Mannerheim line, Soviet casualties being five times higher than those of the Finns. There was the rather unconvincing performance of his general staff at the war games held in January 1941, which is reported by Marshal Yeremenko to have driven Stalin into a fit of rage.

What was there, beside numerical superiority, to make Stalin assume that his forces were capable of staging an all-out offensive against the Wehrmacht with a good chance of success?

What numerical superiority did he reckon to be necessary in view of previous experiences, especially the Winter War, to overcome the German armed forces?

Did he consider the Soviet Union able to achieve such numerical superiority?

And if the answer to these three questions were “yes, because ...”, would the assumed advantage be enough to turn Stalin, the cautious and cunning manipulator, into Stalin, the Hitler-like military adventurer?

Events showed that strong doubts as to the offensive capacities of the Soviet forces were all too justified. Effective as the Red Army eventually turned out to be in defensive fighting, it botched up almost all of its offensive operations prior to Stalingrad and wasn’t able to conduct successful offensives in summertime until after Kursk.

Yet another question is related to the fact that, if I’m not mistaken, the Red Army was undergoing a process of armament modernization that was not expected to be complete before 1942: Substitution of obsolete types of tanks by the new T34 medium and KV heavy tanks, introduction of new fighter and ground-attack planes and of other new artillery weapons like the “Katyusha” multiple rocket launcher. I’m no expert in military affairs, but wouldn’t it have been total nonsense from a military point of view to launch a large-scale offensive before this modernization was completed, while most tanks and planes were still of obsolete types?

I wonder what answers Suvorov et al have to all these questions.

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#11

Post by Reigo » 12 Jul 2002, 18:43

Roberto wrote:
Neither of them apparently produces any evidence that Stalin was on the verge of staging such an all-out attack, or documentation revealing why Stalin planned such an attack, when the decision was taken, what Stalin’s goals were, what he is supposed to have had in mind with the enemy he allegedly intended to conquer, what his plans for German-occupied Europe were in the event of a victorious outcome of the supposed attack, or anything showing when Stalin gave the order to work out the military planning for so vast an undertaking, when and how he introduced his commanders to his intentions.
Geee Roberto, we discussed this a year ago. I gave you some data which could have been interpreted as direct or indirect evidence. Finally I realized that you didn't even read my posts fully (and you even admitted it BTW) and just continued to post the same things all over again. That you "wonder what answers Suvorov et al have to all these questions, " indicates again that you didn't read my posts.
Sorry, no interest of discussing with you on this topic.

Regards,

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Mait
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#12

Post by Mait » 12 Jul 2002, 19:03

Reigo wrote:Yes I have read it. It's very interesting. But the concept of 1941 in his book are based on Suvorov. And Suvorov isn't worth much as a source.

Regards,
What You said about Suvorov is sad but true - the fellow seems to have spoiled an interesting point of view with intolerably bad writing. But I got the impression from reading the "Stalin" that Radzinski used other materials beside Suvorov, some documents from the archives he has personally worked in for instance. I must say with regret that I have not read the "Icebreaker" yet, but these documents were not mentioned in "Suicide" by Suvorov. Any comments from Your behalf are awaited :)

By the way, is "Icebreaker" published in Estonia (and if it is by whom and when)?

Best Regards,

Mait.

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#13

Post by Mait » 12 Jul 2002, 19:11

Reigo: Geee Roberto, we discussed this a year ago. [...] Sorry, no interest of discussing with you on this topic.

Well gentlemen, would You discuss this topic with me? I was not here a year ago...

Best Regards,

Mait.

Reigo
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#14

Post by Reigo » 12 Jul 2002, 19:15

The last year's discussion on the topic can be found here. I am ashamed that I lost my temper so badly and degenerated into slander. :oops:
http://pub3.ezboard.com/fskalmanforumfr ... =1&stop=20

Note, that I don't necessarily support anymore all the views, written by me last year. People constantly learn, you know :)

"Icebreaker" was published several years ago by "Olion". I believe most of Suvorovs books have published here. I haven't read the "Suicide," because when I discovered that the author is sometimes simply lying, I lost interest in his books.

Regards,

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#15

Post by Starinov » 12 Jul 2002, 20:21

Suvorov may lie sometimes but the good thing about his books is that now people must think twice about that subject and make more research.

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