Was the Soviet Union preparing to attack Germany?

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Sid Guttridge
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1486

Post by Sid Guttridge » 13 Mar 2017, 13:54

Hi Michael,

Neither Cripps nor Sikorski were part of Hitler or Stalin's inner circle, so their opinions are far from definitve. They tell us what the Brits and Free Poles thought was happening, which is not necessarily what Hitler or Stalin were actually up to.

There seems little evidence that the USSR was about to attack Germany imminently, so Barbarossa was not pre-emptive on the tactical or operational level.

On the other hand the USSR had not yet renounced world revolution and the Comintern, so on the widest geo-political strategic level it may have been.

Cheers,

Sid

sandeepmukherjee196
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1487

Post by sandeepmukherjee196 » 13 Mar 2017, 18:24

Sid Guttridge wrote:Hi Michael,

Neither Cripps nor Sikorski were part of Hitler or Stalin's inner circle, so their opinions are far from definitve. They tell us what the Brits and Free Poles thought was happening, which is not necessarily what Hitler or Stalin were actually up to.

There seems little evidence that the USSR was about to attack Germany imminently, so Barbarossa was not pre-emptive on the tactical or operational level.

On the other hand the USSR had not yet renounced world revolution and the Comintern, so on the widest geo-political strategic level it may have been.

Cheers,

Sid
Hi Sid ...long time !

Stalin hadn't formally renounced world revolution et al. But the official USSR policy on these things were decidedly inward looking ever since the hiatus with Trotsky.

They weren't above helping insurgents and local communist parties here and there. But when the chips were down ... Stalin wasn't up to jeopardising Soviet interests for anyone else's revolution anywhere else.

Even in Spain the Soviet backed faction was far more conservative and inclusive than the anarchist and Trotskyist folks.

Stalin was arming for all he was worth...true. But wouldn't you do the same if you had a dangerously powerful potential foe on your western borders....whose moksha was supposed to be lebensraum in the east? And with Germany's ally Japan at the other end with a history of defeat in that part of the world?

In 1941, Stalin and everyone else, grossly overestimated German capabilities. No one would go looking for trouble with a force that looked invincible at that point. His preparation was essentially defensive.

Cheers
Sandeep


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Yuri
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1488

Post by Yuri » 13 Mar 2017, 18:51

michael mills wrote:
These are interesting anecdotes, but I'm not sure of their relevance. Politicians believe all sorts of things, often on the basis of only partial information. Some will believe almost anything.
So Max, do you think that you have a better understanding of the reasons for the German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941 than Sikorski and Cripps did? Than men who were on the spot, and had access to all sorts of official sources of information?
In 1941 Sikorski and Cripps "drank" cocktail of the bizarre mix of misinformation, information, guesses and speculations.

sandeepmukherjee196
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1489

Post by sandeepmukherjee196 » 13 Mar 2017, 18:57

Cripps was himself one of the barmen who mixed that cocktail. His agenda was focused on one point. Put the fear of God into Stalin.... stoke his paranoia and put him on the path of confrontation with Germany.
It's worthwhile to remember the manic British efforts in WW I to keep the Tsar in the war !

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Yuri
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1490

Post by Yuri » 13 Mar 2017, 19:09

The bartender was Hitler, and all the others including Stalin drank the drink. Another thing is that Stalin (and Churchill and Roosevelt) had the ability to add custom gradients. In contrast to these giants figures grade Sikorski and Cripps "drank" only what they served.

sandeepmukherjee196
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1491

Post by sandeepmukherjee196 » 13 Mar 2017, 19:46

Yuri wrote:The bartender was Hitler, and all the others including Stalin drank the drink. Another thing is that Stalin (and Churchill and Roosevelt) had the ability to add custom gradients. In contrast to these giants figures grade Sikorski and Cripps "drank" only what they served.
Missed your point there. How was Hitler the bartender in this case ?

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Attrition
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1492

Post by Attrition » 13 Mar 2017, 20:59

michael mills wrote:
Ah, Hitler was the victim; now I understand.
No, you obviously do not understand.

Why do you obstinately refuse to consider the views of Cripps and Sikorski, who were men on the scene, who had experience of Stalin's deviousness, and moreover were in no way sympathetic to Hitler?

There can be no question that Sikorski and Cripps knew infinitely more about what was happening in June 1941 than you do, since they were there.

I have presented contemporary material, records made by political leaders who were in a position to observe what was happening and to make informed judgements about the causes of the events that were unfolding before their eyes. All you have done is to make one inane comment after another.
Neither had a crystal ball or a monopoly of wisdom. Did your search uncover anything about the British and French allying with Hitler in 1938 to keep the Red Army out of central Europe and then bleating gently when Stalin followed their lead in 1939 to keep them out of central Europe?

Max Payload
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1493

Post by Max Payload » 14 Mar 2017, 01:22

michael mills wrote: So Max, do you think that you have a better understanding of the reasons for the German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941 than Sikorski and Cripps did? Than men who were on the spot, and had access to all sorts of official sources of information?
An individual being 'on the spot' and having 'access to all sorts of official sources of information' is no guarantee of that individual correctly interpreting events. Sometimes they get it spectacularly wrong; Chamberlain and Halifax come to mind. Distance often provides perspective, and with regard to the topic of this particular thread it seems pretty obvious, without rehashing 99 pages of argument, that in expressing the views you quoted, Cripps and Sikorski simply got it wrong.

michael mills
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1494

Post by michael mills » 14 Mar 2017, 06:02

There seems little evidence that the USSR was about to attack Germany imminently, so Barbarossa was not pre-emptive on the tactical or operational level.
Sid, that is not really relevant to the views expressed by Cripps or Sikorski. If you read their comments carefully, you will see that neither thought that Stalin was preparing to launch an attack against Germany in the near future.

In fact, Cripps described the Soviet Union as weak and in a state of chaos, and being unable to resist the German attack which both he and Sikorski realised was going to start in a matter of days. He said that the Soviet Union would not be strong enough to resist Germany until 1942. As I pointed out, that was probably because he knew that the program of upgrading the Red Army, which had been underway since 1939, was scheduled to be completed in that year.

What both Cripps and Sikorski did believe was that Stalin was planning to attack Germany at some time in the future, when that country's strength had been weakened by the ongoing struggle with Britain, or when the German armed forces were fully engaged in an invasion of Britain or in the Mediterranean. That was an entirely logical deduction from the observable facts at that time; Stalin was pressing forward with massive rearmament, and it was obvious to any clear-sighted observer that he was preparing for war with Germany.

The only thing that observers at the time could not be sure of was whether the inevitable German-Soviet war would begin with a German attack on the Soviet Union or a Soviet attack on Germany. By the time Cripps and Sikorski had their conversation, in June 1941, it was clear that Germany was now ready to launch an offensive while the Soviet Union was not, so the initiative in starting the war would obviously come from Germany.

Since in historical reality the German-Soviet war began with the German attack in June 1941, it is impossible to know for certain whether, if that German attack had not taken place and Hitler had instead directed his forces against Britain, Stalin would have launched an attack on Germany at some future date, possibly in 1942 or 1943. But it is improbable that Stalin, if he had been left in peace in 1941 to complete his own military preparations, would have been content to remain passive throughout 1942 and perhaps 1943, and would not have taken the opportunity to try to grab at least some of the territory ruled over by a Germany that was becoming progressively weaker.

After all, Stalin had taken advantage of Germany's weak position in August 1939 to advance a considerable distance to the west, to within striking distance of Warsaw.

michael mills
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1495

Post by michael mills » 14 Mar 2017, 06:13

And with Germany's ally Japan at the other end with a history of defeat in that part of the world?
It is unlikely that Stalin was really afraid of an attack by Japan in 1941, no matter what he may have said. Japan's army was bogged down in an unwinnable war in China, and the Red Army had shown itself to be more than a match for the Japanese forces in Manchuria.

Furthermore, he had neutralised the Japanese through the non-aggression pact concluded with them in April 1941.

It was fairly obvious to any clear-sighted person, such as Stalin was, that it was far more likely that Japan would lash out against Britain and the United States, which were threatening it with economic ruin through such measures as the oil embargo, than that it would attack the Soviet Union which was not harming it in any way.

michael mills
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1496

Post by michael mills » 14 Mar 2017, 06:37

Max Payload, in what way do you think Cripps and Sikorski "got it wrong"?

They both were fully aware that Germany was about to attack the Soviet Union. They also thought that the Soviet Union was too weak to resist the German attack, at least initially.

Are you saying that they were wrong in their view that Stalin had been planning to attack Germany at some time in the future, when Germany had been weakened?

That view was an entirely rational one, given that in 1939 Stalin had taken advantage of Hitler's weak position to push him to agree to a substantial Soviet advance to the West, and as late as November 1940 was again pushing Hitler to agree to even further Soviet advances in the Baltic and the Balkans, advances that would have left Germany in a very vulnerable position in the East.

It was entirely rational to assume that, once the Soviet Union had grown stronger than Germany militarily, both through its own rearmament and the progressive weakening of Germany in its ongoing conflict with Britain, Stalin would not remain passive but would seize the opportunity to attack Germany in the rear and thereby take possession of all or most of German-controlled Europe.

sandeepmukherjee196
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1497

Post by sandeepmukherjee196 » 14 Mar 2017, 07:30

Michael it is indeed entirely rational .. NOT to discount the possibility of a Soviet move against Germany later IF the latter came up croppers against Britain elsewhere.

Stalin was no pal of Hitler. There was no love lost. Nazi Germany had reversed the earlier bonhomie of the Weimar days. The 1939 pact was pure opportunism and both sides knew it.

I think what is being sought to be established here is that in 1941 the USSR had no stomach for a fight for the foreseeable future...as things stood then.

Cheers
Sandeep

Globalization41
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1498

Post by Globalization41 » 14 Mar 2017, 09:56

Goebbels put out fake news that Hitler was opposed to war with Stalin, but that the German Generals were pressuring Hitler into invading the Soviet Union. Stalin prepared for the alleged possibility of the Generals winning out against Hitler for war, but felt he could convince Hitler not to invade. The Russians needed at least another year to upgrade the Red Army. ... Stalin hoped the Balkans blitz would bog down the Germans for the summer. However, the main bulk of the German Army continued to mass along the Soviet-Nazi Demarcation line while a small force of Germans detached itself from the main concentrations to subdue Yugoslavia and Greece. The German invasion of Crete then made it look like Hitler was headed for the British oil fields in the Middle East. ...The pro-British Hess parachuted into England on his own initiative, hoping to negotiate peace between Britain and Germany, which Stalin (using psychological projection) felt was in the strategic interests of Churchill and Hitler. ... Britain hoped to scare Stalin into joining the war against Hitler, but British propagandists unwittingly stoked Stalin's paranoia by claiming Hess wanted the British to join Germany in a crusade against Bolshevism. Actually, however, Stalin wanted to avoid war with Hitler at all costs, at least through 1941, and automatically assumed the British were conspiring to draw the Soviet Union into the war and thus decrease Britain's war burden. It wasn't until early June 1941 that it finally dawned fully on Churchill and the British that the Germans might actually invade Russia. Meanwhile, Stalin convinced himself that he could persuade Hitler not to declare war and thus was completely surprised when Germany invaded Russia.

Globalization41.
Last edited by Globalization41 on 14 Mar 2017, 17:44, edited 1 time in total.

sandeepmukherjee196
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1499

Post by sandeepmukherjee196 » 14 Mar 2017, 10:16

Globalization41 wrote:Goebbels put out fake news that Hitler was opposed to war with Stalin, but that the German Generals were pressuring Hitler into invading the Soviet Union. Stalin prepared for the alleged possibility of the Generals winning out against Hitler for war, but felt he could convince Hitler not to invade. The Russians needed at least another year to upgrade the Red Army. ... Stalin hoped the Balkans blitz would bog down the Germans for the summer. However, the main bulk of the German Army continued to mass along the Soviet-Nazi Demarcation line while a small force of Germans detached from the main concentrations to subdue Yugoslavia and Greece. The German invasion of Crete then made it look like Hitler was headed for the British oil fields in the Middle East. ...The pro-British Hess parachuted into England on his own initiative, hoping to negotiate peace between Britain and Germany, which Stalin (using psychological projection) felt was in the strategic interests of Churchill and Hitler. ... Britain hoped to scare Stalin into joining the war against Hitler, but British propagandists unwittingly stoked Stalin's paranoia by claiming Hess wanted the British to join Germany in a crusade against Bolshevism. Actually, however, Stalin wanted to avoid war with Hitler at all costs, at least through 1941, and automatically assumed the British were conspiring to draw the Soviet Union into the war and thus decrease Britain's war burden. It wasn't until early June 1941 that it finally dawned fully on Churchill and the British that the Germans might actually invade Russia. Meanwhile, Stalin convinced himself that he could persuade Hitler not to declare war and thus was completely surprised when Germany invaded Russia.

Globalization41.
You have summed it up succinctly. However do you have any source on Goebbels trying to put out fake news ?

Cheers
Sandeep

michael mills
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1500

Post by michael mills » 14 Mar 2017, 12:27

I think what is being sought to be established here is that in 1941 the USSR had no stomach for a fight for the foreseeable future...as things stood then.
Presumably Timoshenko and Zhukov did have such a stomach, since in May 1941 they prepared the first draft of a plan for launching a pre-emptive strike against the German forces massing on the Soviet western frontier.

The basis of their plan was to catch the German forces off balance, when they were in the middle of deploying for an attack and would not be in a defensive position. They believed that that element of surprise would give the Soviet forces a chance of success.

The question is whether Timoshenko and Zhukov prepared their first-strike plan on their own initiative, or in response to an order from Stalin. Given the nature of the Stalinist system, the latter seems more likely. But if they were following an order from Stalin, did they really believe in the draft plan they had formulated? I suppose we will never know for certain.

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