Was Stalin really planning to attack Germany in 1942?

[john2]

John, although Hitler had already ordered to prepare a plan against USSR in July 1940, his decision to attack came much later, and the primary reason, AFAIK, was the very negative outcome of the meeting with Molotov of 12-13 Nov. 1940, when Hitler even offered to USSR to join th Tripartite Pact.

I would agree except Hitler issued a directive the very day Molotov came to attack Russia regardless of the outcome of the talks. The appropriate excerpt reads:

5. Russia

Political discussions for the purpose of clafifying Russia's attitud in the immediate future have already begun. Regardless of the outcome of these conversations all preparations for the East for which verbal orders have already been given will be continued.

Further directives will follow on this subject as soon as the basic operational plan of the Army has been submitted to me and approved.

You can read the rest of the directive here: http://www.adolfhitler.ws/lib/proc/direct18.html

A problem with the history of WW2 is that while most of the orders and a good number of opinions expressed by Hitler are known and, if possible, used against him, I don't see the same documentation for Stalin.

You're right. This is a major problem and why I said at the beginning whether or not Stalin would attack must for now remain speculation.

Thus, for example, I would like to know if there are Soviet documents explaining the reasons for cancellation or supension of the works on those capital ships, or if we have only to guess them (as done until now).

I don't know if there any documents explaining the reason. But it would the effort to look for them.

Guessed reasons that are, in your opinion, the belief that Hitler would have attacked USSR regardless to the outcome of the meeting with Molotov

Hitler himself said it. See above.

and instead, in my opinion, that Stalin had never thought that he wouldn't try to spread communism or at least make USSR stronger

Well what Stalin wanted is speculation. I can agree that he wanted Russia to be as strong as she could be.

(a proof, in my opinion, is the occupation of Northern Bukovina on 28 June 1940, against the previous pacts with Germany)

Bukovina was never mentioned in the pact as belonging to anybody. Since it was for grabs, so to speak of, Stalin technically didn't break the pact though it was clearly a move directed against Germany.

along with his fear (right, but, in my opinion, only since Nov.-Dic. 1940) of a German/capitalist attack in the near future.

Ok so we both agree that Stalin feared an attack by Germany. The question is how did he react? This depends on your view of the strength of the red army. If you think the red army was strong then a preemptive attack might be feasible. However there is a lot of evidence that Stalin's army was not strong and had serious problems. This led him to a strategy of trying to keep Germany occupied in the west while he tried to build up his strength.

The problem with the planning of Barbarossa and of its hypotetic Soviet version has always been: who was born first, the egg or the hen? Nazi or Soviet imperialism?

Well Hitler mentioned the idea of attacking Russia in June, before Stalin had even done anything against Germany.

Thus, instead of starting another debate (interesting, indeed, but usually exahusting) about the date of Hitler's decision to attack (when he wrote the Mein Kampf? In 1939? In the Summer of 1940? On 18 Dec. 1940?) or about Stalin's expansionism, I would prefer if you (or anybody else) were able, please, to document the reasons of Stalin's (or of the High Command?) orders of 19 Oct. 1940.

I will try my best but I don't know if I'll find anything.

[DrG]

I would agree except Hitler issued a directive the very day Molotov came to attack Russia regardless of the outcome of the talks. The appropriate excerpt reads:[cut]
You can read the rest of the directive here: http://www.adolfhitler.ws/lib/proc/direct18.html

John2, thank you, but you don't need to repeat your questionable (IMHO)interpretation of that directive about the occupation of Spain as already done in this older thread: http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?p=284143. As you know, since it has already been explained to you and it's clear from the directive's text, Hitler only wanted the planning of the offensive to go on, but hadn't made his decision yet. And, in the same time, also USSR had (merely theoric, as far as we know) plans against Germany. I don't think there is a usefulness in repeating that old debate here.

Bukovina was never mentioned in the pact as belonging to anybody. Since it was for grabs, so to speak of, Stalin technically didn't break the pact though it was clearly a move directed against Germany.

In the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact is stated clearly that USSR was interested only in Bessarabia: the annexion of Bukovina went out of Soviet sphere of influence. What isn't mentioned in the pact doesn't mean that is free, just for the first who wants to annex it without even consulting the other signatory of the pact.

Well Hitler mentioned the idea of attacking Russia in June, before Stalin had even done anything against Germany.

Hitler mentioned the idea of attacking Russia already in the Mein Kampf, and I'm pretty sure that we would easily find a speech by Stalin in which he tells that USSR should export the revolution to the rest of Europe...


Now, closed the debate about strategy with John2 (because any further critic can be easily found in the older thread that I've linked above), but kept open the topic of Soviet capital ships, I wish to explain in a better way what I think may have been Stalin's ideas.
After the German guarantees of Rumanian borders (30 Aug. 1940) and the presence of German troops in that country (7 Oct.), Stalin understands that any further expansion will mean war. Thus he cancels or suspends the construction of expensive capital ships that wouldn't be ready by circa 1942, and focus on smaller naval units or on land vehicles. This, IMHO, may be a proof of Stalin's will to attack at least in 1942.
Instead, I don't think that Stalin halted those naval constructions merely because of the fear of a German attack, not only because not even Hitler had already decided to attack in mid-Oct. 1940, but also because it would be illogic not to build those ships after years of planning and after months of work, money and resources spent on them only because of the fear of a future German attack. Stalin didn't even mobilize Soviet troops in June 1941 because he feared to irritate Germans (that, instead, were ready to attack), he ignored the warnings by Britain in the spring of 1941, but, with a truly great wisdom (I say it without irony, if proved true), he decided to switch resources from useless (in the event of an early German attack) capital ships in Oct. 1940, 8 months before Barbarossa and even 2 months before Hitler's decision (directive 21 of 18 Dec. 1940). I don't think it's logic, although possible.