news from Russo-Ukraine Front

[Tom Peters]

So ljadw, why dont you tell us why you are opposed (is that it?) to weapon deliveries to UKR.

Mad Dog

[Cult Icon]

"Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov stated on February 5 that the Ukrainian military is expecting Russia to start its decisive offensive around February 24 to symbolically tie the attack to the first anniversary of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[1] Reznikov also clarified that the Ukrainian military has not observed the formation of Russian offensive groups in the Kharkiv and Chernihiv directions or Belarus; Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk noted that Russian forces are likely concentrating on launching offensive operations in the east rather than in southern Ukraine.[2] An unnamed advisor to the Ukrainian military told Financial Times that Russia intends to launch an offensive in the next 10 days (by February 15), a timeline that would allow Russian forces to strike Ukrainian positions before the arrival of Western tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.[3] Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces are continuing to deploy reserves to Luhansk Oblast to strike after February 15.[4]"

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ary-6-2023

[Cult Icon]

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_3428177

Marinka, gallery










looks like a nuclear bomb went off on it.

[waldopepper]

You'll never convince ljadw of anything.

I suspect he's a Russian troll.

Best to ignore him rather than wasting time trying replies to his assertions.

[ljadw]

From the ARD (German TV ) of today :Live Blog about the war in Ukraine
1 The Canadian Minister of Defense (Anita Anand ) boasted on Twitter:
Our first Leos have arrived in Poland and the training of the Ukrainian crews will start soon .
Comments
a How many Leos have arrived ?

So you now ADMIT that the Leos are being sent ?

Before you were claiming they would not be sent.

b When will arrive the remaining Leos ?

Later. Maybe you should write her a sternly worded letter telling her you have a need to know ?

The fact that she remains silent on these points is striking

Or maybe for OPSEC reasons the world doesnt have to know the exact schedule ?

c What is the benefit for Ukraine of the presence of Leos in Poland ?

[facepalm]

Wow. Once again you figured it out. Its all an elaborate conspiracy to fool ljadw.

Maybe, just maaaaybee, they dont want to fly transports directly into UKR to avoid getting shot down by a RU S-300 ? Maybe they intend to drive the L2 into UKR ?

Did you think of that ?

d Why has the training of the Ukrainian crews not started earlier ?And how long will last this training ?
An intelligent person ( thus not a politician ) would have remained silent till she could say : all our Leos are now in Ukraine and ready and the training of the crews and mechanics is finished .

Not a bad principle, but this is political theatre. Various countries are goading other countries into sending tanks.

So what again is your problem with sending L2 ?

[ ] Not enough
[ ] Too many
[ ] not fast enough ?

Care to tell us ?

Mad Dog

I admit nothing .
I comment the declaration of the Canadian Minister of Defense who CLAIMED that the first Leos had arrived in Poland ,thus not in Ukraine, without being able to say what was the number of tanks that had arrived in Poland : 2 tanks is also ''the first '' .
She said also that the training of the Ukrainian crews would start soon ,without saying when : is soon : March ?,May ? August ?
And how many Ukrainians will be trained ?
The minister also wisely avoided to say something about the conditions of these few tanks,she claimed having sent ,this raises justified suspicion that these tanks are not operational .
The minister avoided also to tell us when the remaining tanks would arrive and in what condition they were .
We may assume that in the near future none of these tanks will go to Ukraine to participate to the war and that this ''help '' will not help Ukraine :it is only propaganda .
Or political theater, as you admit it yourself .

[ljadw]

The Dutch minister of defense lied (as one can expect ) that the Netherlands would deliver together with Denmark and Germany 100 Leo 1A5s (The Dutch TV called them '' old timer tanks '' ) from 1987 , thus 36 years old . These tanks are still in the depots of the German defense industry .
But the German defense industry ( Rheinmetall ) said that it could repair and deliver only 20-25 of these tanks in 2023. the rest was for 2024 .
Thus Ukraine can expect only 20/25 of these tanks this year and the minister was lying, as one could expect .
The Kremlin will laugh.
The Bundeswehr has hundreds of tanks . If you want to help Ukraine ( for ideological and financial reasons ) : send your operational tanks ,not tanks that needed a year to be repaired .
US armed forces have 4000 + Abrams :if US wants to help Ukraine ( for the same reasons ) : send operational tanks,hundreds of them :US is at peace, thus it can easily do without hundreds of operational tanks .
But it said : NOT ONE operational Abram, NOT ONE non operational Abram. We will ask General Dynamics to build 39 new tanks and when these are ready (after one year ) we will send them to Europe .
Are there no operational Abrams in Europe ?

[Aida1]

From the ARD (German TV ) of today :Live Blog about the war in Ukraine
1 The Canadian Minister of Defense (Anita Anand ) boasted on Twitter:
Our first Leos have arrived in Poland and the training of the Ukrainian crews will start soon .
Comments
a How many Leos have arrived ?

So you now ADMIT that the Leos are being sent ?

Before you were claiming they would not be sent.

b When will arrive the remaining Leos ?

Later. Maybe you should write her a sternly worded letter telling her you have a need to know ?

The fact that she remains silent on these points is striking

Or maybe for OPSEC reasons the world doesnt have to know the exact schedule ?

c What is the benefit for Ukraine of the presence of Leos in Poland ?

[facepalm]

Wow. Once again you figured it out. Its all an elaborate conspiracy to fool ljadw.

Maybe, just maaaaybee, they dont want to fly transports directly into UKR to avoid getting shot down by a RU S-300 ? Maybe they intend to drive the L2 into UKR ?

Did you think of that ?

d Why has the training of the Ukrainian crews not started earlier ?And how long will last this training ?
An intelligent person ( thus not a politician ) would have remained silent till she could say : all our Leos are now in Ukraine and ready and the training of the crews and mechanics is finished .

Not a bad principle, but this is political theatre. Various countries are goading other countries into sending tanks.

So what again is your problem with sending L2 ?

[ ] Not enough
[ ] Too many
[ ] not fast enough ?

Care to tell us ?

Mad Dog

I admit nothing .
I comment the declaration of the Canadian Minister of Defense who CLAIMED that the first Leos had arrived in Poland ,thus not in Ukraine, without being able to say what was the number of tanks that had arrived in Poland : 2 tanks is also ''the first '' .
She said also that the training of the Ukrainian crews would start soon ,without saying when : is soon : March ?,May ? August ?
And how many Ukrainians will be trained ?
The minister also wisely avoided to say something about the conditions of these few tanks,she claimed having sent ,this raises justified suspicion that these tanks are not operational .
The minister avoided also to tell us when the remaining tanks would arrive and in what condition they were .
We may assume that in the near future none of these tanks will go to Ukraine to participate to the war and that this ''help '' will not help Ukraine :it is only propaganda .
Or political theater, as you admit it yourself .

You clearly live in your own conspirationist alternate reality.

[Aida1]

The Dutch minister of defense lied (as one can expect ) that the Netherlands would deliver together with Denmark and Germany 100 Leo 1A5s (The Dutch TV called them '' old timer tanks '' ) from 1987 , thus 36 years old . These tanks are still in the depots of the German defense industry .
But the German defense industry ( Rheinmetall ) said that it could repair and deliver only 20-25 of these tanks in 2023. the rest was for 2024 .
Thus Ukraine can expect only 20/25 of these tanks this year and the minister was lying, as one could expect .
The Kremlin will laugh.
The Bundeswehr has hundreds of tanks . If you want to help Ukraine ( for ideological and financial reasons ) : send your operational tanks ,not tanks that needed a year to be repaired .
US armed forces have 4000 + Abrams :if US wants to help Ukraine ( for the same reasons ) : send operational tanks,hundreds of them :US is at peace, thus it can easily do without hundreds of operational tanks .
But it said : NOT ONE operational Abram, NOT ONE non operational Abram. We will ask General Dynamics to build 39 new tanks and when these are ready (after one year ) we will send them to Europe .
Are there no operational Abrams in Europe ?

Complete nonsense. Misrepresenting as always. As if the ukranians could suddenly operate hundreds of Abrams tanks. Factually not possible.Takes a lot of training and resources.

[ljadw]

Why should we believe ONE word of the leader of an American political party who is incidentally also president ?

While I cant necessarily disagree with your political cynicism, in this case, gear was promised, gear was delivered.

Gear was promised, gear has been delivered.

Thus, everything Biden is saying is nothing more than election propaganda .

Except for the physical reality that gear was promised, gear has been delivered.

Tell us, what proof do you have that 20 HIMARS were not delivered ? (as an example)

Besides : if the HIMARS were that successful,why is there any reason to send Abrams ?

More is better ? Give UKR more gear to defend itself from RU is a good thing. Maybe the more dead RU soldiers come back in body bags, the sooner the war will be over. I wish it wasnt like that, but unless you can convince Putin to leave UKR, Im not sure how to make it happen.

The Ukrainians did not need HIMARS, Javelins and Abrams , thus there is no need to send them .

Thats awfully nice of you to decide that for the UKR, given they have said otherwise.

And if Biden promises to give Abrams at the end of the year, this means that Ukraine will have to do it this year without Abrams ,thus the Abram promise is an empty promise ,nothing more than election propaganda .

As empty as the promise of HIMARS being sent, right ?

Mad Dog

Gear was promised ,gear was sent : that is something totally meaningless .
Gear was promised, an unknown amount of gear was sent , unknown but very small,thus useless and gear is again promised :Abrams .While it was very possible to send the tanks in February , as US armed forces have thousands of them , only 31 will be sent , but this will take a year : that means that the promise is a lie .
The Ukrainians want hundreds of tanks now, while this can be done , the answer is : NO .We will sent 31 tanks but it will take a year .
Translation : we will not send tanks .
About the HIMARS : here also it was an empty promise .
US has hundreds of HIMARS . They promised Ukraine to send them HIMARS .
What was the result ?
On 23 June, 4 months after the start of the war, 4 ( = FOUR ) HIMARS had arrived in Ukraine, while is was possible to send hundreds during this period .
The fact that only 4 were sent,proves the unwillingness of the US to help Ukraine .
And, how many depots,tanks did these HIMARS destroy ?
The fact that US media are unable to prove the claims that these 4 HIMARS are gamechangers ,indicates that the efficiency of this wonder weapon is unproved and probably unexistant .
There is no need to believe any word of what the Ukrainians are saying .
The decisive phase of the war was before the Javelins and HIMARS arrived .The Ukrainians stopped and repelled the Russians without US help .
That is the reality .

[ljadw]

And I see ( not that I did not expect it ) that no one here dares to answer the 3 following questions
A Is the Russian invasion of Ukraine threatening the key interests of the US ?
B Is the US help to Ukraine helping that country ?
C Is the US help to Ukraine serving the interests of the US ?
Attenuating circumstance is that the Atlantic Council (the mouthpiece of those who want to impose US values by force on the rest of the world ) also is unable to answer these questions .

[Aida1]

Why should we believe ONE word of the leader of an American political party who is incidentally also president ?

While I cant necessarily disagree with your political cynicism, in this case, gear was promised, gear was delivered.

Gear was promised, gear has been delivered.

Thus, everything Biden is saying is nothing more than election propaganda .

Except for the physical reality that gear was promised, gear has been delivered.

Tell us, what proof do you have that 20 HIMARS were not delivered ? (as an example)

Besides : if the HIMARS were that successful,why is there any reason to send Abrams ?

More is better ? Give UKR more gear to defend itself from RU is a good thing. Maybe the more dead RU soldiers come back in body bags, the sooner the war will be over. I wish it wasnt like that, but unless you can convince Putin to leave UKR, Im not sure how to make it happen.

The Ukrainians did not need HIMARS, Javelins and Abrams , thus there is no need to send them .

Thats awfully nice of you to decide that for the UKR, given they have said otherwise.

And if Biden promises to give Abrams at the end of the year, this means that Ukraine will have to do it this year without Abrams ,thus the Abram promise is an empty promise ,nothing more than election propaganda .

As empty as the promise of HIMARS being sent, right ?

Mad Dog

Gear was promised ,gear was sent : that is something totally meaningless .
Gear was promised, an unknown amount of gear was sent , unknown but very small,thus useless and gear is again promised :Abrams .While it was very possible to send the tanks in February , as US armed forces have thousands of them , only 31 will be sent , but this will take a year : that means that the promise is a lie .
The Ukrainians want hundreds of tanks now, while this can be done , the answer is : NO .We will sent 31 tanks but it will take a year .
Translation : we will not send tanks .
About the HIMARS : here also it was an empty promise .
US has hundreds of HIMARS . They promised Ukraine to send them HIMARS .
What was the result ?
On 23 June, 4 months after the start of the war, 4 ( = FOUR ) HIMARS had arrived in Ukraine, while is was possible to send hundreds during this period .
The fact that only 4 were sent,proves the unwillingness of the US to help Ukraine .
And, how many depots,tanks did these HIMARS destroy ?
The fact that US media are unable to prove the claims that these 4 HIMARS are gamechangers ,indicates that the efficiency of this wonder weapon is unproved and probably unexistant .
There is no need to believe any word of what the Ukrainians are saying .
The decisive phase of the war was before the Javelins and HIMARS arrived .The Ukrainians stopped and repelled the Russians without US help .
That is the reality .

About the HIMARS too, you got it all wrong as usual. 20 were delivered and were used with great effect. Your anti-american bias shows through. HIMARS and Javelin are very capable systems. Only you deny that. :roll: :roll:

[Aida1]

And I see ( not that I did not expect it ) that no one here dares to answer the 3 following questions
A Is the Russian invasion of Ukraine threatening the key interests of the US ?
B Is the US help to Ukraine helping that country ?
C Is the US help to Ukraine serving the interests of the US ?
Attenuating circumstance is that the Atlantic Council (the mouthpiece of those who want to impose US values by force on the rest of the world ) also is unable to answer these questions .

Shows your conspirationism again. You are not to be taken seriously.

[Gooner1]

The decisive phase of the war was before the Javelins and HIMARS arrived .The Ukrainians stopped and repelled the Russians without US help .
That is the reality .

First Javelins:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukra ... SKBN1I11ZY

Supplies of NLAWS and more Javelins began before the Russian invasion:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... an-advance
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/es ... 022-02-18/

Unquestionably they played a significant part in the defeat of the Russian 'first phase'

"On 25 March, Russian officials declared that the first phase of the "special military operation" in Ukraine was complete. On 29 March 2022, they declared that they intended to scale back their military operations in the region around the capital city of Kyiv. This effectively ended Russian operations in northern Ukraine and in Northeastern Ukraine"

The Battle of Donbas is an ongoing military offensive that is part of the wider eastern Ukraine campaign of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. The battle began on 18 April 2022 between the armed forces of Russia and Ukraine for control of the Donbas provinces (oblasts) of Donetsk and Luhansk. Military analysts consider the battle to be part of the second strategic phase of the invasion

By 23 June 2022, Russian officials claimed to control 55% of Donetsk oblast. By 3 July, Russia claimed to control all of Luhansk oblast,with Russian and separatist forces controlling the cities of Mariupol, Sievierodonetsk, Lysychansk, Rubizhne, and many others. In September 2022, during the counteroffensive, Ukraine recaptured Bilohorivka, a village close to Lysychansk in the Luhansk Oblast and the cities of Lyman and Sviatohirsk in the Donetsk region."

Without HIMARS, GMLRS and Western artillery the successful Ukrainian counter offensive is difficult to believe possible.

Only a complete cretin will not understand that Ukrainian success has come through the use of combined arms.

[Cult Icon]

the historian Philp O'Brien claims that Ukraine now has 80 brigades, up from 27 on Feb 24th. The remnants of the 300,000 professional-contract ground forces & national guard cadre are spread very thin, like Germany in 1945.

that sounds about right based on what Militaryland is compiling.

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/

https://militaryland.net/news/ukraine-c ... -brigades/

https://militaryland.net/news/ukraine-i ... -brigades/

If Ukraine concentrates their best personnel in a few 'attack units' they could launch a counteroffensive in some area. But the majority of their units are only capable of static defense.

The real mystery is how Russia intends on 'demilitarizing' this huge people's army without a long war of attrition or use of tactical nuclear weapons.

[ljadw]

That Javelins ( how many ? ) arrived in 2015 in Ukraine is not a proof for the claim that the Russians failed in March/April 2022 to defeat Ukraine because of these Javelins .
How many Russian tanks were destroyed by these Javelins and was the destruction of an unknown number of tanks the reason why the Ukrainian offensive succeeded ?
There is no reason to believe the propaganda from Lockheed Martin .
The Ukrainian counter offensive was nor the reason for the Russian failure, but the result of it and thus the counter offensive would also have happened without HIMARS,GMLRS and Western artillery .
The Russian claim of controlling 55 % or even 100 % of the Donetsk oblast was the recognition that they had failed : the aim of the invasion was NOT to control the Donetsk oblast but the elimination of Ukraine as an independent and hostile state and the occupation of the Donetsk oblast would not do this ,
As the Russians had not the means to and defeat the Ukrainian army and occupy and pacify Ukraine, the only possibility was to eliminate the Ukrainian leadership,hoping that this would result in the collaps of the Ukrainian state and its transformation in something as Belarus .
This failed,and not because of HIMARS,etc, but because of the willingness of the Ukrainians to fight ,they fought also in 2014 without HIMARS and JAVELINS..
Ukraine could afford a long war, Russia could not afford a long war . Russia fought not against 600000 Ukrainian military, but against 40 million Ukrainians who did not need Javelins, HIMARS ,etc. The comparison with Barbarossa is significant :the Soviets won ,not because of the KV or T 34 tanks, not because of Lend-Lease ,but because the population was willing to fight and to suffer . And, one can ask the same question about the Stingers, etc, given to the Taliban when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan .
The bla bla about the gamechangers from Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics is only a copycat of the myth of the Lend Lease game changer .
On 25 March 2022 the first phase of the special military operation was a failure .
On that day the war had to be over .
The war was not over .