Iranian plans if Iran would have won the Iran-Iraq War?

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Futurist
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Iranian plans if Iran would have won the Iran-Iraq War?

Post by Futurist » 20 Jan 2021 04:40

Does anyone here know if Iran had ever made any concrete plans about what it was going to do next if it would have won the Iran-Iraq War? For instance, was invading Kuwait and/or eastern (Shi'a-majority) Saudi Arabia ever on the table for Iran in such a scenario?

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Re: Iranian plans if Iran would have won the Iran-Iraq War?

Post by Sid Guttridge » 20 Jan 2021 12:32

Hi Futurist,

As Iran didn't initiate the war and was caught by surprise, it presumably didn't start with any war aims.

Given that Russia, China and France were heavily arming Iraq while it couldn't get much weaponry itself due to US sanctions, it probably regarded survival intact at the peace as victory enough.

This link shows that neither side was going anywhere fast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09TnwicyQx8

Cheers,

Sid.

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Re: Iranian plans if Iran would have won the Iran-Iraq War?

Post by Thumpalumpacus » 20 Jan 2021 14:46

In addition to what Sid wrote, remember as well that the mullahs were still working to consolidate their revolution and had few resources and little energy to expend on outward-looking policies. I think the most they would have done was essentially what they ended up doing after the I-I war: giving support to radical Islamic groups.

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Re: Iranian plans if Iran would have won the Iran-Iraq War?

Post by Futurist » 20 Jan 2021 22:36

Sid Guttridge wrote:
20 Jan 2021 12:32
Hi Futurist,

As Iran didn't initiate the war and was caught by surprise, it presumably didn't start with any war aims.

Given that Russia, China and France were heavily arming Iraq while it couldn't get much weaponry itself due to US sanctions, it probably regarded survival intact at the peace as victory enough.

This link shows that neither side was going anywhere fast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09TnwicyQx8

Cheers,

Sid.
But Iran could have ended the war in 1982 if all it wanted was survival, no? Didn't Saddam offer to end the war in 1982 but Iran said "No!" because they wanted to overthrow Saddam?

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Re: Iranian plans if Iran would have won the Iran-Iraq War?

Post by Sid Guttridge » 20 Jan 2021 23:04

Hi Futurist, ,

I wrote "survival intact",

Saddam's war aim was to annex the Shiite Arab areas of Iran. This would not have left Iran intact.

Cheers,

Sid.

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Re: Iranian plans if Iran would have won the Iran-Iraq War?

Post by Futurist » 20 Jan 2021 23:15

Yeah, AFAIK, Iran already expelled Iraq from all Iranian territory by 1982, which is when Iran decided to bring the war into Iraqi territory.

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Re: Iranian plans if Iran would have won the Iran-Iraq War?

Post by Sid Guttridge » 20 Jan 2021 23:35

Hi Fururist.

So why would they stop when it looked as though they might win outright?

Nobody fights wars for a draw.

Cheers,

Sid.

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Re: Iranian plans if Iran would have won the Iran-Iraq War?

Post by Futurist » 21 Jan 2021 00:18

It would only count as a draw in your opinion. Someone else might consider expelling the Iraqis from Iran but refusing to take the war into Iraqi territory to be an Iranian victory.

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Re: Iranian plans if Iran would have won the Iran-Iraq War?

Post by Sid Guttridge » 21 Jan 2021 00:21

Hi Futurist,

A return to the status quo ante bellum would be a defeat. All the damage would be on Iranian soil. For instance, if I remember rightly, Khoramshah had been pretty much destroyed.

Cheers,

Sid.
Last edited by Sid Guttridge on 21 Jan 2021 00:23, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Iranian plans if Iran would have won the Iran-Iraq War?

Post by Futurist » 21 Jan 2021 00:22

Presumably the same people who would consider the US's outcome in the Gulf War to have been a victory even though it for the most part refused to extend this war into Iraqi soil.

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Re: Iranian plans if Iran would have won the Iran-Iraq War?

Post by Sid Guttridge » 21 Jan 2021 00:27

Hi Futurist,

A return to the status quo ante bellum without punishing the invader would be a perceptual defeat. All the damage would be on Iranian soil. For instance, if I remember rightly, Khoramshah had been pretty much destroyed.

In the First Gulf War the US suffered no such material loss itself.

Furthermore, it did exactly what Iran did in the Iran-Iraq War - it pursued the Iraqis onto their own soil.

Cheers,

Sid.

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Re: Iranian plans if Iran would have won the Iran-Iraq War?

Post by Futurist » 21 Jan 2021 01:01

Sid Guttridge wrote:
21 Jan 2021 00:27
Furthermore, it did exactly what Iran did in the Iran-Iraq War - it pursued the Iraqis onto their own soil.
Only barely. It certainly didn't try overthrowing Saddam Hussein back in 1991, for instance.

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Re: Iranian plans if Iran would have won the Iran-Iraq War?

Post by Sid Guttridge » 21 Jan 2021 07:31

Hi Futurist,

The hope was to weaken Saddam Hussein so much that he might be overthrown by an internal uprising. It failed.

This failure was part of the roots of the Second Gulf War, which finished the job.

Cheers,

Sid

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Re: Iranian plans if Iran would have won the Iran-Iraq War?

Post by Futurist » 21 Jan 2021 23:18

Had the US really wanted the 1991 Iraqi uprisings to succeed, it could have, you know, actually helped them out to a significant extent as opposed to encouraging them and then betraying them--especially the Iraqi Shi'ites.

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Re: Iranian plans if Iran would have won the Iran-Iraq War?

Post by Steve » 22 Jan 2021 00:05

On the Iranian side it was Ayatollah Khomeini who decided whether the war would continue or not and quite likely he would have agreed with Sid “A return to the status quo ante bellum would be a defeat. All the damage would be on Iranian soil.”

On June 1 1984 Khomeini said in a speech “The war is at the top of our issues. Some deviants and hypocrites might infiltrate the people and ask for an end to the war. If you accept it, you should know that Islam is threatened with by apostasy. If we take one step back, if our nation shows any weakness, they will take its honour (women), its property, the lives of our youth. All of it!”

On July 1 1984 “Those who ask us to compromise are either ignorant or mercenaries. To compromise with the oppressor is to allow him to go on oppressing. This goes against what all prophets stood for”

On March 9 1985 “Have you not seen that the brave mothers and fathers of Iran pull their beloved offspring from under the debris, all the while shouting “War, War Until victory” God salutes this courageous and believing nation who will not accept compromise and submission”.

The quotes are taken from the Shadow Commander by Arash Azizi.

To have settled for a draw after expelling Iraqi forces from Iran was not enough for Khomeini. I don’t think he ever spelled out exactly what a victory would be but obviously the overthrow of Saddam was a major war aim.The liberation of the Iraqi Shia (achieved by defeating Iraq) and bringing the Shia holy sites in Iraq under Shia control may have been his main war aim.

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