The end of tanks as we know it?

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KDF33
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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

#631

Post by KDF33 » 17 Feb 2023, 03:14

Cult Icon wrote:
16 Feb 2023, 19:51
These plants are typically not just for 'repairing' tanks but also for refurbishing and modernizing tanks from Soviet storage.
Per the latest (Feb. '23) edition of The Military Balance, Russia has 2,070 MBTs in service (~2,300 with those of the DPR/LPR), including damaged vehicles.

According to the same source, Russia has a further 5,000 MBTs in store that could (eventually) be refurbished, ranging from old T-62Ms to quite recent T-90As.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has ~1,000 MBTs in service, again including damaged vehicles. About 1/3 of Ukraine's tank park is made up of Russian trophies, however, whose actual serviceability is dubious. The Military Balance doesn't list any Ukrainian MBTs in long-term storage.

All in all, the Ukrainian ZSU probably can muster at most a few hundred MBTs at the front at any given time, whereas I'd be impressed if the Russian VSRF can field 1,000 at the moment.

Russian MBT total losses since November appear to amount to ~100 per month. They were much higher during Ukraine's successful counteroffensives of September - October, or during the initial phase of the invasion last winter. Since Russia renewed major offensive operations over the last few weeks, their MBT losses haven't significantly increased.

Meanwhile, Russian manpower losses have been steadily increasing month-on-month since the beginning of mobilization in late September. January saw the worst Russian personnel losses of the war so far, and February is on track to surpass it.

Maybe the Russians are trying to conserve / rehabilitate armor by throwing a wall of men at the ZSU?

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

#632

Post by Tom Peters » 17 Feb 2023, 04:49

ljadw wrote:
16 Feb 2023, 14:16
''Poor '' showing of RU tanks in UK or Moscow parade marches do not prove that the T-14 is not good .
Its not a glowing endorsement of them being good either.

Mad Dog


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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

#633

Post by Cult Icon » 17 Feb 2023, 05:36

KDF33 wrote:
17 Feb 2023, 03:14
Cult Icon wrote:
16 Feb 2023, 19:51
These plants are typically not just for 'repairing' tanks but also for refurbishing and modernizing tanks from Soviet storage.
Per the latest (Feb. '23) edition of The Military Balance, Russia has 2,070 MBTs in service (~2,300 with those of the DPR/LPR), including damaged vehicles.
There are no reliable figures about strengths and losses right now especially as it is used as propaganda. Same thing with personnel casualties.

Russian tank production capacity is around 400 main battle tanks per year, for own use and the export market. I posted UVZ annual report snippets a few months ago. However in wartime the defense budget is 8-9% GDP instead of 3% GDP and the Russians have been trying to increase their production and refurbishment.

The 103rd Tank repair plant got an order to modernize 800 T-62 to T-62M Standard. There are also large scale T-90M, T-72B3 and possibly(?) T-80BV orders. Refurbishment and modernization is low cost compared to producing T-90Ms from scratch. It is likely that their production rate right now is much higher than in peacetime.

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

#634

Post by Cult Icon » 17 Feb 2023, 05:51

KDF33 wrote:
17 Feb 2023, 03:14
They were much higher during Ukraine's successful counteroffensives of September - October, or during the initial phase of the invasion last winter. Since Russia renewed major offensive operations over the last few weeks, their MBT losses haven't significantly increased.
You seem to be getting most of your content from the Western media.

Russia has not renewed major offensive operations at all. They have conducted some minor preliminary operations while Wagner maintains pressure in the Bakhmut battle.

Russian army forces have been on the defensive on the Svatove-Kremmina Axis since October 2022 (and Ukraine on the offensive) and only in early-mid Jan 2023 has the Russians started becoming take the offensive, and in a very conservative and low level way. They have been on the defensive in the South (K and Z-Oblasts), and opened up minor offensive operations over the past 3 weeks.

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

#635

Post by KDF33 » 17 Feb 2023, 06:22

Cult Icon wrote:
17 Feb 2023, 05:36
There are no reliable figures about strengths and losses right now especially as it is used as propaganda. Same thing with personnel casualties.
Well, Oryx has photographic evidence of 1,733 Russian MBT losses, of which 1,653 are irretrievable (i.e. destroyed, abandoned or captured). At the time of the NATO summit, less than a month ago, there were also leaks that U.S. intelligence estimated that Russia had lost 2,000 MBTs since the beginning of hostilities.

Per the IISS, at the time of the invasion last year Russia and its DPR/LPR proxies had ~3,800 MBTs in active service. Per their latest assessment they are now down to ~2,300. That seems roughly in line with the aforementioned datapoints on their losses, providing for limited new production / de-mothballing.
Russian tank production capacity is around 400 main battle tanks per year, for own use and the export market. I posted UVZ annual report snippets a few months ago.
Could you repost it? My understanding was that Russia's pre-war annual output amounted to ~250 MBTs.
However in wartime the defense budget is 8-9% GDP instead of 3% GDP and the Russians have been trying to increase their production and refurbishment.
This is true, but Russia's mobilization happened quite late in the year. For instance, Putin only formed an economic and industrial coordination council to facilitate the provision of military materiel on October 21. For most of the year, the Russian government appears to have treated the 'Special Military Operation' as a short-term endeavor.
The 103rd Tank repair plant got an order to modernize 800 T-62 to T-62M Standard.
This is an unfounded rumor. The order is for the refurbishment and modernization of 800 'armored vehicles', of which an unknown number is made up of T-62s. Note that we learned of this order also in... October.
It is likely that their production rate right now is much higher than in peacetime.
I'd say it's likely scaling up, but mobilization measures were delayed for so long that I doubt it changes the picture for Russia's current tank fleet.

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

#636

Post by KDF33 » 17 Feb 2023, 06:41

Cult Icon wrote:
17 Feb 2023, 05:51
You seem to be getting most of your content from the Western media.
Yes, that is correct.
Russia has not renewed major offensive operations at all. They have conducted some minor preliminary operations while Wagner maintains pressure in the Bakhmut battle.

Russian army forces have been on the defensive on the Svatove-Kremmina Axis since October 2022 (and Ukraine on the offensive)
Right now, Russia is attacking along the following axes:

1. Svatove
2. Kreminna
3. Bakhmut
4. Avdiivka
5. Vuhledar

See here, for instance.
and only in early-mid Jan 2023 has the Russians started becoming take the offensive
Yes, as I said: "over the last few weeks".
and in a very conservative and low level way.
Beyond their small gains, which might indicate a lack of results more than a lack of effort, what evidence is there that the Russian offensives are 'limited'?
They have been on the defensive in the South (K and Z-Oblasts)
Well, Kherson Oblast is a completely static front by now, bisected by the Dnipro.

Along the ~600-km-long front running from Dvorichna to Vasylivka, the Russians are currently on the offensive.

I have circled in black where the Russians are currently attacking:

Image

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

#637

Post by Cult Icon » 17 Feb 2023, 06:49

This 'activity' that you post on the map is a daily occurrence for the war. The arrows are misleading. When a few dozen casualties happen in the entire Donbass per day for months the arrows are still there.

You seem to be confusing the war in Ukraine with the bloodbath called World war 2.

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

#638

Post by Cult Icon » 17 Feb 2023, 06:57

KDF33 wrote:
17 Feb 2023, 06:22
Well, Oryx has photographic evidence of

Per Oryx, Lost Amour Etc I consider these accounts unreliable and propaganda.

There is no reason to use bad data and try to form an 'idea' as to how many tanks there are on both sides.

Nobody knows. Maybe after the war historians will get good data and we will know the real numbers. But certainly not now.

I would be content with generalities instead of false precision.

For instance: It looks like the Russians/Ukrainians are trying to accumulate armor.

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

#639

Post by KDF33 » 17 Feb 2023, 07:02

Cult Icon wrote:
17 Feb 2023, 06:49
This 'activity' that you post on the map is a daily occurrence for the war. The arrows are misleading. When a few dozen casualties happen in the entire Donbass per day for months the arrows are still there.
I'm not basing my claim on the arrows. The arrows don't represent current offensives on this map, but forward movement that previously occurred.

I've basing my claim on current reports. See, for instance, here.
Per Oryx, Lost Amour Etc I consider these accounts unreliable and propaganda.
Why?
There is no reason to use bad data and try to form an 'idea' as to how many tanks there are on both sides.
Why not? I'm sure Western intelligence agencies are currently working on such assessments.

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

#640

Post by KDF33 » 17 Feb 2023, 07:05

Cult Icon wrote:
17 Feb 2023, 06:57
I would be content with generalities instead of false precision.

For instance: It looks like the Russians/Ukrainians are trying to accumulate armor.
Well, obviously a complete degree of precision is impossible.

The IISS estimates that Russia has ~2,300 MBTs and Ukraine ~1,000. The real numbers might be ~2,500 and ~900, for all we know. But the rough, ballpark figure seems reasonable on the basis of currently known and estimated losses and resupply.

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

#641

Post by Cult Icon » 17 Feb 2023, 07:20

KDF33 wrote:
17 Feb 2023, 07:02

I'm not basing my claim on the arrows. The arrows don't represent current offensives on this map, but forward movement that previously occurred.
I should have said, "black circles". And you have not circled enough areas :lol:

I have read the majority of ISW reports since Feb 24th.

There are trivial back and forth actions that occur every single day, reported by both Ukrainian and Russian sources for months.

This war is very tactically and operationally, and strategically different from WW2.

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

#642

Post by ljadw » 17 Feb 2023, 09:46

Tom Peters wrote:
17 Feb 2023, 04:49
ljadw wrote:
16 Feb 2023, 14:16
''Poor '' showing of RU tanks in UK or Moscow parade marches do not prove that the T-14 is not good .
Its not a glowing endorsement of them being good either.

Mad Dog
No one said that they were ''good '',good being a meaningless notion .
There are for the moment no T 14 tanks operating in Ukraine and the performances of a tank do not depend on the technology of the tank .

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

#643

Post by Gooner1 » 17 Feb 2023, 14:44

KDF33 wrote:
17 Feb 2023, 07:02
Per Oryx, Lost Amour Etc I consider these accounts unreliable and propaganda.
Why?
Pure copium from a fragile eggshell mind most probably.

The Oryx people are unlikely to be infallible, most likely they understate the losses in all cases, particularly when it comes to artillery.

One captured document from one of the Russian Guards tank brigades, IIRC, using a unique T-80 type revealed their losses to be about 20% more than that recorded by Oryx. That might be a useful 'rule of thumb' multiplier.
OTOH the Russian tanks recorded by Oryx as just damaged (80) or abandoned (86) may also have been recovered and repaired and put back into service. Captures of Ukrainian tanks (143) may also have been put into Russian service.

Oryx has recently posted that he is daring anyone to find duplicates in their database
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 9178288128

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

#644

Post by Cult Icon » 19 Feb 2023, 06:42

https://ria.ru/20230207/tanki-1850169190.html

"Last year, the enterprises of the Russian defense complex several times increased the production of guided artillery shells "Krasnopol", which should become one of the means of effective destruction of Western tanks, the source told RIA Novosti."

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

#645

Post by Aida1 » 19 Feb 2023, 09:48

ljadw wrote:
17 Feb 2023, 09:46
Tom Peters wrote:
17 Feb 2023, 04:49
ljadw wrote:
16 Feb 2023, 14:16
''Poor '' showing of RU tanks in UK or Moscow parade marches do not prove that the T-14 is not good .
Its not a glowing endorsement of them being good either.

Mad Dog
No one said that they were ''good '',good being a meaningless notion .
There are for the moment no T 14 tanks operating in Ukraine and the performances of a tank do not depend on the technology of the tank .
Makes no sense at all. :roll: :roll:

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