The end of tanks as we know it?

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Gooner1
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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

Post by Gooner1 » 26 May 2023 23:02


Peter89
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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

Post by Peter89 » 27 May 2023 08:28

Cult Icon wrote:
26 May 2023 22:51
Peter89 wrote:
04 May 2023 16:11


This is just one of those stuffs that makes me highly sceptical about the true nature of this unnatural war.
IIRC US has around 5500 Abrams last I checked.

Overall the West appears to just want to inflict 'damage' on Russian forces without compromising their own capabilities significantly.

In the area of munitions the US is of total failure. Overall they are content with keeping Ukraine as a melting ice-cube.

We know from studying WW2 that tanks alone are low value and easily lost.

The real expense is the large organization (service and support) and large number of trained specialists that are needed to synergize the use of the tank. The stark difference between the combat value of the Panzer Brigade 1944 vs a Panzer division or a Soviet tank corps of 1942 vs a Soviet Mech. Corps of 1945.

The Battalion Tactical Group has turned into the 2022 version of the Panzer Brigade 1944. Building a functional division takes up to two years in peacetime.., which is what Russia is currently focused on doing.

Giving Ukraine ultra-tanks with primitive organization will simply result in them being abandoned in the field.
In any case, I doubt that this war can be decided on the field of battle. Or in economy. The West seems to be pouring into Ukraine just enough supplies to make things going. I think that Russia is also trying to avoid a real war because that would be too costly. The defenses are all set up on both sides in a manner that a military victory is unlikely unless Russia mobilizes much more than she already had and make more diplomatic concessions. Ukraine is in ruins and Russia began to lose her grip on Central Asia, which now becomes a fiefdom of China.

The time has come for a political solution.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

Post by Cult Icon » 27 May 2023 17:03

Peter89 wrote:
27 May 2023 08:28

In any case, I doubt that this war can be decided on the field of battle. Or in economy. The West seems to be pouring into Ukraine just enough supplies to make things going. I think that Russia is also trying to avoid a real war because that would be too costly. The defenses are all set up on both sides in a manner that a military victory is unlikely unless Russia mobilizes much more than she already had and make more diplomatic concessions. Ukraine is in ruins and Russia began to lose her grip on Central Asia, which now becomes a fiefdom of China.

The time has come for a political solution.
The logistics and economy are not favorable for Ukraine. They have extreme poverty and ruin right now, 35% + unemployment is typically the cause of political revolution in history..

Ukraine was supposed to run out of S-300 Anti-aircraft missiles right now, leading to a collapse of 89% of their air defense units. Their ammunition supply is also bad.

It looks like the 'Korea' solution is the only realistic option right now for peace. Neither side is capable of winning in the near or medium term.

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

Post by Peter89 » 27 May 2023 18:12

Cult Icon wrote:
27 May 2023 17:03
Peter89 wrote:
27 May 2023 08:28

In any case, I doubt that this war can be decided on the field of battle. Or in economy. The West seems to be pouring into Ukraine just enough supplies to make things going. I think that Russia is also trying to avoid a real war because that would be too costly. The defenses are all set up on both sides in a manner that a military victory is unlikely unless Russia mobilizes much more than she already had and make more diplomatic concessions. Ukraine is in ruins and Russia began to lose her grip on Central Asia, which now becomes a fiefdom of China.

The time has come for a political solution.
The logistics and economy are not favorable for Ukraine. They have extreme poverty and ruin right now, 35% + unemployment is typically the cause of political revolution in history..

Ukraine was supposed to run out of S-300 Anti-aircraft missiles right now, leading to a collapse of 89% of their air defense units. Their ammunition supply is also bad.

It looks like the 'Korea' solution is the only realistic option right now for peace. Neither side is capable of winning in the near or medium term.
Ukraine would have collapsed long ago if they didn't receive help from the west. In this sense they do not stand alone. Unemployment is also kinda irrelevant as a significant portion of their population fled the country - I assume they'll have problems with finding people capable and willing to work.

Yes, a Korea solution is rather probable. I think Kissinger was right when he said that Ukraine has to let go territories and in exchange it has to be taken into the NATO.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

Post by ljadw » 27 May 2023 19:50

Peter89 wrote:
27 May 2023 18:12
Cult Icon wrote:
27 May 2023 17:03
Peter89 wrote:
27 May 2023 08:28

In any case, I doubt that this war can be decided on the field of battle. Or in economy. The West seems to be pouring into Ukraine just enough supplies to make things going. I think that Russia is also trying to avoid a real war because that would be too costly. The defenses are all set up on both sides in a manner that a military victory is unlikely unless Russia mobilizes much more than she already had and make more diplomatic concessions. Ukraine is in ruins and Russia began to lose her grip on Central Asia, which now becomes a fiefdom of China.

The time has come for a political solution.
The logistics and economy are not favorable for Ukraine. They have extreme poverty and ruin right now, 35% + unemployment is typically the cause of political revolution in history..

Ukraine was supposed to run out of S-300 Anti-aircraft missiles right now, leading to a collapse of 89% of their air defense units. Their ammunition supply is also bad.

It looks like the 'Korea' solution is the only realistic option right now for peace. Neither side is capable of winning in the near or medium term.
Ukraine would have collapsed long ago if they didn't receive help from the west. In this sense they do not stand alone. Unemployment is also kinda irrelevant as a significant portion of their population fled the country - I assume they'll have problems with finding people capable and willing to work.

Yes, a Korea solution is rather probable. I think Kissinger was right when he said that Ukraine has to let go territories and in exchange it has to be taken into the NATO.
There is no proof that Ukraine (its army ? ,its government ? ) would have collapsed without help from the West .

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

Post by OpanaPointer » 27 May 2023 20:09

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

Post by Cult Icon » 28 May 2023 13:48

Peter89 wrote:
27 May 2023 18:12
Yes, a Korea solution is rather probable. I think Kissinger was right when he said that Ukraine has to let go territories and in exchange it has to be taken into the NATO.
The West is funding the functioning of their state.

Russia has still not declared war on Ukraine or done a second round of mobilization which is telling.

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

Post by Cult Icon » 01 Jun 2023 23:26

Current production rate claimed to be 120 tanks a month. Prior to this Putin/Medvedev said that this year they would produce 1500-1400 tanks.

https://translated.turbopages.org/proxy ... -2023-godu

"The Security Council announced the release of more than 600 tanks in Russia in 2023"

In 2023, the Russian industry produced more than 600 tanks. This was stated on June 1 by Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev during his visit to the Prudboy combined-arms training ground in the Volgograd region.


https://www-gazeta-ru.translate.goog/ar ... x_tr_hl=en

This coincides with a claimed increase of Russian military personnel by 134,000 in 5 months.

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

Post by Tom Peters » 02 Jun 2023 20:32

Cult Icon wrote:
01 Jun 2023 23:26
Current production rate claimed to be 120 tanks a month. Prior to this Putin/Medvedev said that this year they would produce 1500-1400 tanks.

https://translated.turbopages.org/proxy ... -2023-godu

"The Security Council announced the release of more than 600 tanks in Russia in 2023"

In 2023, the Russian industry produced more than 600 tanks. This was stated on June 1 by Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev during his visit to the Prudboy combined-arms training ground in the Volgograd region.


https://www-gazeta-ru.translate.goog/ar ... x_tr_hl=en

This coincides with a claimed increase of Russian military personnel by 134,000 in 5 months.
More RU claims.

How about this for a more sober assessment ?

https://wavellroom.com/2023/05/01/1500- ... ic%20year).

- Most recently, the 2020 Report of the Board Session of the Russian MOD stated ‘220 tanks and armoured vehicles were delivered in that year (a pandemic year).

- Also according to the MOD, more than 240 modern and upgraded T-72B3M, T-80BVM and T-90M tanks would be received by the Russian Army in 2021, the last year before the invasion. However, Voennoye Obozreniye (Military Review) reported a lower figure of 170 modern tanks (T-90Ms, T-80BVMs and T-72B3s) for the same year

-In sum, it might be fair to say UVZ (and to a lesser extent the plant at Omsk, which specialises in the T-80) were producing or upgrading around 100 tanks per year from 2012 onwards, but this effort was ramped up to closer to 200 in the last two years before the invasion.

So to think the RU can increase production by 7-8 fold looks unrealistic.

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

Post by Cult Icon » 05 Jun 2023 20:20

These videos are speculated to be the first abandoned Leopard 2 and AMX-10 RCs of the war

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

Post by Gooner1 » 05 Jun 2023 21:41

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

Post by Cult Icon » 09 Jun 2023 13:55

The losses of American and German AFVs have begun. Destroyed Leopard 2s and Bradleys.

The performance of Ukraine in the first 5 days of the offensive has been terrible so far. They are still stuck in front of the first echelon of Russian defense:

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_3671904

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video

https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=video-1235 ... 39_3671915

footage of soldiers walking around destroyed Leopard 2s has also appeared

Also destruction of AFVs by KA-52 helicopter gunships using 'whirlwind' rockets

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K121_Vikhr

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

Post by Cult Icon » 09 Jun 2023 14:15

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" A convoy of about 10 tanks, armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles advanced on Russian positions at the Rabotino-Verbovoye line from the direction of Malaya Tokmachka, but was stopped by fire from the Russian Armed Forces."

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

Post by Cult Icon » 09 Jun 2023 17:01

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Footage of the destruction of an M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA in an abandoned Ukrainian convoy.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_3672607

knocked out Leopard 2

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abandoned leopard 2 with mineroller

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Re: The end of tanks as we know it?

Post by Tom Peters » 09 Jun 2023 17:25

Mines are the big winner here. If the UKR cant clear the fields under fire they wont make much progress.

In the last pic, I think thats a T-64, not a L2. Looks like separate roller wheels.

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